A Tier-fall Friday Afternoon Linkaround

These links are dedicated to the memory of the 2009-10 Syracuse Orange basketball team. Their epitaph will certainly mention the 18 turnovers they committed last night.

To their credit, River Ave. Blues is having a "No Joba, No Hughes" day.

Still need your fix? Dave Allen at FanGraphs thinks putting Joba in AAA is the right move.

Around the 17:00 mark on this podcast, Don LaGreca from the Michael Kay Show on 1050 ESPN Radio begins interviewing Dave Eiland. At about 23:00, Eiland explains that the Yankees most likely won't ask Joba to start this season because of the shoulder injury he suffered in 2008.

However, Brian Cashman claims that Joba is a "starter in the bullpen". Which is sort of like saying that someone is a lawyer working as a legal aide.

During his recap of last night's game, Cliff from Bronx Banter dropped this little gem:

Marcus Thames, meanwhile, is hitting .094 (3-for-32) with just one walk and no extra-base hits after going 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts. Joe Girardi keeps talking about Thames’ track record, and it still seems as though Thames will make the team. That should tell you just how much spring performances really matter.

Marc Carig asks how long the Yankees will wait for Thames to start hitting. Brian Cashman contends that he's "impacted the ball pretty hard", but his 13 to 1 K/BB ratio isn't terribly encouraging. In his defense, he hasn't faced many lefties, something he'll have a chance to do tonight against Jamie Moyer.

Chad Jennings was hoping to shoot Cashman today. With a paintball gun. During a game of paintball. No word on whether Jennings accomplished his mission, but Brian Hoch, Carig and Feinsand all hit the target.

Joel Sherman dares to argue that if A-Rod is found to have used HGH that it will ruin his legacy. Bold, I know, but he also offers up something that you probably didn't know: A-Rod turned down the chance to host Saturday Night Live several times this winter. Probably a good choice. I doubt A-Rod is a very good actor considering he isn't even good at being himself.

NYY Stadium Insider introduced a new author today, and he tells his story of what might be the ultimate Yankee Stadium Insider experience.

Another blow to the notion of "clogging the bases".

Wezen-ball ranks the worst seasons by an Opening Day starter in the last 50 years. Carl Pavano's 2007 isn't on there because Larry's bottom 10 are guys who stuck around long enough to compile a WAR of -2.2 or worse. You know who did make the list, though? Mr. Opening Day, Jack Morris.

Breaking news: Jonathan Papelbon can't grasp a simple concept. To those who think Yankees vs. Red Sox games are too long, he says:

If you don’t want to be there, don’t be there. Go home. Why are you complaining?

They want to be there, dummy, but they probably have to get up for work in the morning and want to see actual baseball instead of an endless parade mound visits, guys stepping out of the box to adjust their jock and asshat revilers who take so long to come into the game they get fucking fined for it. I'm not one to complain about the length of Yanks/Sox games, but can understand why people - especially fans of other teams - are irritated by a 5-4 game that takes 4 hours and 15 mins to complete.

Rob Iracane of Walkoff Walk rounds up two recent and rather pathetic some stories combining prostitution and baseball (attempted prostitution, that's an embarrassing charge to be tagged with). Had he expanded that to actresses potentially playing prostitutes in baseball-related movies, he might have included this. He wouldn't mind her for a rib, but before Megan Fox gets the part our buddy Old Hoss has requested to take a gander at her cat-heads.

And I know it's painful, but via 'Duk's Twitter feed, here is the last tier of the grandstand at the Old Stadium being torn down. Disclaimer: it's not for the elderly, nostalgic or faint of heart.

/sobs quietly on keyboard

The Flexibility Of The 2010 Bench

Good morning Fackers. Late last August, the Yankees rolled into to Fenway park for their final visit to Boston on the season. The Yankees entered the weekend set with a 6.5 game lead in the AL East, so the series was an important one - particularly for the Red Sox. Though the Yankees had lined up Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, and CC Sabathia to start the three games, the rest of the pitching staff was in a state of flux. The plan to limit Joba Chamberlain's innings down the stretch left him, Sergio Mitre, and Chad Gaudin in various states of limited availability.

Given that, Joe Girardi's love of playing the match ups, and the tendency of Yankee-Red Sox games to turn into four and half hour slug fests, the team decided to add an extra pitcher for the series, activating the long-disabled Damaso Marte and sending down Ramiro Pena. The move left the Yankees with a 13 man pitching staff and a three man bench, consisting of Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina.

With Brett Gardner's broken thumb keeping him on the DL and Pena on his way to Scranton, Hairston was left as the primary back up at 2B, 3B, SS, and CF. When nagging injuries took Johnny Damon out of the line up for the series' first two games, the bench was truncated even further, leading to some misadventures for Eric Hinkse in front of the Green Monster.

Complicating matters, the first two games were absolute laughers. The Yankees dropped a 20-11 hurting on the Sox in game one, then the Sox returned the favor wth a 14-1 beatdown in game two. With such lopsided contests taking place relatively late in the season, it would have been nice for the team to be able to rest pivotal, older players like 35 year old Derek Jeter, 38 year old Jorge Posada, and 34 year old Alex Rodriguez, who was just months removed from hip surgery. Instead, the truncated bench left the Yankees with very few options. Posada caught every inning of the two games. With only Hairston on the bench, Jeter played all of game one while A-Rod got the late innings off, while game two saw Hairston sub for Jeter and Jose Molina make his only career appearance at third base so that A-Rod could get some rest.

Why do I bring all this up some seven months later? Because Francisco Cervelli played two innings at third base in Wednesday's game. Unlike Molina's stint there last year, this was planned. All Yankee catchers take groundballs at some infield position (Jesus Montero taking grounders at first created a minor stir earlier in Spring Training), and with Cervelli being a converted shortstop, there was little harm in throwing him at the hot corner during the late innings of an exhibition game.

By the time the 2010 season is over, Wednesday's little experiment will likely be long forgotten, but I think it was important. With older, valuable players like Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada amongst the regulars, it would be nice if the Yankees had the luxury of resting them in blowouts. Last August's series in Boston showed some of the pitfalls of an inflexible roster. Whereas that situation was the result of injuries and a bloated pitching staff, the 2010 Yankees are shaping up to be less flexible by design.

Gone are Hairston and Hinkse from last year's bench, both of whom were capable of playing both the infield and outfield. In their place are Randy Winn and presumably Marcus Thames, who are exlcusively outfielders, though Thames has minimal experience at first base. As such, Ramiro Pena is the lone utility infielder on the club, meaning that only one of Jeter or A-Rod could be rested at any one time. This shouldn't be a big deal, unless some injury should befall one of them in the late innings on a laugher. Giving Cervelli some experience at third might serve the team well in the future.

As for Cervelli, there is value in it for him as well. His lack of a potent bat, even by catcher standards, has him universally projected as a career back up. With Jesus Montero and Austin Romine not far off, and Gary Sanchez, JR Murphy, and Kyle Higashioka behind them, increasing Cervelli's versatility will increase his chances of long term survival with the Yankees and will increase his value overall. Getting him some experience at another position was something we touched upon last year when Cervelli was demoted.

There is a further option still in camp who could also increase roster flexibility. It is all but assured that Marcus Thames will win the final outfield spot. But David Winfree is still in camp. Just 24, Winfree has spent the entirety of his seven year minor league career in the Twins system, reaching AAA last season. Like Thames, Winfree is right handed bat with some pop, averaging nearly 15 HR per season over the last five years. Though he's spent the last two years exclusively as an outfielder, Winfree has extensive minor league experience at third base and first base. From a flexibility perspective, Winfree could offer the Yankees more than Thames, but Thames bat and track record will likely earn him the job.

But Winfree is still young, and former scout Frankie Piliere feels he has a future ahead of him. We may yet see him on the Bronx during the 2010 season.

Joba Is Heading Back To The Bullpen

Joe Girardi wouldn't state it unequivocally when he talked to reporters this morning, but if you listen to the audio that Chad Jennings provided when it became official that Phil Hughes would be the 5th starter, it's pretty obvious what the plan for Mr. Chamberlain is.

At the 5:15 mark in the audio Girardi says, "Obviously, he's moving back to the bullpen, possibly, this year". Listen to it for yourself, but my read is that Girardi has already made up his mind. He awkwardly tags on that "possibly" because nothing has been officially announced yet, but the first part says it all.

As I laid out last Wednesday, I believe the best move for the future of the organization would be to send Joba to AAA to start the year if he wasn't given the 5th spot in the rotation. That way, he'd be able to work on skills specific to being a starting pitcher (controlling his pitch count, 3rd & 4th pitches, etc) and would be available on short notice in case of an injury to someone in the rotation. But that doesn't appear to be the plan.

Here are some relevant exchanges that I'm basing my conclusion on and my reactions to them.

Q (0:43): Joe, is Joba definitely going to be your 8th inning guy?

Girardi: You gotta earn it. And that's what I told 'em, you guys gotta earn your time and what you're gonna do. You don't just hand things over.

The reporter pretty much skips over whether or not Joba will be in the bullpen and asks what Joba's role will be in it. If his role was still up for debate, then would have been a good time to bring it up, but Girardi doesn't.

Q (5:24): Is there a chance [Joba] could go to the minors to start and keep him on the starting path?

Girardi: Umm... We gotta see how he does here, in the bullpen. And I said, there's no guarantees that if you were in that 5 man race that you are automatically going to the bullpen; in a sense you've gotta prove yourself.

So ironically, the better Joba pitches, the more likely it is that he will stay in the bullpen. I'm sorry, but that is ass-backwards.

Q (5:44): Joe, do you still see Joba, long-term, as a starter?

Girardi: You know, I think Joba could do either one. I really do. But now we think Phil's a little bit ahead of him as a starter.

Right now, Hughes is probably the better starting pitcher between them. However, I don't think Hughes being a better option than Joba all of a sudden means that Joba shouldn't be a starter. Girardi didn't address the "long term" aspect of the question and that's not a trivial consideration. I can understand the manager of a team only being concerned with this year, but I'm surprised Brian Cashman would be so short sighted.

Q (7:14): What's going to determine how you are going to fill out the rest of your bullpen?

Girardi: Well, we wanna take the 12 best guys. I think it's important to be best equipped. We're in a very difficult division, we're in a very difficult league.

And that's pretty much what it comes down to. Joba is clearly one of the 12 best arms in the system and the Yanks aren't willing to stash someone in Scranton who could be helpful to the Big League club now. That's a valid viewpoint. With both the Red Sox and Rays in legitimate contention for the division title, the Yanks don't think they can afford to leave one in the chamber. But how much is Joba worth to the Yanks in the bullpen?

In theory, removing Joba from the bullpen should cost the Yanks about one win this year. Is anyone willing to argue those 8 runs above replacement are worth sidetracking his development as a starter for?

The Yanks are certainly putting a lot of faith in the notion that a pitcher's career high in innings pitched is more important than how many they threw in the previous season. Hughes' career high in IP is 146, but that came in 2006. His cap for this year has been estimated at around 170, despite the fact that he threw just 105 last year.

Joba on the other hand, threw 167 last year and would have been free to throw upwards of 200 in 2010, if he could stay healthy and go deep into games. Now, if he stays in the bullpen for the whole season, it's unlikely that he'll end up with more than 70 or 80 IP. It's also unlikely that he'll be utilizing his curveball or changeup very often. He certainly won't be working on the very tough task of being efficient with his pitches over the course of a start, one of the things that held him back during his time in the rotation.

So where does that leave Joba for 2011? What if Javy Vazquez and Andy Pettitte are both gone and there is another opening in the rotation? Joba will be in a worse position to fill that spot than he was this spring.

Why not put Joba in the rotation in Scraton? He'd be a call-up away if the team needed a spot start or someone got hurt. Even if it goes well in AAA and there isn't an opening for him in the Bronx, they could call him up after the All-Star break and put him in the bullpen then. At least he would have a good amount of innings and some valuable starting experience under his belt.

Or perhaps, if/when he's called up, they could insert him into the rotation and shift Hughes to the bullpen. That way, Phil wouldn't run into his innings cap during the season like Joba did last year. Sure, they could stretch Joba out during the season if they needed to, but that didn't go too well for them last time, did it? (nods to the right)

We are still a week and a half away from the beginning of the season and a lot of things can and will change as the pages of the calendar turn. But I can't help but think that the Yankees are making the wrong decision.

The WSJ's New & Unconventional Take On Beat Writers

Via Baseball Think Factory, the Wall Street Journal is adding a fleet of so-called beat reporters to cover the major New York sports teams.

The Journal’s New York sports section will assign beat reporters to the major local sports teams, including the Mets, Yankees, Jets, Giants and the Knicks, sources said. They’ll be credentialed for home games, and they’ll travel to road games.

However, they won't be functioning like regular beat writers:

Sources familiar with the plans said that The Journal will not be covering games in the way that, say, the tabloids do. Instead of rehashing what happened the night before, the Journal sportswriters will be looking for news features and interesting stories from within the locker room.

That would, of course, fit it nicely in competition with — who else? — The Times.

Whereas the News and the Post continue to cover games as if it were 1998—and God bless them for it!—The Times has changed its focus over the past year. Tom Jolly, The Times’ sports editor, has put more of an emphasis on features and trend stories rather than demanding that beat reporters stay with a team every waking moment.

To their credit, the WSJ is providing their staff with the same level of access to the team as other papers, but not the same burdens of reporting every bit of the day-to-day minutiae.

There are a lot of guys on the Yankee beat right now. Fewer than there were, but probably more than there need to be. Not to say that any individual paper should discontinue its daily coverage, but if you read multiple beat writer's blogs, there is a tremendous amount of overlap between them*.

*For instance, the news Chad Gaudin being unconditionally released this morning first came from this tweet from Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. Soon after, Brian Hoch reported the same thing on Twitter, as did Mark Feinsand. Within a half hour, MLB Trade Rumors was linking back to Carig, Hoch put up on an article on MLB.com, River Ave. Blues had the news, and Chad Jennings was reporting Gaudin's departure. About an hour and a half later, an AP story showed up on Carig's blog, Jennings had audio from Gaudin, and within two hours, Craig Calcaterra noted it at NBC Sports.

Essentially, the marginal gains a fan gets from following each additional beat writer are hardly worth the effort of reading them. For even a die-hard fan to read (or just skim) the same things in several different places over and over again seems grossly inefficient, especially when you consider that each individual beat writer is going to pick up the most important bits of information for you soon enough.

While it makes sense for papers that already have beat writers to keep them, it would be foolish for an outlet looking to stick its foot in the door to do so via a traditional beat writer.

Not many media companies could afford to pay someone to travel with a team without the expectation that they will provide thorough day-to-day coverage of it. In the days of fuzzy online revenue streams, it might be difficult to tell whether or not the expenditure is justified. The WSJ, however, is willing to take that chance.

Like Bloomberg Sports, this is another example of a financially-focused company allocating a relatively small amount of resources for a sports-related venture. Each appears to have somewhat limited upside when compared to the company's primary focuses, but both BBG and WSJ seem to be applying the practices that made them successful in other arenas to what they are doing in sports. Bloomberg is providing intuitive software for baseball analysis and the WSJ is offering companion-style reading for New York area teams.

By allowing its writers to stay close to the team but focus on producing news features and more substantial analytical pieces, The Journal has created a position with the daily access of a beat writer but the writing requirements of a columnist. By going for exclusive, high quality stories they are aiming for the kind of content that might be of interest to those who aren't fans of the specific team they cover. It seems like a best-of-both-worlds type of arrangement, but it will be up to each writer to deliver top notch content and validate those theories.

The Journal has been producing quality sports content for a while, but they have it stashed away two clicks removed from the homepage under the Life & Style tab. Now, it would appear, they are making a more serious foray into the New York sports media landscape. And by eschewing the traditional expectations of a beat writer, it seems they are on the right track.

Small Decision Made, Big Decision Looming

Good morning Fackers. So today is the big day. We will finally find out the winner of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History, and then everyone will collectively complain about the results. And frankly, at this point, I don't know what the right decision is. I'm just thankful that we're nearing a decision, which means were close to moving on from this for the time being. I just hope that whatever choice is made leaves both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in a position to reach their full potential in 2010 and beyond.

There were some roster decisions made last night, as another round of cuts took place. Pitchers Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo, infielders Juan Miranda and Kevin Russo, and outfielder Greg Golson were all optioned out. All should start the year at AAA. Russo's departure ensures what we speculated Tuesday: Ramiro Pena will be the utility infielder to start the season. Miranda and Golson had no real chance of making the team.

Melancon and Albaladejo had an outside shot of winning a job in the bullpen. We've seen both before and I'm sure we'll see both at various points in 2010. I'm still very bullish on Melancon's future. Their departures leave left-handed pitchers Boone Logan and Royce Ring as the only legitimate threats to Sergio Mitre nailing down the final spot on the pitching staff, though naming Hughes the fifth starter and placing Chamberlain in the Scranton rotation would leave room for both Mitre and a second lefty in the pen.

We'll be back later with a little more unconventional roster speculation.

Humpday Roundup

It's noon on Wednesday, the apex of the hump. It's all downhill from here. You know, in a good way...

According to Joel Sherman, although the Yanks haven't announced it yet, they have decided to put Curtis Granderson in centerfield. I was initially in favor of Granderson playing left field due to Brett Gardner's superior range, but this post in particular from Rob Neyer convinced me that there are some pretty good reasons for Granderson to play center. And of course, that alignment can change during the season if it isn't working out.

Sherman also says that Phil Hughes is likely going to be the 5th starter when the season begins. Not much of a surprise there. Now they just need to send Joba Chamberlain to AAA (not that I'm holding my breath for it).

Via Jennings, the Yanks have released 9 players from minor league camp. Not to many recognizable names, save for Seth Fortenberry and Chirs Malec.

Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter took a detailed look at what the Yankees see in Sergio Mitre. He talks about what happened this spring but goes well beyond the typical stats and takes more of a scouting perspective. I'm important to keep that sort of stuff in mind since was only a year removed from Tommy John surgery when he made his debut for them last season. Now he is closer to 20 months and is supposedly feeling much better.

Remember Jason Giambi's motto: Rake like an All-Star, party like a rockstar and hammer like a porno star. Well he wasn't kidding about at least one of those. (via the B-Ref blog)

Craig asks whether this year will be the one that age finally catches up to the Yanks.

This is a couple of days old, but still pretty hilarious.

Steve Sommer from FanGraphs directs us to a spreadsheet courtesy of Cot's detailing how much "dead money" each team is responsible for this season. They Yankees are paying $4.5M, which is pretty low compared to the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels, all of whom are close to $16M but high compared to the Cardinals, Mets and White Sox, who are about $8-9M in the black.

For those in the NYC area, 12 Angry Mascots (the folks behind the hilarious Fernando Perez video) doing a show with former Yankee Jeff Nelson this Saturday, March 28th at Comix (14th St & 9th Ave). You can check out some of their stuff on YouTube and buy tickets here.

From around the league and beyond:

Surviving Grady has a video of Youk discussing the options for his facial hair contest with some of his fellow Sawx in the locker room. Judging by Terry Francona's reaction to "clean shaven", (the current leader in the clubhouse) I think we made the right choice with our donation. However, with John Lackey throwing his weight and newfound financial might behind the mustache, the race is far from over.

Do wOBA and linear weights in general undervalue Ichiro by treating all outs the same? Tango, referencing RE24, says yes. In-depth stats not your thing? I think we all can enjoy this awesome catch Ichiro made yesterday.

Elijah Dukes' wife defends her husband on New York Baseball Digest.

David Pinto's Baseball Musings turns 8 years old today. That's like 150 in blog years.

Our friend Josh Levitt, formerly of Jorge Says No!, has moved to the new MLBFreeAgency.com. He joins It's About The Money, Stupid, Wezen-Ball, Pending Pinstripes, NYY Stadium Insider and many others on the Bloguin Network.

Similarly, for hockey fans, Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily has started up Broadway Hockey Daily.

Bad news for Doc Gooden and anyone else who might have been on the road in Franklin Lakes, N.J. last night.

Matt Sussman runs down some farcical ideas that baseball could adopt to prevent marathon extra innings contests.

In that same vein, Josh Zerkle from KSK collects some of the options that the NFL rejected for its new overtime rules. Noticably absent are the sudden death coin flip; one time through the card game War; rock, paper scissors; a punt, pass and kick competition; and a four on four mixed martial arts match in an octagon in the middle of the field.

10 (Bad) Reasons Spring Training Is "Better" Than The Regular Season

I've never been to Spring Training. I wanted to make the trip this year, but couldn't really find anyone to go with and didn't have the gumption or disposable income to go down by myself as a strictly blog-related solo adventure. But I'm sure it would be a lot of fun.

Whether you are in Florida or Arizona this time of year, you are treated to a unique kind of baseball experience. As a fan you're much closer to the action and you get to see a lot of the team's prospects who will be distributed throughout the farm system when the season rolls around. You're there for the batting practice and long toss and all the other stuff that you don't usually get to see from April - October, especially from your couch. The weather is obviously much nicer than it is here in the Northeast which a considerable benefit after being subjected to three months of temperatures around or below freezing. Blog friends Kevin Kaduk and Craig Calcaterra both made the most out of their time hopping around the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues and produced some great material when they were down there.

So Spring Training is cool. It's different. But no one would actually say that it's better than the regular season. Would they?

Ladies and gentlemen, Ron Chimelis of MassLive.com would:

Once these teams head north, the air will be deflated out of my baseball balloon. In July, when others are setting their watches to the trade deadline, I will long for the carefree days of March, when the sport was at its most special and most pure.

Special? Yes, it's different than the regular season. Pure? Sure, if you're referring to the fact that it's not clouded by things like "competition", "excitement" and "anyone actually giving a shit". Being 8 years old was "carefree" and "special" and "pure", but it also sucked because you had no money, couldn't drive a car, your parents told you when you had to go to bed and no one really listened to what you had to say.

1. The ballparks. Not only are they cozy, they are named for people who have evidently done something worthwhile in their communities... It's much better than visiting stadiums named for multi-national corporations that were in the news when the nation's economy started going down the port-a-potty.

You get to see Major League players in what is typically a minor league setting, that's cool. But I assume you are referring to Citi Field? Well, the Mets just renamed their Spring Training facility "Digital Domain Park". I'm sure Mr. Domain has done some fantastic work in the Port St. Lucie area.

2. When a slugger hits a 440-foot homer, we can say it's because the pitcher was a 19-year-old kid who was buying a tux for his prom last year, not because the hitter was juiced.

Is that what you say when a person hits a massive home run, Ron? That they are "juiced"? I usually say something like "Wow, that was a bomb". Instead of trying to divine whether or not a player is taking performance enhancing drugs based on the distance of their home runs, I would recommend just trying to enjoy the game all year round.

3. The fans are universally nice. Most patrons, including those who line up at 8 a.m. to see what tickets are available, are either living on retirement money or on vacation.

Well... good for them? I don't attend baseball games to interact with courteous people. I go to see baseball players play baseball. And I definitely don't care how nice the people at the park are if I'm watching at home.

4. Lineups where the lowest uniform number is 67. I'd love the scorecard concession for these games.

If I wanted to watch a bunch of minor leaguers play, I'd watch a minor league game.

5. Parking for $5.

It's Florida and Arizona, parking should be free. In New York, thanks to the subway and the Metro North you don't even have to drive. You can even park your bike at Yankee Stadium now! What about the cheaper tickets and concessions? Sorry folks, Ron's in the press box so he doesn't care about what might matter to you the reader/fan. THIS IS RON'S LIST, SUCKERS!

6. Common sense. The umpires called a Red Sox-Astros game in the eighth inning Sunday after a 16-minute rain delay.

Common sense? Well in the regular season, it's sort of important that everyone plays the same amount of games, you know, for the playoffs and stuff. If it rains, they aren't just going to call it quits because the beat writers want to go home.

7. Fans who gloat about the Florida weather. This really annoyed me at first, but now I find it rather entertaining.

Nothing could be more relevant to a game of baseball than the fans talking about the weather. And everyone loves repetitive gloating about something they are not in any way responsible for!

8. Parking for $5. So good, I'm listing it twice.

It's much more likely that you couldn't think of another flimsy point to support your weak premise and instead of billing the piece as "9 things...", you copped out and repeated yourself.

9. The delightful contradiction over how much performance matters.

This is actually the worst part, by far, about Spring Training.

10. Interleague games that don't offend purists' sensibilities, split-squad games, games against Northeastern University and Boston College. You don't get this variety once the real games start.

There are plenty of good reasons that you don't get split-squad games against college teams when the regular season starts. No one wants that kind of "variety". If you want to see Bahston Cawledge and Nawtheastahn, then go down to fackin' Chestnut Hill.

I get what Ron is trying to get at here. He had a good time down in Florida and doesn't mind mailing in a hacky column proving just that. The problem is that most of his readers likely didn't go down to Florida and don't give a shit about the $5 parking, the nice weather, friendly people, or the ballpark names. They just want the season to start and the games to matter.

11 days.

A Quick Announcement About Comments

Fackers, we are under attack. During the wee hours of the past two nights, we have been absolutely blitzkrieged by spammy comments. Some blogger user by the name of "mamamia" has dropped two spam bombs on every post dating all the way back to mid-December. Not cool.

I have taken action against this evil menace. I eradicated every one that was left yesterday, and am in the process of getting rid of the hundred or so that popped up last night. More importantly to some of you though, I've had to put the comments in moderation mode, meaning that you might have to wait for them to be approved. I'll do my best to stay on top of okaying them.

Hopefully this is just a temporarily thing. I don't want to have to put a word verification step or anything else that's going to be annoying/inconvenient to those of you who actually want to join in the discussion here. Thanks for hanging tough. Together we can vanquish the wretched bitch known as "mamamia".

Roster Taking Shape

With the return of Jamie Hoffmann to the Dodgers on Monday, the waiving of Chad Gaudin today, and the now daily reassignments to minor league camp, the Yankees Opening Day roster is easily predictable at this point. Barring any injuries or an unexpected trade, these are the guys we can expect to see on the third baseline in Boston on Easter night.

Starting Rotation (5)
CC Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Javier Vazquez
Winner of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History

Bullpen (7)
Mariano Rivera
Chan Ho Park
David Robertson
Damaso Marte
Alfredo Aceves
Sergio Mitre
Runner-Up of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History

Catchers (2)
Jorge Posada
Francisco Cervelli

Infielders (6)
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Nick Johnson
Ramiro Pena

Outfielders (5)
Nick Swisher
Curtis Granderson
Brett Gardner
Randy Winn
Marcus Thames

Ostensibly, Pena and Kevin Russo are still competing for the utility infielder spot, but I don't see Russo being able to usurp the incumbent. Outfielders Jon Weber, Greg Golson, and David Winfree are still in Big League camp, but none seem to fit the profile of what the team is looking for from the final outfield spot: Weber is left handed, Golson is speed/defense guy with a poor bat, and Winfree has no Major League experience and less than 500 PA above AA.

I don't suppose Mitre is guaranteed a job, and Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo are still around, but the club appears to be impressed with Mitre's strong spring, he has a track record with Joe Girardi, and his presence as the long man will allow the club to use Alfredo Aceves in more critical relief roles. I'd rather see Gaudin than Mitre in the long man role, but I am curious to see how Mitre's sinker plays out of the pen.

Gaudin Waived

According to Ed Price of Fanhouse, Chad Gaudin was placed on waivers last night. Price further tweets that the waivers are outright waivers, making them irrevocable and meaning the Yankees cannot pull Gaudin back if another team claims him.

This leaves Gaudin with a few potential fates: he gets claimed by another team who assumes the entirety of his $2.95M salary; he clears and the Yankees outright him to the minors, remaining responsible for his contract; if Gaudin, has been outrighted before, he has the option to refuse the assignment and forfeit all but 25% of his contract; or he clears and the Yankees release him outright, owing him 25% of his contract.

Gaudin is a capable pitcher, so I'm assuming someone will claim him. FanGraphs' fan projections for 2010 have Gaudin at 0.8 WAR, which would be worth $3.6M on the open market. He's averaged 1.5 WAR over the last three seasons, good for approximately $6.75M on the open market. By those standards, he's a worthwhile pitcher at $2.95M.

Much like yesterday's return of Jamie Hoffmann, I'm a little bit surprised and somewhat disappointed by this move. Gaudin was essentially competing with Sergio Mitre for the longman/sixth or seventh starter position on the roster. While Mitre has been the better pitcher this spring, Gaudin is younger, has the better track record, has been effective in the AL in the past, and has shown himself to be serviceable both out of the pen and at the back of the rotation. Every available projection system predicts Gaudin as the better pitcher this year. Perhaps their salaries figured into this decision; or perhaps this move is a precursor to a rumored trade to secure Hoffmann's rights.

The recent transactions with Hoffmann and Gaudin leave the Yankees with two open spots on their 40 man roster.

Posnanski Ponders Prospect Promotion

As consumers of sports writing, we are extremely lucky to be living during the Joe Posnanski era. At no other point during the history of athletic journalism has there been A) a professional sports writer willing to write thousands of words on top of their weekly quotas simply for the enjoyment of it and B) a way for the public to access those words for free. It's not just the volume at which he produces content, but Poz's posts are overflowing with interesting nuggets. To wit, here's a tangent that he went off on while talking about the Nationals' plan to start Stephen Strasburg in the minor leagues this year.

On the other hand — well, I haven’t thought out the following too deeply. But I do sometimes wonder if “not rushing top prospects” is kind of safe, conventional thinking, the same sort of safe, conventional thinking that causes football coaches to punt on fourth down and short. In other words, I sometimes wonder if people don’t rush great prospects like Strasburg because it SOUNDS safer rather than because it IS safer.

[...]

I do sometimes wonder if one way to think out of the box is to really push prospects, especially advanced prospects, much faster than teams are doing it now. Sure, every GM and scout around can tell you horror story after horror story about players who came up too soon and were ruined because of it. But we don’t really know if those players would have succeeded had they been treated more carefully … maybe they were just lacking the talent or the work ethic or whatever. We can't really know.

In between those two paragraphs, Posnanski gives the example of Bob Feller who, although he was thrust into the Majors at 17 years old and walked more than 6 batters per 9 innings during his first three seasons, eventually figured it out and went on to have a great career.

The transition from the minor leagues into the Majors is one of the more delicate dances performed in sports, in both directions. So the sayings go, you don't want to bring a guy up "before he's ready" and you don't want to send a guy down when he has "nothing left to prove". Of course, the decisions are clouded with enormous amounts of luck. We've seen marginal players burst onto the scene and future Hall of Famers stumble out of the gate (there are some managers mixed in to that list, but you get the idea).

Look at Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli, neither of whom had played above AA before getting called up to the Yankees. Neither of them hit the cover off the ball with the MLB team, but they made representative efforts at the plate (Pena actually improved on his minor league numbers) and shined defensively. These are just anecdotal examples with small sample sizes, but it goes to show that calling up a player "too early" isn't necessarily destined to fail.

In other sports and at other times in life, we are told that we benefit from increased competition. Perhaps we are put on a project at our job that pushes the boundaries of what we thought we were capable of and do some of our best work on it. Personally, I tend to play better golf when I'm paired with three other guys who shoot in the 70's than when I'm out with a few of my buddies who only break 100 on a good day. Does your performance on the basketball court improve when facing better competition? Again, not perfect examples, but just some things to consider.

The problem is that there are no alternative universes in which we can test these theories. You either go with Plan A or Plan B and get judged by the results. You don't have multiple Joba Chamberlains, one of which you could have kept in AAA to work on his starting repertoire in 2007 and 2008 and the other you could have brought up to the Major League bullpen to help the team in '07.

No team wants to squander a top prospect by doing something that is perceived as risky like rushing him to the Majors. Oh, they'll risk putting him on the wrong path by doing something seemingly conservative like stashing him in the minors for too long, but that's a whole different story.

I think this line of decision making has become de rigueur in sports. Whether it truly makes sense or not, PR plays a large role in many of the decisions that a franchise makes. It's one thing to be wrong when your decisions agree with conventional wisdom, it's an entirely different beast to roll snake eyes when you are bucking the established trends.

The example Posnanski uses about punting on 4th and short is a great one. Coaches are willing to be slightly wrong all of the time instead of being really wrong once in a while and getting lambasted like Bill Belichick did when he went for it on 4th and 2 and failed.

As decision making in sports becomes more and more grounded in logic and analysis, teams have to look to get an edge by finding the places that conventional wisdom might not be correct. Or places that it's generally correct but can be unnecessarily cautious at times in the name of saving face.

Maybe Sky Kalkman's unconventional line up really is better than the usual ones we are used to seeing, but if Joe Girardi trots it out for the first week of the season and the Yanks score three runs a game, he's going to be tarred and feathered by the media. If that happens with a typical batting order, (most sane) people would just chalk it up to bad luck. It would be kind of stupid for Girardi to stick his neck out that far simply on a self-preservation level.

Sure, there are plenty of factors that might keep a great prospect in the minors, like the cost of starting their arbitration clock and finding the right place for them on the team, but I agree with Poz's hunch that teams might be wasting some quality production in the minors by being too conservative with the timing of their call ups. Maybe that seemingly premature call up is a springboard to a better career. Perhaps it ends in failure, frustration and a demotion back to AAA. But there's only one way to find out.

Yanks Done Hassling With The Hoff

Earlier today, Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann cleared waivers and was returned to the Dodgers. The Dodgers will pay $25,000 for Hoffmann's return, half the initial price the Yankees paid for the pick. Hoffmann hit .130/.259/.174 in 26 plate appearances this spring. He drew three walks against one strike out and was one for two in stolen base attempts.

Barring an Elijah Dukes signing, it appears that Marcus Thames has won the fifth outfielder competition, despite his equally anemic .107/.167/.107 line in 29 plate appearances this spring and poor play in the field. Setting aside the useless, small sample size stats of the spring, it appears that the club values Thames' right handed power more than Hoffmann's versatility, defense, and speed. Thames may only do one thing well, but apparently that's the one thing the club is seeking from this spot. The team is lacking in right handed power from left field and the bench, but have players with skill sets similar to Hoffmann's in Brett Gardner and Randy Winn.

Speculation abounds that the Yankees may make a trade with Los Angeles, potentially sending an extraneous fifth starter candidate/longman such as Chad Gaudin or Sergio Mitre, to secure Hoffmann's rights. This would slightly reduce payroll and would free the Yankees from carrying Hoffmann under Rule 5 obligations, giving them the flexibility to stash him at AAA rather than carry him on the Major League roster all year. If that were to happen, it would create quite a log jam in the Scranton outfield with Hoffmann, Colin Curtis, Greg Golson, Reid Gorecki, Jon Weber, and David Winfree, though Hoffmann figures to be of more value than the rest of them.

On the flip side, such a deal would also mean that the Yankees had to trade two Major League pitchers - Brian Bruney and whoever goes west - in order to obtain a AAA outfielder. None of those pitchers should be considered a major loss, but I'd like to think that for the price of two Major League caliber pitchers the team could at least secure a fifth outfielder in whom they are confident.

In the end, it doesn't appear the pick has worked out well for the Yankees. The Rule 5 Draft isn't designed for teams like the Yankees and it was unlikely from the start that they'd obtain anyone of value from the pick. For every Johan Santata, Joakim Soria, or Shane Victorino that gets selected in the Rule 5, there are hundreds of Jamie Hoffmanns and the like who don't pan out. Still, Brian Cashman executed a shrewd trade with the Nationals to secure the top pick in the draft. It's unfortunate they weren't able to find a usable part with the pick of the litter.

Midday Odds & Ends

Here are a few items of note, mostly from over the weekend:

A rainout down in Florida forced the Yankees to schedule an intrasquad game today to ensure that all their pitchers stayed on their respective schedules.

Hearing that, Jon Heyman busted out his jump to conclusions mat and declared that since Joba Chamerlain was not playing against the Phillies in Clearwater that he was no longer in the race to be fifth starter and can take his rightful place in the bullpen. (/rolls eyes and makes wanking motion)

Where does Joba belong? The chronically uninformed and impatient contingents of the interwebz have spoken loud and clear.

Alfredo Aceves had a bad outing against the Astros (4.1 IP, 5R). HE'S OUT OF THE RACE!!!!!

Chad Jennings profiled Ace in the Journal News on Sunday.

While the primary topic of the Yanks' Spring Training continues to focus on who will be the 5th starter, Marc Hulet at FanGraphs contends that the role is something of a myth. He instead suggests a three-headed approach to soaking up the last 25 or so starts the top four members of the rotation don't make.

Mark Teixeira (somewhat understandably) doesn't understand why UZR categorizes him as a below average first baseman. Joe Pawlikowski explains what UZR might be missing, to which I will add the fact that the metric totally disregards infield line drives which go a long way between determining which first baseman are good and which aren't. Joe also leaves open the possibility that we are giving Teix a little too much credit.

Marc Carig has a video interview with Phil Hughes wherein Phil demonstrates and discusses the different grips he uses for this 4-seamer, cutter, curve and change.

Carig also caught up with Kevin Towers over the weekend who explained how his background helped him as GM in San Diego:

Because I wore several hats, I probably had a greater appreciation for all the different roles. I knew what it was to be a player, to be a prospect, how difficult it was being a prospect and going through the different levels of the minor leagues, what goes through a player’s mind. As an area scout, how difficult and lonely a job that is... You feel like you’re kind of off there on your own, especially when I was doing it. There wasn’t cell phones, there wasn’t computers, there wasn’t voice mail. You were really kind of a nomad out there trying to find players.

Before Jesus Montero was assigned to minor league camp, Chad Jennings sat down with him for 5 questions.

Austin Romine, Colin Curtis, Reid Gorecki, Dustin Mosely, Jason Hirsh also got the boot from the Big Leauge camp.

Tyler Kepner caught up with Chein-Ming Wang.

'Duk from Big League Stew checked in on Rinku and Dinesh, the winning contestants from the Indian reality show Million Dollar Arm.

Robert Cribb of the Toronto Star did a piece on the mysterious man that is Tom Tango, who helps the Blue Jays' front office in an advisory capacity.

Jeff from Lookout Landing ran some data in an effort to see how much LASIK surgery benefited the players who had it done and came to a somewhat unexpected conclusion.

If plan on visiting Citizen's Bank Park anytime soon, you might want to vote for their signature hot dog. My vote would certainly be for the The South Philly, which is "all-beef and topped with broccoli rabe, spicy roasted peppers, and sharp provolone on an Italian roll". They had me at "broccoli rabe".

This suspect's second biggest crime was wearing a green Yankees hat.