Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Field Trip Day At Yankee Camp

Good morning Fackers. Today marks another milestone as we move closer to real live baseball, as it's the final day before Spring Training games begin. The Yankees will not spend the day doing pitcher's fielding practice, throwing bullpens, and taking BP. Instead, trying to recapture the success of last spring's team building exercise, the team will play hooky today and take a little field trip for some sort of mystery competition.

Last year it was a pool tournament, so I doubt they'll repeat that this year. Reports from earlier in the spring ruled out bowling and paintball as too much of an injury risk. So what does that leave? Shuffleboard? Bocce? Laser tag? Mini golf? Ping pong? What do you think Fackers? Leave your ideas in the comments.

I can't take credit for the idea below, as Peter Abraham ran with this last year upon the recommendation of Connie Schwab in the Yankees' media department. I don't think they'll end up in a pool hall again today, but the general idea still applies. And far be it from me to pass up an opportunity to embed a Springsteen video.


We're gonna play some pool, skip some school, act real cool
Stay out all night, it's gonna feel all right

Monday, March 1, 2010

If Omar Minaya Is Pryzbylewski...

Over at Baseball Analysts, they are doing a feature called Stakeholders wherein they interview someone affiliated with each Major League team and preview the upcoming season. Yesterday, Jeremy Greenhouse interviewed Pat Andriola from The Hardball Times about the Mets and led off with an awesome question. (Fair warning: If you haven't watched The Wire, you're probably not going to get much out of this post):
Jeremy Greenhouse: If Omar Minaya were a character from The Wire, who would he be?

Pat Andriola: I need a minute to think about this...You know who I think it is, it’s Pryzbylewski. Prezbo is clearly a guy, like Omar as a GM, who is thrown into a certain situation. Prezbo was in the police department where everything lines up for him to be there, but maybe it’s not the best situation for him. Like Prezbo was better off at school, maybe Minaya should be on the sidelines as a scout—head of scouting—because he gets a deer in the headlights look as GM. He makes some silly signings, like Prezbo shoots a cop accidentally. I think that’s it. That’s my on the spot answer.
Like the question, Pat's response is excellent, too. If you were feeling less charitable, you might pick Herc as Minaya's analog, but that might imply that he only got promoted to GM because caught Jeff Wilpon getting a blowjob on his desk.

Prez isn't a bad guy, but he clearly made some mistakes during his time as a cop. And some of those mistakes might have cost him much more dearly if he wasn't the son-in-law of Major Valcheck. Similarly, if Minaya was working for someone other than the Wilpons, he probably would have been sacked after the Luis Castillo deal (accidentally discharging his gun in the office) or re-singing Oliver Perez (beating up the kid who was leaning on the squad car in front of the high rises). Perhaps the part where he accidentally shoots a fellow cop is yet to come.

To continue this analogy a bit further, I think Brian Cashman's closest comparable in The Wire is Stringer Bell. Both are quiet and calculating and second in the chain of command - Cashman reports to the Steinbrenners and Stringer to Avon Barksdale. All Cashman is concerned about is winning and all Stringer cares about is making money, while their employers have different concerns (the Steinbrenners want to be profitable and Barksdale is obsessed with his name and reputation). Both are a few steps removed from where the rubber meets the road but still have a deep understanding of The Game. Each has a rabid customer base in fantastic market and runs the operation like a streamlined business even though their industry is filled with firms that don't.

For those who made it this far without having seen The Wire, or those in the process of re-watching it, check out the fantastic reviews that Alan Sepinwall wrote on his blog for seasons 1, 2, 4 & 5. I discovered Alan's work during my first time through Season 4 and reading his synopses increased my enjoyment and understanding of the series exponentially. I've since started from the beginning and am working my way through, checking his summaries after every episode. Highly recommended.

If you've got any clever baseball-to-The Wire analogies, feel free to drop them in the comments.

Divisional Realignment Is Not The Answer

As you've likely noticed, even though Spring Training is in full swing, there still isn't an awful lot to talk about just yet. Traditional media always has the "best-shape-of-his-life" or new pitch story lines to fall back on. We've resorted to filling space by making fun of Kevin Youkilis, writing about hockey, or just not writing much at all.

The indefatigable Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports filled his column inches last week with a radical divisional realignment proposal. Beyond the fact that involves Rosenthal, realignment talk is something that gets under my skin. I realize that it's extremely difficult for teams like Baltimore and Toronto to share a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, and play nearly sixty games a year against those three teams thanks to the unbalanced schedule. But rather than making reactionary realignment proposals that would be rendered moot when the balance of power inevitably shifts, there are more fundamental changes that baseball could undertake to level the playing field.

Consider that all else being equal, a team in the AL West has a one in four chance of winning the division, plus a one in fourteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 32.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Meanwhile, a team in the NL Central has just a one in six chance of winning the division, plus a one in sixteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sure, the Pirates have been an extremely poorly run franchise for nearly twenty years. But compared to a club in the AL West, they have a nine percent handicap before the first pitch of the season is even thrown.

Beyond the disparity in league and division sizes, certain teams are also at a disadvantage when it comes to the gimmick of interleague play. Given the haphazard rotation of interleague matchups on a yearly basis, some teams luck into a cupcake schedule, while others have a more difficult row to hoe. Additionally, the designation of interleague rivals mean teams get an additional series against a predetermined opponent, usually geography based, regardless of the quality of that opponent. Yet all these things count equally in determining division and Wild Card winners.

The Wild Card presents another problem. All teams in a given league compete for a single Wild Card spot, yet all teams do not play equitable schedules. Aside from the inequities of interleague play, the unbalanced schedule makes it tougher for the second place team in say the AL East to win the Wild Card than it is for the second place team in the AL Central.

Lastly, the fact that division winners are guaranteed playoff spots creates the potential that more deserving teams miss the post-season. Last year, San Francisco, Texas, Florida, and Atlanta finished the regular season with records better than or equal to the Twins and Tigers. While the latter two clubs battled it out in an exciting play in game for the AL Central title, the other four clubs were off making tee times. Similar scenarios have the potential to play out every year. Before the '94 strike, the Rangers were on pace to take the AL West with a sub .500 record.

When divisional play was instituted in 1969, it made sense. Over the course of that decade, both leagues had expanded from eight to twelve teams. The fifty percent increase in size made another post-season berth worthwhile, and splitting the leagues into divisions was a natural way to identify two division champions as the post-season worthy teams. But moving to four playoff spots starting in '94 actually made the divisional system obsolete. Making those divisions unbalanced and awarding a playoff spot to a second place team was a less than ideal way of going about things. As laid out above, there are several systemic disadvantages to that system.

Baseball should do away with divisions. They should do away with interleague play. They should do away with the unbalanced schedule. Go back to the pre-1969 format. No divisions, just two leagues. The top four teams in each league make the playoffs. The top seed plays the number four seed in the first round, no more stupid rules that the Wild Card team can't play a divisional opponent in the Division Series. Having the best record in the league should have a reward, and it should be the path of least resistance to the World Series. Changes like that would do far more to increase competitive balance than changing around the divisions every time the balance of power changes.

An Ode To Edwar

At 6' 3" and 150 lbs, sporting Rec Specs and a change-up that's really more like a screwball, Edwar Ramirez always seemed as if he were created by a video game. His lanky frame and his signature pitch are similarly farfetched. Joe Torre compared his physique to that of a thermometer when he first came up and his change has been referred to as a "Bugs Bunny" pitch because it looked like batters could swing at it and miss a few times before it got to the plate.

That change-up really is a thing of beauty, rolling out of his hand a little under 80mph, just about 10mph slower than his riding 2-seam fastball and floating down and in to right handed hitters. It's all but unhittable if the batter has to protect against a legitimate fastball, but the problem is that if they are paying attention, they really don't have to. He threw the change so much that it caused a bench-clearing brawl in Double-A. He had to pare that down to 37% when he got to the Majors, but it doesn't take much game theory to figure out that 1/3 of the time is too often to throw a sweeping, 79mph pitch whose real value is in it's deception.

Mistakes on off-speed pitches are particularly deadly. Unfortunately for Edwar and the Yanks, Major League scouts and players keyed in on his reliance on that pitch, which led to the inflated home run rates that ultimately made him expendable to the Yankees, hence the ejection from the 40 man to make room for Chan Ho Park.

Rob Neyer doesn't expect Edwar to pass through waivers and end up back in Scranton and even if he does, Joe From River Ave. Blues doesn't think that he'll make it back to the Bronx again. It would be great if no team claims him in the next 8 days and he finds a way to improve his fastball and/or slider and defies the odds. But if not, he'll still be one of those interesting and memorable minor characters in recent Yankee history.

The Angels signed Ramirez in 2001 and he racked up a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings of Rookie Ball. Granted, that was in the run-friendly Pioneer League, but it wasn't a very good start to his professional career. He made it to High-A next season but struggled once he got there and was released by the Halos. Out of a job and unwilling to give up on baseball, he kept working on his craft with a friend at a field near his home in Miami. That's where he first experimented with the grip for his signature change up.

It took him a while to harness it - the Angels cut him again after Spring Training in 2006 - but he eventually caught on with Pensacola Pelicans of the Central Independent League. After striking out 93 batters in 56 innings and compiling an ERA of 1.12, he moved up to the Edinburgh Coyotes of the United League in 2007. He struck out 46 more in 25 frames as their closer before the Yankees finally scooped him up.

His ascent through the Yanks system was similarly meteoric. He pitched only 86 1/3 innings and just 40 in AAA before getting called up to the Big Leagues. He stuck out over 15 batters per 9 innings during that time, had an ERA under 1.00 and won the MiLB Minor League Reliever of the Award in '07. He struck out the side in his Major League debut and whiffed 13 per 9 IP for the remainder of the season but was saddled with a 8.14 ERA primarily because he allowed 6 home runs in 31 innings.

He was actually pretty effective in 2008, throwing 55 innings of 3.90 ERA and cutting his HR and walk rates in half from the previous season. However, in 2009, he returned to '07 form, walking too many, giving up too many hits and too many long balls.

Edwar was essentially the inverse of Shelly Duncan. Edwar was the quiet, skinny guy with glasses while Shelley was the outgoing, powerfully-built ox. Both made their Major League debuts in '07 and were let go this offseason. Both were more or less one trick ponies, Edwar with the devastating change up and the gaudy strike out totals and Shelly with the huge, looping swing and home run power. While those are the best tricks you can perform as a pitcher and hitter respectively, when they were exposed to Major League competition, Edwar's tragic flaw was his HR rate and Duncan was victimized by the K. But both guys were the sort of indelible characters that will be remembered more vividly than their contributions on the field would warrant. Best of luck to you, Edwar.

USA Loses, Hockey Wins

Good morning Fackers. Well that was one hell of a heartbreaking loss yesterday no? Team USA looked like destiny's darlings when they tied it up with just 24 seconds to go, but Sidney Crosby's goal in OT gave the gold to the Canadians. Congratulations to Canada. They had an incredibly deep team and were under a tremendous amount of pressure to take gold on their home soil. Even in the disappointment of defeat, it was quite something to hear the entire arena sing O Canada as the Maple Leaf was raised over Canada Hockey Place.

As for the U.S., as tough as it is to come so close and take home silver, they should be very proud of what they did. Coming into the tournament they were considered a long shot to even reach the gold medal game. Instead, they rolled along and never even trailed at any point until Canada took a 1-0 lead yesterday afternoon. They were the youngest squad in the tournament, and it looks like this new batch of players will be worthy heirs to the Leetch-Richter-Chelios-Modano-Tkachuk-LeClair-Hull-et. al. group that set the bar so high through the 1996 World Cup and 2002 Olympics. That is of course unless the NHL pulls the plug on player participation in 2014 Games.

Even in defeat, Team USA earned honors. Goalie Ryan Miller was named Tournament MVP; Brian Rafalski earned top defenseman honors, and forward Zach Parise joined them on the all-tournament team.

Beyond that, we were treated to an outstanding two weeks of hockey that I hope will have impact that lasts beyond the heightened interest of the past several days. For all those who have made comments to the effect of "now I can stop caring about hockey for another four years", please realize that what we've witnessed over the past two weeks is not unique to the Olympics. The level of intensity shown throughout the Olympics is no different that what's on display for two full months each year during the NHL playoffs. The advent of widescreen televisions and HDTV has made hockey on television better than ever but it's no comparison to hockey in person. For my money, no sport is so markedly better in person than on TV than hockey. Do yourselves a favor and find out for yourselves.

And with that, I'll stop talking about hockey again and we'll get back to baseball. Spring Training games start Wednesday. Soon we'll have something resembling real baseball to talk about.

Photo credit: USA Today

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Going For The Gold


The outstanding Men's Ice Hockey tournament will wrap up this afternoon with the Gold Medal Game between the U.S. and Canada. These two squads met last Sunday, with the U.S. taking a 5-3 victory to finish group play undefeated.

Since then, the U.S. beat Switzerland in the quarterfinals Wednesday and trounced Finland in the semis on Friday, scoring six goals in the game's first fourteen minutes. Team USA continues to get superb goaltending from Ryan Miller, who bettered Switzerland's Jonas Hiller and Finland's Mikka Kiprusoff, the only other goalies in the tournament who have come close to Miller's level of play.

As for the Canadians, their loss to the U.S. and the point lost via a shootout victory over the Swiss in group play left them with the sixth seed. With Roberto Luongo replacing Martin Brodeur between the pipes, they beat up on Germany 8-2 on Tuesday, and then faced Russia on Wednesday. What many predicted to be the eventual Gold Medal Game entering the tournament was reduced to a quarterfinal game, and the expected heavyweight match between the two deepest teams in the tournament was a laugher, with Canada winning 7-3. In the semis on Friday, Canada jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Slovakia, then withstood a late rally to take a 3-2 victory.

Last week's match up came one day short of the thirtieth anniversary of the Miracle on Ice; today's game comes on the fiftieth anniversary of the U.S. winning gold at the 1960 Games. This is also a rematch of the 2002 Gold Medal Game, when the Canadians took gold on American soil. The U.S. looks to return the favor today.

It's tough enough to defeat a team like Canada once in this tournament, let alone twice. It's even tougher to do it when the gold medal is on the line and the entirety of the arena is behind the Canadians. But this U.S. team is talented, has had an outstanding run through this tournament, and has the best player at the most important position. That'll go a long way towards evening the odds, and anything can happen in a single game. Puck drops at 3:15 EST. Let's go USA!

Sunday Morning Link Buffet

Good morning, Fackers. Here are a few things to check out before the population of hockey fans in the country increases exponentially at around 3:00.

There are three features in the local broadsheets on Robinson Cano today. The first one comes from Mark Fiensand in the Daily News. The scribe talked to Brian Cashman about Cano's potential and Cash said:
He's already one of the premier guys in the game, but that's the only thing separating him from taking it to a whole other level. If he can be more selective at the plate, he could have a Hall of Fame-type career.
Like we've said before, Cano's ability to make contact with balls out of the zone makes it difficult for him to be patient. For him to get better, it would involve laying off of pitches he knows he can hit in order to wait for ones that he could hit harder. These decisions occur in a split second and are more a matter of intuition than choice. But maybe with some hard work he could make that jump.

The second and third Cano articles come from Bob Klapisch and Joel Sherman and are both about Cano "taking it to the next level" as well; each thinks Cano can step up to fill the void in the #5 slot in the line up left by Hideki Matsui. Sherman talks about improving Robby's production with runners in scoring position while Klapisch compares Cano to Dustin Pedrioa.

Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger talked with Jesus Montero about working on cars with his father and how that might translate to improving his skills as a catcher:
What about [working on race cars] makes it worthwhile for you?

I like to have fun. People teach me. I know already a couple of things. You have to do it perfect. If you do it wrong, the engine doesn’t work. Those engines have so much power. They have to be perfect for the race. So we try to pay attention every single time when we’re doing something. That’s why I like it.

How much of that translates to baseball, especially learning a position like catcher, where you’ve got to deal with a lot of details?

Catching is like a little bit more fun for me. It’s fun to control the game, to be behind the plate, calling pitches, to be like the third manager of the game. And it’s about having fun in the game, try to make my pitchers laugh all the time.
In the Post, Jorge Posada acknowledges the about the amount of catching talent in the Yankees' system (including Montero), but says he's is going to make it tough for them to take his place. Let's hope he's right.

Via Joe from River Ave. Blues, there is a quick story in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about Ross Olhendorf, Steven Jackson, Anthony Claggett and Daniel McCutchen sharing a house together in Bradenton for Spring Training. Sounds like a the four former Yankees are having a blast.

Chan Ho Park has arrived. Well, at least his stuff has shown up. [Update: Edwar Ramirez has been DFA'd to make room for Park]

A-Rod bumped up his $400,000 Mercedes Maybach while texting on his phone. He also reportedly broke up with the blonde Miami heiress he was dating. What a difference a year makes.

David Pinto at Baseball Musings takes a look at the Yankees offense and suggests that Nick Johnson's value might be maximized batting "second leadoff" or ninth. It won't happen but it's an interesting thought.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Carl Crawford, "Street" And Prejudice

Yesterday, Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily wrote a interesting and thoughtful post about some comments that Steve Lombardi from Was Watching made in reference to Carl Crawford. Rob made some even-handed commentary on a delicate subject but more has come up since his post was written and I wanted to take a moment to highlight the issue here.

Riffing on a report from Jon Heyman about the Yankees possible interest in Crawford, Lombardi stated matter-of-factly:
Two things about Carl Crawford: One, he’s very “street.” Think Mickey Rivers meets Rickey Henderson – not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Okay, we all know "street" is a another term for "ghetto", but with a slightly less overt racial connotation. You can say that there "isn't anything wrong with that", but the fact of the matter is that you're still judging someone that you don't personally know based on a few things you've gleaned from watching them on TV. Why Steve even felt the need to point this out, I don't know, but he then went on to say:
Two, I dunno why…but… I just have this feeling that he’s one of those players who will be out of the game by the time he’s 35 years old. Granted, that’s not until 2017. And, I could be totally wrong on this… and he’ll be a Tim Raines type who plays into his late 30’s.

I’m just saying… if it were me, I’d be careful about giving him a very long term deal once he hits the free agent market. I’d be very concerned about going more than 5 years on an offer. But, that’s just me…
Lombardi has since denied that those two "points" (if you can even call them that) were connected, but if the hunch about Crawford being out of the game when he's 35 isn't related to the presumption that he's "street", then where did it come from? As Tom Tango is fond of saying, "Summary opinion without evidence is the very definition of bullsh!t". And Steve's statement is either A) prejudiced, B) bullshit, or C) both.

Additionally, given how much Lombardi criticizes Brian Cashman, I find his "analysis" of the Crawford situation to be endlessly amusing. Steve just has a feeling that Carl Crawford won't have a long career, so the Yankees should be careful about giving more than 5 years (as if any long term signing wouldn't be made with care). At least the Yankee GM bases decisions on tangible things that can be supported with evidence, as opposed to abstract feelings and hunches that admittedly can't be explained ("I dunno why... but...").

Predictably, people jumped on him in the comments about this, particularly the use of "street" and Lombardi attempted to "clarify" himself:
Just to clarify the “street” comment…

If you’ve ever heard Crawford interviewed, you probably understand this…

His communication skills are very far from polished. He’s not Jeter, Granderson, A-Rod or Teixiera like in terms of the way he presents himself verbally.

Further, have you seen the huge tattoo on the side of his neck? Somehow, I don’t think you’ll see Mariano Rivera or Andy Pettitte running out and getting one of those too.
Carl Crawford isn't under consideration to be the Yankees' next official spokesperson, so I'm not sure why his communication skills or the placement of his tattoos are relevant. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and many other players have a ton of tattoos. Joba Chamberlain isn't very good with the media. Would you like to use those things to infer things about their respective characters, Steve?

Late yesterday, Lombardi again attempted to "clear up" his comments about Crawford by citing the fact that he is a fan of Rickey Henderson:
Yeah, Rickey Henderson – who is really no different from Carl Crawford in terms of his image or whatever you want to call it. Really, the only difference between Henderson and Crawford is that Henderson had a better batting eye and played in the majors for a quarter-century whereas Crawford just has eight season under his belt, to date.

So, if I were a racist, explain to me why I have so much respect and admiration for Rickey Henderson – and have a picture of him hanging in the rooms of all my children? Does that sound like a racist to you?
"I respect Rickey Henderson as a baseball player. HOW COULD I POSSIBLY BE RACIST?!?!"

Let's ditch the R-word. Because apparently if you respect an athlete of a certain race and hang a picture of them in your children's rooms, that absolves you from being a racist in any other capacity.

What were talking about here is prejudice, which, to be clear is, "a preconceived belief, opinion, or judgment made without ascertaining the facts of a case". The biggest problem with Lombardi's statements is not the fact that they may or may not have racial connotations. I take issue with trying to draw conclusions about a person's character based a few interviews and the placement of one tattoo.

Rob from BBD actually took the time to ask a Rays blogger about Crawford's reputation as a person, instead of just assuming he already knew what he was about. Here's a bit of what Devon Rodgers from Rise of the Rays told Rob:
From all I have seen he is a very positive person. When I am hanging around by the field before the games, he is always joking around with the players, batboys and security staff. He is very well liked by the players and he is one of the fan favorites.
Kinda makes the tattoo and the PR skills seem irrelevant, doesn't it?

Friday, February 26, 2010

Kevin Youkilis Has A New Stat For You Fackin' Nerds: OBSTR

I don't think we should expect players to embrace statistics. It's probably unrealistic even to think they should understand them. Stats are for those of us who observe the game and would like to try to better understand the big picture. They aren't tailored for those on the field, playing in the moment.

There are limited situations wherein a player might be able to adjust their strategy thanks to stats, but as I mentioned yesterday, defense isn't one of those situations. But you'd hope that players would at least understand the impulse to quantify defense objectively. Youk? Not so much: (h/t BBTF)
I don’t know how they do it. How do you measure defense? You make an error, you make an error. You get to a ball, you don’t get to a ball. What if you have a bad hamstring and you can’t get to a ball up the line? I don’t know what they evaluate, but a good ballplayer is a good ballplayer.
Well, yes, that's exactly how they try to measure defense. By tracking who gets to balls and who doesn't. Just because you have a legitimate excuse - like an injury - for not getting to a ball doesn't mean it shouldn't count against you.

In that statement is exactly why we need objective stats. And yes a "good ballplayer is a good ballplayer", but part of being good involves defense. There is no universal truth that tells us who is good at defense. There isn't even a central source where scouts come to a consensus about who is or isn't good. UZR clearly has its flaws as a system, but it attempts to find a numerical representation of who is good and who isn't. When we get our hands on Field f/x data, UZR is likely to be left in the dust, but it's the best we have now.
Youkilis was in a jovial mood as he picked apart some of the stats of the day - particularly Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR, which is used to measure how many runs above or below average a fielder allows.

“I don’t go off all those UZRs . . . is it UZR?” Youkilis said. “I don’t even know what it is. I hope my UZR is sick, along with my OBSTR.
OBSTR? I thought Jim Bowden had just raised the bar in the field of make-believe baseball statistics when he invented the cutting edge metric "OBPATUZXYZ". However, Kevin Youkilis has apparently just upped the ante by creating the Obligatory Bullshit Stat Trivializing Rationality. It may go down as the WAR of anti-stat dunderheads.

Anyhow, since Youk isn't a fan of UZR, we thought we'd create a few, more tangible stats that he might excel in and ultimately embrace:
HErBS - Homo-Erotic Batting Stances
OCFH - Obnoxious Configurations of Facial Hair
HFTASO - Hissy Fits Thrown After Striking Out
UPCOM - Unprompted Charges Of The Mound
ABRF20 - Ass Beatings Received From a 20 year old
GWwMOB - Gritty Walks With Men On Base
EHWotF - Embarrassing Hats Worn off the Field
BBwSG - Bats Broken With Sheer Guts
PEWFC - Products Endorsed With Fecal Connotations
WMFR - Washing Machines Fucked By Rhinoceri

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Youk Zee Ahh

Via Pinto, it appears that Mr. Youkilis knows about the new frontier of defensive statistics:
Kevin Youkilis this morning when talking about the brave new world of defensive stats: "My UZR better be sick!"
"Ahh you fackin' kiddin me? It's wicked haahd to get a ball past the Youkstah!"

I think we might be dealing with a sort of Zack Grienke situation here, wherein a player knows about a stat and what it measures but doesn't really understand the metric. And for the most part, it really doesn't matter. Youk understanding the components Ultimate Zone Rating isn't going to make him a better defender. He already knows that he should try to get to every ball he possibly can. UZR isn't the type of metric that's going to lead to a strategic epiphany. It's just the best method we have for quantifying a very complex process in motion.

One small nitpick from Pinto's post. He says:
Kevin is in fact a very good fielder, much better at first than at third.
Actually, his UZR is slightly higher in his time at 3B. Granted he's logged more than twice as many innings at 1B, but he hasn't been "much better at first", despite the fact that conventional wisdom would suggest a player would perform more effectively at the "easier" defensive position.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Yanks Weakening Up The Middle, Cause For Concern?

From his perch atop the baseball blogopshere, Rob Neyer wonders if the fact that the Yankees don't have any up-and-coming stars at premium defensive positions will be their fatal flaw in years to come:
Still - and I know this is a stretch, but please bear with me - if you're looking for a small chink in the Yankee armor in the coming decade, it's that Mark Teixeira might be their best player. He'll be in his 30s, and he'll be playing first base. Ideally, your best player is a bit younger, and playing in the middle of the field. Cal Ripken. Alex Rodriguez when he played shortstop. Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Joe Morgan and Johnny Bench.

All of those fellows were the best players in their leagues at one point or another. Is there anyone now on the Yankees' roster with a decent shot at being the best player in the American League in 2011? One of the five best players in the league? I don't think so. Which probably won't matter much. But if one or two of the veterans falls off more than expected, it would be nice if the Yankees had a young superstar ready to step into the breach.
If Albert Puljos was the Yankees' first baseman, would the fact that he was their best player still be a chink in their armor? He plays first base and just turned 30 a month ago. The point being that Teixeira's position only counts against him in so far as it affects his level above replacement. The fact that the Yanks best player is a first baseman isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Still, Neyer's point is well taken. Historically, the two most decorated positions on the Yankees are center field and catcher. With the exception of the 1920's dynasty when they had both Ruth and Gehrig, when they were at their best, the Yankees have featured great players in both positions. Dickey and DiMaggio; Berra/Howard and Mantle; Munson and Murcer; Posada and Bernie. Add to that Rizzuto and Jeter at shortstop and the Yanks have a storied history of finding excellent talent at premium defensive positions.

Like any other team, if you can get great offensive production up-the-middle, it becomes much easier to build an offensive powerhouse. You can find good hitting first baseman or left fielders on the open market a lot easier than shortstops, center fielders or catchers.

However, well-rounded second baseman are quite valuable as well. The Yankees have been lucky to have Tony Lazzeri, Jerry Coleman, Joe Gordon and Gil McDougald in the past. Neyer either forgot about Robinson Cano or chose to disregard him. I think Cano has a chance to be one of the 5 best players in the AL in 2011. Maybe he isn't one of the best 5 players in baseball now, but he's either the best or second best second baseman in the AL and he's only 27 years old. In his good years, he's an incredible hitter for his position, plays above average defense and hopefully his best seasons are ahead of him.

Furthermore, the Yanks have placed a lot of emphasis on their pitching in recent years through both free agency and the draft. Sabathia and Burnett figure to comprise a solid foundation for the rotation well into the middle of the coming decade and hopefully Hughes and/or Chamberlain will establish themselves as better than average Major League starters.

Having a solid core of talent up the middle is a surefire way to build a winning team over the long term, but there are other ways to do it. Having above average talent at basically every position, a solid defense and a top notch pitching staff can certainly work in combination as well.

A Visual Representation Of Why Newspapers Are Obsolete

Morning Linkaround

Good morning, Fackers. As much of the East Coast recovers from the winter storm that swept over it last night, the Yankees are down in Tampa beginning Spring Training in earnest. While we celebrate pitchers and catchers as the beginning of camp, as Joe Girardi said earlier this week, it doesn't really kick into full gear until the position players arrive.

Most of the new arrivals had already went through their physicals and took off by the time the writers hit the clubhouse yesterday, but today they will start doing their first drills as a full squad. Of course, we've still got a while to wait before any action appears on our televisions. A week from today, the first Spring Training game (against the Pirates) will be televised on YES. Marc Carig from the Newark Star-Ledger has the full TV schedule.

Here are some other links to start off the day:
Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter put out his annual Camp Classic. In it, he examines every player not guaranteed a spot coming out of Spring Training from the 40 man on down to the non-roster invitees.

Similarly, Matthew Pouliot from Hardball Talk continues his "Diving into the Depths" series with a look at the Yankees and organizes a depth chart by position.

Dan Novick from the Hardball Times spotlights an especially sabermetric statement Joe Girardi made about Robinson Cano's performance with runners in scoring position, via LoHud.

On XM Radio last night, Brain Cashman acknowledged that Brett Gardner might be one of the best center fielders in baseball, but said that Curtis Granderson was likely to be their center fielder this season. Ben from RAB thinks that Cash's statements might be an indication that the Yanks don't see Gardner as a long term solution.

On Twitter, Joel Sherman reports that the Yankees are converting Kei Igawa to a reliever in a last ditch effort to extract value from his $46M contract. Considering Joe Girardi is almost certainly going to select two lefties for his bullpen and Boone Logan might be the front runner for that spot, it appears that Igawa will be given a real chance. You can't blame them for trying to make use of him, but the reaction from fans won't be very positive if he stumbles out of the gate.

It's about the time of year that ESPN typically starts stacking new baseball "analysts" - read: past players and executives - on top to their already bloated crew. To wit, they announced that Aaron Boone and J.P. Ricciardi will be contributing to Baseball Tonight this coming season. We Yankee fans like Boone, and Ricciardi seems like a bright, sabermetrically-inclined sort of a guy, but they might need to add a second row of seats on the set of the show.

Larry from Wezen-Ball put together an interesting graphic showing the history of every Major League park marked with the Championships and Pennants won by the team that in habits it.

The ubiquitous Jonah Keri recently appeared on two podcasts that are worth checking out. The first is FanGraphs Audio, which as host Caston Cistulli proclaims "is like a bald eagle: less endangered now than it had been until recently". The second appearance is on Kissing Suzy Kolber's House of Punte. The relevant portion begins just after the 18:00 mark and there is a bit of overlap with the FanGraphs interview. The typical crowd over at KSK will probably not take kindly to the decided lack of poop humor, dick jokes and NFL character sketches, but you folks will likely enjoy the material.

Ozzie Guillen is on Twitter and already dropping gems like "going to eat in half hour why dye no have a job ?". In honor of his presence, Jonah compiles a list of the 9 sports figures who aren't on Twitter but would be in a perfect world.

Baseball America released its Top 100 Prospects list. Jesus Montero is 4th and they his his power a perfect 80 on the scouting scale. The only other Yankees was Austin Romine and he is 86th. Austin Jackson is 76th. Pat Andriola from the Hardball Times lists a couple of things he disagrees with, including ranking Jackson higher than Fernando Martinez.

We might have linked to this already, but for a more detailed and Yankee-centric prospect picture, check out Mike from RAB's Top 30.


Josh from Jorge Says No! wonders if the Yankees reluctance to give Johnny Damon a two year deal foreshadows their interest in Carl Crawford.