Hurricane Brett Lands in Boston...

Boston College Football coach Jeff Jagodzinski has been contacted by the New York Jets to interview for their Head Coach job. Coach Jags, a native of Wisconsin, was an offensive coordinator for Favre in Green Bay in 2006--he did not call plays and the next season after he left the Packers reached the NFC Championship Game where they lost to the eventual World Champion New York Giants--before being appointed Tom O'Brien's successor at my alma mater BC.

BC Athletic Director Gene DeFilippo has apparently issued an ultimatum that if Jags interviews with the Jets he will be canned. DeFilippo, who understandably does not want the BC Head Coach job to be a 1-2 year springboard for the NFL, claims that he had an "understanding" with Coach Jags that Jags would not leave for the NFL for at least 3 full seasons at The Heights. It is generally assumed among BC fans that this "understanding" was never expressly incorporated into the contract. Also presumably missing is a buy-out clause in which any other college or pro team would have to pay BC restitution for hiring Jags. There is also speculation that Jags lied to GDF about the interview.

At this point, despite this warning and not being among the favorites for the job, Jags is dead bent on interviewing for the job. According to a reliable source, Jags has grown wary of recruiting. This is despite his prior experience in the college game.

It really is a shame that it has come to this. Post Tom O'Brien, Jags was a source of fresh air for the program.

Below is my assessment of the culpability of DeFilippo and Jags as of 6:30 on Monday January 5, 2009.

Jags: Deserves blame for accepting job knowing full well about recruiting, for failing to live up to "BC Guy" character, i.e. undivided loyalty to the school, maybe lying to GDF about the interview, for being stupid to move his family into such an unstable position--i.e. giving up a guaranteed job for a washed up, Vicodin addict NFL Girly Man #1 who is QB for one of the most pathetic franchises in sports--the New York Jets

Gene DeFilippo: An idiot for (probably) not inserting "No Shop" clause into Jags' contract that would prohibit him interviewing for another job, no buyout clause, for issuing an ultimatum before the interview instead of waiting until after interview to fire him, for making this a national news story on a Monday, for placing too much emphasis on the Vandy bowl game loss, for not allowing Jags to attempt to use leverage for a contract increase.

Moral of the Story: Get an important concession in writing.

Moral of the Story #2: If you are looking for a new job, do not get caught by your current employer.

Moral of the Story #3: NFL Girly Man #1 extends his reputation by wrecking another home.

brain cashmna is teh worrssstt!!1!1!!

Yikes. Peter Abraham's pinch hitter yesterday doesn't think too much of Brian Cashman, apparently. After laying out only Cashman's moves that haven't worked out (in hindsight) including some that Abraham points out had nothing to do with Cash, he drops this little gem:

On top of all this, His drafts have been putrid. Aside for Joba, which one of his draftees impacted the majors? He drafted Bronson Sardina over David Wright for crying out loud. How Cashman manages to escape the media’s criticisms is beyond me.

If you want to criticize a GM, this easiest, laziest and least meaningful way to do it. I just looked at the first forty picks of the 2000 draft. Guess how many guys whose names I recognized as legitimate major league players? Seven, or eight if you count Billy Traber. Grady Sizemore was drafted 75th, 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee 105th, 2007 NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb 249th, James Shields 466th, and Jason Bay 645th. Ian Kinsler and Adam LaRoche were drafted back to back in the fucking 29th round with the two picks right after the Yankees took David Lindsay (who?). You get the picture. Why can you find good or even great players so late in the draft? Because player development and drafting are largely crapshoots. That's why there are multiple levels of minor leagues and the draft has 50 fucking rounds.

Well, that was a waste of time...

Sports Bigamy Alert!

Not too long ago, Kedra was palling around with Shawne Merriman and living at the Playboy Mansion. Now Hef has an open stall in his stable, and Kendra is getting married to Hank Baskett.

I know everyone has their own preferences, but if you like Chargers Kendra better, you are nuts.

A Better Stat For Running Backs

Let's say you are an NFL coach, and you have a running back that gains 100 yards on 25 carries and you could choose how to distribute those yards over those carries. You could have him break an 80 touchdown run, but then he would only have gained 20 yards on those other 24 carries, thereby completely bogging your offense down. The best use of those 100 yards would be to distribute them as evenly as possible, in this case being 4 yards for carry. The reason being...

Aaaand I fucking shit you not, right as I'm typing this up (ask Sampson), FOX runs a graphic breaking down Purple Jesus's 18 rushes for 76 yards by each carry.

-1,-1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 40, 6, 0, 6, 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 3, 0, 5

It saves me a lot of work, but wow that really steals the thunder of this post. Damn you FOX! How dare you listen in to my conversations with my roommate and instantly create a graphic solely to sabotage my shitty blog post that six people are going to read. Fuck.

Anyway, where was I? Ah, yes, even distribution. An even distribution is optimal because if you are picking up four yards every time, you can pick up a first down at will by running three times (theoretically, obviously picking up 4 yards on 3rd & 4 is not the same as on 1st & 10). You can put your team in good down/distance situations, opening up your offensive options. Simply put, given similar total yards and yards per carry, a guy who consistently picks up yards is more valuable than the one who gets you a few big gains but many short runs.

For the sake of argument, I'll say that 4 yards is the cutoff for a "valuable run" (VR). You run for 3 yards 3 times and you still have 4th & 1, so I think you've gotta round up. Look again at PJ's carries again. Out of 18, only 5 of them were VRs. Using the easy method of calculating yards per carry, he's averaging 4.2 YPC. Slightly better than my arbitrary determination of valuable.

What I propose is that in calculating YPC, have 10 yards be the maximum amount per carry. You can make more specific adjustments based on the distance remaining for a first down, but I really don't feel like laying out the specifics at the moment. You could call the stat something nerdy to piss of sportswriters, like VYPR (Valuable Yards Per Rush). Got a better one? Leave it in the comments?

Now, using my new, awesome and completely original formula (probably not) PJ is only averaging 2.5 yards per carry, well below the 4 yard "valuable" threshold. I don't mean to blaspheme Purple Jesus, I'm just trying to say that the 4.2 YPC somewhat overstates his value in that particular game.

[Update - 7:20pm] I type this whole thing up and Westbrook who had 16 touches for 32 yards before this basically wins the game on a 71 yard screen pass. Seem familiar, Giants fans?

[Update - 7:34pm] Wow, after TJack does a great job of reinforcing negative black QB stereotypes by throwing a bunch of shitty passes then breaking a huge run, a fumbled snap essentially ends the game. That was anti-climactic and the fucking Eagles won. I was a much happier person when I started writing this post.

Note: 20th Century FOX assumes responsibility for all cursing in this post.

Why Do 8-8 Teams Host Playoff Games?

Like Joe, I would have picked the Colts and the Falcons yesterday. Objectively, analytically, theoretically they seemed like the better teams. Manning's Colts had won 9 straight, and Matty Ice's Falcons had taken 5 out of their last 6. They both had better records than the 8-8 division winners, and were Vegas favorites. Now we are left to grapple with annoying football analyst talking points like home field advantage.

In a single game, how much does it really matter? Ironically, in baseball, where you have the tangible advantage of batting in the bottom half of the inning, home field advantage creates a 54/46 advantage, slightly less significant than in football (56/44). Vegas says 3 points, Bill Simmons says "nawt that impawtahnt any mahwah", so who really knows? One would imagine crowd noise certainly can have a greater motivational impact on players in more physical-effort-oriented sports. The adrenaline spike provided by the crowd's cheers isn't going to help Mariano Rivera locate his cutter, but it might help Brandon Jacobs punch it into the endzone. Regardless, can we just give HFA to the better team?

It's bad enough that winning a division automatically grants a team a playoff berth when teams with better records get locked out. That's probably not going to change. But those teams get to host the game too? Why? Both the Cardinals and the Chargers were 3-7 outside their division. Can we please at least give home field advantage to the team with the better record?

As a fan of a team with a first round bye, I am thrilled by the outcomes of yesterday's games (sorry Joe). Let these teams win at home in their domes, because next weekend those teams are going on the road to the blustery Meadowlands or to chilly (in January) Charlotte, where the Panthers went 8-0 this season. But taking my personal rooting interests (for this season alone) out of the equation, the system is kinda retarded.

Joba Mania

I'm not talking about the Yanks fans' intense adoration for the prized flamethrower. Every Yankee fan has it to a varying degree. I remember watching clips of his relief appearances at AAA on YouTube before he made his MLB debut and everyone still thought his name was pronounced "Joe-Bah". He's the type of talent a team brings up once every 5 or 10 years, and he receives love and loyalty from the fans that it will take the two double-initialed free agents a long time to attain. The kid has a near 100mph fastball and pinpoint control, with a slider that hitters can't identify until their hands are passing their belt buckle. He strikes out about 11 guys per every 9 innings and he probably hates Youkilis more than we do! He's got it all. And the adulation is well deserved.

Rather, I'm talking about the amazing effect the "starter vs. reliever" debate has on people, and the crazy things it makes them say. Exhibit A, Justin Sablich of the NYTimes Bats Blog:

Chamberlain in the bullpen would most likely make each starting pitcher better by shortening his starts. Fans concerned about Sabathia burning out in September or Burnett breaking down over the long haul could rest a little easier.

Over the course of an entire season, how many innings is Joba going to save Sabathia or Burnett from throwing? Joba's not available every day, and every time a starter takes the mound, he's not handing over a close game to the bullpen in the 7th inning. Looking through Burnett's game logs from last year on B-R, I counted 16 out of 31 starts where he pitched 6 or more innings in a game decided by 3 or fewer runs. It's obviously a rough calculation, and I'm being generous to his argument by including both wins (10) and losses (6).

Even if you assume Joba is available for every one of those starts, is Joe Girardi really going to leave a starter on the mound for an extra inning each of those starts because Jose Veras or Damaso Marte is coming in, instead of Joba Chamberlain? I would say the length of a starting pitcher's outing has a lot more to do with the performance of that starting pitcher than the options the manager has in the bullpen.

Anyway, lets just say that in those 16 starts, Joba saves Burnett 1/3 of an inning half of the time and 2/3 of an inning half of the time. That amounts to a grand total of 8 innings. Does anyone think that 8 or even 10-12 innings are going to make the difference between Burnett "breaking down" or not?

As I'm sure you can tell by now, I think Joba should be a starter. I was on the fence when they originally made the shift last year, but after seeing him be more efficient with his pitches and still look downright dominant as a starter, most of the questions I had were answered. I think boils down to the concept of VORP (value over replacement player).

When you take Joba out of the rotation, he gets replaced by (Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves). When you take him out of the bullpen, his innings are replaced by Veras, Marte, Brain Bruney, Edwar Ramirez, Phil Coke and possibly some AAA call ups like Mark Melancon all of whom are competent relievers. Looking at it that way, I think you have to conclude that the Yanks have a lot more to lose by filling that empty rotation spot with a (or a series of) giant question mark(s) than shifting their bullpen back an inning.

The great thing about this debate is that there is no wrong way to use Joba. There might be a "less right" way, but there is certainly no horribly, obviously wrong decision. In all likelihood, you are getting valuable innings from an awesome pitcher. Health, like with all pitchers, is the main issue. Maybe he would have gotten injured even if they left him in the bullpen last year. Or perhaps his body type and pitching style are more suited to the "fewer innings but more outings" demands relief pitching. There's only one way to find out, and in choosing between two uncertainties, I'll take the one with higher potential value.

Mark Schlereth Sizes Up The Giants Potential Opponents

Every so often we are lucky enough to have "Mark Schlereth" write an NFL column for us, jam-packed with meaningless cliches and the word "FOOTBALL".

Today's topic: Who the Giants most want to play out of the 4 NFC teams active this weekend. Take it away "Mark"...

I'll tell you what fellas, there's nothing I look forward to more than the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs in The National FOOTBALL League. This is when teams put all their chips on the table and all of a sudden its DO or DIE. You get players puttin' their hard hats on and goin' to work, because that's what it means to be a professional FOOTBALL player in the National FOOTBALL League. You get guys stepping up in the big moment, putting their team on their back and leaving it all out there on the FOOTBALL field. You figure out who the guys who know how to win are, and who doesn't have what it takes to get the job done.

In my opinion the New York FOOTBALL Giants are the best FOOTBALL team in the National FOOTBALL League right now. They can run the FOOTBALL down your throat or Eli Manning can pick you apart. Here's how I think the other teams match up with the New York FOOTBALL Giants, with the threat they pose to the Giants, on a scale of one to four FOOTBALLS "(l)".

The Falcons: (l)(l)(l)(l)

Here's a great story. You got Matty Ryan, throwin' the pigskin around out there like he's still playing FOOTBALL at Boston College, you got Michael Turner runnin' the FOOTBALL, and you've got a good, solid defense out on the FOOTBALL field. See what happens when a team gets rid of a QB with a low FOOTBALL IQ, and replaces with someone who can make good decisions with the FOOTBALL? These guys are dangerous.

Cardinals: (l)(l)(l)

The Cardinals have got a great veteran leader that knows how to galvanize the clubhouse in Kurt Warner. They've got two of the best wide recievers in the National FOOTBALL League. I'm tellin' ya, these guys can really catch the FOOTBALL and make some plays downfield. The problem I've got with the Cardinals is that they werre 5-1 against the National FOOTBALL Conference West, but only 3-7 versus the rest of the National FOOTBALL League including a loss to the Giants. But with a proven leader like Kurt Warner, you can never count them out of a FOOTBALL game.

The Eagles: (l)(l)

Here's a FOOTBALL team, that when I look at them, I say "If they could get over their issues at QB and get a guy in there like Brett Favre, they could really be a dangerous FOOTBALL team". Donvan McNabb just doesn't have the awareness or ability to read defenses to play quarterback in the National FOOTBALL League.

The Vikings: (l)

When I look at the Vikings, I see a FOOTBALL team that the New York FOOTBALL Giants nearly beat with DAVID CARR leading the troops in the second half of that FOOTBALL game. Like the Eagles, Vikings clearly have a QB problem because the FOOTBALL is being snapped to a guy like Tavaris Jackson. He's not my idea of a lunch-pail, hard hat sort of a guy, and he obviously lacks the awareness and intelligence to lead a FOOTBALL team in the National FOOTBALL League.

So If I'm the New York FOOTBALL Giants, I'm looking at the Minnesota Vikings and saying "Here's a FOOTBALL team that I can punch in the mouth and really move the FOOTBALL on".

Thanks "Mark", I'm sure we'll hear from you again soon.

Eagles v. Vikings Preview

This late game on Sunday has plenty of storylines: Reid v. Childress, Westbrook v. Peterson, McNabb as a future Viking?, Reid’s last game? Are the Eagles this year's Giants?

The Eagles defense ranked 3rd overall in the regular season whereas the Vikings ranked 2nd. Versus the run, the Vikings were 1st while the Eagles were 4th. Therefore, expect this game to be won in the air. This benefits the Eagles, as the Vikings D ranked 18th against the pass compared to 3rd for the Eagles. McNabb is more experienced and despite having a tendency for throwing at the feet of his receivers, is less prone to turning the ball over than Tarvaris Jackson is. Expect 3 or more turnovers from the Vikings as a result of Jim Johnson stacking the box to stop APIII and complex blitzing schemes. The Eagles should have a fumble return for a TD or Pick 6.

Pick:

Eagles: 24
Vikings: 10

Wow, I picked all 4 road teams to win.

Ravens v. Dolphins Preview

Baltimore’s Joe “Skinny” Flacco and John Harbaugh join Matt Ryan and Mike Smith as the second rookie quarterback/rookie head coach combination in the Playoffs this year.
Tony Sparano, prohibitive favorite for NFL Coach of the Year, and Chad Pennington, the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year, lead last year’s 1-15 Dolphins team while their respective former teams, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets, who bailed on them are sitting home and whining about what went wrong.

This should be a low-scoring game thanks in part to Baltimore’s 2nd ranked defense. Miami needs to be opportunistic to win and score on a couple of Wildcat plays or a Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return. I think Baltimore grinds it out and wins the most boring game of the Playoffs. Hey, at least the Pats aren’t playing.

Pick:

Ravens: 17
Dolphins: 14

Analyzing The Giants Regular Season Stats

The NFL regular season has come and gone, and the Giants have locked up homefield advantage throughout. This week has been rather quiet in Giantsland, and until they find out who thier opponent is, it will remain quiet. So I'm going to take this opportunity to go over some of the G-Men's regular season results. I already mentioned the fact that they tied the record for fewest turnovers in a season, but here are some more interesting tidbits:

• Domenik Hixon was actually their leading reciever, with 596 yards, followed closely by Toomer (580) and Plax (574). There were six guys with more than 30 catches and 384+ yards. That's what you call "spreading it around" folks.
• Eli Manning had far an away his best season, throwing only 10 INTs and boasting a passer rating (86.4) 10 points higher than his next closest season. He was much more similar to the QB he was last year in the playoffs than he was during last year's regular season.
• Much has already been said about Jacobs and Ward both going for over 1,000 yards on the season, but Ward also caught 41 passes for 384 yards, at 9.4 yards a pop. That wouldn't be a great average for a wide receiver, but remember that almost all of those passes are either screens or dump offs and he's getting a ton of yards after the catch.
• Ahmad Bradshaw carried the ball for 355 yards on 67 attempts, the third RB averaging over 5 yards a carry, although this was certainly helped by his 77 yard near TD run against Baltimore (note: I'll have a post about this sort of thing in the next few days). He's excellent for a second year player and should be ready to take on a bigger role the next year when all signs point to the Giants losing at least one of their top two guys to free agency.
• Tuck (12) and Kiwanuka (8) combined for 20 of the team's 42 sacks, down from 53 last year. The team really did miss Osi and Strahan, but still did an admirable job of getting to the QB.
• After a slow start, the Giants came away with 17 interceptions, 3 more than 2007.

Should be a great weekend for Football... 4 games over two days and Joe's got the previews to prove it. Go Vikings.

Colts v. Chargers Preview

At the midpoint of the season one would think that it would be nearly impossible for one of these teams, let alone both, to get into the playoffs. Following off-season knee surgery, Peyton Manning was stinking up the joint early. The Colts broke out of the gate losing their first two games. After reaching 3-4, they won 9 straight to finish at 12-4, breaking their own record by winning 12 or more games 6 years in a row. Despite not putting up his normal numbers, 2008 MVP Manning provided invaluable leadership while key cogs such as RB Joseph Addai and SS Bob Sanders were hurt. Manning enters Saturday night’s game with a 70+% completion percentage in each of his last 4 games and without throwing an interception in December. The Colts finally appear to be healthy.

After referee Ed Hochuli screwed them on a call against the Broncos in Week 2, the Chargers appeared listless. Up and down all season, they lost 3 straight games in November to leave them at 4-8. Thanks in part due to the fire was lit in Phillip River’s ass after finding out that NFL Girly Man #1 Brett Favre beat him out for a Pro Bowl spot and the healing of LaDainian Tomlinson’s toe, the Chargers won 4 straight in December. They currently rival the Colts as the NFL’s hottest team. However, LDT now has a strained hamstring. Despite probably being available for Saturday night’s game, this is not exactly what the Chargers need. Expect Fake LT to be limited and for Darren Sproles to receive plenty of action.

The Colts and the Chargers are very familiar with each other; Saturday night’s affair represents the sixth time that they have met since 2004, with the Bolts winning four of those contests. In last year’s Divisional Round match up at the RCA Dome, the Chargers defeated the Colts before losing to the Patriots, who finished the season at 18-1. Earlier this season at Qualcomm Stadium, the Colts defeated the Chargers 23-20.

I expect this game to be won in the air by the Colts. San Diego’s passing defense is second-worst in the NFL. Give me 3 TDs by Manning—one each to Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez—and one to Joseph Addai. Despite big games by Fake LT and Sproles, River’s brilliant stretch comes to end against the Colts, who have let up only six passing touchdowns all season.

Pick:

Colts: 28
Chargers: 24

Falcons v. Cardinals Preview

Very comprehensive article about Matty Ice by Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson on the young career of the future perennial All-Pro.

Expect the AP Offensive Rookie of the year to have about 3 TDs and 250 yards in his playoff debut versus the Arizona Cardinals (who have given up 36 Passing TDs this year). However, the key to the game will be the Falcons ground attack. When Ryan has fewer than 30 passing attempts, the Falcons are 11-0. Another factor will be stopping the talented receiving duo of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, which can be accomplished by John Abraham getting pressure on Warner early and often.

Lucky draw for the Falcons considering that Arizona is last in the league in rushing and Atlanta's weakness is its Run D.

Pick:

Atlanta: 31
Arizona: 24

Frank Deford: Old

Frank actually lives around the block from me on the Upper West Side. I know this because I see him walking a small, fluffy, white dog from time to time. He's surprisingly tall, in a rickety, stilt-ish sort of way and moves slowly and creakily over the sidewalks. That's how I know he's old.

For anyone else who would like evidence, I present this article he wrote for NPR.com.

So, yes, thank the Lord for the Yankees. With their seats selling for as much as $2,500 a game while they ask a struggling New York City for an additional $259 million in tax-free bonds to help finance their new stadium and while they sign free agents for well over $400 million — far more than the other 29 major league teams have spent cumulatively — the Yankees present themselves as the very model of arrogance and let-'em-eat-cakeness. Henceforth, I will be calling the Yankees the Antoinettes. You may wish to, as well.

Yes, friends, you may wish to refer to a modern sports team by the name of an 18th century Queen of France, but the person you are talking to will think you are insane. Here's the funny part: Her full name was Maria Antonia Josepha Johanna von Habsburg-Lothringen (thanks Wikipedia). Marie Antoinette was a Habsburg and since she was a female, her offspring wouldn't have been referred to as "Antoinettes" either. Unless there is an even more obscure family/person he is referring to, I'm pretty sure he just made this up.

If you want to make a hokey analogy comparing a European dynasty to the Yankees, how about the Medicis? The Medicis were probably the richest family in Europe during the 15th century, and used wealth attained by the Medici Bank to commission works of art by the greatest artists of that era including Michaelango, Donatello, Rafael and Leonardo. Actually, I just listed the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, but they really did commission Michaelangelo.

I get the point of comparing the Yankees to a European dynasty. The money, the excess, the history... sure. But all the teams and their owners are ridiculously rich too and some are ever richer than the Steinbrenners. The Yankees exploit their advantages of history/tradition and market size and and use them to be consistently competitive on the field. What would happen if the Yankees had a payroll that blended in with the top 5 or 10 teams, something like $110-115 million? They would probably attract fewer fans. I highly doubt that these fans would want to root for a different team, they most likely just wouldn't be baseball fans.

Will said it with more vulgarity and anger than I possibly could, but the Yankees aren't ruining baseball. They generate money for others directly (revenue sharing, road attendance) and indirectly (luxury tax and TV Ratings). They might not be good for your team, but they are good for baseball.