The Fallacy Of A Hot September

In the beginning of every season, we are forced to look at extremely small sample sizes in order to evaluate performance, which grow larger as the year progresses. It takes a while, but over the summer months, trends become realities and we begin to see who the best players and teams are. But before those positions can be solidified, the schedule winds down and heads into the postseason. Then, broadcasters, analysts and fans all try to identify who the hottest teams are heading into October and the big picture is viewed in terms of increasingly small sample sizes once again.

But does being hot heading into the playoffs really forebode success once you get there? The 2007 Rockies were the most recent poster child of this theory, skyrocketing from 6.5 games back and only 5 games over .500 as late as September 16th and finally sneaking into the postseason via a play-in game against the Padres. From there they swept their way to the World Series but were ultimately dismantled by the Red Sox.

Of course, the '07 Rockies are just one end of the spectrum. On the other hand, you have the 2000 Yankees who turned into a train wreck down the stretch, going 2-12 over their final 14 games, ending the season on a 7 game losing streak and nearly blowing the division. That Yankee team of course went on to beat the Indians, Mariners and Mets and unlike the above mentioned Rockies, actually won the World Series.

Today at The Faster Times, Lisa Swan from Subway Squawkers looked at how every playoff team since the year 2000 performed in September and how it correlated to their success in the postseason. Surprise, surprise... there is essentially no connection at all. Click through for the details.

In a season bereft of any really close pennant races, but the same amount of articles to be published, scribes will be churning out columns trying to identify who is primed for October based on the way they are playing now. Someone is probably writing one about the Yankees right now. Most columnists make a living trying to find story lines. Unfortunately for them, if you want to foretell the future in baseball, you be better off breaking out the crystal ball.

Impact Of A Potential Hairston Injury

Early yesterday afternoon the Yankees wrapped up their first series victory in Anaheim since May 2004. The lower portions of the bullpen caste system held a one run lead for two and a third innings. Ian Kennedy returned to a Major League mound for the first time in over a year and just months removd from surgery to repair an aneurysm. A playoff spot is clinched and the magic number for the division and homefield is down to five. But there is one potential drawback from yesterday's victory.

One pitch into his seventh inning plate appearance, Jerry Hairston Jr had to leave the game after feeling a pop in his wrist while taking a practice swing. After the game, Peter Abraham reported that Hairston initially injured the wrist earlier this season while he was still with Cincinnati and both an MRI and a cortisone shot nearly two weeks ago. He is scheduled for another MRI today to assess the extent of the damage.

No one would consider Hairston a key part of the Yankees roster, but he certainly serves a valauble role. While his offensive production has fallen off a bit since his arrival, he's getting on base at a good clip (.346 with the Yanks) and he's suffering from a very low BABIP (.233). But Hairston's greatest value comes in his versatility. A second baseman originally, since coming over at the deadline Hairston has appeared 15 times at third, 8 at short, 9 at both of the corner outfield positions, and twice in center.

It's too early to be jumping to conclusions at this point, but if Hairston's injury is enough to shelve him for October, it would likely take the Yankees two roster spots to replace his versatility. Ramiro Pena was a good candidate to make the post-season roster anyway, and he can easily replace, if not exceeed, what Hairston can offer on infield defense. But while Pena did get seven games of experience in centerfield with Scranton this year, he's yet to play the outfield at the Major League level.

The issue is that the Yankees currently don't have any other real outfield options to replace Hairston. This shouldn't be too big of an issue since Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner will be the fourth outfielder anyway. But if Gardner somehow gets burnt as pinch runner, the Yankees are now looking at a less palatable option as a late inning defensive replacement for Johnny Damon. Eric Hinske is present strictly for his bat. So an injury to Hairston could increase the chances of Freddy Guzman making the post-season roster.

If Hairston is out for an extended period, I'd expect the Yankees to use the season's final week to assess their options. This could mean Pena seeing some time in the outfield or Guzman getting a few starts. Depending upon the extent of the injury and what direction the Yankees decide to go in the aftermath, there's even a chance that we could see Austin Jackson before the season is over, and potentially in the post-season as well.

In commenting on Joba Chamberlain early this week, Brian Cashman seemed to indicate that the Yankees would only carry ten pitchers for the ALDS. If that's the case, they'll have a six man bench at their disposal. Jose Molina, Gardbrera, Hinske, and Pena are virtual locks for those spots right now. How the remaining two openings are filled will hinge upon what happens in an MRI tube at some point today.

Riding High But Feeling For Mo

Good morning, Fackers. They might have had to do it the hard way, but the Yankees pulled off a road series victory against their nemesis, the Angels, in the one place that, for whatever reason, they really struggle to win games. These three games were framed as a litmus test for the team and while you can challenge the validity of that premise, but the results were conclusive; the Yanks passed.

Somewhat apropos to each of the cities, leaving Seattle, it was all doom and gloom. Now, departing from Los Angeles, things are looking much brighter.

The way that the last two games unfolded, tense battles of the bullpen with late lead changes, had those who stayed awake or left work early to watch them hanging on every pitch. A-Rod stepped up, going 3 for 8 in the series with two home runs, 4 RBIs and a decisive sacrifice fly to win the second contest. Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin and A.J. Burnett all put forward representative performances although each was viewed as a potential liability coming into the series.

Mariano Rivera also bounced back from his blown save in Seattle by saving the final two games of the series, protecting a one run lead in both of them. They weren't cheapies. He allowed one baserunner to start each outing, but neither advanced past first.

After the home run to Ichiro, Tyler Kepner published this article about Rivera intertwining with Phil Hughes' role as a set up man, nailing the essence of the man thusly:

Such mastery of the mental and physical cloaks Rivera in a kind of mysticism. He is a team captain without the title, a touchstone for teammates. To Hughes, he is an inspiration, even without many words.

Rivera's job description provides enough mental challenges, but Mo has probably had even more on his mind as of late (hat tip to the indispensable Baseball Think Factory).

Puerto Caimito, the small fishing village on the southern coast of Panama where he grew up and still keeps a home, has been struck by some pretty serious flooding and storm surges causing the canals of the city to fail. Three people are dead, dozens more injured and hundreds more unable to return to their homes. (Articles in Spanish)

We've talked a little bit about Latin American baseball lately, but didn't get into what it must be like for these guys to leave much of their families behind even though they have probably surpassed their wildest dreams in terms of wealth and success. An event like this has to make that infinitely harder.

It's worth noting that Rivera had to return home to his house in the same town in between the 2004 ALDS and ALCS because his wife's cousin and his son were electrocuted while cleaning his pool. Either by purposeful omission out of respect or forgetfulness, this is never cited as a reason for Mo's struggles in that series, although the travel must have taken something out of him and it must have weighed heavily on his mind.

The fact that we haven't heard about the flooding from the beat writers via Rivera or the Yankees almost certainly means that his family was not affected. Hopefully that is the case and for the people of Puerto Caimito in general and Mariano and his family in particular, the worst of it is over.

Escape From L.A.

Don LaFontaine (R.I.P.): After dropping the first game against Joe Saunders and the Los Angeles Angels of Whereverthefuck, the New York Yankees had their work cut out for them if they wanted to escape the City of Angels with a series win. It took every last ounce of their strength they could muster, and a little bit of good fortune, too...

Nine inning getaway games with a total of 5 runs scored don't usually last 3 hours and 37 mins. Then again, the two pitchers on the mound in L.A. today both tend to record strikeouts by the bucketful and toss more than their fair share of pitches. There was also a lot of pride at stake in this one, which also contributed to the Yanks vs. Red Sos type of pace. Joe Girardi did his part to slow the pace down by using 6 pitchers as well.

Both Scott Kazmir and A.J. Burnett brought the best stuff in the early going. Kazmir worked his way through three scoreless innings, dancing around a walk to Jerry Hairston, Jr. (who is scheduled for an MRI) in the first and erasing a single by Brett Gardner by getting Derek Jeter to ground into a double play in the third.

The Yanks finally got to Kazmir in the 4th, starting with a one out double by Mark Teixeira. Hideki Matsui worked a walk, bringing Shelley Duncan to the plate. The Forearm Basher turned out a fastball, lining it right just over Chone Figgins' head. It hit his glove, but glanced off into right field, trickling towards Juan Rivera. Since Teixeira thought the ball was going to be caught by Figgins, he had taken a step back towards second and didn't get a great jump on his way home. Rivera's throw was on the money and Teix slid feet first and Mike Napoli applied the tag. A better jump or a head first slide might have been enough to score, but the Yanks blew a good chance to pick up a run.

They still had runners on 2nd and 3rd for Robinson Cano, however. Robby's struggles with RISP have been well documented, but he laced a single to right, scoring both Matsui and Duncan to put the Yanks ahead 2-0. Melky Cabrera followed that with a double to the gap in left center driving in Cano for the 3rd run of the frame, all scoring with 2 outs. That hit snapped a 1-20 slide for Melky, dating back to their last game against the Angels 9 days ago. In the process, the Bombers drove Kazmir's pitch count up to 69. By the end of the fifth inning it was already at 92.

Burnett's dominance lasted a bit longer. Although he gave up at least one baserunner in each of the first four innings (3 hits and 2 walks), Burnett also struck out 8 during that span, including striking out the side in the 2nd and 4th.

In the fifth, the Angels got one across against Burnett. Napoli and Figgins began the frame with a single and a double, putting runners on second and third with no one out. Burnett struck out Eric Aybar for the second time in the game, temporarily stalling the assault. Bobby Abreu ripped a grounder but Cano snagged it and limited the damage to one run before Burnett for Torii Hunter to fly out to end the inning.

Burnett tallied his 10th and 11th strikeouts in the 6th but again allowed a single and a double, this time bringing the game to 3-2. After A.J. walked Mike Napoli, and with Chone Figgins who had recorded a hit in each of his three previous at bats on deck, Joe Girardi pulled him in favor of Damaso Marte. Burnett was visibly perturbed but Marte got Figgins to fly out to right, ending the inning and preserving Burnett's shot at picking up the win.

Marte came back out for the 7th, and started by giving up a single to Eric Aybar. He then got Bobby Abreu to ground into a 4-6-3 double play. With no one one base, Girardi called on Jonathan Albaladejo to face Torii Hunter. His mixing and matching finally backfired, as Hunter ripped a double to right. Girardi again tinkered by brining Phil Coke in to face Kendry Morales. Coke uncorked a wild pitch that allowed Hunter to move up to third but ultimately struck out Morales to escape trouble.

The parade of pitchers continued into the 8th inning, but the next to take the hill was a bit of a surprise. Ian Kennedy made his first appearance of the year after recovering from an aneurysm in his shoulder and pitching briefly in the playoffs for Scranton. IPK didn't look too hot. Ramiro Pena made a spectacular diving grab which saved an extra base hit while Kennedy also hit and walked a batter. But, he recovered with a strikeout and a fly out, then turned the ball over to Mariano Rivera.

Mo give up a flare to Abreu to begin the bottom of the 9th, which found some green area in short, left and center. But Mo being Mo, he struck out Hunter and Morales before getting Juan Rivera to line out to center. Case closed. Yanks won 3-2 and took the first series in Anaheim since the one that ended on May 20th, 2004. The magic number is down to 5 for now, as the Sox vs. Royals game will begin shortly.

The Yanks won two close games and got three pretty solid pitching performances out of their starters. As we mentioned coming into the series, there was going to be the temptation to make too much out of these three games one way or another. The last two games were good wins against a good team, on the road, in a relatively big spot. Taking two out of three against the A's while the Sox dropped two to the Royals was the best case scenario in the hopes for HFA. The Yanks get another day off tomorrow and can enjoy it after heading into it on a high note.

Game 153: Growin' Up

It's getaway day at the Big A, and I can't imagine the Yankees are too sad to leave it behind for the time being. With a playoff berth clinched and a win in Anaheim finally to their credit, Joe Girardi is giving some of the regulars an extra day off heading into tomorrow's off day. Jerry Hairson Jr subs for Alex Rodriguez at third. Jose Molina catches his second game of the series and will try to control the Angels' running game. Johnny Damon gets a day off, with Melky Cabrera in LF and Brett Gardner in CF. And with a lefty on the mound, Shelley Duncan gets his first start of the year as Nick Swisher grabs some pine. Wisely, Hideki Matsui, who has been destroying left handed pitching this year, remains in the weakened line up as the DH.

Old friend Scott Kazmir takes the hill for the Halos today. He's 2-0 in two starts against the Yanks this year, with a 2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 10:1 K:BB in 13.2 innings of work. Those two outings aside, Kazmir was having a downright bad season for the Rays. He has battled injuries throughout his career, including missing a month this season, prompting some to question the wisdom of the Angels making a deal for him on August 29th.

It's been a great deal so far. Though he's just 1-1 in four starts since the trade, each outing has been a quality start. He's pitched to a 1.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and held opponents to a .540 OPS. The sample size is small, and he's benefited from a very pitcher friendly .247 BABIP, but for the time being at least, it would seem that the 25 year old Kazmir is back on track.

Looking to stay back on track for the Yankees is A.J. Burnett. Since the start of August, he's had some very bad starts. However, last Friday in Seattle, Burnett allowed just one run in seven innings of work, sparking hope that he's corrected whatever issues were causing his recent poor performances.

Prior to his start last Friday, Burnett had this to say: “I’m throwing the ball where I want to for the most part. You eliminate a couple of mistakes and everything’s great.” At the time, it was a bit of a tough statement to hear. Chris H at The Yankee Universe took him to task over it, and I included it in a link around here with a snide comment of my own attached to it. One start certainly doesn't prove Burnett prophetic, but if he is in fact back on top of his game, it wouldn't be the first time he's proven somewhat clairvoyant.

The low point of Burnett's season came in Boston on June 9th, when he lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing 10 baserunners and 5 runs (3 ER). After the game, Burnett copped to his struggles to that point in the season, saying his season to date was:

“Terrible. Glimpses of greatness but I’m not very consistent right now. I’m not a negative guy, so I’m not going to beat myself up over it. But when I do get on that run, it’s going to be impressive. I promise you that.”

It was a boastful, bold, and potentially risky statement at that point, but he backed it up, going on a tear that saw him go 7-1 with a 1.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his next eight starts. Hopefully his statements last week and his start last Friday are indicative of another stretch of him putting his money where his mouth is.

Early in his career, Burnett had a reputation as a bit of a malcontent, culminating with the Florida Marlins excusing him from the team in late September 2005, following remarks he made that were critical of the organization. 28 years old at the time, it ended Burnett's Marlins career and prompted him to issue a fairly mature apology. That off-season, he signed with Toronto, where he had three good seasons. But more importantly, Burnett became a teammate of Roy Halladay, who Burnett credits with helping him mature as a pitcher and a professional.

By all accounts, Burnett has been an outstanding teammate and a positive influence in the clubhouse. Aside from his role as resident pastry chef for the littany of Yankee walk-offs this year, he's credited with being a big part of the team building that's happened over the course of the season, dating back to spring training. Burnett's chief protege has been Joba Chamberlain, who is seemingly always at the side of Burnett and/or CC Sabathia in the dugout. While the trio is likely talking pitching most of the time, young Joba should take some notes on poise and public relations from the two consumate professionals.

Chamberlain has spent much of the season making comments not all together different than what we heard from Burnett in June and again last week. While there may be some sort of double standard at play, there are two key differences here. First, Burnett has a track record that Joba has yet to develop. Second, and more importantly, Burnett backed up his comments with an extended stretch of dominance. Chamberlain had a three start stretch in late July where he was excellent and has been decidedly and frustratingly inconsistent otherwise. Yet start after start we get the same canned comments alternated with excuses: he had too much rest, there was a hitch in his delivery, etc.

I've not given up on Joba Chamberlain. 23 year old pitchers struggle. On top of that, he's being put through a very public experiment right before our eyes as it relates to his innings limit. It's been a unique and difficult situation to handle. The extra rest and truncated starts probably haven't helped him at all. The hasty transition to the rotation last year may or may not have contributed to the shoulder injury that may or may not still be impacting Joba this year. Some of Joba's off the field issues may or may not be creeping between the lines with him. His meteoric rise to the Majors and instant celebrity may have stunted his development as both a pitcher and a professional.

But the bottom line, as Brian Cashman laid out yesterday, is that Joba has to produce. And when he continues to fail to produce while trotting out the same wooden answers time and again, it becomes very frustrating to listen to as a fan.

Anyway, this preview has gone well off the rails. I'll finish by saying this. I can accept the inconsistencies better if there were more accountability. At some point in his career A.J. Burnett decided to grow up. Joba Chamberlain now has more than two years of Major League service time on his resume. He turns 24 today. He'd be wise to take the advice of fellow birthday boy Bruce Springsteen and to follow the example of fellow pitcher A.J. Burnett, and get to growing up soon.



I stood stone-like at midnight suspended in my masquerade,
I combed my hair till it was just right and commanded the night brigade,
I was open to pain and crossed by the rain and I walked on a crooked crutch,
I strolled all alone through a fallout zone and came out with my soul untouched,
I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd but when they said "Sit down" I stood up.
Ooh-ooh growin' up.

I Don't Need No Doctor

Via Pete Abe, we got the news that David Robertson threw a bullpen session prior to last night's game and all went well. DRob hopes he needs just one more bullpen session before he gets back to into game action. That's great news for the Yankees, as Robertson was becoming a key cog in the bullpen prior to his elbow issue shutting him down following his September 5th appearance.

As you may recall, Robertson went to visit Dr. James Andrews and was told he didn't need any medical treatment, just rest and rehab. That of course is good news. The bad news is that the last time a highly effective Yankee righty reliever went to see Dr. Andrews and needed rest and rehab, he turned into an absolute turd upon his return.

Ray Charles would have turned 79 today. In honor of his birthday and the good news on David Robertson, I wanted to embed a video of Charles' "I Don't Need No Doctor", but I can't seem to find any. So here's a link to a sweet version from Humble Pie. This one is more true to the Charles version, and features John Scofield (who I like) and John Mayer (who I loathe). But we have to have a video from the birthday boy. So since I've alluded to Brian Bruney in this post, here's a Charles tune that summarizes the feelings many Yankee fans have towards Bruney at present.

Giant Steps

Ok, maybe it wasn't a giant step. It was probably more of a baby step. Nevertheless, the Yankees have their first victory of 2009 at The Big A, and just their fifth there since the start of the 2006 season. They have a chance to take the rubber game of the series later this afternoon.

It certainly could have gone smoother last night. Eight Yankee runners were left on base and the Yanks went just 1 for 10 with RISP. There was some sloppy defense. Chad Gaudin flat ran out of gas with two outs in the fourth, Alfredo Aceves was a bit rusty thanks to inactivity, and Phil Hughes had a rare rough outing. Even the mighty Mo, coming off a blown save in his last outing, was having a rough go of it until the big strike him out, throw him out double play. And the Yankees benefited from a missed call on Brett Gardner's critical stolen base in the top of the ninth.

But the bottom line is the Yankees won, and won after the pesky Angels had clawed their way backed into the game. They officially clinched a post-season berth before the game was even over, and the victory reduced the magic number for both the AL East and homefield advantage to six with a week plus to go. Maybe it wasn't just a baby step after all.

John Coltrane would have turned 82 today. Giant Steps was one of his greatest works and was recorded during perhaps the most creative stage of his career. While he was recording the album Coltrane was still working with the other giant of post-bebop jazz, Miles Davis, and had just finished recording Davis' ingenious Kind of Blue. The work the two artists did in that time frame would influence musicians for years to come, jazz or otherwise. Unfortunately live recordings of Giant Steps' title track are hard to come by. But in the interests of shining the spotlight on Coltrane today, here's the John Coltrane Quartet performing "Naima", another track from Giant Steps that became a jazz standard.

My Back Pages

We say this every morning in the form of the typical greeting, but today truly is a good morning, Fackers. The Yankees clinched their first playoff berth under Joe Girardi. Sure it had been a virtual inevitability for a good month or so, but it feels a lot different now that it's locked up. It didn't hurt that they won a back and forth game against a potential postseason opponent to do their part of it, either.

The Yankees did it the right way, and didn't go for the over-the-top champagne celebration, or really any celebration at all, actually. Joe Girardi gathered the team and simply said "Congratulations, and let's keep it going". He acted like he had been there before, even though he hadn't as a manager. You've gotta respect that.

Make no mistake, the reason that this is even remotely satisfying as fans is because of last year. Had the Yankees just clinched their 15 consecutive postseason berth, no one would have batted an eyelash. In '08, I remember watching the odds of the Yankees qualifying the playoffs dwindle down to 10 and then 5 percent and trying to talk myself into believing that a miraculous late surge, coupled with a Rays' collapse was in store. Needless to say, it was not.

A lot of the post season magic and luster was lost in 2004, but it wasn't until last year that the Yanks truly hit rock bottom. Simply playing out the string last September and watching the Old Stadium close down was humbling in ways that I didn't expect.

I think before that, most Yankee fans, especially my age, thought of a playoff bid as something of a birthright. The last time they actually missed the playoffs before '08 was 1993 (they were the best team in the AL in 1994 before the strike hit). I was 9 years old at that point and obviously wasn't yet a Saturday Package holder and a daily reader of Yankee blogs.

This year, it seems like a new experience. The twenty four months that have passed since the Yanks lost the Bug Game and were unceremoniously bounced three nights later by the Indians is an eternity in baseball years. The Yanks might not want to stop to enjoy this moment, but we will, at least momentarily. There are bigger and better things in store for this team, but the significance of this moment is not lost around these parts.

Yanks Win Thriller, Clinch Playoff Spot

Like they did on Monday night, the Yankees began the night by stranding multiple runners on base. This time they had loaded the bags, but Jorge Posada flew out to deep left to end the threat. As noted on the broadcast, the Yankees have left at least two runners on base in the first inning 27 times this season, which is the most in the Majors. Robinson Cano doubled to lead off the second, but the Yanks stranded him too.

Ervin Santana recorded four strikeouts (all swinging) in those first two innings, and in those at bats, 12 of the 18 pitches he threw were sliders. The breaking ball was a little wild though, as catcher Jeff Mathis repeatedly had to block balls in the dirt, including the one Jeter struck out on.

Santana got away from the slider in the third inning, giving up a single on a change up to Mark Teixeira and then a prodigious blast into the face rocks in straightaway center to A-Rod on a 3-0 fastball he left right in the middle of the plate. Hideki Matsui then reached on a catcher's interference, advanced to second on a wild pitch and watched from there as Jorge Posada was the first Yankee to finally conquer Santana's slider, lofting it sky-high, just over the tall wall in right field.

After striking out two times in his first two at bats Derek Jeter flared his 200th hit of the season into shallow right field to lead of the 4th inning. In the top of the 5th, Hideki Matsui got in on the tater party as well, launching a shot into the bleachers in right-center.

Meanwhile, Chad Gaudin worked his way through four scoreless innings against the Angels. A five run margin seemed comfortable at the time, but it started slipping away. In the bottom of the fifth, Chone Figgins jacked a solo homer to right. Then Vlad Guerrero singled in Macier Izturis with two outs.

An inning later, after Alfredo Aceves had replaced Gaudin and stopped the bleeding, the wound was re-opened. Five men reached base in the 6th via four singles and a bases loaded walk. Two men scored, but it could have been much worse were it not for A-Rod's diving stab and throw to get Vlad Guerrero for the third out.

Joe Girardi let Aceves face Torii Hunter in the 7th inning, brought in lefty Damaso Marte to get the switch hitting Kendry Morales around to his weaker side. When Marte served up a double, Joe promptly went back to the well for Phil Hughes, who induced two grounders and got out of the inning.

Hughes did not escape the 8th similarly unscathed, although by little fault of his own. Cano failed to field a hot shot from Howie Kendrick, and the play was scored an error. Then, Kendrick took off for second, Jorge Posada's throw escaped into centerfield and Kendrick was a third with no one out. Hughes got Figgins to pop out, but Izturis singled home the tying run in the next at bat. Bobby Abreu worked a work, but Hughes buckled down and struck out the heart of the Angels order, Hunter and Guerrero to keep the game tied.

Things were looking pretty grim for the Yanks, but the bats got off on the right foot in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner singled and stole second (although replays indicated he was out), Derek Jeter walked and all of a sudden they were back in business. Johnny Damon moved the runners over with a successful sac bunt and Darren Oliver walked Mark Teixeria, bringing A-Rod to the plate.

At this point, it was tough to feel too confident. A double play or a strikeout would have felt like a severe blow to the Yanks' chances, but A-Rod came through, ripping a line drive to centerfield that Brett Gardner just barely scored on. Had it been another runner on third, there's a good chance they would have been out.

The game was turned over to Mariano Rivera for the first time since his blown save in Seattle. Kendry Morales led off the inning with a walk and was replaced by pinch runner Reggie Willits. Juan Rivera came to the plate, and in between three pick off attempts, the intensity was built throughout the at bat. Maraino scattered cutters around but not in the strike zone and Juan fouled a couple of the closer ones off. It ended with a beautiful strike 'em, throw 'em out double play, changing the momentum entirely. Next up, Eric Aybar grounded out to end the game and the Yanks finally came away with one in the Big A.

They also clinched their playoff berth, although technically that had already happened when the Rangers lost to the A's earlier in the night. The Red Sox were shutdown by Zack Greinke, who allowed two hits and walked three over six scoreless innings at Fenway, lowering his ERA to an incredible 2.08. The magic number is now at 6, opening the possibility of clinching against the Red Sox this weekend.

For the moment, we can put aside the questions and soak this one up. Feels pretty good, doesn't it?

Game 152: Born On The Bayou

Ervin Santana takes the mound for the Angels tonight. This has been a bit of a lost season for Santana. He didn't make his 2009 debut until May 14th due to injury, and went back on the DL from June 11th until July 3rd. For the year, he's 7-8 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In seven career starts against the Yanks, Santana is 5-2 but with a whopping 5.09 ERA.

We haven't paid a ton of attention to Chad Gaudin since he was acquired from San Diego on August 6th. Gaudin almost immediately became lost in the shuffling of the Yankee pitching staff. He became the swingman, spot starting when necessary and serving as long relief for Sergio Mitre and Joba Chamberlain. In his first three weeks as a Yankee he pitched just 9.1 innings. He's now made eight apperances with the Yankees and has appeared on six, five, and seven days rest; he'll go on five again tonight.

Yet Chad Gaudin is both actively and passively becoming a bigger part of the Yankees' post-season picture. Once considered a bubble candidate for the post-season roster, Gaudin is now a virtual lock for October. That isn't only because of his performance, which has been solid if unspectacular, but because his versatility makes him valuable. This past week, he became the official fifth starter, with Mitre being banished to relief work exclusively. Come October, should Andy Pettitte's shoulder falter or should A.J. Burnett have another bout of ineffectiveness, Chad Gaudin (if not Alfredo Aceves) may be the first name called from the pen. If Joba Chamberlain continues to struggle, Gaudin may become the more palatable choice for a Game Four start. If David Robertson's elbow troubles leave him ineffective or unable to pitch in the post-season, Gaudin and his 8.6 K/9 may be deployed in some critical middle relief situations.

Tonight will be Gaudin's fifth start for the Yankees. He's yet to pick up a decision as a starter, largely due to his inability to go deep into games - which can be attributed to both ineffectiveness and inactivity. Yet the Yankees have managed to win all four of his starts, and are 6-2 in his eight appearances with the club. He had his best outing as a Yankee two starts ago against the Rays, and came up one out short of a second consecutive quality start when he faced the Blue Jays last Wednesday.

He's shown progress, reducing his walks in recent appearances, which have been his Achilles heel this year. He has had better results with the Yankees despite leaving the friendly confines of Petco Park and the National League, but the cause for concern is that Gaudin's peripherals were much better with the Padres. With the Yankees, his walk rate has increased slightly, his K rate has decreased somewhat, and his HR/9 has more than tripled. If that catches up with him at some point he'll lose a lot of his current luster.

All of that is to say that we still don't really know Chad Gaudin. But there is a decent chance we'll get to know him better before 2009 is over. Gaudin was the piece that Brian Cashman chose to acquire when he passed on bigger name pitchers at the deadline. In many ways it was astute move; Gaudin has the potential to fill needs in both the bullpen and at the back of the rotation. Now it's time for the Bayou-born and bred Gaudin, who unfortunately does not talk like this, to make that move pay dividends.

Here's The Dude's favorite band....



Wish I was back on the bayou
Rolling with some Cajun queen
Wishing I were a fast freight train
Just a chugging on down to New Orleans

"The Yankees Are Doomed"

Like we were anticipating, there has been an bloom of ignorant Yankees articles and blog posts of late foreshadowing their postseason demise, and since I don't have anything better to write about, here we go again.

This one comes from a writer who thinks he is blogging because he posts the first thought that comes to his mind on a website. I guess no one ever told Jeff Pearlman that even though it's a "blog" you probably should still be concerned with "reality" and attempt to do some "research" instead of spouting off pitching clichés that Walter Johnson would probably think were outdated and citing irrelevant facts that tenuously fit your argument.

(Headline:) The Yankees are doomed

OK, maybe doomed is too strong.

Then you probably should have changed the headline, huh? You didn't write this on a typewriter, did you?

But, once again, I don’t think Brian Cashman has built a team made for the playoffs. Mainly, the problem is pitching. Starting pitching.

You're right. What the fuck was Brian Cashman thinking when he acquired the two best starting pitchers on the market this offseason and brought back a solid veteran lefty in Andy Pettitte? What a collection of terrible moves that was!

As the Atlanta Braves showed us throughout the 1990s, having a load of B+ starting pitchers is fantastic for 90-plus regular season wins … but doesn’t really work so well in the post-season. Generally speaking, the teams in the best shape have two ass-kicking starters with rubber arms and angry demeanors (think Johnson-Schilling, ‘01).

That's one team. Do you have any other examples? I have one, the 2002 Diamondbacks. Same two guys... how did that work out for them? Oh yeah, they got swept in the NLDS.

In '98, the Yanks best two starters were Cone and Pettitte, not exactly "angry". In '99 & '00, The Yanks were exactly the Braves teams Jeff is talking about, with a bunch of B+ starters and no real standout "ass-kickers". In fact, in 2000, only Clemens had an ERA under 4.00 and their 4th starter was Denny Neagle in October.

How about 2002? The Angels started Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz and John Lackey. Any ass-kickers in there? And 2003? The Marlins had Josh Beckett and Brad Penny, only one of those guys is perceived as "angry" and neither is "rubber-armed".

Schilling and Pedro in '04? Okay, sure. That's two in the last 10 years.

In 2005, the Astros were the ones with Clemens and Oswalt, but they get smashed by the White Sox. Chris Carpenter and Jeff Weaver were the best pitchers for the Cardinals in the '06 WS. Beckett was around again in '07 but by all accounts, Jon Lester pretty mild mannered. Brett Myers beats his wife, but Cole Hamels posed with his lady in these ads with kids that he doesn't even have. He's no ass-kicker.

Or he could have just said, "Generally speaking, the more good pitchers a team has, the better shape they are in".

Okay, so I just spent way too long parsing one offhanded remark, but there's more dumbassery, I promise.

CC Sabathia: Great starter. Elite starter. Worth the big bucks thus far—but in five postseason games with Cleveland and Milwaukee, the man has a 7.92 ERA over five starts. Please, read that again—

Five starts?

...seven point nine two.

Oh. The part that can be dismissed as an extremely small sample size.

Can he be masterful? Of course. Will he be? Seems sort of unlikely.

That's some strong language, Jeff. They're DOOMED!

A.J. Burnett: I’d argue (as would many) that, come playoff time, Burnett has the chance to be New York’s stud. He still throws extremely hard, still possesses lightning stuff—plus, he’s already won a World Series with the 2003 Marlins.

Yes, he "won" a World Series with the Marlins in 2003, the year in which he made a grand total of four starts before getting Tommy John surgery and missing the rest of the year, including the postseason. Extremely relevant... the guy knows how to win!

Joba Chamberlain: [...] I mean, seriously, what they’ve done to this kid is, in a baseball sense, criminal. If I’m a Yankees fan, and it’s Game 7, do I want Jona[sic] or Phil Hughes starting?

Me, I take Hughes.

You'd take Hughes, the guy who has been in the bullpen since June and before that had a 5.45 ERA as a starter? So you'd somehow stretch him out in the major leagues over the last 11 games from a one or two inning pitcher and have him make a start in the postseason? If you were a Yankee fan, or knew anything about the team, you'd be choosing Chad Gaudin over Joba because he's the only other viable option.

Run For Cover, This Is Not 11 Years Ago!!1!!!1!

You may recall the name Allen Barra from FJM Day over at Deadspin last week. He was the one saying that Derek Jeter should win the MVP because Paul Newman won an Oscar for The Color Of Money, for his "inspiration and professionalism", and because Jeter had been snubbed in the past.

Well yesterday, Mr. Barra busted out some similarly stupid logic for the Village Voice in regards to the Yankees' playoff chances:

Be afraid, Yankee fans -- be very afraid.

A couple of weeks ago everything seemed all sewn up -- the Yankees had vanquished the Red Sox, and all everyone wanted to know was if this year's editions was as good as the 1998 team. A couple of more games like yesterday's, and they're going to be wondering if this team is as good as the 2008 Yankees.

/shakes in shoes

I should be afraid because this year's team isn't one of the greatest teams ever? This actually makes perfect sense because if you were stupid and shortsighted enough to equate the '09 Yankees to the '98 version "a couple of weeks ago", then you are probably dumb enough to compare them to last year's team after they've lost 6 of 10 games.

A year ago [Joba] looked like the greatest young phenom in baseball; now he's a weight dragging down the rest of the pitching staff.

That's right folks, Joba is pitching so poorly that he hurt Andy Pettitte's shoulder. He's the reason A.J. Burnett has only won 1 of his last 10 starts and I'll be damned if he didn't make Mo blow that save in Seattle. Just wait 'til he starts getting into CC Sabathia's head. Then we'll really be fucked.

Sunday's outing against the punchless Seattle mariners -- dead last in the American League in both batting average and runs scored -- was an out and out disgrace that would have earned any other pitcher a demotion to Double-A.

Could the last declaration be any more factually incorrect? He's made 29 starts for the Yankees this year. Please give me even one example of the last time a pitcher was demoted, not to AAA but to AA, because of one outing late in the season, let alone "any other pitcher". Allen Barra makes George Steinbrenner in his heyday look calm and measured by comparison.

Is there a team in baseball with a worse record of developing young pitchers than the Yankees?

I'm not sure, but instead of trying to figure it out, you should probably just pose it as a rhetorical question, imply that it's true and move on.

Was there any more illogical way to bring Joba along than to put him in games where he was expected to only go three or four innings? If whoever is calling the shots in the front office had conferred with Joe Girardi and pitching coach Dave "No Man Is An" Eiland and at least agreed to put Job aback[sic] in the bullpen to be worked in front of Phil Hughes, they might at least have something to show for all the absurd coddling and pampering of Joba.

Is there a more illogical way to handle a pitcher than limiting him to pitching three or four innings a game? They should have only allowed him to pitch one or two innings a game! How absurd that they would want to protect a young pitchers arm by not transitioning him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, which ended with him being injured last year! IDIOTS! (And minus 10 for the non-sequitur Bermanism.)

What's the big difference between the 1998 and 2009 Yankees? Try this: In 1998, the Yanks weren't going into the last nine[sic] games of the season wondering if they were the best team in the league.

First of all, this was written yesterday, so the Yankees were actually heading into their last 12 games of the season. Mr. Barra apparently does not have access to the internet where he could look up the Yanks' schedule.

And the "big difference" is that after 150 games in 1998, the Yankees were FIFTY-EIGHT GAMES OVER .500. They were arguably the best baseball team ever. No shit this year's team isn't as good as they were, even though they still have the best record in baseball. Which would typically mean that they are, you know, the best team.

It's funny that Barra mentions the 1998 squad because although they were historically awesome and finished 114-48, they seemingly ran out of gas towards the end of the season. After 126 games the Yankees were 94-32. From that point forward, though, the Yankees had just the 12th best record in baseball at 20-16, which was significantly buoyed by finishing the regular season on a 7 game winning streak. Then, lo and behold, they went 11-2 in the playoffs en route to a World Series Victory.

So be afraid! The Yankees have the best record in baseball but are not comparable to the best team ever!

[Update 11:50: Although Barra was suggesting that Jeter is the AL MVP for the Wall Street Journal in the piece that got FJM'd, he wrote for the Village Voice that Cap'n Jetes is no better than the 5th most valuable Yankee this year. Allen Barra: Logician.]

Tell Me Something Good

Good morning, Fackers. Let me give you two scenarios and tell me which one you would prefer:

#1: Andy Pettitte pitches poorly, lasting just 4 innings and gets tagged for six runs. The Yankees bats pick him up though, scoring eight of their own and walking away with the victory.

#2: Pettitte stumbles out of the gate, but at one point retires 11 consecutive batters, giving up three runs over six innings. The offense finally has a bad night against Joe Saunders and the Yanks come up short.

Okay, by now you probably already know what happened in the game and this exercise is pretty transparent. But the point is that Andy Pettitte finding his form without any soreness was more important than winning last night, although both would have been nice.

Pettitte actually had two outs and the bases empty after Chone Figgins got caught stealing in the first inning but he gave up a single to Bobby Abreu and then back to back doubles to Vlad Guererro and Torii Hunter to approximately the same spot in the gap in right-center. That string of hits drive in two runs and put the Yanks in the hole 2-0.

During the string of 11 straight batters the retired, Pettitte also made a nice reflex-type play on a liner back up the middle by Eric Aybar. Andy poked his glove out, stopping the ball and then dove to his knees and fired to first to get the speedy Aybar (who leads the league in bunt singles), just in time.

Pettitte's only other run came in the 5th inning when he walked Rob Quinlan on a 3-2 breaking ball that was just a little bit high. Quinlan ended up on third after a single by Jeff Mathis and a sac fly by Figgins and scored on a single by Aybar.

Pettitte was pulled after throwing 91 pitches and had this to say about his performance after the game, "Everything was good after the first inning. My cutters were hard, I felt like. I was getting balls back down in the zone, my two-seamer. Everything was running like I wanted it to."

In relief of Andy, Brain Bruney continued his quest to not make the postseason roster by serving up a solo homer to Kendry Morales in the 7th along with a single to Chone Figgins. Jon Albaladejo gave up another run in the 8th as well.

Joe Saunders had given up 18 runs in 20 1/3 innings against the Yankees coming into last night's game. He's a far better pitcher than that, and you might say that he was due for a better performance against the Bombers. The Yanks grounded into two double plays and only had three at bats with runners in scoring position, and came up empty on all of them.

The Yankees two runs came in the form of solo homers, one by A-Rod in the 7th inning as he continued to mash at the Big A. The next was the first pinch hit home run of Hideki Matsui's career in the 8th inning. It was yet another blast off a left hander by Matsui this year but it wasn't enough to bring the Yanks back in the game, even if the bullpen had done their job. Nick Swisher narrowly missed a HR in the bottom of the 9th, and Robby Cano came to the plate representing the tying tun, but the Yanks fell short, 5-2.

Aside from Pettitte looking steady in his return, there weren't too many positives to take away from this game for the Yanks. However, the Red Sox also lost, dropping the magic number to 8, and making the possibility of a late season charge by the Sox a little less probable. The Rangers won, though, so the playoff clinching non-celebration will have to wait.

The didn't do anything to deter the Angels from challenging for homefield advantage, so that will have to wait until tonight.