First Third Projections - Pitching

[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments.

We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Matt examined the offense earlier. Below are the five starters and three relievers who warrant comparisons to their projections. We excluded Brain Bruney, Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte since their returns are yet to be determined. We didn't look at Chien Ming Wang because his extrapolated numbers project him to give up 90 runs in 12 starts.]

(Click on any chart for a larger view)

A 3.46 ERA isn't gaudy by any means, but after stumbling out of the gate CC Sabathia has certainly settled down. He's won four out of his last five starts and threw 8 innings of three run ball in the one he didn't. CC's K's are down and walks are up from his career norms, but both of those stats are trending in the right direction. ZIPS has a more favorable projection than the extrapolations and my gut feeling even is a little more bullish than the ZIPS.

Two complaints with Joba's numbers: He's walking 4.6/9IP and only lasting about 5 2/3 IP per start. These two things are both influenced and counterbalanced by Joba registering nearly one strikeout per inning. He gets deep in the count looking for the put-away pitch, driving up his pitch count and giving out some free passes, but can neutralize threats by tallying K's. This explains how he can simultaneously sport a 1.44WHIP and a 3.71ERA. His start on June 1st showed huge steps forward in both of these departments (8IP, 2BB).

Like Joba, Andy Pettitte's WHIP is predictive of a much higher ERA. Unlike his young rotation mate, it's not as easy to explain. Pettitte is giving up comfortably more than a hit per inning and walking nearly 4 per 9. His strikeout rate isn't high and he's only induced 4 double play balls. The answer lies in the fact that of Pettitte's 77 hits, 55 have been singles. He's always had an uncanny knack for allowing baserunners and not giving up many extra base hits goes a long way towards limiting the damage.


It's the 11 long balls allowed, the grand slam to Jason Varitek in particular, that have inflated A.J. Burnett's ERA. The walk rate is fairly high but he's still striking out twice as many as he is giving a free pass to. The ZIPS projection has AJ's ERA coming back down, but assumes that he will make three fewer starts than he is on pace to and toss about twenty fewer innings. That would be the equivalent of roughly one stint on the DL, which wouldn't be too shocking, given his injury history.

Hughes has already thrown more big league innings than he did all of last year, with a lower ERA, so does this classify as a step forward? He's won three games (0 last year) and has strong K/9. The thing that is killing Phil, just like Burnett, is his HR rate. Allowing a HR roughly once per five innings is too high for a Major League starter. He'll be back in the rotation at some point, but it will be interesting to see how he looks out of the 'pen.

Mo gave up three runs in April, three runs in May and is now sitting awfully close to his career ERA of 2.29. He's walked one batter in 22 innings while striking out 28. He's picked up 12 saves thus far, on pace for 36. His career average? 38. The man machine is a model of consistency in a role where such steadiness, especially over the long term, is incredibly tough to find. Cherish Mo.

For some reason, the ZIPS for Phil Coke predict him making 10 starts, which is rather curious considering he's no better than the Yankees 9th or 10th option within the organization. This is lone example of where our predictions might be more relevant than the ZIPS. A 1.14 WHIP should be good for a better ERA than 4.50, but forgive me if this sounds redundant... he gives up too many homers (5 in 22IP). Once that rate declines, so will his ERA. The bad news is that 4 of those knocks came in May, not exactly an indicator that the ratio is headed in the right direction.

Okay, last but not least... Oop, no, he's actually least as well. Jose Veras. Here's the good news - He's giving up fewer than one hit per inning! Here's the bad news - Everything else. In 22 IP, he's allowed 14BB, 16ER, 3HBP and 4HR. If he didn't throw 96mph he would have been DFA'd a long time ago. ZIPS thinks his ERA will come back down, which it had better, provided he has any interest in remaining a member of the Yankees.

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And finally, no extrapolation needed for this one, a look at the starting staff and the bullpen as whole units.

Both Matt and I were initially surprised that the bullpen had an ERA that was close to as good as the starting rotation's. But it makes sense when you consider Chien Ming Wang has given up 30 runs in 18 2/3 innings and Mo is always back there keeping the bullpen's number down. Relievers are both walking and striking out more per nine innings but starters are allowing more hits, partially due to a .37 difference in BABIP.

The most surprising discrepancy between the two (highlighted on the far right on the chart) was that relievers have given up nearly as many HR as starters (35 to 39) in only 54% of the IP (171 to 316). That's a pretty huge disparity, and a ratio for relievers (1.84/9IP) that should come back down to earth eventually.

First Third Projections - Hitting

[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments.

We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury. Jay will be back later with pitchers.]

(Click on any chart for a larger view)

Following off-season shoulder surgery, Jorge Posada was perhaps the biggest concern entering the season. His shoulder has been just fine; it was his hamstring that put him on the shelf for a month. When healthy he's been better than can be expected, especially for a 37 year old catcher. ZIPS projects him to fall off from his current torrid pace, but the .921 OPS would be the 4th best of his career.

Teixeira had an awful, awful April followed by an unbelievable May. As such, he's leveled out, and both his extrapolation and ZIPS leave him just about where you'd expect him to be for a full season. ZIPS predicts the power numbers will drop off a bit.


Cano has rebounded nicely from a very poor 2008. Though he's dropped off a bit from his hot start, he still looks likely to finish in a good spot. His refusal to take a walk still dogs him though, as his OBP is slightly below league average despite being a .300 hitter. It is also well below his 2006-2007 numbers. If Cano doesn't improve his walk rate he will continue to be entirely reliant upon his hitting for his offensive value. As such, it'd be nicer to see him in the .320 - .330 range.


Those are good numbers for a 162 game season, nevermind from someone who missed the first month plus. ZIPS sees the AVG getting back up to a more A-Rod like level, and there's no reason to believe that it won't.


It's been a bit of a renaissance for the Captain this year as his line looks good. As it does for others, ZIPS sees his power dropping off from its current pace, but 16 HRs would still be his highest total since 2005. It's interesting to note that despite getting on base at a good clip as the leadoff hitter for a potent offense, Jeter is not a lock for 100 runs.



Hideki Matsui is the streakiest player I've ever seen. Already this season he's been through about two cycles of looking like crap followed by catching fire. ZIPS projects more of the latter the rest of the way and I hope it's right. This is almost certainly Matsui's last hurrah in pinstripes and he deserves to go out on a high note.


Johnny Damon is in a contract year in he's playing like it. He's on pace for 33 HRs, though ZIPS projects a more realistic 23, one short of his career high set in 2006. The .851 OPS predicted by ZIPS would be the 4th highest of Damon's career and his best since 2004. If he can finish out that way I'd gladly give him one year or one plus an option.


Swish hit like Babe Ruth in April and like Ruth Bader Ginsburg in May. He's getting hot again of late. Both the extrapolation and ZIPS predict just about what you'd expect from Swish: slightly below average AVG, great OBP, and good power. I'll gladly take that.


I may not be 100% sold on Melky still, but after his disastrous 2008 I can't be anything but thrilled with his 2009 thus far. Whether it's for real remains to be seen, but he's rebounded nicely and has shown a flair for the dramatic with all his late inning heroics. ZIPS sees him coming back to earth a bit by season's end, but his projected AVG, SLG, and OPS would all be career highs. I'm a little surprised to see his projected OBP that low, but Melky has been taking fewer walks as this season has progressed. Like his buddy Cano, Melky would benefit greatly from more plate discipline. I'd love to see his OBP hold at its current .360 clip, the same mark he posted in 2006.

After a disastrous start that saw him lose the CF job to Melky, Gardner has come on strong of late. He has absolutely zero power, so in order for him to offer any real offensive value he's going to have to get on base at better than the league average rate that ZIPS projects, thereby allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. The problem is that the good OBP skills Gardner displayed in the minors haven't quite translated to MLB. When you're a rookie with no pop pitchers will challenge you, making it much harder to draw a free pass. That said, given his current role on the team, Gardner looks to be doing his job adequately.

Game 55: Let It Rain

Now that the game has been officially postponed I think we can say "let it rain". Get it out of your system, Weather Gods, cause once this system passes it's shaping up to be a pretty nice weekened. 

Have a good night, folks. Wet your whistle but stay dry.

And up next, we got the Likwidest,
It's so drunk, it's ridiculous,
When Tash get on the mic,
I swing my shit like Jack Nicklaus

Or if you prefer...

Let it rain (let it rain), 

Let it rain (let it rain), 

Let your love rain down on me.

Could Pettitte Win 300?

David Pinto ponders the question: 

The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced Andy Pettitte could easily win 300 games. He’s eighty wins away right now at age 37. He talks about retiring, but his competitive spirit (and large paychecks) keep bringing him back.

He’s a left-hander who induces ground balls. The way balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium to rightfield, the probability exists that Andy’s combination of physical attribute and pitching skill will prove very valuable to the Yankees (although he’s allowed seven of his eight home runs in the Bronx this season).

Finally, Pettitte has the potential to remake himself into a slower pitcher, to become Jamie Moyer. Moyer didn’t start winning game in earnest until he was 33. He totaled 59 wins at that point and now has 250. Andy might get some coaching from Mike Mussina in this regard. That will allow Andy to be effective as age takes it’s toll.

I don't think the fact that Pettitte seems to toy around with retirement just about as much as anyone this side of Brett Favre can be glossed over. He's a family man and it's often said that being away from them for so long takes a toll on him. I get the feeling that Pettitte is thisclose to hanging up the cleats at the end of every season, but Pinto is right... he does keep coming back. 

Logistically, let's see how this would work: Pettitte is on pace for 15 wins this year which is reasonable considering he had 14 and 15 in his past two, respectively. That would leave him at 230 and 38 years old after this year. Even if he continued to win 15 games a year, it would still take him nearly 5 years to get to 300. Does anyone think Pettitte is going to keep trucking 'til he's 43? He has admitted to being injured for the second half of last year and his back acting up as we speak.  

Lastly, Jamie Moyer is the exception to the rule, a total outlier who shouldn't be used as a comparable to anyone. How many pitchers in the majors are older than 43 right now? Two: The Big Unit (45), Moyer (46). Kenny Rogers (another lefty) turned 43 last year and seems like a better comparable for Pettitte than either of the other two (B-R doesn't think any of the three are in Pettitte's top 10). The Gambler won 61 games from 2004-2008 (ages 38-43) playing in Texas and Detroit but his effectiveness steadily eroded towards the end.  

I suppose anything is possible, and it's fun to imagine someone on the Yankees becoming a 300 game winner (I'm not counting Clemens since he only won a relatively small portion in pinstripes - 83). But if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Joba Chamberlain before Andy Pettitte. 

I Am Legend

Well, I was for a few hours yesterday afternoon, anyway. 

For the second half of my whirlwind birthday tour, a good friend who works for a major financial institution, invited me to accompany her to yesterday's Yankees game and sit in her company's Legends seats. I don't care where my tickets are when I go to a game, since I always end up standing in the same spot. There is no chance I would actually purchase one of these seats for myself, but since this outing was on Global Financial Conglomerate, Inc., I was more than willing to see what the "Legends Experience (R) (C) (TM)" was all about. 

Matt already did a fine job summing up what happened on the field, so I'm just going to try to paint a picture of the lavishness and excess that I partook in yesterday. 

The Legends Suites have their own (somewhat understated) entrance to the Stadium just past Gate 4, if you are walking from Babe Ruth Plaza. I was late, but not to worry because the Legends entrance has a little Will Call podium right there, and all I had to do was show my ID to get my ticket. There were probably 10 Yankee employees in this entry way, at least four of whom were just standing there smiling, ready to wait on ticket holders hand and foot. I tried to think of some ridiculous request I could make to test the limits of what they were willing to do, but couldn't come up with anything. I instead walked over and was affixed with a green Yankees wristband, or as it should be called, a gluttony bracelet.

I walked though a foyer framed by blue glass with little interlocking NYs, which is probably the defining design feature of the Legends club. It opened up into one of the two restaurants, this one with 10 serving stations in the middle, and tables all around the outside. Lauren recommended that we get to-go plates so we could take our food to our seats. I worked my way around, hitting up the most carnivorous options, so as to ensure I got my money's worth (or rather, her company's money's worth). She went with the grilled prawns and lobster ravioli and our two other friends sampled even more deliciousness. I caught Johnny Damon's first inning homer on one of the many giant flat screens as I was waiting for my suckling pig to be carved. 

Plates fairly heaped with fine food, we worked our way to our seats, which were in Section 27b. You have to first go through the 

downstairs restaurant, which has a ridiculous amount of free stuff for the taking. It's kind of disgusting, actually. There was a little station with the mini-helmets that you could fill up with candy. Have fun trying to control your kids here!

Next to that, they had free coffee, and one of those huge rolling hot dog grills. Just walk up and take how ever many you want. Around the corner, just before you stepped outside, they had a table, loaded with Twizzlers, Cracker Jacks, M&Ms, peanuts... just help yourself (fat ass). A guy walked up to this station while we were standing there and goes "I don't know what to say about this...". I offered "Only in America?"

Our seats were past the photographers up the third base line, a few rows from the field. As we sat down, attendants brought over trays that locked into your cup holders and had indentations specifically made for the to-go plates along with spots for two drinks. 

I couldn't help but dread that a foul ball would come rocketing down the line when I was cutting into my lamb chop or taking a bite of my BBQ chicken sandwich and be left completely defenseless. Luckily, Gary Sheffield plays across town now. 

The seats were awesome, don't get my wrong, but the really unbelievable thing about the whole Legends package is that there is a menu and you can just keep ordering from it constantly. The only thing that costs money is the alcohol. You should be able to click on the image and make it large enough to read. They had simple stuff that you would expect at a baseball game, but it also went well above and beyond that.

We just kept ordering, without worrying if it would be eaten. Lobster rolls, zucchini and potato chips with Gorgonzola cheese, crab and shrimp salad, truffle fries, nachos, ice cream sandwiches, cheesecake on a stick. Yeah, cheesecake on a fucking stick. It was like a Ben & Jerry's Peace Pop, except impossibly, even less healthy. We ordered a few $9 Coronas but I was mostly just drunk off of the food. 

Oh yeah, so I don't know if I mentioned it, but there was actually a baseball game occurring during all of this face-stuffing.

A-Rod was the closest player to us and the two ladies in our group quickly noticed that, as Del Griffith from Planes, Trains and Automobiles might say, "Larry Bird doesn't do as much ball-handling in one night as [A-Rod does] in [a half inning]!"

It was a pretty sweet game, with the 5 run fifth inning and all. Teixeria's three run double rolled right in front of us. Amazingly, again with me in attendance, Melky Cabrera was the hero of the game. Just to refresh, after Melky's first walk off of the year, I wrote this post. Since then, I have been in the house for his other two walk offs and yesterday's home run. I'm not sure what that means, karmically speaking, but I'm enjoying it. 

It was an incredible experience, certainly different than any other sporting event I've ever been to. The odd part is that the more you take advantage of what the seats have to offer, the less you pay attention to the game. We were constantly talking to the servers, ordering, accepting, eating, paying for the beers, and trying to find a place for all the empty containers that kept piling up...

It first and foremost is a luxury experience and secondarily a sporting experience. It's so above and beyond what someone would actually need or probably even want from a baseball game, it's ridiculous. It would make sense if it was a more scaled down offering, only available to the $2500 $1250 ticket holders. That would have helped them sell the more expensive tickets and created a greater air of exclusivity around them. However, they have already crossed the Rubicon on this one. The facilities are huge and designed to cater to the entire Legends section. 

If I could offer one piece of advice to someone lucky enough to stumble into tickets like I did (thanks, Lauren!), it would be... Bring your appetite! (and a bag to hoard all of the free stuff you can grab).

David Ortiz's Eye Chart

Big Papi, after being left out of the lineup for the Sox' victory 6-3 over the Tigers, is going to have his eyesight checked:

"I've been thinking about getting my eyes checked -- for real," he said. "My vision has always been 20-20, and I'm not feeling anything crazy, but I'm going to get it checked out."

Being the helpful chaps we are over here are Fack Youk, we have set up a free and easy eye test that our good buddy David or any other washed up slugger can use. Papi, just print the image below out on an 8 1/2" x 11" sheet of paper, tape it to the wall at eye level, and stand 10 feet away.

Wang Dang Doodle

I'm not entirely sure that Wang Dang Doodle is the appropriate title for this entry, given Wang's final line on the day. However, I was remiss in not choosing Wang Dang Doodle for the game preview, given the passing of the Queen of the Blues, Koko Taylor, yesterday. Wang Dang Doodle, though originally a Willie Dixon composition for Howlin' Wolf, was Taylor's signature song. Get Back was probably the better pick for the game itself, but we wish Ms. Taylor all the best as she moves on to the great gig in the sky.

For the second time in three days I'm doing the game recap without actually having watched the game, so today's recap will be based mainly on my observations from watching GameDay on MLB.com. From that vantage point it seemed liked a tale of two games for Wang. It took Wang eight pitches to strike out lead-off hitter Ian Kinsler, and from there he cruised through the rest of his first trip through the order. By the time Kinsler came back around with two outs in the third, Wang had thrown only 29 pitches, 21 of them for strikes (72.4%). He allowed just one hit, K'd 3, recorded four groundball outs, four one-pitch outs, and needed more than five pitches for just one batter. He was ahead 1-0 thanks to a Johnny Damon lead-off HR.

I was surprised at the Rangers' refusal to make Wang work the first time through. Part of that was a function of his being around the plate so consistently, but one would think that a potent offensive line-up like Texas would exploit Wang's previously disclosed 80 pitch limit and wear him out. His teammates might not have followed his lead the first time through, but Kinsler's second PA changed the tenor of the afternoon.

Kinsler worked a six pitch walk, with ball four being a wild pitch that allowed Chris Davis to score. Michael Young followed with a basehit, and Blalock singled Kinsler home, before Nelson Cruz got caught looking to end the inning. All told, it took Wang 16 pitches to get that third out, surrending two runs, two hits, and a walk in the process.

Wang would scuttle again in the fourth, giving up lead-off single, followed by two doubles for two more runs. He then bore down to record his fifth K and his fifth and sixth groundball outs to get out of the inning down 4-0.

CMW looked like he had settled back down to start the fifth. He got two quick groundball outs, before leaving a 2-1 sinker up in the zone to Nelson Cruz, who promptly deposited it over the centerfield fence. It was the last pitch Wang through threw on the afternoon.






Despite being down 5-1, I didn't think Wang pitched that badly. I don't know how it looked, but GameDay showed his velocity and movement on his sinker as being good. He threw 68% of his pitches for strikes. He got his requisite groundouts, and even struck out five for good measure. His problems may have been a result of his need to build up stamina after all he's been through this season, which is why I question the decision to pull him from an inning with no one on and two outs, while he was still eleven pitches short of his limit.

Be that as it may, Girardi predictably turned to Alfredo Aceves to relieve Wang. After walking the first two batters he faced on nine pitches, "Ace" needed just one pitch to get Chris Davis to pop out and end the inning.

In the bottom of the fifth, the Yankees retook the lead, taking Wang off the hook. Cervelli and Pena singled, then Damon and Swisher walked. A three run double off the glove of Michael Young by Teixeira tied the score, then A-Rod gave the Yankees the lead with RBI single. There was still no one out, and the Yankees continued the threat with a Robinson Cano single, the seventh straight Yankee to reach safely. However, a tough luck double play liner by Matsui eased the threat and a Melky Cabrera groundout ended the inning.

An Ian Kinsler home run tied the score at six in the sixth, and thanks to the relief work of Aceves, Phil Coke, and David Robertson, it remained that way into the bottom of the eighth. Cano led off with a walk. With one out, Melky Cabrera stepped to the plate and continued his late inning home heroics by knocking a two-run homer to left.

Mariano Rivera pitched into and out of trouble in the ninth, putting the tying run on base, before ending the threat and giving David Robertson a one pitch win. A third of the way through the season, the Yankees are tied for first place, tied for the best record in the AL, and on pace for 96 wins. More silly extrapolations to come tomorrow.

Game 54: Get Back

I love afternoon matinee games. Baseball is made for sunny afternoons, and while the forecast for today isn't perfect, baseball in the daylight is still a treat. When I was younger, I lived for the days there was a weekday afternoon game on during summer vacation. Those were the best. I'd love to see the MLB Network eventually broadcast a daily afternoon game during the summer months. I only wish I still had months-long summer vacations to enjoy it.

The Yankees continually do their opponents a favor by having these get-away-day matinees, allowing them to skip town early and get to the next city in time for a good night's sleep. It's a luxury the Yankees are rarely afforded on the road, as most teams need the night time start to ensure a good gate. Even with all the moaning about the new Stadium, the Yanks would still draw close to a packed house even if the game started at sunrise.

Despite my affinity for these afternoon contests, I'll be stuck in my luxurious cubicle following on GameCast, while Jay will be in attendance. Rest assured there will be more on that later. I'll bide my time knowing I already have tickets for a few other weekday afternoon contests later in the season.

Today's game is all about getting back. The Yankees look to get back to 10 games over 0.500, hopefully on their way to 15, 20, and 25 over. They also look to get back to another axiom from the Torre years: winning the series, as they try to take the rubber game of this three game set. They look to get the offense and starting pitching back to where it was before poor performances from both yesterday. Mark Teixeira gets back in the line-up after he missed yesterday's game with a sprained ankle suffered while getting back at the Rangers on Tuesday night.

But more than anything else, today's game is about getting Chien-Ming Wang back. Getting him back from the pitching limbo he's been in for the past two weeks. Getting him back to the starting rotation. And most importantly getting him back to the form he displayed from the start of his career up through his season ending foot injury last year.

Expectations are the first step towards disappointment, so I'm trying not to expect too much from the Wanger today. He's looked good in his last two relief outings, turning in 5 scoreless innings and allowing only 3 hits and a walk against 3 Ks. But I don't know that we can draw anything other than an optomistic outlook from that. Getting Wang back to where he once belonged will likely be a long and arduous process given the injury, the beatings he took early this season, and they way he's been mishandled over the past few weeks. Regardless, today is an important first step.

Wang should be good for about 80 pitches today, which is assuredly why Alfredo Aceves was held out of yesterday's game. If he's on, Wang may be able to go six, if he's off the Texas line-up can chew up his pitch limit in the fourth. If he's really off he won't even make it that far.

As an aside, with Aceves held out yesterday, Brett Tomko was the de facto long man, going three impressive innings in relief of Pettitte. Remember when the Yankees said Tomko couldn't be used for multiple innings because he had been conditioned as a short-stint reliever this year? Another pearl of honesty from Girardi and company. I guess they feel that he was sufficiently stretched out after making two appearances covering two innings in the last two weeks. Remind me again why this guy is on the roster?

[UPDATE 12:02 PM: Pete Abe is reporting that Burnett has been suspended six games by MLB for throwing at Nelson Cruz Tuesday. How he can be suspended for six games due to an action that didn't get him tossed from one is a little beyond me. But it makes perfect sense in the pretzel logic that is the MLB discipline policy. Burnett plans to appeal, but we may see Hughes back in the rotation sooner than thought. Even if he serves the full six, I don't care. Burnett did what he needed to do for his team. If that's the price to pay for it then so be it. Meanwhile I'll wait for MLB to suspend Padilla as well. That is if Texas doesn't cut him first.]

Please use this as a game thread. We're not quite ready for a fancy live game chat, but I imagine several of you, like me, are stuck at some soul-sucking office today rather than sitting in front of your big screen with a frosty cold one. So let's commiserate in the comments.

Here's your video for today. As a special matinee bonus we'll do this a little differently. Rather than your typical video of the song or a live peformance we'll give you a two part, behind the scenes look at the making of Get Back. In true Fack Youk fashion, it's in black and white. So in my best Ed Sullivan voice "Ladies and Gentleman, the Beatles" with the late, great Billy Preston on the keys. Enjoy.

Get back, Get back,
Get back to where you once belonged.

Youkalike

As we've alluded to recently, I've been traveling the past several days, hence my absence in these parts.

My excursion began Friday. A full day at work turned into a late night at the office as I rushed to make the final preparations for my trip. I caught a bit of the game on the radio and returned home just in time to see Alfredo Aceves get out of the jam Andy Pettitte's balky back had gotten into. I then promptly fell asleep. It would be the last Yankee baseball I would view live until last night.

Saturday saw me up at 6 AM to run errands, begin packing, make another trip to the office, etc. By late morning I was on the road to the belly of the beast - Boston - for the wedding of a former college roomate. In Boston with the Yankees in first place - it was like college all over again, unfortunately it's only late May.

Prior to the wedding, we pre-gamed at a bar in Newton. The Sox-Jays game was on, and there were a handful of fans watching at the bar, one of whom sported a Youk shirt, goatee, and a hat of Youk's alma-mater: the Cincinnati Bearcats. Unfortunatley I couldn't inconspicuously snap a picture before he left, so fack him too.

The wedding was a lot of fun. While not at all informal, the bride and groom were not overly serious about things, with the main focus being that everyone had a damn good time. There was an open bar to ensure that. Unfortunately for me, I had a flight to catch at 6:15 the next morning, so in a move that was antithetical to every fiber of my existence, I had to reign in my behavior at an open bar. My pride still hurts.

At the reception, I was seated at a table (the Pabst Blue Ribbon table) with all the old college buddies, including Gripp. You all may remember Gripp from the rip-roaring exchange we had here last week, which in the end, was tame compared to the emails we were trading. Thankfully, the topic of Yankee centerfielders was not broached, civility was maintained, and the reception wasn't ruined for anyone.

Perhaps taking a cue from the bride and groom, the atmosphere was rather loose at the PBR table. At one point I noticed that each of us had a potentially humorous butter plate at our place setting, so my artistic side took over:

Phallic butter balls and knives. Always a crowd pleaser. It ilicited a few good laughs at the table. Unfortunately, it happened during the toast. So, yeah, sorry about that.

The highlight of the reception however was the brother of the bride. He's a dead-ringer for a certain Red Sox first baseman, so of course, given our name here, I had to document it:


Sorry about the glare. And the low quality. Despite it being taken rather early on in the night, my photographer was already drunk. The picture doesn't really do it justice. You should have seen him with a Sox cap on during the bachelor party; it was uncanny. Thanks for being a good sport Ted.

From there, the band took the stage. Though perhaps not as entertaining as the wedding band in Old School, The B Street Band was great. Mostly Springsteen covers, with some other crowd pleasers thrown in for good measure. Except for when they played Sweet Caroline, I couldn't really complain.

The reception ran until 2:00 AM. I was in my room at 2:05. I packed and passed out by 2:30. My alarm went off at 3:30, I took a shower, got dressed, and hopped in a cab to Logan by 4:00. It cost me $220 for two hours in the hotel room. For that kind of hourly rate I could have retained a high end escort to accompany me to the wedding.

The rest of the day is a blur. I took off from Logan at 6:15, landing at JFK less than an hour later. After a layover, I hopped a plane to Toronto, landing around 11. Aside from a little a vacation to Puerto Rico, it was the first time I'd left the U.S. in 14 years, when I was 14 years old. On that trip I traveled as an unaccompanied minor on that trip, which meant the airline essentially held my hand each step of the way. Last year, I didn't need to bother with a passport or customs since Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory. So I had little to no clue what I was doing Sunday morning and I was doing it on no sleep to boot. But I must have faked it well; somehow I avoided an international incident.

From there, it was a walk through the airport where there were signs like "0.3% of all Canadian auto accidents involve a moose". Had I not been so out of it I would have snapped a picture. But I had to catch a cab, because the trade show I was attending actually started at 7:30 that morning.

I hustled to the hotel, got cleaned up, and managed to somehow work my company's booth for the remainder of the day. If business tanks this month, we may know why. Things finally wrapped up around 7:45. I scuttled across the street to the sports bar to grab a quick dinner.

As one of the 20 remaining NHL fans in the US, it was very cool to be in a Canadian sports bar watching the Stanley Cup Finals and have everyone there give a shit about it. Still, I could only manage to stay through the start of the second. I had to get some sleep.

The rest of the trip was pretty non-descript. Canada was like bizarro world: just like America, but not quite right. The tourism magazine in my room had an article on the Blue Jays. In it, they talked about the "centrefielder" Vernon Wells, how Alex Rios is a fan "favourite" amongst the ladies, and said the B.J. Ryan was once again healthy and deploying his "slingshot delivery". I don't which was most disorienting amongst the three.

Flipping through the stations at night, there was a lot of American TV on. I caught Conan's debut, not because I was particularly interested, but because I wanted to catch Pearl Jam's performance. There was also some British version of Law and Order on. Apparently the 15 different American versions of the show aren't enough. The one thing I wanted to watch, the Monday night Yankee-Indian game on ESPN, I couldn't because of a client dinner.

Even more torturous was being right around the corner from the Hockey Hall of Fame, but unable to go. The days are unbearably long at these shows, 7 AM to at least 5 PM, with networking and glad-handing to follow. And the Hall, being housed in a former bank, keeps banker's hours, closing at like 5:30 daily. Stupid Canadian metric time.

I had wanted to stay through Tuesday. My best friend from home has business in Toronto and he was flying in Tuesday afternoon. We made plans to go to the Jays game that night, to watch the fake umps, and more importantly, to watch the insanely hot waitresses in the seats behind the plate. Unfortunately for me, Delta wanted $800, or twice the cost of my round trip ticket, to make the change, so that wasn't happening. So fuck you Delta, no wonder your whole industry is barely staying alive. Oh and to add insult to injury, Doc Halladay spun a gem Tuesday, going the distance and whiffing 14.

In the end it was just as well. Staying only would have kept me in Canada for another day. I'm not trying to disparage our neighbors to the north, but I realize why my ancestors left there many generations ago. I like my country. So how was I welcomed back? The U.S. customs agent was a total dick to me. Then in the security line, I was chosen at random for the "physical search". Thankfully no cavities were involved. So I got to stand there in front of God and everyone while one guy wearing a turban wanded the metal detector over me and two guys speaking broken English patted me down and questioned me. These are U.S. agents mind you. At the risk of sounding like the Ugly American, I found a bit of irony in all of it.

After another detour through JFK I wound up back at Logan where some friends were nice enough to pick me up - and then let me use their wireless to do Tuesday's recap. Worn out from my whirlwind North American tour, I spent the night in Boston and finally returned home yesterday. I'm glad to be back.

In the end, it's not the most exciting trip recap. But at least we have some filler to hold us over until game time. See you shortly.

The Hughes Wang Dilemma

Over the past couple of years entire forests and billions of bytes have been laid to waste in debating two hot button topics in Yankeedom: the bullpen and how best to utilize the Yankees' young pitching prospects. Thanks to one Joba Chamberlain, the two have often intersected. Today I will willingly add to the tired debate. It's not that I want to keep beating this dead horse, but the Yankees make it impossible for this to go away.

Joba-gate has seemingly reached a turning point, as the combination of Joba's dominating performance Monday combined with the sublimely absurd and maniacal Francesa rant last week seemingly had made the whole debate implode upon itself.

But there is still the Phil Hughes/Chien-Ming Wang situation. On Wednesday, just one day after the team announced there were no plans to make any changes to the rotation, the Yankees made a change to the rotation. Sound familiar? It should. This is the same switch-a-roo the team pulled just two weeks ago when they announced on one day that CMW would make one more rehab start, only to activate him in a panic the very next day.

As a brief aside, the New York Yankees, Brian Cashman, and Joe Girardi are under no moral, ethical, or professional obligation to be forthright or truthful with the media, and by extension, the fanbase. However, the continued pattern of intentionally vague or misleading answers, or in many instances outright untruths, is growing tiresome. Rarely, if ever, is there any competitive advantage to disguising the truth in this way. Rather, it gives the impression that the organization is petty at best or clueless at worst. In either case, the Front Office's credibility is undermined.

So once again, as we said in yesterday's game preview, the move is as follows: Chien-Ming Wang will start this afternoon's game. CC Sabathia gets pushed back from today to tomorrow, and Phil Hughes gets bumped from the rotation for an as-of-yet undetermined role in the bullpen. The question is, what are we to make of all of this?

Jay and I discussed this briefly last night. Here's his take:

Hughes should go to Scranton and stay on a starter's regimen. The amount of innings he throws is more important than the the difference between facing AAA and MLB hitters.

In my opinion, Jay has a solid point there. The most important thing for Phil Hughes this year (and Joba Chamberlain for that matter) is to hit his innings cap. Given their respective injury histories, neither is as far along in innings as the organization would like for them to be. In order for both to make the maximum contribution over the next several years, the organization is going to need to rely upon these guys for 200 IP per season. And the only way to attain that is to ensure that they hit their innings caps this year, and the next and so on.

That said, I don't have a problem with this move right now. My biggest gripe is that it pushes CC back a day; why not keep your ace on schedule? Secondary to that, I continue to be perplexed by the way the Yankees continue to jerk Wang around (innuendo only partially intended). Pete Abe has touched on this repeatedly in the past two weeks, most notably here.

I don't think there's any intent on their part per se, but it is curious that they seemingly don't value him like a pitcher that won had won 46 games from the start of the 2006 season through his foot injury last June. First there was the knee-jerk reactionary activation two weeks ago. The came the news that the organization played a role in botching his rehab. Then yesterday, just a day after essentially stating that he would remain in the pen, came the news that Wang would actually be starting the next day's game. I can only hope that the team was more up front with Wang on Tuesday than they were with the media. Still, Wang had to return to the rotation at some point, and all else considered, I suppose today is as good a time as any to give it a go.

The part I have the least problem with is the Hughes portion of the move. I'm not in any way advocating making Hughes a reliever. There's even less reason to make Hughes a reliever long term than there is to make Joba a reliever. Cashman wouldn't surrender Hughes for Johan Santana, so anyone who thinks for one second that Hughes is the eighth inning answer is off their rocker. Hughes, like Joba, will be given every opportunity to become the front line starter that his potential suggests he can be. But for now, he'll get a chance to contribute out of the pen.

Despite his inconsistencies this year, Hughes has shown that he is an MLB ready pitcher. He is by no means a finished product, but he has spent time at AAA in each of the last three years and has little if anything left to prove there. Any further development can come at the Major League level; the only reason to return him to Scranton would be to ensure a regular workload to reach his innings cap.

While that is a point that should not be underestimated, there is plenty of reason to keep Phil Hughes with the big club for the time being. First and foremost, there is no guarantee, despite being impressive in his last two outings, that Wang will be ready for or capable of full time starting duty just yet. I shudder at the thought of what that would mean for Wang for the rest of 2009, but at the very least, Phil Hughes will still be around as a contingency rather than having to wait the requisite 10 days to return if he were to be optioned out.

Furthermore, as Alfredo Aceves has shown over the past month, there is value in having a relief pitcher that is capable of pitching multiple innings without merely being a mop-up man. For their own reasons, both statheads and old schoolers alike have bemoaned the widespread LaRussa-ization of the modern bullpen: one inning stints, defined roles, etc. With Aceves and Hughes now, the Yankees have the opportunity to deploy a uniquely constructed bullpen as envisioned by Joe at RAB earlier this week.

It's an interesting concept, and one I think could work. Before the 2008 season started, and before injuries and ineffectiveness undermined the pitching staff, I had advocated utilizing Joba Chamberlain in a similar role. Don't mistake me for a Joba to the bullpen guy, that's not the point at all. The issue last year, and again this year, is that the Yankees have two valuable pitchers who have rather low limits on the number of innings they can pitch. The team has the opportunity and the reason to employ an effective, if unconventional, pitching staff as it relates to Joba's and Hughes' innings limits over the remainder of the season.

In the end this will likely be a short term move. An injury or a double header will likely necessitate Hughes being in the rotation again at some point. The return of Brian Bruney and/or Damaso Marte, or the emergence of Mark Melancon will likely land Hughes back in the Scranton rotation at some point. But in the meantime, I'll be very interested to see how this all plays out.

April All Over Again

After a rain delay of 12 minutes the gametime temperature sat at a rather chilly 55 degrees. The air was opaque with mist and a huge amount of seats sat empty. The atmosphere was eerily reminiscent of the game that Schiff and I went to on April 21st. Andy Pettitte was the starter that night as well, but the main difference was that the lefty lasted seven innings, gave up two runs and the Yankees came away with the win. Not tonight.

Tonight was another frustrating outing with RISP (1-6) although it wasn't as bad as the series finale in Cleveland (3-16), which they won. Pettitte got the Yankees in the hole right off the bat, allowing three runs in the first inning. Nelson Cruz hit a ball right back toward Pettitte that would have likely become a double play if it hadn't deflected off it Andy's leg. A DP would have ended the inning, but Ian Kinsler scored on the play and the Rangers worked across two more runs on a groundout and a single. The inning would have continued on longer if it weren't for Melky Cabrera's outfield assist, throwing out Marlon Byrd at third base from right field.

Pettitte did not look sharp at any point in the game, but the first was the only inning where the Rangers would do significant damage. Allowing 13 baserunners in 5 innings typically leads to more than four runs, but Pettitte has always found ways to sneak out of tight situations. The six strikeouts and the double play he induced certainly helped his cause. 

It looked as though his back problem was flaring up as replays showed him wincing as he labored towards first base in the fourth inning. He apparently got through whatever it was and came back out for the fifth, finished the frame and ended up throwing 104 pitches.

The Yankees brought home a run on a single by A-Rod, the only one they would plate in the first six innings. Despite throwing only 59 of his 98 pitches for strikes, Feldman mostly stumped the Bombers. He gave up three walks and five hits, the last of which being a homer to Jorge Posada before getting pulled in the 7th. Of the 14 outs Feldman got on balls in play, 11 were grounders. Although he's not a name brand guy, Feldman's ERA of 3.79 and 5-0 record in seven starts (four in Arlington) is nothing to sneeze at. 

The Yanks shot themselves in the foot plenty of times, however. A-Rod rapped into a double play with one out and the bases loaded in the third inning. After Johnny Damon advanced to third on an errant pickoff throw by Feldman, A-Rod struck out in the sixth with a man on third and only one out. He struck out again in the eighth with Nick Swisher on first, bringing the total number of runners he left on base to five. The bottom third of the line up, (Melky, Matsui and Gardner) reached base only twice in ten plate appearances and Jeter went 0-4 in the leadoff spot. When a four person stretch in the order has a night that bad, it makes it tough to score runs without hitting long balls. 

On the bright side, Nick Swisher filled in admirably for Mark Teixeira, going 2-3 with a walk. Brett Tomko also pitched terrifically in relief of Pettitte, throwing three shutout innings and keeping the game well within reach. David Robertson added his own scoreless frame in the ninth. 

One difference between this and the games the Yankees were losing in April was the level of frustration. April started off bad, and never really got better. There was a sense of angst building, but the Yanks' success as of late makes routine losses like this one much easier to tolerate. The opposing pitcher had a good night and they didn't manage to score enough runs. It happens. Fortunately, the matinee on the schedule today means the loss won't linger too long, either.

The Youkstah Is Fackin' Heeeated

On the first play after Josh Beckett was removed from the Sox' 10-5 victory over the Tigers last night, rookie Josh Anderson tripped over Youk's ankle running to first. Youk hit the deck and then slammed his glove to the ground before leaving the game. 

Not to fear, Soxers, initial reports are that it's only a bruise.

Game 53: Badlands

Working in the fields, 'til you get your back burned
Working 'neath the wheel, 'til you get your facts learned
Baby I got my facts learned real good right now.
You better get it straight darling:
Poor man wanna be rich; Rich man wanna be king
And a king ain't satisfied 'til he rules everything.
I want to go out tonight, want to find out what I got.

I had been thinking about choosing "Born in the U.S.A." as tonight's song to commemorate my return to the States, but then I got to thinking that I didn't want to misinterpret the song's meaning as badly as Ronnie Reagan did during his 1984 re-election campaign. That, and I didn't want my preview tonight to be as self-indulgent as Jay's was last night.

So, with Springseen in mind, having had a Springsteen cover band play the wedding reception I attended Saturday, and with Andy Pettitte taking the mound for the first time since back pain forced him to a premature exit in his start last Friday, we turn to one of my favorite Springsteen songs: Badlands.

Now this is not yet another blog post bashing the new Stadium and its issues. In fact, it has nothing to do with the Stadium itself. Rather, it's a brief look at Andy Pettitte. Early in his career, a knock on Pettitte was that he was constantly battling arm problems and that he often had difficulty discerning the difference between pitching in pain and pitching injured.

Pettitte has long outgrown that reputation, twice (at least) with the aid of human growth hormone, but more due to better conditioning and the savvy that comes with being a 15 year veteran. He spent much of the second half last year pitching through shoulder pain knowing that the team was already decimated by injuries, thin on pitching, and in a (losing) fight for its post-season life. Pettitte pitched poorly during this stretch: after going 10-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in the first half, he struggled to the tune of 4-7, 5.35, 1.53 in the second half.

It was an unfortunate turn for Pettitte, finishing off his contract in such a poor fashion and raising questions again about his health and durability. After making $16M in both of the last two seasons, he held out for much of the off-season, hoping for a deal similar in value. Pettitte however overestimated both the market and his own worth at this advanced stage of his career, instead settling in late January for a $5.5M base salary with incentives for every ten innings pitched from 150 to 210 as well as roster bonuses for days on the active roster. The incentives can bring the contract value to a much more palatable $12M.

So, as Ben at RAB wisely pointed out Saturday, it comes as no surprise that Pettitte has been adamant since last Friday that he would be starting tonight. You can say that his back may be burned, but he's got his facts learned: he knows what his body can and can't do at this point in his career and he knows what's on the line financially. This rich man wants to be king, or at least richer, and tonight he'll go out to the mound and find out what he's got.

In other news, Chien-Ming Wang, who almost assuredly would have started tonight had Pettitte not been able to go, will now return to the starting rotation tomorrow. CC Sabathia will be pushed back to Friday, and it appears that Phil Hughes is now ticketed for the bullpen. Rest assured we'll be talking about this more over the next day or so.

Opposing Pettitte tonight will be Scott Bizarro Kramer. I have some misplaced hatred towards Bizarro Kramer. He baffled them in this game last year, spoiling Brett Gardner's Major League debut. I then proceeded to get tagged with a $397 speeding ticket driving home from the game. I blame Feldman. Go get him fellas.