Monday, May 17, 2010

Game 38 Recap

1. After Phil Hughes sat the Sox down in order in the first, the Yankees made it abundantly clear that this start would be nothing like Daisuke Matsuzka's last one. Before Dice-K could blink, the Bombers had loaded the bases with two singles by Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner and a walk to Mark Teixiera. A-Rod battled through a seven pitch at bat consisting of nothing by fastballs and after fouling two off, finally found one he liked. He served it into right center for a single and put the Yankees up 2-0.

Robinson Cano swung at the first pitch he saw and hit a deep, looping line drive to left. Jeremy Hermida went back after it but couldn't make the play and the ball caromed off the wall and back into the field. If nobody was on base, Cano could have easily made it to second, but A-Rod had to hold up to see if the ball was caught and was nearly passed by Cano. It went in the books as a RBI single.

Still with no one out, Francisco Cervelli lined a double into the gap in right center that scored A-Rod. Cano was sent home but a strong throw from Darnell McDonald and a solid block of the plate by Victor Martinez gave the Sox their first out of the inning. However, Cervelli advanced to third base on the play and scored on a sac fly by Marcus Thames. Add all of that up and the Yanks were ahead 5-0 after the first inning.

2. Kevin Youkilis led off the top of the second with a single, advanced to second on a wild pitch and scored on a two out single by Adrian Beltre, cutting the Yanks lead to 5-1.

3. The Yanks got that run back in the third. Brett Gardner worked a two out walk and Mark Teixeira drove him in with a double that looked like a home run off the bat. McDonald was fooled too as he got to the ball in time but overran it slightly and it hit off of his forearm as he neared the wall. 6-1 Yanks.

4. David Ortiz, who has now driven in seven runs in his past four games, lifted a sky high home run to the mezzanine level in right during the fourth inning that made it 6-2.

5. Phil Hughes got two easy outs to begin the fifth inning but the final out was much more elusive. Marco Scutaro fell behind 1-2, but fouled back three straight pitches before punching a single back up the middle. Dustin Pedroia also fell behind 1-2 before fouling off four in a row, taking a ball and serving a double to left. J.D. Drew came to the plate with men on second and third, promptly fell behind 0-2 but fought back and eventually hooked a ball around the right field foul pole to bring the Sox right back in it. 6-5 Yankees.

6. Cervelli flipped a two out single to center in the fifth and was driven in on a double by Thames. 7-5 Yanks.

7. Boone Logan began the sixth inning for the Yanks and the first thing he did was fall behind Victor Martinez 3-0. VMart took one for a strike but then mashed a home run to left field to bring the Sox within one run.

8. After pitching a scoreless seventh, Chan Ho Park came back on for the 8th and allowed the Sox to complete an improbable comeback. Drew led off with a single to right and the Fackin' Youkstah drilled a two run home run to left field to put the Sox ahead 8-7. Victor Martinez followed with another solo shot (this on over the Yanks' bullpen in right) and just like that, the Yankees were trailing by two runs with only six outs left to use up and bottom third of their line up due up.

9
. Juan Miranda pinch hit in the eighth inning and brought the tying run to the plate when he worked a walk but Daniel Bard struck out Derek Jeter to end the frame.

Gardner led off the ninth inning with a slicing double just out of the reach of McDonald and Teixeira got the crowd going with a long, loud out on the warning track. Jonathan Papelbon didn't get off so easy with A-Rod. Alex was waiting for a fastball on the first pitch and absolutely blasted a homer into the Red Sox bullpen.

Cano flew out to deeeeep center and Papelbon hit Cervelli on the elbow with a pitch. Knowing that he was the only catcher available, Frankie was none too please, but he took his base without much of a scene. Then, like A-Rod, Marcus Thames was ready for a first pitch fastball and smashed it into the right field seats to give the Yankees their first walkoff win of the year. Final score: Yankees 11, Red Sox 9.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs
  • Hughes was just one strike away three different times from escaping the fifth inning with a four run lead with a chance to throw another frame. Instead, he threw a combined 22 pitches to Scutaro, Pedroia and Drew and was chased from the game right then and there. he was still in line for the win until CHoP let the lead slip away in the 8th.

  • Phil just didn't have his best stuff tonight, as only 5 of his 103 pitches were swinging strikes. His cutter was working to some extent but it came back to bite him. He threw 30 of them - 24 for strikes - but two of them left the park off the bats of Ortiz and Drew.

  • PitchFX had Hughes throwing 21 two-seam fastballs, but I think they were actually four-seamers with too much arm-side run that fouled up the classification since Hughes doesn't throw a two-seamer, as far as I know. If so, it's an indication that his mechanics were slightly askew, and as Al Leiter likes to say, he wasn't "getting on top of his fastball" enough.

  • With Victor Martinez due up in the 6th inning, Girardi went to Boone Logan, which was pretty odd considering that Martinez has been great against lefties this year and terrible against righties (and that Boone Logan sucks). Not to put too much stock in small sample size splits, but for switch hitters, since they have two different swings, it seems like they are more significant. That could have been a good enough reason to go to Chan Ho Park in the sixth instead of the seventh, but instead VMart jacked one off of Logan.

  • Neither Joba Chamberlain nor David Robertson were available tonight, and that certainly led Joe Girardi to try to stretch two innings out of Park in his first appearance off of the DL. During his second inning is when the wheels really came off and Youk and Martinez hit back to back homers.

  • Evening out some of the bad luck from his start in Detroit, Javy Vazquez picked up the win for facing one batter in the 9th.

  • The double in the first inning brought Francisco Cervelli up to an unthinkable 11 for 14 with runners in scoring position on the season. That would be incredible for Albert Puljos, let alone a guy who was a below average hitter when he was in AA just a year ago.

  • In the fifth inning, Phil Hughes threw a fastball to Youk inside and at knee level that sent him to the dirt in an effort to dodge it and drew a loud applause from the crowd.

  • A.J. Burnett timed the walkoff pie perfectly. Thames was just beginning his interview with Kim Jones and just as he started to answer her first question, got slammed.

  • I like Thames significantly more than I did before this game started. Funny how those things work.

  • This was your typical Yankees-Red Sox game, checking in at 3:47 with 346 pitches thrown.
This had the potential to be a terribly frustrating loss but instead it was a thrilling victory. Matt was there, in the batter's eye seats and hopefully he'll have a little bit to share about his experience tomorrow. This mini-series should wrap up tomorrow at 7:05, but there is a chance that the weather may not cooperate.

Game 38: Adjust

After the first two Yankees vs. Red Sox series of this year have taken place at Fenway, the Bombers finally welcome the Sawx to the Bronx for a quick two game set. Despite having played all six games in Boston, the Yankees took both series 2-1 and have now won 13 of the 16 times the two teams have met, dating back to last August.

The Red Sox send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the hill tonight. After getting a late start to the season due to a stint on the DL, Dice-K began with two poor starts. However, his most recent outing was an excellent one. Through two games he had given up 18 baserunners and 12 runs in 10 innings, but was downright dominant last Tuesday against the Blue Jays.

Matsuzka worked though seven one-run innings in Fenway and allowed just three hits and struck out nine without walking a single batter. Considering that he has walked more than four batters per nine innings since he's been in the Majors, the lack of a free pass was especially notable; it was only the seventh time in his MLB career he's been able to avoid giving away a base on balls. It's unlikely that he'll be able to duplicate the feat against the Yankees, who are fourth in the MLB in walks, but his last start at least demonstrated what he's capable of when things are going right.

Phil Hughes will toe the rubber for the Yanks this evening. Not only is he off to the best start out of any Yankee pitcher, he has the lowest ERA of any qualifying pitcher in the American League. Hughes won't keep a 1.38 ERA all season - he's going to have some rough outings sooner or later - but so far this year it's been an absolute thrill to watch him excel as a starting pitcher. Hitters just can't seem to square up with either his four-seam or cut fastball and he keeps them off-balance by dropping in a curveball about one in every eight pitches.

Two Fridays ago at Fenway, Hughes held the Sox to two runs over seven innings. He struck out seven, allowed seven hits and walked one en route to picking up his fourth win of the season. The incredible part about that is the fact that it's only Hughes' 5th best start in six times out.

As Mike from RAB pointed out earlier today, facing the Red Sox for the second time will be the true test for Hughes. The first time, he threw fewer and fewer four-seamers each time through the order, instead mixing in more and more cutters and curves as he went along. Perhaps the Red Sox have identified that tendency and will be expecting it. Or perhaps Phil and Frankie Cervelli know that they will be expecting it and will alter the game plan accordingly. It's all about making adjustments and whoever out-thinks the opponent will have a distinct advantage tonight.

Adjustments, they remain, but not just for the purpose of adaption,
Cause that's natural, I'm trying to stay alert to actions,
Surroundings, became more dangerous,
The more familiar I've became with strangers.
[Nick Johnson update: Johnson will undergo surgery on his wrist
(probably tomorrow)
and be out four to six weeks. If that's what it turns out to be, that's not all that bad, but to make a massive over-generalization, the guys who tend to get hurt all the time don't usually heal up very fast. I'd be pleasantly surprised if he was back before the Fourth of July.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: Jorge Posada gets the night off after taking a foul tip off of his foot yesterday and Frankie Cervelli pulls catching duty. A-Rod is DHing as Ramiro Pena plays 3rd. Nick Swisher is out of the lineup since Matsuzaka is right handed, so Brett Gardner will be flanked by Marcus Thames and Randy Winn in the outfield corners. One through five in the line up looks pretty good, but it goes downhill fast after that. Good luck Phil, you probably won't have much of a margin for error.
Jeter SS
Gardner CF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Cano 2B
Cervelli C
Thames RF
Winn LF
Pena 3B
Scutaro SS
Pedroia 2B
Drew RF
Youkilis 1B
Martinez C
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Hermida LF
McDonald CF

Monday Afternoon Linkdown

Yesterday would have been Billy Martin's 82nd birthday. Even if he didn't die in a car crash back in '89, you get the feeling he wouldn't have made it this far. Some people just live too hard to see their 80's.
Yankees Magazine is 30 years old and Martin was the first person to grace the cover once it switched from a newspaper to a magazine. Does anyone actually buy these at the Stadium? They sold 250,000 of them last year so I'm guessing some people do.

The Reds signed Cuban outfielder Felix Perez, a player who the Yankees were in discussions with last year. The Yanks eventually found out that he wasn't 20 years old, as he had claimed, and steered clear. The MLB suspended Perez for a year for lying about his age but he's eligible again and headed for a Reds' minor league affiliate somewhere in the near future.

Marc Carig took a look at Brett Gardner's patient and effective approach and shows that he's basically the anti-Vlad Guererro. The article is complete with quotes Carig got from Kevin Long and stats fetched from FanGraphs. Not many writers combine analysis and reporting like that, but Marc does (and does it well).

If you've read our interview with The Yankeeist, you know why Matt and I write, but what about Craig Calcaterra? He does it for the ladies, of course.

Via Tango, ESPN stats guy Mark Simon ranks the most valuable players of the Yankees-Red Sox series since 1995 by WPA. Would it surprise you if the Youkstah came in above David Ortiz? How about Paul O'Neill still being second among Yankee hitters and Derek Jeter coming in at 13th?

According to MLBTR, Javier Vazquez is still a Type-A Free Agent, but just barely.

R.J. Anderson at FanGraphs investigates Mark Teixeira's slow start and fingers the prime suspect: a low BABIP. Same as last year.

Aaron Gleeman celebrates the Twins long-awaited victory over the Yankees and examines just how poorly the Twinkies have faired against the Yanks - as opposed to basically every other team in the AL - in the Ron Gardenhire era.

Justin Sablich of the New York Times finds that you can make a team out of the players the Yankees have parted ways with in the past few years. It would totally suck, but you could do it.
Three of the guys in that bullpen, Edwar Ramirez, Brian Bruney and Chad Gaudin were all released from their teams over the weekend, so if you want to starting putting that squad together, now might be a good time.

Sean from Pending Pinstripes looks at LSU pitcher Anthony Ranaudo, a high risk, high upside arm in this year's draft, as a possible target for the Yanks.

Tyler Kepner revisits the deal that very nearly made George Steinbrenner the owner of the Indians back in December of 1971.

The Trenton Thunder have won 10 straight. Boom!

Yesterday's grand slam means that Mariano Rivera will be forever tied with Eric Gagne for the longest streak without blowing a save at home (unless of course he rips off 52 more before he retires, which isn't totally inconceivable (okay, yeah it is)).

The Yankess just donated a display with seven World Series rings to the Hall of Fame. Also, May 22nd and 23rd is World Series Weekend in Cooperstown. The trophy will be there and they'll be giving a special "Yankee-centric" tour of the museum.

Diane Firstman from Bronx Banter talks triples.

Baseball-Reference.com now has WAR.

Sawx reliever Ramon Ramirez walked in the winning run against the Tigers. That video never gets old.

Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs teaches the lesson of Pat Burrell. No, it doesn't have anything to do with sleeping with a porn star.


It's that time of year. Over at Deadspin, Drew Magary delivers an unsolicited address to the class of 2010. It's good but, 2008 remains the best. An excerpt:.
"You think you’re gonna make a difference? You got some nerve, asshole. You’re just part of another class going through the same routine as the class before you. You’re no different. You’re just as full of douchebags and shitheads as any other class. In fact, given the rising popularity of lacrosse, your class is probably even worse. The rest of us eventually had our dreams crushed by the cruel realties of the world. I see no reason not to burst your bubble right here and now. Heed these words, then fall in line like the rest of us."
Here's 2009's as well.
Back with the preview in a few.

Interview With The Yankeeist

We'll have a full batch of links coming up in a little while, but we wanted to direct your attention towards an interview that Larry from The Yankeeist conducted with Matt and me.

We've linked to the excellent Q&A's Larry has done with Was Watching, RAB, Bronx Banter, The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, and TYU and we are extremely pleased that he was interested enough in our blog to ask some really thoughtful and thought-provoking questions of us.

The interview runs over 7,000 words, so it's long enough that you might want to print it out, but we think there is a lot of interesting stuff in there. If you want to know more about the background of the blog or where Matt and I are coming from, please check it out.

Do They Really Need To Shuffle The Rotation?

As we mentioned in this morning's news and notes, the Yankees have opted to skip Javier Vazquez once again, pushing him back to start Friday night's Subway Series opener at Citi Field.

Joel Sherman does an excellent job of laying out the Yankees reasoning for all of this, and it's sound enough. But, there are a number of things I don't like about this:
  • For the all the fuss the Yankees made about limiting the work loads of Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte in the wake of last season, and with concerns about Phil Hughes hitting an innings cap late in the year, they're completely punting on an opportunity to give all four pitchers an extra day of rest. Thanks to the doubleheader last week, Vazquez could have taken his regular turn tonight and everyone else could have had an extra day off.

  • The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. If Sherman's right, the Yankees are trying to line up starters for a series that's taking place two weeks from now. Who the hell knows what will happen between now and then. Remember last week when a new Yankee was getting hurt everyday? If that happens once between now and then, or if there's another rainout, this whole plan goes to pot. Why not try to line up the post-season rotation now while we're at it?

  • Furthermore, as we mentioned in the news and notes this morning, the team seems prepared to use Vazquez as a long reliever over the next few days. If they do, they jeopardize his ability to take the ball Friday, and then we have to go through this whole exercise once again of slotting Vazquez back into the rotation and transitioning Sergio Mitre back into the bullpen.

  • This is the second time Vazquez has been shuffled around (really the third if you count him being pushed a back an extra two days in Detroit - one due to the Pettitte injury, the other due to the rainout), and both times one of the reasons cited has been getting Vazquez a start in an NL park so he can hit. I'm sorry, I'm not buying that. It's just not that important. Ditto for Sabathia. Yes these guys can hit a bit for pitchers, but where does that rank on the scale of importance as far as determining the rotation? Fifth? Tenth?

  • I also think the Yankees are showing the Red Sox way too much respect at this point. I'm not writing them off, not at all. But as this stage in the season, there's no need to shuffle the rotation to play match ups against anyone, let alone a team that's had the Sox' struggles so far. I was ok with the team lining up their three best starters in Fenway late last August when it was officially pennant race time. This, however, seems a little premature.

  • To that end, something's rotten about skipping Vazquez here. He had a very good start in Detroit last week. Now, not only are they risking that momentum by putting him on the shelf for a week, but they're having him avoid the Sox for the second time in ten days, and they're ensuring he doesn't pitch in front of a potentially hostile Yankee Stadium crowd. This doesn't sit right with me. It sounds far too much like the things Ed Whitson said happened late in his Yankee career, and there are already far too many fans already trying to draw as many parallels as they can between Javy and Eddie Lee.

All that said, I'm going to the game tonight (Batter's Eye seats no less), and I'm very excited to watch Hughes pitch. I just hope the plans for the rest of the rotation work out over the next couple weeks.

Weekend News And Notes

Good morning Fackers. How was your weekend? Ours was pretty damn good. Nice victories on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Word is Jay had a helluva party Saturday, complete with a wide variety of grillable meats and a now empty keg. I, on the other hand, opted for BBQ Saturday night. It was delicious, and then at long last I finally saw Pearl Jam in concert. It was one of the best shows I've ever been to.

Of course, if you were around these parts last year, you may remember that anytime I talk about Pearl Jam, disaster follows. So of course, the Yankees had a meltdown in the eighth inning yesterday. By that time I was out to dinner with the family, celebrating my youngest brother's 20th birthday, so I was only getting updates via phone. Since 2007 Joba is Back Baby!, I'm sure he had nothing to do with things falling apart. It can only be the bad karma brought on by me going to see that band. Sorry about that. On to the news and notes:
Today marks the twelfth anniversary of David Wells' Sunday afternoon perfect game against Twins. As chance would have it, the Twins were at Yankee Stadium yesterday, for a Sunday afternoon game, and Boomer was in the house doing the game for TBS. Unfortunately, things didn't work out quite so well for the home team this time. Oddly enough, the Twins also played a Sunday afternoon game in the Bronx on May 17th last year, and Wells was covering that game for TBS as well.

Speaking of starting pitchers, after Saturday's game Joe Girardi laid out the Yankees' rotation for the remainder of the week. Phil Hughes gets the ball tonight; Javier Vazquez is getting skipped again, this time pushed back to Friday night at Citi Field. We'll have a little more on this in our next post.

As we mentioned in yesterday's preview, Chan Ho Park is ready to return. It still makes no sense to me why he wasn't activated for yesterday's game, and the fact that he wasn't seems to indicate that it'll been Ivan Nova going to Scranton to make room for him, rather than Boone Logan.

That move doesn't add up to me either, as it will leave the Yankees without a longman for the rest of this week, though I suppose we could see Javy in relief tonight or tomorrow. That, in turn, could jeopardize his start for Friday, depending upon how much is needed from him. Which would mean another spot start for Sergio Mitre, who would once again be unable to return the longman role for a few days. All this just to keep Boone Logan around?

In other injury news, Nick Swisher remains day-to-day with a sore left bicep. It bothers him most when batting left-handed. On Saturday, he took a right handed at bat against a right handed pitcher, the first time he'd done that against a non-knuckleballer. He was held out of yesterday's line up against a right handed pitcher, but came on to pinch hit against lefty Brian Duensing in the eighth. When Ron Gardenhire pulled Duensing in favor of righty Matt Guerrier, Swish was immediately lifted for Juan Miranda. This will merit watching as the week unfolds.

Curtis Granderson ran at about 75 to 80 percent on Saturday and took batting practice yesterday, so he appears to be progressing well in recovering from his pulled groin.

In less pleasant injury news, Nick Johnson may need surgery on his injured wrist. If the cortisone shot he received last weekend doesn't do the trick, he'll go under the knife yet again. Best case scenario the shot works and he's back in three weeks. Worst case, we're looking at surgery and maybe an August return. Cue the indignation at signing the injury prone Johnson! Just remember, if you're going to bemoan his fragility keeping him out of the lineup now, you can't complain that he was slumping when he was healthy. Can't have it both ways.

Speaking of shots, Alfredo Aceves had one as well. The reliever with a bulging disc in his back was given an epidural over the weekend. Both mother and baby are said to be doing well.

Brian Cashman traveled to Scranton Friday to watch Chan Ho Park's rehab appearance. He held court with the media there, and sounded surprisingly callous in talking about releasing the oft injured Christian Garcia. I mean, I don't disagree with you Cash, but jeez, have a heart. The guy's had a rough few years.

In the same session, Cashman described Shane Lindsay, the pitcher who took Garcia's spot, as "a lesser version of Brian Bruney" Yeesh. Color me inspired. Hey, accept no imitations. The real deal is available.

Lastly, Cashman also said the Kevin Russo is going to get the Jerry Hairston Jr treatment, and will be playing all over the diamond in an effort to turn him into a super utility player. This is something I advocated for last summer, so I'm happy about it. Beyond tooting my own horn though, there's value in this. Russo profiles as a useful bench bat. He's not about to usurp any of the Yankee infielders, so making him a capable infielder and outfielder is only going to increase his value. With Ramiro Pena struggling, it could even position him to take the Big League utlity infielder job. There would be concerns about Russo's ability to play short though. Either way, if he's capable of playing all over the diamond, Russo would be a very useful bench piece, with or without Pena on the roster.

Meanwhile, down in Trenton, starter Ryan Pope has been shifted into the depleted bullpen. To take his place in the rotation Hector Noesi has been recalled from Tampa. Noesi was a darkhorse addition to the 40 man roster last offseason, and he's been dominating the Florida State League this year to the tune of a 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 53:6 K:BB over 43 IP.

Tampa can easily absorb the loss of Noesi, since they added starter Graham Stoneburner from Charleston last week. Stoneburner has a 2.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 44:10 K:BB in 39 IP in the Sallie League prior to his promotion. He made his Tampa debut last Thursday, retired the first 15 batters he faced and allowed two runs, three baserunners and fanned seven over six innings.

Back with more in a bit.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Game 37 WPA Chart

That one stung. Kubel's salami resulted in a 59% swing in WPA, which is easily the largest of any single play in a Yankees game so far this year. The Yankees getting the tying run to the plate with no one out and following through with three straight strike outs - the last one looking on Teixeira - was pretty demoralizing as well. However, the Yanks took two out of three from a very good team, and at the end of the day, the series was still a success.

Game 37: Are You Experienced?

The Yankees look to bust out the brooms today as they wrap up their three game set with the Twins before hosting division rivals Boston and Tampa Bay for a pair of two game series this week.

Sergio Mitre gets his second consecutive spot start for the Bombers, the first necessitated by Adam Pettitte's inflamed throwing elbow, this one necessitated by last Tuesday's rainout in Detroit. The sinkerballer didn't do too well in pitching the series opener in Detroit, surrendering four runs, three of them earned, and allowing seven baserunners over four and a third innings, while striking out an uncharacteristically high four batters.

Despite the mediocre performance, Mitre might have been allowed to go a bit deeper into that game if not for stamina issues. After spending the first month plus of the season pitching in relief, and pitching sporadically at that, Mitre wasn't stretched out enough to go more than 65-75 pitches. He was pulled after Johnny Damon deposited his 69th offering of the night into the right field stands.

Mitre will probably be able to go a bit deeper into today's game. If he can't, either due to stamina or ineffectiveness, the Yankee bullpen is well positioned to pick up the slack. Even with longman extraordinaire Alfredo Aceves on the DL, the bullpen still features former starter Ivan Nova, who was impressive in his Major League debut Thursday, as well as the just-activated Chan Ho Park, fresh off of two rehab appearances and capable off going multiple innings if needed. With Javier Vazquez being pushed back to Friday, he could potentially see some relief action in a pinch.

No corresponding move has been announced for yet, but to make room for Park, Boone Logan will most likely be optioned back to Scranton. Logan soaked up the final two innings of yesterday's game, leaving the bullpen even better positioned to handle whatever work comes its way today.

[UPDATE 12:40 PM: According to Joel Sherman, Park will not be activated today, as the Yankees want to keep Ivan Nova on the roster as the longman to back up Mitre. That's all well and good. But what value does an ineffective and unavailable (today at least) Boone Logan offer over Park? I don't get it. Either way, it looks like Nova will be the man to go when Park is activated. If that's so, with Nova gone, Alf on the DL, and Mitre starting today, the Yankees will be without a longman until Mitre gets his rest in. In the meantime, Javier Vazquez will likely be the defacto longman in advance of his start Friday. Lastly, don't forget, today's game is on MY9, not YES.]

For the Twins, righty Nick Blackburn takes to the hill. Blackburn posted uncannily identical seasons in both 2008 and 2009, and is off to a 3-1 start this year despite a 4.76 ERA. FIP and xFIP rate him even more harshly, at 5.92 and 5.21 respectively. Like most Twins starters, Blackburn is awfully stingy with the free passes, giving up just 2.5 per nine this year and 1.9 per nine over his 450 career innings. In four career starts against New York he's posted a 5.89 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over 18.1 IP. He did not appear in last year's ALDS.

During Spring Training, Star-Ledger beat writer Marc Carig took to referring to Mitre as "The Sergio Mitre Experience". The nickname has caught on with the other beat writers and through the blogosphere. So in honor of the Sergio Mitre Experience, today we turn to the Jimi Hendrix Experience. If Mitre can pitch half as well as Jimi played, the Yanks will be sitting pretty today.


If you can just get your mind together
Then come on across to me
We'll hold hands and then we'll watch the sunrise
From the bottom of the sea

But first, are you experienced?
Have you ever been experienced?
Well, I have

[Song Notes: "Are You Experienced?" was the final track on the Jimi Hendrix Experience's debut album, also titled Are You Experienced. The performance above isn't the best in terms of video and sound quality, but it's a fairly rare live performance, includes a few other tunes, and took place in New York. If something a more traditional is a little more your speed, try this one on for size.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Derek Jeter gets a half day off as the DH today. Nick Swisher's sore left bicep bothers him most when swinging left handed, to the point that he batted right handed against a right handed pitcher yesterday. With a righty on the mound today, Swish gets a day off. Marcus Thames takes his place in right field; Randy Winn gets the nod in left. Jorge Posada gets behind the plate for the first time since Thursday.
Derek Jeter DH
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames RF
Randy Winn LF
Ramiro Pena SS

Twins:
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jim Thome DH
Justin Kubel LF
Alexi Casilla SS
Matt Tolbert 3B

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Game 36 WPA Chart

Game 36: The Return

After Damaso Marte coughed up the lead with two outs in the top of the seventh last night, the Yankees got a massive boost from A-Rod's grand slam in the bottom half of the inning. The Bombers have their work cut out for them if they are going to carry any of that momentum over into today, as they'll be facing a resurgent Francisco Liriano.

If it seems like a long time ago that Liriano was tearing up the league and was tagged as the heir apparent to Johan Santana, well, that's because it was. Coming into August of 2006, Liriano had compiled a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA over 121 innings, striking out a robust 144. However, he was scratched from his start on August 1st with pain in his forearm and thus begun a downward spiral that culminated with Tommy John Surgery that November.

The Dominican left hander split the 2008 season between the Twins and their AAA affiliate in Rochester, logging 76 solid Major League innings and 118 very good ones in Triple-A. In 2009, he was added to the Twinkies' Big League roster out of Spring Training but the results were less than optimal. By the end of May his ERA was close to seven. Although he put together some better starts during the summer months, Liraino found himself primarily relegated to relief duty by the time September rolled around. He made the roster for the ALDS but pitched only two innings out of the bullpen.

This year, however, Liriano is showing flashes of the potential that everyone saw in him back in 2006. He threw three straight short shutouts against the Red Sox, Indians and Tigers, but has followed that with two more pedestrian efforts his last two times out. Still, he's carrying a 2.36 ERA and an even better 2.24 FIP through six starts and has yet to allow a home run. He's held lefties to an OPS (not a typo) of .333 and opponents on either side of the plate are slugging just .292 against him.

The Yankees got to Liriano for six runs in a start in Minnesota last July and two more in two innings during the ALDS, but it's apparent that they will be facing an entirely different pitcher this time around. He's throwing with more velocity and more movement and his results so far speak for themselves.

Andy Pettitte was actually off to a better start than Liriano is this season before he took a 10 day hiatus to allow some inflammation in his elbow to die down. Pettitte reportedly wasn't happy that his turn in the rotation was skipped, but the Yankees weren't about to take any chances with a 37 year old pitcher who has meant as much to the team as Pettitte has so far this year. If Andy really takes the skipping personally, will have a chance to show the world that he was fine all along.

Today's game feature returns of different types. Liriano has seemingly returned to his earlier form while Pettitte is back from a much shorter time in exile. As such we are treated to a matchup of two of the best left handers in the American League so far this year and the gloves are coming off. I'll take the guy rocking the NY colors.

I run through obstacles, take off my shackles,
Proper backing with the bangers and the rhyme singers,
I run with dem and others, rock NY in colors.
[Song notes: Vintage DJ Premier track behind this Brand Nubian joint. Props to Lord Jamar for rocking the Yankee hat, even though the verse we are quoting belongs to Sadat X.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: Swisher is in the two hole while Francisco Cervelli gets behind the dish, allowing Jorge Posada to DH.
Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada DH
Thames LF
Cervelli C
Brett Gardner CF
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer DH
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Delmon Young LF
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto 3B
Drew Butera C

Friday, May 14, 2010

Game 35 Recap

A.J. Burnett ran into trouble right out of the gate. He stranded two runners in the first inning and then loaded the bases with no one out in the second. Nick Punto stood there while Burnett threw four straight balls to force in a run but up next, Denard Span tapped one back to the mound and allowed Burnett start a 1-2-3 double play and stall the rally. Orland Hudson struck out swinging to end the inning and Burnett escaped relatively unscathed.

Nick Swisher came out of the game after striking out in the second inning, his bicep injury apparently still nagging him. He had an MRI but it was negative and he's day-to-day.

The Yankees took a 2-1 lead in the fourth on a home run by Brett Gardner and a ground rule double to right by Robinson Cano but Joe Mauer hit a solo homer to even the score in the top of the fifth. In the bottom half of that inning, the Yanks jumped ahead once again, this time on a double my Mark Teixeira that scored Brett Garnder from first.

The score remained 3-2 until the top of the 7th. Burnett got two outs and with only 100 pitches and a man on first, Joe Girardi went to the bullpen for Damaso Marte, who promptly allowed a game-tying single to Joe Mauer. Brett Gardner threw the ball home for no apparent reason and allowed Joe Mauer to advance to second. Justin Morneau then ripped a double to center and gave the Twins a 4-3 advantage.

Scott Baker came out of the bottom of the 7th and gave up a single to Francisco Cervelli. Derek Jeter followed with a line drive directly off Baker's knee that deflected far enough away for Cervelli to get to third and Jeter to get to second with a double. Gardner looped out to left but it was caught and the Twins elected to walk Mark Teixeira to load the bases for A-Rod. Looking for the double play, Ron Gardnehire brought in sinkerballer Matt Guerrier, who A-Rod was 4-6 off of with three homers. Impossibly, his line got even better.

After ripping the first pitch down the third baseline (which looked to be fair or very close to it), Rodriguez blasted a fat fastball into the seats just in front of the bleachers in left for the 19th grand slam of his career, giving the Yanks a 7-4 lead. It also put him at 587, one ahead of Frank Robinson. A-Rod's home run was worth 35.9% of WPA which negated Marte's -33.5% implosion and then some.

Joba Chamberlain struck out the side in the top of the eighth inning, Francisco had an RBI triple in the bottom half and Mariano Rivera sat the Twins down in the ninth to wrap things up. The final score was 8-4 as the Yanks temporarily slowed their skid and continued their dominance at home over the Twins.

Tomorrow's game is at 1:00 as Andy Pettitte takes on the resurgent Francisco Liriano.

Game 35: Twenty Five Miles

One day short of one year ago, the Minnesota Twins came into New York for a four game wrap-around weekend series. The Yankees swept, winning the first three games via walkoff. The team had already registered two walkoff wins prior to the start of that series, but the triplet against the Twins was what began to make 2009 the year of the walkoff. It was in the second game of that series, won by an eleventh inning Alex Rodriguez home run, that A.J. Burnett delivered his first pie in the face of 2009. He followed that up with another the next day, when Johnny Damon hit a tenth inning homer to win a game that Burnett had started. A tradition was born.

After taking the fourth game of that series (in non-walkoff) fashion, the teams didn't meet again until a three game series in Minnesota in July. The Yankees swept that series as well, with Burnett getting the win in the middle game. But by virtue of being on the road, there were no walkoffs.

And of course the teams met again in the ALDS, and again, the Yankees swept. The final meeting at Yankee Stadium took place in Game Two, started by A.J. Burnett and ended by a Mark Teixeira walkoff home run in the eleventh inning. All told, the clubs met ten times last year and the Yankees won all ten games, four of them via walkoff.

A.J. Burnett gets the ball for the Yankees tonight, as they open a three game weekend series against the Twins. He was stone wild last year, leading the American League in both walks and wild pitches. This year is a different story, as Burnett's 2010 walk rate sits at just 2.8 per nine innings, 1.4 walks per nine lower than it was last year, and just 0.2 walks per nine greater than his career best of 2.6 walks per nine in 2006. Burnett may have a little more difficulty keeping the walks down tonight. Entering play today the Twins rank third in MLB in both walks (147) and walk rate (10.9%), up from being twelfth in both categories last year.

The Yankees are one of the two teams ahead of the Twins in both walks and walk rate, ranking second to Atlanta in both categories. But they're going to have their work cut out for them tonight if they want to get their free passes. Minnesota starter Scott Baker has a walk rate of just 2.1 per nine through his first 696 Major League innings. He ranked seventh in the AL in BB/9 last year, is currently eighth in the AL this year, and would have been amongst the league leaders in each of his first four seasons had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Since his debut in 2005, Baker ranks twelfth in walk rate amongst all pitchers with at least 696 IP.

After registering fifteen walkoff wins in 2009, the Yankees have yet to have one in 2010. But with four walkoffs in six chances against the Twins last year, perhaps this series will offer the Yankees first walkoff of the season. These two clubs are the two most walk happy in the AL this year, but one may lose their stride tonight since the starters have been so stingy with the base on balls. So what's it going to be: Walkoff or walk on?

I got to keep on walkin'
I got to walk on oh ho ho
I, I, I, I, I'm so tired but I just can't lose my stride
Walk on let me tell you ya'll
I, I, I, I, I, I'm so tired
But I just can't lose my stride

[Song notes: The Yankees may have left Motown yesterday, but I'm still in a Motown Records state of mind. Of course, Edwin Starr's most appropriate baseball song might just be "War", but that meme's been used so many times before.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
One roster note: the Yankees have released Christian Garcia. The talented but perpetually injured pitcher left his first start of the year with pain in his elbow, and has since undergone his second career Tommy John Surgery. With the open roster spot, the club has claimed pitcher Shane Lindsay on waivers from Colorado. This might not ever come into play, but the club has forfeited some roster flexibility with this move. Garcia's season ending surgery made him a 60 day DL candidate waiting to happen. Calling Garcia up and placing him on the DL would have opened a 40 man spot in the event the Yankees needed it later in the year. They no longer have that option, but they must see enough in the Australian Lindsay to feel comfortable giving up that flexibility.

Given Garcia's injury history, it's no sure bet that another organization snatches him up. He may end up back in the Yankees system, much like oft-injured Humberto Sanchez did after he was DFA'd following the 2008 season.

Derek Jeter, slump, sore pinky and all, remains in the lineup. Nick Swisher and his sore bicep return after a one day absence. Brett Gardner remains in the two spot; with Jorge Posada getting the night off the club prefers keeping Swisher's power in the middle of the order. With a righty on the mound Juan Miranda gets the nod as the DH, but interestingly Marcus Thames starts in left field.
Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Marcus Thames LF
Juan Miranda DH
Francisco Cervelli C

Twins:
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jason Kubel DH
Delmon Young LF
Alexi Casilla SS
Nick Punto 3B

Much Ado About Jesus

It's been a rough week for Jesus Montero. Last Friday night, he was pulled from Scranton's game. Initial speculation was that he might have injured his leg, but it was later revealed that he removed for failing to run out a ground ball. He was held out of the lineup for the next two days as punishment, despite the fact the Yankees daily injuries forced them to dip into the Scranton roster on nearly a daily basis.

That should have been the end of it. But this is New York, and Montero is one of the top prospects in baseball. We have to have a controversy here.

First up is ESPN.com's Jayson Stark with his weekly Rumbling & Grumblings column. File this one under grumblings:
Battle of the catching phenoms: It isn't every year that the International League has two catching prospects as hyped as Jesus Montero (Yankees) and Carlos Santana (Indians). But a scout covering that league says there's "no comparison" between those two. Santana "fits exactly what I want in a catcher," the scout said. "He's 6 feet tall, compact, much more athletic and quicker. He can swing the bat … and he's got the best arm back there I've seen in a long, long time." Montero, on the other hand, "just got benched for laziness, basically [i.e., not running out a ground ball]. And from what I've seen, the [Austin] Romine kid in Double-A is going to pass right by him, and Montero is going to end up as pretty much a right-hand-hitting DH. He's got talent. But his swing is really long, and he has no discipline. So the Yankees are going to have two frontline catchers. But they're Romine and [Francisco] Cervelli."

No one is predicting that Jesus Montero is going to be a Gold Glove catcher. In fact, very few are certain that he'll even remain at catcher long term. That his size (6'4", 225) creates some issues for his throwing mechanics is well-documented. But let's not go writing him off just yet. Montero can mash, and a bat like that is going to get every opportunity to play, be it behind the plate or elsewhere.

Cervelli is unquestionably a better defensive catcher, and Romine might prove to be the most complete player amongst the three. But Cervelli is just 24 and has all of 164 Major League plate apperances to his credit, Romine is 21 and has played just 26 games above A-ball, and Montero is 20 and has yet to play a full season at any level other than low-A. Let's not go jumping to conclusions just yet about who is going to outperform whom.

Speaking of jumping to conclusions, Joel Sherman decided to get it on the anti-Montero fun:
Jesus Montero messed up a great opportunity.

(snip)

The true sin is that he was removed from a recent game and benched for not hustling and sulking. This came at a time when the Yankees had a couple of injuries that have begun to negatively impact their offense, including to DH Nick Johnson.

(snip)

However, the Yanks are not going to call up a young player acting like a baby, and so Montero might have hurt himself now and into the near future.

In spring training, I sat in an office at the Yankees’ minor league complex and spoke with Montero. During that interview, Montero told me that Jorge Posada is “my daddy.’ That was his way of saying that while he was in major league spring training he followed Posada around like a puppy dog and hoped to emulate him.

If that were the case, then he learned very little. You could criticize Posada for being a bad baserunner or a stone-handed catcher. But his sincerity of effort has never been in question for one second of his Yankee career. Posada cares about being a professional and being a Yankee, and so he plays with passion.

And if Montero needs to see how far fervor can go then just look at what Francisco Cervelli is doing with the Yankees. He is creating a career with expected defense, unexpected offense and boundless enthusiasm. Cervelli is honoring the legacy of Posada. Not Montero.

Aah, weaving in the concept of sin in a post about a guy named Jesus. Brilliance Sherman! That's Pulitzer Prize material right there. And not only did Montero have the gall to dishonor the legacy of Jorge Posada, but he did it within days of Yogi Berra's birthday!

I'm not excusing Montero's failure to hustle last week. It's not the right way to play the game. But at the same time, he's been disciplined. In fact, he's been disciplined somewhat heavy-handedly, essentially a two and half game suspension for one groundball. I think the message has been delivered. No need to go making mountains out of mole hills.

I respect Posada's approach to the game as much as the next guy. But let's not go deifying him here. There have been occasions in his career where Posada has failed to run out a grounder. The same holds true for Derek Jeter and everyone else who has played the game "the right way". It happens. Let's not get too worked up about who's disrespecting who's leagacy, especially when declaring that the infectiously enthusiastic Cervelli is honoring the legacy of the notoriously red-assed Posada.

Once again, Jesus Montero is 20 years old. He's in just his third season full season of stateside professional baseball. He's spent just a half season at both the high A and AA levels. He's just one rung below the Major Leagues, and he's encountering some difficulty (.233/.295/.359) for the first time in his career. Let's cut him a little slack.

It's easy to look at the unexpected success Cervelli has had, and read all the glowing scouting reports about Montero's bat, and say that Nick Johnson is on the DL yet again and never to return, and want to see Montero come riding in on a white horse to save the season. But that's just not the way it's going to work.

The Yankees are committed to giving Montero every chance to succeed behind the plate. They've already fast tracked his development, bringing him to AAA without completing a full season at high A or AA. Bringing him up to play any sort of meaningful role this season was never in the cards. Making him a DH for part of this year would railroad his development as a catcher. Promoting him when he's slumping for the first extended stretch in his career would be a disservice to his development as a hitter. Making him a Major Leaguer without him completing a full season at any of the top three levels of the system would be extremely short-sighted. Just calm down, relax, and let him spend the year at AAA. We'll reap the benefits in the years to come.

On the bright side, at least Montero's trip to Bradenia last night went better than A-Rod's.