Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Booing Vazquez

Good morning, Fackers. As I'm sure you know by now, Matt and I are unabashed Javier Vazquez supporters. We spent several posts this offseason discussing whether or not his reputation as someone who is not clutch is deserved and during Spring Training, I explained why I was rooting for for Javy to do well this season. Matt wrote the previews for both of his starts this year and in yesterday's, he said:
Yet as Javier Vazquez returns to the Bronx, makes his first home start of 2010, and tries to re-establish a home in New York, I fear he may be facing a higher degree of difficulty than most, particularly in light of those who saw what they expected to see in his first start. I hope that these fans, who are so often told they're the best in the world, don't prove my fears to be well founded.
Of course those fears came to fruition when Vazquez had a poor outing - which was exacerbated by the fact that Joel Pineiro had an excellent one - and a vocal minority of fans decided to boo him. It's not surprising, but the fact that we were expecting it doesn't diminish the ridiculousness of it.

Everyone has a right to voice their displeasure if they want to, but the right to do something doesn't absolve you from being wrong for doing it. Just ask this guy.

Although the type of people who root against their own players are probably not the same ones who read a lot of baseball blogs, I'm glad that Craig Calcaterra noticed the "classless, ignorant" reaction to Vazquez's outing and wrote a short post at NBC about it:
These boos are almost certainly a function of people thinking back to 2004, which is amazingly weak given that, you know, the team just won the World Series five months ago. For a fan base that fancies itself so much more knowledgeable than anyone else's, this was pretty bad.
Obviously there are painful memories of Vazquez that none of us have completely forgotten, but as Craig points out, the Yanks just won the fucking World Series. All grudges concerning 2004 should have been erased by now. I'm not sure it's about "knowledge" so much as arrogance and entitlement, that are the issues at hand though.

A lot of New Yorkers (rightfully) believe that it's the best city in the world, which isn't exactly a controversial point, but it tends to taint the way that some of them follow their sports teams. Success and failure are magnified through the lens of the Big Apple to the point that the city becomes the reason for every poor performance that happens in it, which of course, is bullshit. These are the same people who take it upon themselves to determine who "belongs here" or "can handle it". They feel like they are a part of the city and telling themselves that not everyone can "make it here" as Sinatra said, grants them an added feeling of supremacy.

Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily thinks that the expectations for Javier Vazquez are too high, but I actually believe the opposite to be the case. I think the jerkoffs who booed Vazquez as soon as he gave up runs in the third inning were fully expecting him to fail and pounced on the first opportunity to display their disgust. Obviously we saw the same thing happen with A-Rod in Octobers past as his postseason struggles began to snowball. We even witnessed it in the beginning of last year when Mark Teixeira got of to a slow start and the home fans got restless.

To his credit, Vazquez is keeping his head up and saying the right things ("I feel like it's unfair because that was so long ago"), but I'm still ashamed that people I share a rooting interest with fans would treat someone who is vital to the team with such derision the first chance they got. Clearly they don't think he's cut out to play in New York, but apparently haven't figured out that booing the guy is just going to put more pressure on him.

Michael Kay and John Sterling both love to tell us that Yankee fans are "the best in the world", but that's only true when things are going well. As Neyer says, passion cuts both ways. When it turns sour (or in this case, before it even has a chance to), there is a contingent of Yanks fans who can be some of the absolute worst.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Why I'm Rooting For Vazquez (Aside From The Obvious)

The fate of Javy Vazquez is certainly one of the more intriguing Yankee storylines coming into the 2010 season. We've discussed him in-depth multiple times here because he's about as polarizing a player as there is on the Yankees. In one camp, you have those who are encouraged by his record of above average performance and durability, along with his standout campaign in Atlanta in 2009. And in the other camp, you have those who cling to one half of a season that took place 5 years ago and one pitch thrown in that ALCS. Let's see where ESPN fantasy analyst Christopher Harris pitches his tent:
But the main reason I feel secure saying Vazquez won't repeat his 2009 season in 2010 is simple: I've seen this movie before. Vazquez has done this. In 2004, at age 28, Vazquez played a full season for the Yankees and did little to erase his reputation as a soft pitcher. Set free from the non-attention he enjoyed in six years as a Montreal Expo, he put together a blazing first half (10 wins, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and an All-Star Game appearance as a Yankee, then went belly-up when the pennant race got tight, posting a 6.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after the break. Plus, he famously allowed Johnny Damon's Game 7 grand slam in the Red Sox's improbable playoff comeback. (Remember ol' gutsy Vazquez relieving ol' gutsy Kevin Brown, Yanks fans?) And after posting a sub-4.00 ERA his each of his final three seasons in Montreal, Vazquez would go on to post a 4.00-plus ERA in four of his next five with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and White Sox.
Did you see the movie about Vazquez with the Braves too? Because that one came out just last year and he was pretty damn good in it. That'd be like saying "Sure Brad Pitt was great in Inglorious Basterds, but do you remember how shitty he was in Oceans Twelve!?!" And Harris even concedes that the first half of that movie was pretty good.

Apparently, pitching in New York doesn't carry real pressure until after the All-Star break. Nevermind that Vazquez might have been pitching with an injured shoulder during that stretch, let's just assume it was the pennant race that sunk him because that fits the narrative. Kind of like neglecting the fact that Kevin Brown loaded the bases for Vazquez, and blaming the whole grand slam on Javy. He can't handle the pressure of October!
I think it's also the bright lights. Vazquez has a 10.34 career playoff ERA, and in his four career playoff appearances, has never posted an ERA better than 8.68 in a single game.
Single game ERAs? Four postseason appearances? Are you familiar with the concept of statistical significance, WriterBoy? How about confirmation bias?
Sure he was terrific in Atlanta, where it's mostly Bobby Cox's close friends and relatives watching home games.
Atlanta drew an average of 29,304 fans per game last year. Bobby Cox must have a huge family.

I'm not going to go through the process of explaining why it's foolish to predict how someone will perform based on the intangible pressures for playing for once franchise or another, because I've already done that. There are people who buy into rational analysis and people who just want to think with their gut.

Unfortunately, there will be never be a shortage of those who insist on labeling Vazquez as "soft" and take smug joy in predicting that he won't be able to perform in New York based on 14 starts and one pitch 5 full seasons ago. Because of that, he's one guy in particular that I'd love to see prove his doubters wrong. Not only for the benefit of the Yankees, but for the principles of objective analysis.