Since dropping both halves of a two game set against the Rays back on May 6th and 7th, the Yankees have won seven out of eight series against their opposition. The only one they lost was against the World Champion Phillies and all three of those games were closely contested. A win tonight could make it eight out of nine.
They done it every which way, dropping the first game of three against Toronto, taking all four against the Twins by a grand total of 5 runs, blasting the Orioles in each of the three games in the Bronx, and taking 2 out of three from Texas both in Arlington and at the Stadium. The Twins and O's were the only two sweeps, the other five have gone 2-1 in favor of the Yanks.
Those three walk off wins against the Twins seem like the obvious turning points in hindsight. Dramatic wins and whipped cream pies in the face have a way of galvanizing teams and making them think they should win every game (or at least every series). Momentum is a fickle mistress, but the Yankees appear to be doing a hell of a job of keeping her around at the moment.
The one player with the most influence on whether the Yanks can notch another series victory tonight will be Andy Pettitte. The 37 year old eclipsed the 2800 innings pitched mark in the fifth inning of his last start, which is a hell of a lot when you think about it. The only problem was that he didn't come out for the sixth. He only allowed one run in the outing before that in Cleveland (where his back problems first surfaced) but that outing was only 5 innings as well. Pettitte went deeper into his previous two but allowed 4ER in each. His last quality start was on May 13th and before that you have to go back to April 26th to find another. It's not to say that Pettitte has been horrible, he's pitched well enough to pick up five wins, but we've come to expect a little more from our lefty.
For the Rays, Andy Sonnanstine will toe the rubber. His two starts against the Yankees this year are the only two in which he has not received a decision. One was a 4-3 victory for the Yanks back on April 15th, and the other was a 4-3 win for the Rays on May 6th. In 11 starts this year, Sonnanstine has a decent 4-5 record but a hideous 7.07 ERA. He's been good against the Bombers so far this year, allowing 2 runs in each of his starts, going 5IP the first time and 7 1/3 the second. He's been decidedly more cold than hot against the rest of the league, however. The other Andy has given up 2 or fewer runs just as often he's given up 5 or more (5 times each), so let's set the over/under at 3.5 and see what happens.
Via River Ave. Blues, Mariano Rivera was not 100% when got touched up for 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning on Saturday. Tim Brown from Yahoo!, would you please fill us in?
For several hours before Rivera took the ball Saturday afternoon in that tie game, he’d suffered with a stomach ailment that brought aches and repeated vomiting, according to one Yankee. Rivera had rolled off the trainer’s table, where he’d hoped to sleep it off, and into the bullpen in the eighth inning, when he began to warm up.
Joe at RAB directs the attention of his post to commending the fact that Mariano stepped up and took the ball, even though he wasn't at his peak and didn't make excuses about it. Although once the information came out, the media was more than happy to make those excuses for him.
The thing I have a problem with is that according to Brown, Girardi knew that Mo was physically ill and laying on the trainer's table until he started warming up into the eighth inning. Mo is a warrior and a consummate professional, but no one is going to be able to bring their A-Game when they are battling a stomach virus.
I first-guessed the decision to take out Sabathia (without knowledge of Mo's condition) on Saturday. It was a borderline call. It's not like the Yanks were clinging to a one run lead and Phil Coke had just pitched the 8th inning. Sabathia, at 101 pitches, was ready to come back out for the 9th but Girardi went with "the book" even though his closer was vomiting a few innings earlier. I'm sure Mo said he was ready to pitch, but it's the manager's job to get the best performance out of his players, and calling on Mo in that spot was a dicey proposition at best.
So you can't really see what the circled area says since Blogger sucks, but in their Sunday morning edition the Asbury Park Press proclaimed Mine that Bird, rather than his half brother Summer Bird, as the Belmont Stakes winner.
Anyone could predict the race wrong before it happens, but it takes special talent to get it wrong after the fact. No wonder the newspaper industry is going down the tubes.
(h/t Deadspin, where you can actually see the picture without a magnifying glass)
Good morning Fackers. It's Monday morning, so you're likely grumpy, as am I. But you know who's really in a bad mood? Alex Rios.
After going 0 for 5 with 5 Ks in last Thursday's matinee, taking the rarely seen platinum sombrero for the second time in his career, Rios headed out for a night on the town at a team sponsored charity function. Let's go to the videotape, which features some NSFW language:
Wow. You stay classy there Alex Rios. I believe the locals would say that you are a hoser. Rios is not performing too well this year and I have him on both my fantasy teams. I don't know if I can tolerate this type of behavior from one of my players. If you're going to play for The Boozehounds or A-Rod's Bitch Tits you have to carry yourself like a professional both on and off the field.
For much of the day, Sunday afternoon was a frustrating one. I was frustrated as I struggled through assembling a gas grill. Relegated to the outdoors, I was forced to listen to the game on the radio, meaning hours of suffering through John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman. Meanwhile, between the lines, the Yankees were surely frustrated with their inability to capitalize on a struggling Matt Garza. Garza battled through five innings, laboring constantly. He thrice pitched out of RISP jams, including in his final inning, where he walked the first two batters, #8 and 9 hitters Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera, and still managed to wriggle out of trouble. He exited having surrended just one run - a third inning solo shot to Nick Swisher, the 100th home run in the brief history of the new Yankee Stadium.
In the other half innings, Joba Chamberlain turned in a representative outing. He wasn't as efficient as he'd been Monday, getting only six innings out of his hundred pitches, but he surrendered only five hits and one BB while striking out four. The one walk is particularly encouraging, as his walks have been up this year. It was his lowest walk total since his first start of the year. He generally cruised, allowing neither a hit nor a walk in four of his six innings and only got into real trouble in his final inning, where he allowed three singles and a walk, leading to two of the three runs he allowed.
Chamberlain gave way to Alfredo Aceves in the seventh. After starting the year in the minors, Aceves has ascended the pecking order in the pen, becoming one of Joe Girardi's most trusted relievers. Aceves once again rewarded that trust, working two innings of one hit ball while stiking out four. He gave the Yankees just what they needed.
In the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees finally broke through. After Derek Jeter led off with a flyout, Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira hit back-to-back singles, putting runners on the corners. An A-Rod walk loaded the bases. J.P. Howell relieved Grant Balfour and walked Robinson Cano to cut the deficit to one.
Howell then nearly escaped without further damage, as he induced a potential double play ball off the bat of Jorge Posada. But third baseman Willie Aybar, subbing for the hobbled Mrs. Tony Parker, booted the ball allowing the Yankees to tie the score and leaving them with the bases loaded and still only one out. Hideki Matsui followed with a chopper up the middle. Posada was tagged on his way to second, but the gimpy-legged Matsui did his best Jake Taylor impression and beat the throw to first, allowing the go-ahead run to score.
Mariano Rivera returned to form in the ninth, needing just ten pitches to work a perfect frame. It gave Aceves, who wasn't recalled unitl early May, his fourth win on the year good for a tie for third on the team.
About the only remote negative on the day was the continued absence of Phil Hughes. As I stated earlier this week, I have no problem with a short term move to the bullpen for Hughes. However, the youngster still needs to pitch, and he has not appeared in a game now since his start last Sunday. Aceves has done a fine job and deserves to be getting the ball, but I don't see any reason why Hughes couldn't have gotten the call today.
That said, it was a good end to a fine Sunday afternoon. The grill was completed just fine. The Yankees are back to 10 games over .500 and are in position to take the series tomorrow night. Today's win coupled with a Red Sox loss put the Yankees back into first place. Come on back tomorrow; we'll do it again.
The nice thing about a four game series is that if you're a good team, it's very hard to lose the series. With Friday's rainout however, this has become a three game series, and with yesterday's loss the Yankees will need to win the next two to take the series. They've won three straight series and seven of eight dating back to A-Rod's return in Baltimore. It'd be nice to keep that momentum going.
In yesterday's game preview, I made an off the cuff, sarcastic remark about the Rays moving David Price to the eighth inning. Then in the recap, Jay offered up the story from the telecast that there was never any consideration from the Rays to do so. It must be nice for the Rays fans, not having to deal with the tired, foolish argument over and over again. I wish we were so lucky.
Joba Chamberlain takes to the mound today, coming off his best start of 2009: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, and 5 K in a win over Cleveland. His strikeout total might be somewhat lower than what we've grown to expect from Joba, but that was functional. Not going as deep into counts allowed Joba to get 8 innings out of his 106 pitches, compared to past starts this year where 108, 104, and 108 pitches netted him 5.2, 6, and 6 IP respectively. Getting deeper into games is certainly one thing upon which he needs to improve and Monday was a big step in the right direction. Starts like that will go a long way towards silencing those who want him in the bullpen.
He'll be opposed by Matt Garza. The lanky righty is off to great start and on pace for the best season yet of his young career. He faced the Yankees way back on April 14th, and held them to 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 BB over 7 innings, while striking out 9. Unfortunately for Garza the bullpen imploded in relief of him and the Yankees took the game 7-2.
So today's game is all about doing it again: getting to 10 games over again, taking the AL East lead again, getting in position to take the series again, and most importantly, for Joba to turn in a dominating performance again. Way back for Joba's first start of 2009 we went with Steely Dan, and today we'll do it again as well.
It's a beautiful Sunday. Enjoy it; I know I'm going to. I'll be back later tonight with the recap. Take it away Steely Dan....
You go back jack, do it again Wheel turning round and round You go back jack, do it again
The New York Yankees will become the first MLB team to have its games streamed live online within its home market, thanks to a landmark carriage deal YES Network signed with Cablevision earlier this spring.
The streamed games will begin later this season and will be available via subscription to Cablevision’s TV and broadband customers who subscribe to a tier that carries the YES Network, according to several baseball and cable industry sources.
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The pact also marks the first major effort within baseball for in-market streaming — an issue that has troubled the industry for years. Several clubs that hold equity interest in regional sports networks, such as the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles, have pressed for in-market streaming to complement MLB.TV’s out-of-market online video package.
Even if you don't have Cablevision, this is interesting news. Although three-way negotiations are rarely simple, I've never understood why teams, networks and the MLB couldn't agree on a revenue split for streaming the games over the internet. It's a legitimate untapped resource. Especially during day games, there are lots of people trapped at work who would love to be able to watch the game but have no access to a TV. Provided the commercials are still present during the broadcast, more eyes means more money, right?
Kudos to the Yankees and Cablevision for finally ironing this out. It seems inevitable that this will move beyond just Cablevision and just NYC to larger cable companies and throughout the MLB.
Due to the magic of FanGraph's WPA charts, we can see exactly where it started going South for the Yanks. They had a 75% chance of winning the game entering the 5th inning, but unfortunately it would never get any higher than that.
Early in the game for the Yanks, the offense was entirely ignited by A-Rod. After going homerless over his last 43 at-bats, he smashed the first pitch of the second inning from David Price into the home bullpen.
During the broadcast, David Cone said he talked to Joe Maddon about moving Price, who had great success coming out of the bullpen at the end of last season, back there at any point. Maddon responded that there was never any thought, as he was simply too valuable in the rotation. Although he wasn't efficient today, it was still obvious why the Rays were of that opinion. I wonder how many fans in Tampa are clamoring for him to go back to the 'pen.
The Yanks did their best to escalate Price's pitch count and chase him from the game. With the score still 1-0 in the 4th inning, A-Rod worked a one out, 7 pitch walk . With Posada at the plate, A-Rod got a great jump and took off for second. Dioner Navarro's throw sailed into CF (his second throwing error to that point), and allowed Alex to take third easily. With the infield in, Cano hit a sharp grounder to third, which A-Rod again got a good jump on and Willie Aybar was forced to take the out at first. 2-0 Yanks.
The Rays got to Sabathia in the top of the 5th. Ben Zobrist led off with a homer to left. Joe Dillon followed with what should have a been a single, but ended up standing on third after Johnny Damon threw ball away over Cano's head for no apparent reason since Dillion wasn't going for second. Dillion scored on a sac fly by Navarro and the Rays were right back in the contest.
The third run of the day for the Yanks came on yet another throwing error by Navarro (there were a total of six errors in the game). Melky Cabrera doubled to start off the fifth, and was advanced to third by a Francisco Cervelli sac bunt. Navarro attempted a snap throw to third from his knees, but it bounced past Aybar, and Melky scored easily. Sliding back to the bag, though, the back of Carbera's neck met Aybar's shin. On the way to the plate, he held his hand to the area behind his right ear, but remained in the game.
In a matter of three batters in the sixth inning, the game turned dramatically. After a walk by B.J. Upton and a single by Carl Crawford, Willy Aybar deposited one into the left-centerfield seats to put the Rays up 5-3. It was a bit of a shocker, as CC had been in control for much of the outing.
Price took the mound to start the sixth, but was removed with two outs after having already thrown 105 pitches. Despite only 53 going for strikes, he was in line for the win. The Rays held the Yanks down for the next two innings, but that would change in the bottom of the eighth.
Mark Teixeira left off the inning against Grant Balfour and uncorked a blast as close to we have seen to reaching the upper deck in right field which put the Yanks within one. A-Rod was up next, worked a full count but popped out. Then Posada, Cano, and Swisher all reached base on a walk, a single and a walk. This set the stage, once again, for Melky Cabrera, the resident clutchologist. He grounded into was what very nearly an inning ending double play, but edged the throw at first. Replays showed it was basically a dead heat, so Melky was lucky to get the call and the Yankees to tie the game.
All the while CC Sabathia lay in wait. He was bailed out of a B.J. Upton walk by a caught stealing in the 7th and needed only 8 pitches to work through the eighth, leaving him at 101 for the day. Entering the ninth inning, I felt that Girardi should have left Sabathia in (I sent a message to our Joe on GChat, for the record). Instead, he went with "the book" which dictates a manager bring in his closer in a tie game in the ninth inning at home.
Despite allowing 5 runs, Sabathia had pitched reasonably well. He had only allowed 5 hits and smoothly maneuvered through the 7th and 8th. He could have been left in a batter by batter basis with Mo ready to be deployed from the bullpen.
Alas, Girardi did not, and Mo gave up a triple that died at the outfield fence to Ben Zobrist who scored on a single by Joe Dillon in the next at bat. That unlikely duo combined to score four of Tampa's runs after a two out single to B.J. Upton. It was Mo's worst outing of the year (3ER, 2/3IP), nudging out another game against the Rays on May 7th, during which he allowed back to back home runs to Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, the only other time this year he did not complete at least one inning. Two inherited runners scored on Phil Coke's watch and by the time three outs were recorded, four men had come to the plate. For what it's worth, 6 of the 9 runs Mariano has allowed this year have come in non-save situations.
The Yanks would not go quietly in the bottom of the ninth. Jeter led off with a single which Johnny Damon followed with a double over the head of B.J. Upton in center. Big Teix mashed a double in the right field gap off of Dan Wheeler, which scored two and brought up A-Rod as the tying run with no one out. Alex grounded out without advancing the runner and passed the buck to Posada. Jorge saw 8 pitches (2 strikes that were visibly below his knees) from Wheeler before lacing a liner right at B.J. Upton who was positioned in deep center. Joe Maddon used his sixth pitcher of the game, former Yankee Randy Choate, to get the last out against Cano. Robby alos worked a full count and lined out to Upton, who momentarily look like he misplayed it.
Let's try this again. After getting washed out yesterday, the Yanks and Rays will kick off their series today when the weather will be much nicer. From a strictly selfish standpoint, I was somewhat happy that last night's game was called early. I had tickets for last night, and will be there today as well, so the last thing I wanted to do was drive in the rain and NYC traffic during Friday rush hour, pay $19 to park, then get rained out or have a game last until 1 AM, then drive home and do it again in the morning. I'm not at all complaining about going to games, but that would have been less than ideal. I've sat through a ton of rain delays the last few years it seems. The early cancellation saved me some driving.
Switching gears for a second, today is also the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. The Sport of Kings was once amongst the most popular sports, if not the most popular sport, in America. I'm by no means a horse racing fan or expert, but I love watching the Triple Crown races, the most exciting two minutes in sports. I'm not really even a gambler; I'm just intrigued. I like watching a one ton animal move that fast. I like watching the drunken spectators go nuts. I like laughing at how funny the jockeys talk before they return home to their gorgeous wives. I like the possibility that something horrific may happen. 2007 was Barbaro; 2008 was Eight Belles; we're running out of time for this year.
The Yankees recently had several loose connections to the world of horse racing. Joe Torre, Don Zimmer, and Jim Kaat all dig the ponies. Hank Steinbrenner has been very involved in the family's thoroughbred business. Torre, Zim, and Kaat are all gone from the Bronx now, and Hank thankfully appears to be under some sort of gag order, so today I'll be your Yankee horse racing expert. Pick Mine that Bird. It's a no brainer. As of this writing he's going off at 2 to 1, but it doesn't matter if it's not a high profitability bet. I don't see anyway he loses this race. He put on a show at the Derby, and if the Preakness were two lengths longer he would have overtaken Rachel Alexandra, who isn't even running today.
Given the relatively weak field and Mine that Bird's knack for coming off the pace, I just see no way he loses. At a mile and a half, The Belmont is the most grueling leg of the Triple Crown. Many a good horse has fallen victim on its home stretch. After leading most of the race, Real Quiet lost the Triple Crown to Victory Gallop by a nose at the wire in 1998. In 1973 Secretariat won by an astounding 31 lengths in a record 2:24, one of the dominating performance in racing history if not all of sports. You couldn't even see another horse when he crossed the finish line. I don't think Mine that Bird will equal that, but I don't expect the rest of the field to even be close to him.
The aforementioned 1998 race is the closest I've come to seeing that elusive Triple Crown. We won't see it this year either as Mine that Bird and Rachel Alexandra split the first two legs. But, in an unorthodox, if not unprecedented, fashion, jockey Calvin Borel (a jockey since the tender age of 8) won both races. With Rachel Alexandra out today, Borel is back on Mine that Bird and has the chance to win the Triple Crown as a jockey. I hope he does it, and you should too if only to listen to his ridiculously amusing Cajun accent during his post-victory interview. I'll likely be driving home at post time, but I'm thinking of stopping at the OTB on the NY-CT border to watch the race. As I found out on Derby Day, horse racing does not translate well to radio.
Back to baseball. The Yanks and Rays send two thoroughbreds to the mound today in CC Sabathia and David Price. It seems as if the Yankees have had many of these lefty-lefty match-ups already this year. Price is the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball. Since making his Big League debut against the Yankees last September 14th he's been lights out, posting a 2.35 ERA and 29 K over his first 23 innings. The Rays really should have him pitching the eighth inning.
CC has been cruising of late, so this should be a good pitchers duel. CC hasn't pitched in a week due to Wang rejoining the rotation and yesterday's rainout, which is a bit concerning, but the big fella should be alright.
Meanwhile last year's Cinderella team is turning into a pumpkin, playing .500 ball and in fourth place. Dioner Navarro, B.J. Upton, and Andy Sonnanstine are all struggling. The double play combo of AkiIwamura and Jason Bartlett is on the DL, with Iwamura out for the year. Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir and Troy Percival are also on the DL and all have been brutal while healthy. And unfortunately Eliot Johnson is in AAA Durham, so there will be no revenge for Frankie Cervelli this weekend.
Once again, I'll be at the game, but for those of you watching on TV, don't be looking for Kim Jones on the pre-game. She'll be on Long Island, getting ready to break from Gate 11 sometime around 6:27.
In honor of today's day at the races here's some vintage Lowell George era Little Feat and "Day at the Dog Races". I highly recommend you listen to some Feat and I strongly suggest you don't listen to anything from after Lowell died. Since this one's an instrumental, there will be no lyrics today. Enjoy.
[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments.
We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.
Matt examined the offense earlier. Below are the five starters and three relievers who warrant comparisons to their projections. We excluded Brain Bruney, Edwar Ramirez and DamasoMarte since their returns are yet to be determined. We didn't look at Chien Ming Wang because his extrapolated numbers project him to give up 90 runs in 12 starts.]
(Click on any chart for a larger view)
A 3.46 ERA isn't gaudy by any means, but after stumbling out of the gate CC Sabathia has certainly settled down. He's won four out of his last five starts and threw 8 innings of three run ball in the one he didn't. CC's K's are down and walks are up from his career norms, but both of those stats are trending in the right direction. ZIPS has a more favorable projection than the extrapolations and my gut feeling even is a little more bullish than the ZIPS.
Two complaints with Joba's numbers: He's walking 4.6/9IP and only lasting about 5 2/3 IP per start. These two things are both influenced and counterbalanced by Joba registering nearly one strikeout per inning. He gets deep in the count looking for the put-away pitch, driving up his pitch count and giving out some free passes, but can neutralize threats by tallying K's. This explains how he can simultaneously sport a 1.44WHIP and a 3.71ERA. His start on June 1st showed huge steps forward in both of these departments (8IP, 2BB).
Like Joba, Andy Pettitte's WHIP is predictive of a much higher ERA. Unlike his young rotation mate, it's not as easy to explain. Pettitte is giving up comfortably more than a hit per inning and walking nearly 4 per 9. His strikeout rate isn't high and he's only induced 4 double play balls. The answer lies in the fact that of Pettitte's 77 hits, 55 have been singles. He's always had an uncanny knack for allowing baserunners and not giving up many extra base hits goes a long way towards limiting the damage.
It's the 11 long balls allowed, the grand slam to Jason Varitek in particular, that have inflated A.J. Burnett's ERA. The walk rate is fairly high but he's still striking out twice as many as he is giving a free pass to. The ZIPS projection has AJ's ERA coming back down, but assumes that he will make three fewer starts than he is on pace to and toss about twenty fewer innings. That would be the equivalent of roughly one stint on the DL, which wouldn't be too shocking, given his injury history.
Hughes has already thrown more big league innings than he did all of last year, with a lower ERA, so does this classify as a step forward? He's won three games (0 last year) and has strong K/9. The thing that is killing Phil, just like Burnett, is his HR rate. Allowing a HR roughly once per five innings is too high for a Major League starter. He'll be back in the rotation at some point, but it will be interesting to see how he looks out of the 'pen.
Mo gave up three runs in April, three runs in May and is now sitting awfully close to his career ERA of 2.29. He's walked one batter in 22 innings while striking out 28. He's picked up 12 saves thus far, on pace for 36. His career average? 38. The man machine is a model of consistency in a role where such steadiness, especially over the long term, is incredibly tough to find. Cherish Mo.
For some reason, the ZIPS for Phil Coke predict him making 10 starts, which is rather curious considering he's no better than the Yankees 9th or 10th option within the organization. This is lone example of where our predictions might be more relevant than the ZIPS. A 1.14 WHIP should be good for a better ERA than 4.50, but forgive me if this sounds redundant... he gives up too many homers (5 in 22IP). Once that rate declines, so will his ERA. The bad news is that 4 of those knocks came in May, not exactly an indicator that the ratio is headed in the right direction.
Okay, last but not least... Oop, no, he's actually least as well. Jose Veras. Here's the good news - He's giving up fewer than one hit per inning! Here's the bad news - Everything else. In 22 IP, he's allowed 14BB, 16ER, 3HBP and 4HR. If he didn't throw 96mph he would have been DFA'd a long time ago. ZIPS thinks his ERA will come back down, which it had better, provided he has any interest in remaining a member of the Yankees.
Both Matt and I were initially surprised that the bullpen had an ERA that was close to as good as the starting rotation's. But it makes sense when you consider Chien Ming Wang has given up 30 runs in 18 2/3 innings and Mo is always back there keeping the bullpen's number down. Relievers are both walking and striking out more per nine innings but starters are allowing more hits, partially due to a .37 difference in BABIP.
The most surprising discrepancy between the two (highlighted on the far right on the chart) was that relievers have given up nearly as many HR as starters (35 to 39) in only 54% of the IP (171 to 316). That's a pretty huge disparity, and a ratio for relievers (1.84/9IP) that should come back down to earth eventually.
[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments. We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like. Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury. Jay will be back later with pitchers.]
(Click on any chart for a larger view)
Following off-season shoulder surgery, Jorge Posada was perhaps the biggest concern entering the season. His shoulder has been just fine; it was his hamstring that put him on the shelf for a month. When healthy he's been better than can be expected, especially for a 37 year old catcher. ZIPS projects him to fall off from his current torrid pace, but the .921 OPS would be the 4th best of his career.
Teixeira had an awful, awful April followed by an unbelievable May. As such, he's leveled out, and both his extrapolation and ZIPS leave him just about where you'd expect him to be for a full season. ZIPS predicts the power numbers will drop off a bit.
Cano has rebounded nicely from a very poor 2008. Though he's dropped off a bit from his hot start, he still looks likely to finish in a good spot. His refusal to take a walk still dogs him though, as his OBP is slightly below league average despite being a .300 hitter. It is also well below his 2006-2007 numbers. If Cano doesn't improve his walk rate he will continue to be entirely reliant upon his hitting for his offensive value. As such, it'd be nicer to see him in the .320 - .330 range.
Those are good numbers for a 162 game season, nevermind from someone who missed the first month plus. ZIPS sees the AVG getting back up to a more A-Rod like level, and there's no reason to believe that it won't.
It's been a bit of a renaissance for the Captain this year as his line looks good. As it does for others, ZIPS sees his power dropping off from its current pace, but 16 HRs would still be his highest total since 2005. It's interesting to note that despite getting on base at a good clip as the leadoff hitter for a potent offense, Jeter is not a lock for 100 runs.
Hideki Matsui is the streakiest player I've ever seen. Already this season he's been through about two cycles of looking like crap followed by catching fire. ZIPS projects more of the latter the rest of the way and I hope it's right. This is almost certainly Matsui's last hurrah in pinstripes and he deserves to go out on a high note.
Johnny Damon is in a contract year in he's playing like it. He's on pace for 33 HRs, though ZIPS projects a more realistic 23, one short of his career high set in 2006. The .851 OPS predicted by ZIPS would be the 4th highest of Damon's career and his best since 2004. If he can finish out that way I'd gladly give him one year or one plus an option.
Swish hit like Babe Ruth in April and like Ruth Bader Ginsburg in May. He's getting hot again of late. Both the extrapolation and ZIPS predict just about what you'd expect from Swish: slightly below average AVG, great OBP, and good power. I'll gladly take that.
I may not be 100% sold on Melky still, but after his disastrous 2008 I can't be anything but thrilled with his 2009 thus far. Whether it's for real remains to be seen, but he's rebounded nicely and has shown a flair for the dramatic with all his late inning heroics. ZIPS sees him coming back to earth a bit by season's end, but his projected AVG, SLG, and OPS would all be career highs. I'm a little surprised to see his projected OBP that low, but Melky has been taking fewer walks as this season has progressed. Like his buddy Cano, Melky would benefit greatly from more plate discipline. I'd love to see his OBP hold at its current .360 clip, the same mark he posted in 2006.
After a disastrous start that saw him lose the CF job to Melky, Gardner has come on strong of late. He has absolutely zero power, so in order for him to offer any real offensive value he's going to have to get on base at better than the league average rate that ZIPS projects, thereby allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. The problem is that the good OBP skills Gardner displayed in the minors haven't quite translated to MLB. When you're a rookie with no pop pitchers will challenge you, making it much harder to draw a free pass. That said, given his current role on the team, Gardner looks to be doing his job adequately.
The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced Andy Pettitte could easily win 300 games. He’s eighty wins away right now at age 37. He talks about retiring, but his competitive spirit (and large paychecks) keep bringing him back.
He’s a left-hander who induces ground balls. The way balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium to rightfield, the probability exists that Andy’s combination of physical attribute and pitching skill will prove very valuable to the Yankees (although he’s allowed seven of his eight home runs in the Bronx this season).
Finally, Pettitte has the potential to remake himself into a slower pitcher, to become Jamie Moyer. Moyer didn’t start winning game in earnest until he was 33. He totaled 59 wins at that point and now has 250. Andy might get some coaching from Mike Mussina in this regard. That will allow Andy to be effective as age takes it’s toll.
I don't think the fact that Pettitte seems to toy around with retirement just about as much as anyone this side of Brett Favre can be glossed over. He's a family man and it's often said that being away from them for so long takes a toll on him. I get the feeling that Pettitte is thisclose to hanging up the cleats at the end of every season, but Pinto is right... he does keep coming back.
Logistically, let's see how this would work: Pettitte is on pace for 15 wins this year which is reasonable considering he had 14 and 15 in his past two, respectively. That would leave him at 230 and 38 years old after this year. Even if he continued to win 15 games a year, it would still take him nearly 5 years to get to 300. Does anyone think Pettitte is going to keep trucking 'til he's 43? He has admitted to being injured for the second half of last year and his back acting up as we speak.
Lastly, Jamie Moyer is the exception to the rule, a total outlier who shouldn't be used as a comparable to anyone. How many pitchers in the majors are older than 43 right now? Two: The Big Unit (45), Moyer (46). Kenny Rogers (another lefty) turned 43 last year and seems like a better comparable for Pettitte than either of the other two (B-R doesn't think any of the three are in Pettitte's top 10). The Gambler won 61 games from 2004-2008 (ages 38-43) playing in Texas and Detroit but his effectiveness steadily eroded towards the end.
I suppose anything is possible, and it's fun to imagine someone on the Yankees becoming a 300 game winner (I'm not counting Clemens since he only won a relatively small portion in pinstripes - 83). But if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Joba Chamberlain before Andy Pettitte.
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