Sky Kalkman Suggests Jeter Should Bat 6th... CRUCIFY HIM!

Over ESPN's new Insider-only saberblog TMI (which stands for "The Max Info" but was clearly named by someone who doesn't care much for baseball's statistical revolution and thinks they are very clever) Mr. Kalkman suggests a lineup that would surely make Dusty Baker's head explode:

1. Nick Johnson (L)
2. Mark Teixeira (S)
3. Curtis Granderson (L)
4. Alex Rodriguez (R)
5. Robinson Cano (L)
6. Derek Jeter (R)
7. Nick Swisher (S)
8. Jorge Posada (S)
9. Brett Gardner (L)

But, but, but... Nick Johnson would clog up the basepaths!!1!1

Seriously though, that batting order kind of blows my mind a little bit as well. In a good way. I like counterintuitive thinking and this certainly qualifies as "outside of the box". The underlying principles for Kalkman's method of lineup construction can be found in this piece.

As David Pinto pointed out when projecting the Yankees offense earlier this winter, the difference between the Yankees absolute best and worst lineups is about 1/4 of a run per game. The difference between the one that performed the best in the simulations and the one Joe Girardi is likely to use is .08 of a run (13 runs a year). Simply put, the order you arrange the batters probably doesn't matter very much unless you do something stupid like bat A-Rod 8th (and even then, not very much). But lineup construction is a popular topic in sabermetric circles because it's relatively simple to tinker with from afar and fool around with mathematically.

Here is Kalkman's justification for the slow-footed OBP Jesus hitting leadoff:

At the top of the order, getting on base is king, and while Jeter’s very good in that arena, Johnson is OBP royalty. And since Johnson will only be in the lineup against righties anyway, his offensive advantage over Jeter is even larger. Jeter has the ability to steal bases, but that ability is actually overrated in front of hitters who will walk (because a walk pushes the leadoff hitter to second base without the risk of an out) and pound out extra-base hits (often scoring the runner from first base). Jeter’s ability to steal bases would be more useful lower in the order, in front of singles hitters -- not that the Yankees really have any of those on the team. In short, swapping 25 times on base for 25 stolen bases isn't a price worth paying at the leadoff spot.

One thing I strongly disagree with is the suggestion that Johnson "will only be in the lineup against righties". He doesn't have much of a platoon split and has actually been better against lefties over the course of his career. The Yanks already have two guys in Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson who are susecptable to left handed pitching. Who, exactly, is going to take Johnson's place?

Here is why Sky has Jeter batting 6th:

Next comes Jeter, who can run wild on all the doubles hit by Swisher and Posada, although these three are so close that their order doesn’t matter much. (Having Jeter as low as sixth is going to get me in enough trouble, so I won’t slide him down any further.)

Baserunning skills are more important in front of guys who hit a lot of singles and doubles as opposed to those who walk a lot and hit home runs, so that makes a good deal of sense.

There is no doubt that when Joe Girardi fills out his lineup card in Fenway on April 4th, Jeter is going to hit leadoff. He was excellent in that role last year and with a .388 career OBP, he's certainly a worthy candidate. Based on what has been said in Tampa this Spring, Johnson will probably bat second; the fact that Girardi is willing to pencil him in there is a testament to his forward thinking.

Coaches in any sport are reluctant put their neck on the line by straying from the generally accepted principles and as Pinto's projections show, there just isn't that much to be gained by changing between two very good lineups. It would take some real courage/insanity to go with anything like the order that Kalkman is suggesting, but it makes for an interesting discussion topic at least.

Life Or Death

Forget competing for a spot in the rotation, according to the New York Post, Joba Chamberlain was apparently pitching for his life yesterday in Tampa. That or they felt the need to remark on the fact that he - like roughly 6 billion other people on this planet - is still in existence.

In the biggest start in the history of anything, Joba was spellbinding. With his entire pitching career hanging in the balance, he summoned a thoroughly gutsy performance, throwing three innings of one run ball in a fucking exhibition game. Hold your applause, please.

/end sarcasm

I know the Post is in the business of making things seem more important than they are, but the notion that Joba's destiny as a starting pitcher hinges on one fucking scrimmage is pretty laughable.

As our friend Joe Pawlikowski pointed out yesterday, almost everyone in the race to be 5th starter (sorry Chad Gaudin) has "led" the competition at one point or another.

First it was Sergio Mitre.

If, as the Yankees insist, there is a genuine competition for the No. 5 spot in Joe Girardi's rotation, then Sergio Mitre is atop the early leader board.

Then Alfredo Aceves.

Whatever approach Aceves is trying this spring with the Yankees, it appears to be working. Considered an unlikely contender for the fifth spot in the rotation, the right-hander has arguably outpitched the competition so far.

Then Phil Hughes.

Hughes has worked eight and two-thirds innings in spring training, allowing seven hits, two runs and two walks, with four strikeouts. If Hughes was the leader for the fifth spot coming into camp, he’s done nothing to lose that standing.

Now Joba is back into the mix. OR IS HE HEADED TO THE BULLPEN?

Some believe Chamberlain and Hughes in the bullpen make the Yankees a stronger team. But Chamberlain had pitched so poorly in the last game that the option of sending him to Triple-A was in the air before the game.

"We will discuss that [Triple-A], but he has had a lot of success out of the bullpen," Girardi said. "We put him back there in the playoffs and he did a good job."

And he apparently will get another chance to help the Yankees where he has been the best - in the bullpen.

Wha-wha-what?

I'm sorry, George A. King III, but I'm going to have to ask you to back up your logic train for inspection.

1. Some people think the Yankees would be better off with both Hughes and Joba in the bullpen. I don't know who these people are, but apparently G.A.K.III does.
   
   
2. Joba was pitching poorly, so the Yanks thought about sending him to AAA.
   
   
3. But the minors are no longer a possibility because of three innings that he pitched against the what was left of the Phillies' lineup in a Spring Training game.
   
   
4. Joe Girardi admitted that AAA is an option but also thinks that Joba was good out of the bullpen in the playoffs, which is, um, debatable.
   
   
5. JOBA WILL BE PITCHING OUT OF THE BULLPEN THIS SEASON.

I don't know who I feel worse for, King, for having to feed the beast and write this drivel or the poor schlub riding a subway somewhere, reading the Post, who actually takes this shit at face value.

17 more days until things actually start to matter. God help us until then.

Pleading The Fifth (Starter)

So far this spring, we've tried valiantly to steer clear of the 5th starter conversation, mostly because it's so far from being decided and thus is prone to baseless speculation. In fact, on Monday we used it as an example of the type overplayed subject that we typically try to avoid after a certain point of saturation. However, at the risk of boring you all to fucking tears, I'm going to run down some of the thoughts I have about this that go against the conventional New York tabloid wisdom.

First, regardless of what Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland would like you, Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin to believe, the 5th slot in the rotation is not an open competition. Obviously, it's in the best interest of the Yankees' coaches to try to convince Mitre or Gaudin that they are competitng for a spot as a motivational tool. Those two might find their way into the bullpen or increase their trade value as a corollary. In the short term, it might make even some sense to seriously consider one of them for that 5th spot. But in the big picture of the franchise, looking beyond 2010, it makes no sense.

As Joe from RAB pointed out last night, there's almost nothing in Sergio Mitre's track record that suggests he could be successful as a starter for a team in the AL, much less the AL East, much less the Yankees. The same probably could be said for Gaudin, but he has had better results thus fan into his career and has the ability to float between the rotation and the bullpen when needed. Either guy would be a decent option as a spot starter or in the case of an injury, but I don't think they should be the first choice when camp breaks regardless of how well they've been pitching. Small sample sizes and all of that.

As such, this is a essentially a two horse race between Hughes and Chamberlain with Alfredo Aceves being the only other candidate with a real shot. Considering that arming the top four places in their rotation cost them $62.75M this year, the Yankees should understand the value of a starting pitcher as well as any team. Hughes, Chamberlain and to a lesser extent Aceves are young, have high ceilings and several years of team control remaining. They are the ones who have the best shot at becoming low-cost rotation options for years to come.

The Yanks should be concerned with winning this year, but since their top four starters are so solid, they can probably afford to give that last spot (at least initially) to one of the players who is most likely to help the franchise in that role long term even if they haven't been the best this spring.

So what happens to the two guys out of the top three who don't get the first crack at the 5th spot? River Ave. Blues already discussed why it would be a waste to send Hughes and Aceves back to the minors, so they go to the bullpen. But what about Joba? Might he benefit from a trip down to the farm if he doesn't find his groove by the end of Spring Training?

Here are the two most oft-cited arguments against sending a player who has already achieved MLB success back to AAA:

1. They have nothing left to prove.
   
   
2. You are wasting their production by leaving them off the Major League roster.

As for the first one, this is more of a mental issue than a statistical one and probably varies on a case by case basis. Joba may take umbrage with being sent back to Scranton and that in turn could harm his production. More importantly though, I don't think that this platitude even applies to the 2010 version of Joba.

The last time Joba pitched in the minors, Doug Mientkiewicz was still on the Yankees. He's only thrown 88 1/3 innings down on the farm and only 8 in AAA. Compare that to Phil Hughes, who has 330 MiLB IP under his belt.

More importantly - as we so often remind ourselves when trying to reason with those who think Joba was born to be a reliever - he's not the same pitcher he was in 2007. He's not working with the same velocity and is now attempting to mix in his curveball and his changeup significantly more often. I doubt Joba would be happy with a demotion, but I'm fairly certain it might help him work on some of the skills it takes to be a starting pitcher, i.e. being efficient with his pitch count and refining his curve and change.

In regards to the second point, it's probably true that stashing Joba in Scranton would result in a lesser pitcher taking his spot in the Major League bullpen. However, due to bullpen chaining, it's not likely to make that much of a difference. That drop off appears even less significant when weighed against the positive benefits it could have on his long term development.

All things considered, Joba starting the year in AAA might be the best case scenario. Hughes winning the job and pitching well while Joba learns some important starting pitcher skills in Scranton might set the Yankees up the best for next year when both Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez could potentially be gone.

While most of the mainstream commentary on the 5th starter has focused on the 2010 season alone, I think it's important to focus on how the decisions that are made this Spring factor into the fate of the franchise over the next couple of years. Because you can be sure that's what Brain Cashman is doing.

Feedbackatcha

On Monday, we asked you Fackers for some feedback in hopes that we could better align the content of this blog with your preferences as the readers of it. Most of the time, blogging is a one way interaction. The writer churns out content while the audience takes it in. Sure, commenting is an option, but it's only utilized by a small fraction of the readership and it typically focuses on the subjects within a post and not the overall style and approach of the site.

In principle, I think it's better for the parties involved in an interaction to know what's going on, so we want to give you an idea of what you can expect from us in plain terms. I'm going to go through a few of the things that were brought up in that last post and subsequently in the comments regarding the way we do things around here. I'm sure there are some of you who could care less about this meta-bullshit, but for those who do, here we go:

1. First off, thanks to everyone who responded. It's always good to hear from some of the people who read the site but don't usually comment. We like being reminded that you are more than a bunch of numbers on Google Analytics. Hopefully we can build up the community around here a little more when the regular season rolls around and increase the depth of the discussion in the comments.
   
   
2. Bad news for those who said they enjoy the humor they get here. All jokes, sarcasm, witticisms, bad puns, photoshops, wisecracking, mock-righteous outrage, flippancy, shenanigans, tomfoolery, jocularity, and other various forms of levity are STRICTLY FORBIDDEN FROM NOW ON.
   
   
3. The amount of content - This was the biggest hang up for me, but most of you say you are a lot more concerned with the quality of what is written than the frequency with which it is posted. I, like many bloggers, have a borderline compulsive urge to create new content likely exacerbated by Google Analytics, so it's nice to know that you guys will come back even if we don't post 5 times a day like we did for the better part of last season.
   
   
4. Until the regular season starts, we are going to try to put together at least one post every weekday and aim that for 9 AM. It might not be right on time and there might be additional ones after that or on the weekends, but one every morning seems doable. Hopefully more during the regular season.
   
   
5. As far as our game-to-game coverage, we are going to continue with our song previews. We'll do our best not to repeat the stuff from last year, but we reserve the right to bust out something like "Going Out West" from time to time and avoid out-thinking ourselves.
   
   
6. There were a lot of folks who said they enjoyed them so we are going to keep up our game recaps in some capacity as well. We'll knock out something in essay form if the occasion is called for, but will probably do something shorter like bullet points on most nights. No guarantees on weekends.
   
   
7. Linkarounds will continue. Glad that you guys like them because I look at them to be win-win-win. They're relatively easy to put together, it gives you a lot of optional reading material and also drives a small amount of traffic to the other sites I'm linking to. I might start adding some non-sports like the stuff I share on Google Reader as well, but we'll see what happens.

Okay, that's about it. As always, your inputs are welcome. Leave some comments, send us an email. We'll be around.

Morning Linkaround

Back by popular demand....

While many of the original reports indicated that Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechevarria chose the Blue Jays over the Yankees because he would have an easier path to the Majors sans Derek Jeter, it turns out that the extra $1.5M that the Jays offered might have had a little something to do with that as well. River Ave. Blues notes that the $8.5M the Yankees offered would have been by far the largest signing bonus they've ever given to a prospect. One one hand, it's a little disappointing to see a good player slip away, but on the other, the non-stop media chatter about when Derek Jeter is going to move off shortstop with Hechevarria nipping at his heels would have been played out by the end of the week.

Over the weekend, our pal Marc Carig asked Mark Teixeira what he would do improve sports on an executive level. In Sunday's paper, they talked about a College Football playoff, NFL overtime, the International Olympics Committee, Boxing, March Madness and Interleague Play. Yesterday, Carig ran the leftover questions on his blog. Teix has some intelligent opinions on all of the above, so be sure to check them out.

Cliff Corcoran at Bronx Banter has been doing an admirable job of keeping up with the goings on down in Tampa by recapping the games. Yesterday he offered a Status Report detailing the the performances of the players so far. If you haven't been paying attention, it's a nice cheat sheet.

Will Leitch previews the Yankees over at Deadspin.

A-Rod is sick and tired of being asked about Anthony Galea. So sick and tired that he apparently got up and walked away form reporters when someone said the words "Canadian doctor" yesterday. Can you blame him? Nothing new has come up and as Moshe Mandel pointed out last week, he has legitimate reasons for dealing with Galea.

I'm pretty sure that this means that Ronan Tynan will never be setting foot in Yankee Stadium again.

Our old buddy Chien-Mind Wang threw his first bullpen of the spring.

At FanGraphs, Matthew Carruth explores the differences between the Vegas over/unders and the win totals extrapolated from their site's Fan predictions. Of course, Vegas makes their odds on how people bet, not how they think the teams will do. So in comparing Vegas to FanGraphs readers, you get a contrast between how educated fans feel about a team versus how the betting public does. It will be interesting to revisit those at the end of the season.

Morgan Ensberg gives his side of the Lidge vs. Puljos story in much more depth than you usually hear from a player.

The newest Jim Bowden video is out and in it, the former Nats GM discusses the Roy Halladay trade with Ruben Amaro, Jr., Alex Anthopoulos, Jack Zduriencik and Billy Beane. I find these videos especially amusing because Bowden looks like a C-grade actor hired to play the part of a bad GM. And for all we know, that might have been the case.

Speaking of Roy, he bought a new house in Philly.

Finally, this is good for a couple of laughs:

As Jonah points out, Fernando Perez isn't your average baseball player.

Asking For Some Feedback From You

One of the things I struggle with most about creating a stream of content for a blog is one of the most basic principles taught in any writing class: writing for the appropriate audience. Well, part of the reason for that is in academia, who you're writing for is much simpler to define - it's your teacher unless otherwise stated. With a blog, the audience is incredibly diverse, with people of all ages, in a variety of locations, with incredibly disparate reading habits, each looking for something unique.

Every reader that comes to the site brings a slightly different perspective with them. You folks come from all over the country and the world (in the last month we've had visits from 109 countries spread out on every continent except Antarctica). You folks all have a different daily rotation of blogs that you read and you emerse yourself in them to varying extents. How can we cater to those who read tons of Yankee and other baseball blogs at the same time as we take care of those who read relatively few? The answer is that you really can't. You have to try to find some sort of a happy medium.

One of the most important distinctions there is among the readership of any blog is the way that the site is consumed, either through the website or via RSS. When we weren't posting last week, someone who primarily visits the homepage probably checked back a few times before the week was over to see if there was a new post, only to come up empty. However, those who read via RSS probably didn't care or even notice our impromptu hiatus - they are automatically notified when one of our posts goes up and don't spend much time worrying about when the next one will come. Essentially, there is a significant portion of our readership who isn't concerned with how often we post, and another, larger section to whom the volume of content is extremely important.

This is how I imagine the dichotomy looks:

For instance, a blog like Wezen-Ball is best enjoyed through an RSS feed because although Larry doesn't post very often, when he does, it's extremely good. MLB Trade Rumors, on the other hand, is updated often enough for people to be able to check back every few hours and find some new things to read.

In general, people who visit the homepage get drawn back more often by a large number of posts but will get out of the habit of checking the homepage it it's not updated frequently enough. On the other hand, those who read via RSS are more likely to be annoyed by an unwieldy volume of them since they have probably already subscribed to about as many (or likely more) blogs than they can comfortably keep up with. But, they can also tolerate a very low volume of posts.

There is a theoretical sweet spot where those lines two meet, but given the standards we hold ourself to here, it's probably not possible for us to post that much quality content that often.

I think we usually manage find a pretty good balance between quantity and quality, but March is probably the worst time of year for our style of blogging. We don't do a lot of straight reporting of the news around here and because of that, it turns out to be much more difficult for us to find content during Spring Training than it is from November to mid-February. There are only so many stupid posts about Youk we can put out and so many hacky columns in the New York papers that we can make fun of.

This time of year there is a constant supply of news emanating from Florida, but it's the type of stuff that is not worth analyzing. We all know that what happens in Spring Training isn't to be taken too seriously, and since we try to do more than just blockquote a beat writer and state the obvious, there simply isn't that much to say. Not all of us can be like the dudes from River Ave. Blues and continually come up with interesting topics out of thin air without so much as a meaningful baseball game to draw upon.

With a few exceptions, you folks don't tend to comment a whole lot. We normally don't solicit comments either, but we could certainly use some feedback on this.

A few starting points:

• What do you expect from a baseball blog in general?
  
  
• What have you come to expect from us in particular?
  
  
• How often do you check the site and are there specific times during the day and week that you do so?
  
  
• How much do you value quality over quantity (or vice versa)?
  
  What kind of posts (linkarounds, historically-slanted pieces, FJM-style, straight news, etc) would you like to see more or less of?
  
  
• We might have to ask again when the regular season rolls around, but what would you like to see from a blog when in comes to game-to-game coverage?
  
  
• Do you enjoy our signature game previews wherein we choose a different song for every one?
  
  
• Is it worth putting together a full recap for every game, or would you like to see something more streamlined like bullet points and/or some graphical data?

We'd certainly appreciate if you could take some time and leave your thoughts - even if it's something quick about just one of those questions - in the comments. You aren't going to hurt our feelings by telling us you don't like something. We're not simply fishing for compliments, so feel free to be honest. If you enjoy the blog here's a good chance to tell us why. If you have some criticisms, now would be a good time to voice those as well.

We're all ears...

First Round Of Cuts In Yankee Camp

Good morning Fackers. Did you miss us? Other aspects of life necessitated that both Jay and I take a little break from blogging last week. Thankfully there isn't much of consequence happening in Spring Training these days, unless you feel the need to read yet another post about who should be the fifth starter or fifth outfielder.

But here we are at the Ides of March, the Yankees' second to last off day before they break camp. We're into Daylight Savings Time and less than three weeks from Opening Night. The team plans to roll out their presumptive Opening Night line up for Tuesday's game, which features Nick Johnson and Robinson Cano in the much debated two and five holes respectively. The regulars will be sticking around a bit longer in upcoming games and Joe Girardi has informed the pitchers that their performances are starting to matter.

Of course, as the starting nine goes a bit deeper into games, fewer players are required in camp. To that end, the Yankees made their first two rounds of cuts Friday and yesterday, optioning or reassigning the following players to minor league camp:

Pitchers
Wilkins Arias
Jeremy Bleich
Andrew Brackman
Wilkin De La Rosa
Grant Duff
Christian Garcia
Kei Igawa
Zach McAllister
D.J. Mitchell
Kevin Whelan

Catchers
Jose Gil
Kyle Higashioka

No major surprises here. Brackman, Garcia, and De La Rosa are the only guys on the 40 man roster and none had any realistic chance of making the team. McAllister and Bleich aren't too far off from contributing but both need more time in the minors and neither has been added to the 40 man roster yet. Arias and Mitchell definitely need more time in the minors as they have only risen as high as AA and high A respectively. Duff and Whelan are high level minor leaguers who profile as fringe-type, back of the bullpen relievers. They're no more palatable than the likes of Jonathan Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Romulo Sanchez, and others who are already on the 40 man and are longshots to make the team.

With ten fewer pitchers in camp, fewer catchers are needed. Higashioka and Gil are the low men on the organizational totem pole, so they're the first to go. Higashioka is considered a prospect and will likely be the primary catcher in low-A Charleston this year; Gil is organizational filler.

Lastly of course, there is Kei Igawa, about whom much ink and venom has been spilled. I suppose the most remarkable thing about Igawa's early cut is that he was amongst the first players to go despite the team's lack of a clear-cut second lefty for the bullpen. Given Girardi's penchant for playing match ups, I suppose this speaks volume as to how little the organization thinks of Igawa. At this point, I don't understand why the team doesn't ship him to a pitching poor NL team where he might be a useful part. Whatever they get for him - salary relief, a C-level prospect, Jamie Hoffmann's rights, a bag of BP balls - would be of more value than Igawa himself. Perhaps his early departure is a sign that the team is serious when they say they plan to carry the twelve best pitchers, regardless of role or handedness.

Programming Note

Just a heads up for those who visit regularly: There probably won't be any more posts today unless something monumental/tragic/incredibly interesting happens - and even then it won't be until after work hours. Both Matt and I have our hands tied with other obligations and although we'd love to scour the baseball-related interwebz until we find something good to write about, that isn't always an option. Hopefully we can find some time to put together a few posts over the next couple of days, but it's probably going to be a little slow around here for the rest of the week.

In the meantime, check out Joe from River Ave. Blues on the FanGraphs podcast, Ross from NYY Stadium Insider's post on the Ticketmaster scammers, or Lar from Wezen-Ball's attempt to compile the history of the batting helmet.

Now please excuse us while we get back to the grind.

Make Youk Shave (For A Good Cause)

Good morning, Fackers. Although we devote an unhealthy amount of time here to negative pursuits such as hating Kevin Youkilis, lampooning columnists in the New York papers, calling out other Yankee bloggers, terrorizing our neighbors and demanding fistfights between politicians, we'd like to think that we can still make positive contributions to society at large.

In that light, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Fackin' Youkstah is allowing his facial hair configuration for Opening Day to be determined by a vote. In order to make your opinion heard, you have to donate $1 to his charity, Hits For Kids. The choices are "Fu Manchu", "Goatee", "Mustache" and "Clean Shaven".

Obviously, the selection is quite limited. Noticeably absent are the mutton chops, chinstrap, zigzag, neckbeard, halfbeard, flamebeard, Hasidic, Wyatt Earp, Amish, Loop-de-loop, Islamic fundamentalist, and whatever it is that you would like to call this. Expand the possibilities, Youk!

Despite the limited options and our reputation as the most distinguished anti-Red Sox blog on the interwebz, we at Fack Youk have taken the initiative of donating $20 and voted for him to go clean shaven. Considering that Youk is a bona fide facial hair aficionado, we are guessing the thing he least wants to do is see all of his grittily-grown whiskers literally go down the drain.

Won't you, loyal readers, join in our quest to make the man shave? Perhaps the Red Sox will never abide by an upstanding grooming policy like the one the Yankees enforce, but we can do out part to make Youk look like a respectable member of society, even if it's just for a few days.

Half Empty Or Half Full?

Good morning, Fackers. Do you want the good news or the bad news first? This is always a tough conundrum. Do you want to hear the good stuff, only to have it tainted by the expectation of the bad? Or do you want to get the bad out of the way first and hang your hopes on the good news being able to save the day? Since neither of these items are of great import, let's start out will the positive.

Over at FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson took a look at what Phil Hughes was able to do out of the bullpen in 2009. To some extent, I think Hughes' contributions to the team were overlooked last season. Since he began the year as a starter with marginal success, his overall numbers were solid but not eye-popping (3.03 ERA, 86 IP, 1.116 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB).

However, if you look solely at his performance as a reliever, it was highly impressive. He struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings, had an ERA of 1.40 and a FIP of 1.83 in 51.1 IP. The FIP was particularly impressive considering that only 32 relievers have had a sub-2.00 FIP (minimum 40 IP) since 1990. Perhaps most surprisingly, not one of those belongs to Mariano Rivera. As Anderson acknowledges, FIP probably underrates Rivera because it can't measure his ability to induce weak contact, but Hughes' '09 campaign was impressive nonetheless.

Perhaps Hughes' ultimate destination will be the starting rotation, but there is reason to hope that he can be a real weapon out of the 'pen if that's where he ends up.

And now for the negative. As many analysts have felt the need to point out during this offseason, Dayn Perry at FOX Sports would like to remind everyone that just because Yankees won 103 games and the World Series last season, doesn't mean that they are a lock to do it again. Not exactly a bold statement, but let's take a look at Perry's points.

1. The lower baseline
2. Age

3. A brutal division

4. The vagaries of the postseason

The only one of those that needs explaining is the first. Perry cites the fact that the Yanks' Pythagorean record predicted that they would win only 95 games last year instead of 103. Of course, that still would have comfortably earned them a playoff berth. Which leads us to his final point.

If the 2001-2009 era taught you nothing else as a Yankee fan, you should be keenly aware that it's really, really hard to win a championship. The postseason isn't a total crapshoot, but the best team clearly doesn't always win. It's not to say that the Yanks were the the most worthy squad in all of those seasons, but there were probably three, four or five times that they entered October as the odds-on favorite, only to get bounced before claiming #27. Thanks to our generous sponsors at Bodog, we know that you can take the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series right now. But, that of course factors in things that not relevant on the field of play like betting volume. The real world odds are probably significantly higher.

If this was pre-2004, you might have had to remind some Yankees fans that it's far from a given that the team will repeat in 2010. Before 2008, you might have had to remind them that a postseason appearance is not a birthright. But I think anyone who is reading this blog knows better than to make those kind of assumptions in March.

Why I'm Rooting For Vazquez (Aside From The Obvious)

The fate of Javy Vazquez is certainly one of the more intriguing Yankee storylines coming into the 2010 season. We've discussed him in-depth multiple times here because he's about as polarizing a player as there is on the Yankees. In one camp, you have those who are encouraged by his record of above average performance and durability, along with his standout campaign in Atlanta in 2009. And in the other camp, you have those who cling to one half of a season that took place 5 years ago and one pitch thrown in that ALCS. Let's see where ESPN fantasy analyst Christopher Harris pitches his tent:

But the main reason I feel secure saying Vazquez won't repeat his 2009 season in 2010 is simple: I've seen this movie before. Vazquez has done this. In 2004, at age 28, Vazquez played a full season for the Yankees and did little to erase his reputation as a soft pitcher. Set free from the non-attention he enjoyed in six years as a Montreal Expo, he put together a blazing first half (10 wins, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and an All-Star Game appearance as a Yankee, then went belly-up when the pennant race got tight, posting a 6.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after the break. Plus, he famously allowed Johnny Damon's Game 7 grand slam in the Red Sox's improbable playoff comeback. (Remember ol' gutsy Vazquez relieving ol' gutsy Kevin Brown, Yanks fans?) And after posting a sub-4.00 ERA his each of his final three seasons in Montreal, Vazquez would go on to post a 4.00-plus ERA in four of his next five with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and White Sox.

Did you see the movie about Vazquez with the Braves too? Because that one came out just last year and he was pretty damn good in it. That'd be like saying "Sure Brad Pitt was great in Inglorious Basterds, but do you remember how shitty he was in Oceans Twelve!?!" And Harris even concedes that the first half of that movie was pretty good.

Apparently, pitching in New York doesn't carry real pressure until after the All-Star break. Nevermind that Vazquez might have been pitching with an injured shoulder during that stretch, let's just assume it was the pennant race that sunk him because that fits the narrative. Kind of like neglecting the fact that Kevin Brown loaded the bases for Vazquez, and blaming the whole grand slam on Javy. He can't handle the pressure of October!

I think it's also the bright lights. Vazquez has a 10.34 career playoff ERA, and in his four career playoff appearances, has never posted an ERA better than 8.68 in a single game.

Single game ERAs? Four postseason appearances? Are you familiar with the concept of statistical significance, WriterBoy? How about confirmation bias?

Sure he was terrific in Atlanta, where it's mostly Bobby Cox's close friends and relatives watching home games.

Atlanta drew an average of 29,304 fans per game last year. Bobby Cox must have a huge family.

I'm not going to go through the process of explaining why it's foolish to predict how someone will perform based on the intangible pressures for playing for once franchise or another, because I've already done that. There are people who buy into rational analysis and people who just want to think with their gut.

Unfortunately, there will be never be a shortage of those who insist on labeling Vazquez as "soft" and take smug joy in predicting that he won't be able to perform in New York based on 14 starts and one pitch 5 full seasons ago. Because of that, he's one guy in particular that I'd love to see prove his doubters wrong. Not only for the benefit of the Yankees, but for the principles of objective analysis.

Morning Linkaround

Good morning, Fackers. Here are some items of interest while we wait for the all-important World Series rematch at 1:00.

I don't care if they're both from the northeastern part of Cincinnati, I don't like the fact that Paul O'Neill is giving Kevin Youkilis advice. However, the suggestion was for Youk not to start hitting until February 1st, so if he gets off to a cold start this season, maybe we owe Paulie one.

Our favorite lawyer-turned-blogger uses some of his legal expertise to talk about Governor Paterson's illegal acceptance of free World Series tickets from the Yankees. You can find a more in-depth conversation if you scroll through this thread as well.

Bobby Abreu finally sold his Condo on East 58th Street for $5.1M. El Como Dulce and his agent were initially reluctant to take a loss on the property, but the market for apartments in New York City that covered limited square footage in buildings over 35 years old had been on the decline.

Cliff Corcoran at Bronx Banter writes about a topic that we're all pretty sick of, but somehow finds a way to make it interesting. That's the mark of a good analyst who is also a good writer, folks.

Over at River Ave. Blues, Daniel R. Levitt authored a guest post about how the economics of the Great Depression changed baseball and gave the Yankees a competitive advantage. Before the late 1920's, a Major League team could only control players on their 40 man rosters, meaning their Major League 25 man and 15 minor leaguers. But Minor Leauge teams, hurting for capital, asked the Big League clubs for help. In return, the MLB teams demanded greater control of the players. Additionally, unlike the Steinbrenners now, Col. Jacob Ruppert had his brewing business to fall back on and the repeal of Prohibition gave him a steady stream of income that most other owners didn't have.

NoMaas interviewed Brett Gardner. Topics include Gardner's thumb, the departure of Melky Cabrera, bunting, his contact rate, sweet tea and stealing first base.

Chad Jennings continued his "5 Questions" series with hero of yesterdays game, Colin Curtis.

Marc Carig asked Bernie Williams how much he thinks about the Hall of Fame and the fact that other people around the league were using steroids when Bernie was ostensibly clean.

Joe Posnanski + FanGraphs = Really Interesting Stuff

Dave Cameron compared Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixiera and found that they are pretty similar players. However, Cameron also adds that A-Gone probably shouldn't hold his breath for 8 year and $180M with the Yankees out of the bidding.

Orel Hershiser is taking the place of Steve Phillips in the Sunday Night Baseball booth. Thank you, Brooke Hundley!

Tyler Kepner caught up with the one guy who didn't give Joe Mauer his first place vote for MVP. Keizo Konishi says that he voted for Miguel Cabrera because:

"If I took Cabrera out of the Tigers’ lineup, I thought it would be a very different team. If I did the same thing for the Twins, if I picked Mauer out of their lineup, they would still have a better lineup compared to the Tigers".

He also cited the fact that Cabrera's team went further into the World Baseball Classic (not a joke).

And finally, can you guess where this quote come from?

Poor Kevin Kernan. His suggestion here brought cause for some of the usual FJM Wannabes in the Yankees blogosphere to emerge from their ivory towers – constructed out of their alleged righteousness – gunning for him with torches and pitchforks.

Oh yes, poor Kevin Kernan. Can't a newspaper guy just mail in a hacky column without someone calling him out for it anymore? What happened to the good old days when sports writers didn't have to use fancy things like "numbers" or "logic" and you could just spout off racial stereotypes without consequence?

Ever To Excel

I've never been shy about dropping references to my alma mater here, whether it's been talking about the Beanpot, recapping their outdoor hockey game at Fenway, or making passing references to their football team all fall. I realize that, with the exception of Joe, it's of little to no interest to the vast majority of the Fackers, but I appreciate your humoring me, or at least ignoring it politely.

But today Fackers, today is a day where you all should rally behind Boston College. At 6:00, BC will play their annual exhibition game against the Red Sox. You may not care about BC, but I know that there's no love for the Sox in these parts.

The Eagles have little chance against the Sox. They've never beaten them, and about the best things got was three years ago when Johnny Ayers, who was also the punter on the football team, led off the game with a double off Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first Red Sox appearance.

But the BC baseball program has gained a higher profile in recent years. Catcher Tony Sanchez was the fourth overall pick in last year's draft; pitcher Mike Belfiore was a supplemental first round pick, and two other Eagles were selected in the later rounds. Last year's team qualified for the College World Series for the first time in forty two years and battled national power house Texas for seven hours and twenty five innings before losing the longest game in collegiate history. It's a long shot, but if Manatee Junior College could beat the Pirates last year, maybe there's hope for the Eagles tonight.

For the Sox, former Twin Boof Bonser gets the start after missing all of 2009 with a shoulder injury. I had hoped the Yankees would kick the tires on Bonser when the Twins DFA'd him in the offseason. Not because he's any good - he's not really - but because he sports the same nickname that's followed me for more than fifteen years. I briefly had visions of me getting a player t-shirt with my nickname on the back without looking like a total loser in the process, but it's just not in the cards. To make matters worse he's gone to the worst possible team. So that's it for you Boof: you're dead to me now.

Game starts at six and will air on NESN. To get your school spirit going for tonight here are the Dropkick Murphy's with the BC fight song.