New AJ, Same As The Old AJ

Back on April 30th, A.J. Burnett was sporting a nifty 2.43 ERA and had picked up three wins in his first five starts. After a dominant outing against the Orioles he talked about learning to pitch to contact, so we asked if he had altered his approach:

Traditionally a guy with a propensity to both strikeout and walk a lot of batters, A.J. has seen both of those rates drop to roughly 2/3 of their career norms. At the same time, he's given up more hits, is throwing slightly more strikes and is getting more outs on the ground.

About 3/4 of the pitches Burnett has thrown in 2010 have been fastballs, a proportion that he hasn't approached since his days with the Marlins.

Despite discovering his curveball somewhere along the way and tossing 7 1/3 strong innings his next time out, in his nine starts since then, Burnett's ERA is 5.50 and his record is 3-5. He's had four starts in which he's surrendered more than six runs, while in his first five outings the most he allowed in any outing was four.

A.J.'s still throwing over 70% fastballs, about 60% of all his pitches for strikes, inducing ground balls and allowing line drives at roughly the same rates (just under 50% and around 17%, respectively). So what has the difference been? Let's take a look at his rate stats:

Burnett's strikeout and walk rates have unsurprisingly returned close to his career norms and a slightly higher BABIP has led to an increase in hits per nine. But even all of those things in conjunction shouldn't cause his ERA to more than double. The real culprits (highlighted in red on the chart) are his home run and strand rates.

In 31 1/3 innings at the beginning of the season, Burnett had allowed just one long ball. In the 54 innings he's pitched since then, he's given up nine of them. To put it another way, he gave up home runs almost six times more often during his last nine starts than he did in his first five.

The league average stand rate is 72%. Burnett was very fortunate in that department early in the season but has been rather unlucky since. Of course, the fact that runners have stolen 19 bases off him and only been caught three times certainly isn't helping in that department.

Clearly, Burnett hasn't pitched as well since the beginning of May as he did before that. Home runs involve a certain amount of luck but a six-fold increase tells us that Burnett has been leaving plenty more balls out over the plate and hitters have been capitalizing on his mistakes. His strand rate has also been dragged down by all those long balls as well.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Burnett caught a lot of breaks early in April and saw his luck even out in a major way in the past month and a half. His home run rate won't stay as high as it has been and his strand rate will regress towards league average as the season continues. If you look at his expected FIP (based on batted ball types allowed) on FanGraphs, it's just about the same during his great stretch as it is throughout his awful one.

It's boring to say, and again this is pretty self-evident, but the true A.J. Burnett lies somewhere between the Cy Young candidate that showed up in April and the replacement level scrub that has been serving up 'tater salad since then. If he can lean just a little towards the former from here on in, he and the Yankees will be just fine.

Game 65 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

This game was pretty much the inverse of last night's. The biggest hit was an second inning triple by the center fielder and the losing pitcher gave up six runs before being yanked. Each game was close for about two-thirds of a second later on but was pretty much decided by the end of the third. The difference was that last night A.J. Burnett wasn't getting unlucky, and unlike Roy Halladay, had to be pulled from the game in the fourth.

There's no sugar coating it, Burnett was terrible last night. Just about half of his pitches were out of the strike zone - 39 of them in 3 1/3 innings, to be exact. He allowed more men to reach base (11) than he retired (10) and gave up a triple and two homers. He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with his curveball.

A.J. dug his own grave in the second inning as he walked two guys and gave up two singles before running the count to 3-1 on Shane Victorino. Since Burnett's aforementioned Uncle Charlie didn't show up, he ended up and feeding Victorino a meatball smack dab in the middle of the plate, about dinner table-height. All that was missing was a fork, some spaghetti and some spicy tomato oil and some bread to mop up after it.

The coupe de grace came during the fourth inning when Chase Utley smoked a ball down the first base line that Mark Teixeira fielded and got ready to toss to first - except Burnett wasn't there to cover the bag. The crowd erupted in a loud chorus of boos and Burnett was yanked before he had a chance to face another batter.

There were some good pitching performances last night as well. The only baserunner Boone Logan allowed in his 2 2/3 innings was an intentional walk to Jayson Werth, which was a direct result of him having to clean up A.J. Burnett's mess. Chad Gaudin was just as good, pitching perfect 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Of course, Jamie Moyer was excellent as well. He gave up only three hits and a single walk in eight innings, but two of the hits were solo homers by Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, so it doesn't look quite as dominant in the box score as it actually was. The Yanks brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the ninth against Brad Lidge but Posada struck out on a slider to end the game.

Andy Pettitte faces Kyle Kendrick tonight as the Yanks try to salvage a series victory and forget about the turd A.J. Burnett just laid.

Game 65: Slow Train Coming

I'm not sure what's more mindboggling, the fact that Jamie Moyer is still pitching in the Major Leagues at age 47 or that, ever since they've been tracking with PitchFX, his fastball has been clocked at speeds roughly between A.J. Burnett's curveball and slider.

In a lot of ways, Moyer is the inverse of what Burnett used to be. When he was with the Marlins, Burnett used to throw hard for the sake of throwing hard and lighting up the radar gun, strike a lot of guys out but also walk a ton of them too. He was a young, tall, menacing presence on the mound for a team in Southern Florida. Meanwhile, Moyer was already well over a decade into his MLB career, an average-sized and easy-going type, pitching in the opposite corner of the country, left handed, throwing in the low 80's and just trying to hit his spots.

Still, their level of performance was pretty similar. From 1999-2005, Burnett had an ERA+ of 111. Moyer? 110. They both struck out about twice as many as they walked, but Burnett was giving out four free passes per nine innings while Moyer was allowing just 2.2. Their WHIPs during that span were a very similar 1.284 and 1.258.

Before last Friday, Moyer and Burnett each had six wins and ERAs under 4.00 on the season. However, Moyer got absolutely hammered in Fenway, allowing nine runs in 1+ IP and raising his ERA a full run in the process.

Burnett hasn't exactly had a smooth go of it as of late, either. He's given up 13 runs in his past three starts against Cleveland, Toronto and Baltimore and hasn't turned in a so-called quality outing in over a month (the five shutout innings he threw in the rain-delayed affair against the Twins not withstading). After sporting an ERA under 2.00 through his first six starts, Burnett has tallied a 5.61 mark over his next seven, raising his overall tally to a much-higher-but-still-respectable 3.86. The lefty-heavy Phillies lineup - as anemic as it has been lately - isn't likely to provide much of a relief for A.J.

The same could be said for the Yankee hitters in relation to Moyer. The Bombers tagged Roy Halladay for three homers and six runs last night but are going to be seeing a wildly different look from the crafty lefty on the hill this evening. Look out boys, the slow (and slower) train is coming.

They say loose your inhibitions, follow your own ambitions
They talk about a life of brotherly love,

show me someone who knows how to live it,
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

[Song Notes: Matt here with the song notes. "Slow Train Coming" is a Bob Dylan song, and was the title track to his controversial 1979 album of the same name. The album was Dylan's first release since announcing his conversion as a Born Again Christian, and most of the songs on the album have some element of spirituality to them. The above performance comes from the North Mississippi Allstars at the 2007 Newport Folk Festival.

As Jay detailed last year, it was at Newport where Dylan became embroiled in the first major controversy of his career, as he played his notorious first electric set at the 1965 Festival. The 2007 Festival was also distinctively un-folk, as the NMA set was sandwiched after the John Butler Trio, and before Gov't Mule and the Allman Brothers Band. Perhaps as a nod to the non-traditional line up that year, but certainly as a nod to Dylan, NMA wove a mini-Dylan set into their performance that day, playing Dylan's "Masters of War", "Oxford Town", and "Slow Train Coming"

I was at that show, and if I recall correctly, I was standing just to the right of the guy filming it (and no, I am not of the shirtless hippy dancers in the video). This was the second of seven NMA shows I saw in a ten day period that summer, and it was a very cool trip. Newport was great - right on the water, excellent views, a great line up. That was also the day Alex Rodriguez hit his 500th career HR.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: A-Rod comin', yo. After five games out of the lineup, A-Rod's groin or thigh or whatever injury has apparently healed up enough for him to return. He'll be eased back into action with an appearance at DH as Jorge Posada tries catching after being removed a bit early from Sunday's game. Kevin Russo is playing third base and hitting eighth but this is the closest the Yanks line up has been to Opening Day form in quite some time.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Kevin Russo 3B
Brett Gardner LF

Phillies:

Victorino CF
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Werth RF
Ibanez LF

Dobbs, DH
Schneider C
Valdez SS

The Merits Of A Pitcher's Stats Against One Team

Mike from The Yankeeist has some strong words for the way media built up the return of Roy Halladay last night:

The problem wasn't the hype itself, but how it was justified. There should be pregame excitement anytime the Yankees face a pitcher who is having the kind of season Doc is having. But the game was sold to fans on the basis of Halladay's career numbers against the Yankees. This kind of sloppy journalism is prevalent in the baseball media, and should be criticized.

I think not citing Halladay's career numbers would have been a far more egregious error. It's a valid storyline. He'd pitched more than a full season's worth against the Yankees in his career and had great results. How do you not bring that up?

Of course, as Mike goes on to explain, even though Doc had thrown a ton of innings to the Yanks, the numbers he compiled don't really mean anything:

The baseball media frequently cites a player's career performance against a given team to provide insight into how that player should do right now against that same team. This makes no sense. Sticking with the current example, Roy Halladay has been logging time in the AL East since 1998. How, exactly, do his numbers against Scott Brosius or Jason Giambi help understand what he can be expected to do when he faces the Yankees in 2010? The answer, of course, is that they can't, but baseball struggles to grasp this.

In addition to the Yankee lineup fluctuating, the defense behind Halladay has constantly shifted, the turf underneath him in Toronto has changed, he's thrown to tons of different catchers and most importantly, he's evolved as a pitcher. Essentially, what you are looking at when you try to analyze Halladay's career stats against the Yankees (or any pitcher's line against a certain team) are a bunch of very small samples, recorded over a very long time, and smushed together to look like one big one. And, by the way, looking at his career numbers against the Yankees tells you the same thing that looking at his overall numbers tell you - Roy Halladay is like, really awesome at pitching.

But there's two parts to this - the validity of the stats and how they are being used. Mike calls it "sloppy journalism", but that strikes me as a sort of hollow, straw man argument. Its' not like it's factually incorrect. Halladay has owned the Yankees and you can bet that the players in the clubhouse are keenly aware of it. Why then shouldn't the media talk about it? It doesn't have predictive value, but no one I care to read was trying to predict what the outcome of the game would be anyway. It was one of things that was ubiquitously noted because, well, it was worth noting.

Did anyone guarantee that Halladay was going to turn in a great game? I'm not aware of such a proclamation. I think most Yankee fans sort of braced for impact (like Mike's co-author at the Yankeeist, Larry did) simply because after seeing it happen so many times, it's a natural reaction.

So why do we fans have the desire read about games before they happen? Why do we bother to write a preview for all 162 of them here? It's rare that something your read beforehand will manifest itself in the game in a meaningful way, isn't it?

In general, we are all probably a little anxious for the game to start and reading about it helps pass the time. We love the team and find that harnessing some of that anticipation and reading up on an impending game helps us look forward to it.

More specifically, when I write a preview or read one that someone else has written, it's because I want to have an understanding of any trends and storylines coming in and try to develop some sort of a framework that will make what's unfolding on the field a little more coherent and interesting to me. Some of those things might be statistical, but the personalities and rivalries and the who-owns-who are compelling in their own way, even if they don't pass the statistical smell test.

Game 64 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

On an ordinary night against Roy Halladay, the rough patch that CC Sabathia hit in the fourth might have been enough to put the Yankees behind for the rest of the night.

The Big Fella had allowed only one walk and struck out six the first time through the order but things started going awry when Chase Utley chopped one right back over Sabathia's head that he could only deflect with his pitching hand out of reflex (he seems to do this more often than most pitchers, no?). Placido Polanco then looped a soft flare up the middle just out of CC's reach, Ryan Howard got hit with a 1-2 pitch and the Phillies were in business - bases loaded with no one out. Jayson Werth poked the first pitch he saw through the left side to get the Phillies on the board. Raul Ibanez fell behind 0-2 before fighting back bring the count full and ground one to right field to give the Phils their second run.

With the bases still loaded, Ben Francisco grounded a ball softly to Mark Teixeira in what looked like enough time for Teix to come home with the throw and get the force out. Instead, he went to second base apparently looking to start a double play but Sabathia didn't make it to first to cover, seemingly surprised that Teix didn't try to stop the runner from scoring. That third run was all the Phillies would get across in the game or the inning as CC struck out Juan Castro and Carlo Ruiz grounded out to end the threat.

On many nights, three runs seems like an impossible task against Halladay. Fortunately, the Yanks offense had already spotted Sabathia five in the first three innings. Brett Garnder slashed a two run triple in the second and Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher both took Doc deep in the third. Mark Teixeira also went yard in the fifth on a sky high pop up that kept carrying towards the right field foul pole and snuck out right by the camera stand.

Halladay had allowed just three home runs all year long and the Yankees doubled that total in a span of three innings. It's not like he was just throwing meatballs - the pitch Granderson went deep on was well down and in - but he left an inordinate number of fastballs over the middle of the plate. His typical movement just wasn't there and the Yanks went to town. Due in part to a 29 pitch second inning, Halladay was at 100 through six innings and that was it.

The Yanks were lucky to catch a great pitcher on an off night and if it wasn't for some tough breaks for CC in the fourth, this one never would have been in doubt. The Yanks look to keep the ball rolling tonight as the significantly less intimidating Jamie Moyer squares up against A.J. Burnett.

Game 64: I Don't Need No Doctor

When the Yankees and Phillies opened last year's World Series at Yankee Stadium, the pitching match up featured both clubs' aces, as CC Sabathia faced Cliff Lee. If you were to believe the rumors leading up to last year's trade deadline however, there was a good chance that Doc Halladay would have been the Game One pitcher for one of those two teams.

On July 7th last year, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal floated a weather balloon about the Blue Jays shopping Roy Halladay, and the rumor mill instantaneously kicked into overdrive. Almost immediately the defending champion Phillies were pegged as the most likely landing spot, with the Yankees considered another strong match. As the July 31st deadline approached the Phillies continually balked at Toronto's asking price and instead moved to Plan B, scoring Cliff Lee from the Indians for a lesser package. Meanwhile, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox blinked in a divisional game of chicken, and Halladay woke up on August 1st as Toronto property.

Toronto G.M. J.P. Ricciardi probably overplayed his hand in hanging onto Halladay. When he was dismissed following the season, Alex Anthopoulos took over and he immediately began shopping the Blue Jays' most valuable asset. On December 16th, Anthopoulos unloaded Doc, sending him to Philadelphia in a complex and confusing four team trade that netted Toronto virtually the same package Philadelphia had refused to move five months earlier. As part of the deal, Philly shipped Lee to Seattle.

So while Doc Halladay will take Lee's place in opposing Sabathia in tonight's interleague series opener, Lee once again finds himself sitting atop the auction block. He's been outstanding after spending the first month of the season on the DL, and with Seattle sporting the Majors' third worst record and Lee being a free agent at season's end, he's assured to be traded for the third time in a year by the time the July 31st deadline rolls around.

Predictably, the Yankees are once rumored as a prime landing spot for the prize of the trade market. And it just doesn't add up to me. Last year, there was a demonstrable need for a pitcher like Roy Halladay. Joba Chamberlain was struggling and facing an innings cap. Chien-Ming Wang was ineffective and out for the season following shoulder surgery. Sergio Mitre was plain ineffective. And even at that, the Yankees found the price for a year and two months of Roy Halladay to be too steep.

The Yankees are facing no such issues right now. Their starting rotation is arguably the best in baseball. Yes Javier Vazquez struggled early on, and yes Phil Hughes will face some innings restrictions later this year (albeit less restrictive than Chamberlain's last year), but one through five I'll take my chances with the current rotation. So why would the Yankees surrender a similar package now when the need is much less and when the target in question is under contract for only three months more?

Cliff Lee is amongst the game's best pitchers and he'll make a fine prize for someone by the end of July. While numerous Yankee fans have been salivating over his impending free agency since before this season even began, there just isn't the need for him now nor the justification for paying the likely asking price. The Yankees decided they didn't need Doc at last year's deadline, and they passed on him again when he was up for bid in the off-season. I'm hopeful they'll repeat that decision when it comes to Cliff Lee at this year's deadline. The Yankees know what's ailing them, and at present, it's not starting pitching.

I don't need no doctor
'Cause I know what's ailing me
I don't need no doctor, no, no
'Cause I know what's ailing me

[Song Notes: Originally recorded by Ray Charles, performances of this song by Charles are hard to come by, as we found when I tried to use it in a post about David Robertson last year. The version here comes from Humble Pie, the band with which Peter Frampton first rose to prominence. This performance comes from 1971, shortly after Frampton left the band. It's been covered by several other artists through the years, including blog favorite Gov't Mule, who began using it as a coda to another Humble Pie tune, "30 Days in the Hole".

It was also recorded by John Scofield on That's What I Say, his 2005 tribute album to Charles. I would have used a Scofield version here, which is very true to the original, except the Sco version prominently features John Mayer and I just couldn't bring myself to embed that here].

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Alex Rodriguez is once again out of the lineup, but is available to pinch hit and figures to return tomorrow. Jorge Posada returns to DHing after catching Sunday. Sergio Mitre has been placed on the DL with an oblique injury; Boone Logan has been recalled.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 3B

LHP CC Sabathia

Phillies:

Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Placido Polanco 3B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Ben Francisco DH
Juan Castro DH
Carlos Ruiz C

Past World Series Rematches

2010 marks the fourteenth season of interleague play, and the seventh time in those fourteen years that the Yankees are the reigning American League champions. When the Yankees and Phillies start their three game interleague series tonight, it'll be the fifth time in those seven years that the Yankees face their opponent from the previous Fall Classic.

In 1997, the inaugural year of interleague play, the Yankees hosted Atlanta from June 30th through July 2nd. Just as they had in the previous year's World Series, the Braves took two of the three games played in the Bronx. All three games were pitchers' duels, with the Braves taking games two and three with scores of 3-1 and 2-0 respectively, while the lone Yankee win was a ten inning 1-0 victory in the opener.

Three years later the two clubs met in Atlanta, in a rematch of the 1999 World Series. This time the Yanks took the series, winning two of the three games. This series was far more offensive than the 1997 rematch, as each of the three games matched or exceeded the seven total runs from '97 series. The Yanks took the opener 5-2, dropped the middle 7-11, and took the rubber match 7-6.

The six Subway Series games between the Yankees and Mets in 2001 were one more than number of games the teams played in the 2000 World Series. The Yankees took the first two at Shea in mid-June before dropping the series finale. Two and half weeks later, they met again at Yankee Stadium. Once again the Yanks took the opener, then dropped the middle game, before winning the series finale.

2002 was the last time the Yankees played an interleague series against the previous year's World Series opponent, as they hosted the Diamondbacks from June 10th through 12th. In the series opener, New York did what they couldn't do the previous fall: beat Randy Johnson. The Big Unit surrendered five runs through seven and two thirds, two of them coming on the home run hit by Marcus Thames in his first Major League at bat. The Yankees won again the following day, behind the pitching of David Wells, who had walked away from a handshake deal with the Snakes to rejoin the Yankees the previous off-season. The Dbacks avoided the sweep in the finale, as Byung-Hun Kim exacted some measure of redemption, pitching two scoreless innings for the save and fanning Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, and Jorge Posada in working a flawless eighth inning.

Over those four years, the Yankees went 9-6 in interleague World Series rematches, scoring 65 runs and allowing 62. They dropped two of three to Philadelphia in an interleague series last Memorial Day weekend, but are 11-10 overall against Philly in seven interleague series.

Leftover Weekend Notes

Good morning Fackers. We're easing our way out of the weekend and yesterday's off day, with a World Series rematch against the Phillies looming tonight. Before we turn our focus to that, we'd be remiss if we didn't point out a few items from the weekend series where the Yankees swept up after Astro like they were Rosie the Robot:

On Friday, Andy Pettitte became just the third pitcher in Yankee history to record two hundred wins. Yes, wins aren't a very good means of measuring a pitcher's effectiveness, but for Pettitte to join elite company in the franchise's storied history is noteworthy. Pettitte has been flirting with retirement for the past four off-seasons. Even if he finishes 2010 pitching as well as he has thus far, he's still a good season plus away from catching Red Ruffing (231) and Whitey Ford (236). If he had never left for Houston he'd likely already hold the record.

As Jay mentioned yesterday, Jorge Posada hit grand slams on Saturday and Sunday. He now has 251 career home runs, pushing him past Graig Nettles (250) for seventh place on the Yankees' all-time list. Next up is Bernie Williams (287), but A-Rod is lurking just five behind Posada.

Derek Jeter's leadoff home run on Saturday broke Rickey Henderson's club record for career leadoff home runs.

Marcus Thames injured his hamstring Saturday and was placed on the DL. Chad Huffman was recalled to take his roster spot. Huffman made his Major League debut Sunday, legged out an infield single in his first at bat, and later reached on a walk and a dropped third strike.

Former Yankee Oscar Azocar passed away yesterday at age 45 in his native Venezuela. Azocar was one of several young players the Yankees brought up during their last place season in 1990. He wasn't particularly good, but much like Francisco Cervelli, he had an enthusiastic style play that endeared him to fans and to Phil Rizzuto. Azocar frequently sprinted from his post in left field to back up third base on plays where he was otherwise uninvolved. A free swinger, Azocar walked just twice in 218 plate appearances that season, but he made enough contact where he only struck out 15 times. He was traded to San Diego following his rookie season and washed out of organized baseball after two years there.

Wrapping Up The Weekend

Good morning, Fackers. Hope your weekend was as relaxing as the Yanks' was. En route to a sweep of the Astros, the Bombers hardly trailed at all in three games - only in the early going and for just one third of an inning yesterday - and that latter gap was promptly erased by an RBI single by Nick Swisher and left behind indefinitely by a grand slam by Jorge Posada on Saturday afternoon.

Jorgie had a eventful weekend as he added another salami yesterday, making him the first Yankee to accomplish that feat in back to back games since Billy Dickey in 1939. He also returned behind the plate yesterday for the first time since May 16th, just before being placed on the DL with a stress fracture in his foot. While he was certainly fine on offense, Posada had to give up catching duties after the eighth inning. While he initially complained of "soreness", he later claimed he was just "fatigued". The former is quite concerning, but the latter is to be expected from a 38 year old who hasn't caught a full game in almost a month. Either way, the Yankees are obviously going to be careful about how often they put him behind the plate and the upcoming day off will certainly help him get past any pain or exhaustion.

Taking a step back, now seems like an appropriate time to reflect on what we earmarked as a significant stretch of games for the Yanks.

Heading into Memorial Day Weekend, the squad was starting down a 16 game stretch against the Indians, Orioles, Blue Jays and Astros and looking up at a 4.5 game deficit in the standings. At that point, we surmised that anything better than 10-6 during the soft stretch of the schedule would have been acceptable.

It turns out that the Yankees passed the test. Even though they dropped two of three to Toronto, they ripped through the last place cupcakes at 11-2, bringing their final tally to 12-4, outscoring their opponents 103-61. It was as good of a stretch as can be reasonably expected in the MLB.

Aside from the 13 run disaster (and more specifically, seven run seventh inning) against Cleveland, the pitching was excellent, holding foes to three runs or fewer 11 times. Phil Hughes picked up four victories over that time while Javy Vazquez won three and Sabathia and Pettitte each picked up two.

Of course, as was on display yesterday, putting up almost six and a half runs per game gives starting pitchers a little more cushion in their quest to pick up victories. The Yanks cranked out just about 10 hits and five walks per game and when you put that many men on base, good things are going to happen.

Good things like multi-run home runs, for instance. Of the 18 round-trippers the Yankees hit during this run, five of them have been grand slams (two by Posada this weekend and one each by Granderson, Cano and A-Rod) and just four of them have been solo shots. To put that in perspective, the Yanks had only hit one GS coming into the Cleveland series and over half of their homers to that point were solo shots.

While the Yankees were tearing through a soft portion of their schedule, the Rays began to fall back to earth. Since April 28th, they've gone 7-8 against the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Marlins. Certainly their slate of 15 games was much more difficult, having to play Toronto twice and face teams that aren't dragging their asses across last place in the division and all, but this is the schedule evening out in the long run.

The Rays' mediocre stretch also allowed Boston to play some catch up. The Sox are sitting just four games behind the two teams at the top and any talk of how there was no way they could make the playoffs now seems pretty foolish.

With four more series of interleague play in queue for all three teams, a lot could happen in the division over the next two weeks, much of it based on a completely unbalanced schedule. The three division rivals share only one common opponent - the Diamondbacks - over that time.

Game 63: Astronomy

So far in this series, as was expected coming in, the Yankees have taken care of business. The Astros are a one of the very worst teams in baseball and anything less than a series victory would have been a serious letdown. Now that the Bombers have taken the first two games by totally different means - one tight contest with no home runs and one blowout with five of them - they look to Phil Hughes to put them in position to complete the sweep.

Phil has gone through a mildly medicore stretch (by his standards) over his last five starts, allowing 15 runs in 30.2 IP (4.40 ERA) but has still struck out a batter an inning (29) - just about five times more than he's walked (6). The difference is that he's been slightly more hittable over this stretch, surrendering 34 hits over that span as opposed to just 22 knocks in the first 39 frames he pitched this season.

Houston sends 38 year old journeyman/swingman Brian Moehler to the mound for his fourth start of the season. Between starting and relief, the junk-balling righty has allowed 22 runs in 31 1/3 innings (6.12 ERA) while giving up 46 hits striking out 13 and walking 11. Jeter, A-Rod and to a lesser extent, Posada are the only three Yanks to have faced him in somewhat significant sample sizes (from his days in Detroit over 10 years ago, most likely) and the results have all been good for our guys.

In terms of the pitching match up, the stars seem to have aligned in favor of the Yankees. Hopefully the cosmos have a sweep in store for the Bombers.

It's the nexus of the crisis,
And the origin of storms,
Just the place to hopelessly,
Encounter time, and then came meeeeee.

-Lineups-

Same deal as yesterday, both Matt and I are all sorts of tied up. You know where to find them.

Game 62 Win Expectancy Chart

[Win Expectancy data via FanGraphs]

I wasn't able to catch any of this game on TV but I did want to share this anecdote from the postgame show on the radio. Suzyn Waldman was interviewing Derek Jeter and in her typical overly-motherly, fawning way was asking him what it mean to tie Rickey Henderson atop the all-time lead off home run list and going on and on about how special it must be.

Jeter sort of laughed and said, "Well, I think it was just his record for the Yankees, and he was only here for what, two years?". It was about four year's worth of games to be precise, but the point still stands. Keep it in your pants, Suzyn.

Game 62: I'm Sorry Houston

Today's game features a match up of two pitchers who were excellent in the National League last year but are struggling to follow up on that campaign this season.

We've heard plenty about Javier Vazquez's 2009 but although Wandy Rodriguez's didn't make as many headlines, it was nearly as good. He pitched 205 innings to an ERA of 3.02 and won 14. Wandy's peripheral numbers didn't compare as Vazquez's (3.06 K/BB, 3.54 FIP vs. 5.41, 2.77) but they were still plenty solid. This year, those same numbers have dipped to 1.84 and 4.01 respectively for Rodirguez and thanks to an even more dismal offense behind him, has lost eight times in 12 starts.

I'm sorry Houston, but hopefully the ninth will come today.

You ain't givin' up on lookin' for your thing,
even if you probably should.
I'm sorry Huston. I ain't got what you need
but I promise you I'd help you if I could.

[Song Notes: This is the Drive-By Truckers, from an in-store appearance in Greenville, SC just over two years ago. It features bassist Shonna Tucker on vocals.]

-Lineups-

Not today, as we are mailing it in. You know where to find them.

Game 61: Recap

The Yanks got to Brett Myers for three runs in the first inning and that was nearly enough to carry them to the finish line.

Andy Pettitte ran into some trouble in the top of the second and allowed a two runs on a double to Tommy Manzella but both pitchers found their respective grooves over the middle innings and only four runners reached base on either team between the tops of the second and eighth.

Derek Jeter booted an easy double play ball in the bottom half of the eighth that would have put Andy Pettitte just one out away from handing the ball to Mariano Rivera, but instead put the tying runs on base with no one out. After a bunt by Micheal Bourne that moved both the runners into scoring position, Joe Girardi called on Joba Chamberlain to preserve the lead. Jeff Keppinger drove in a run on a sac fly but Joba struck out Lanke Berkman on a questionable check swing call to escape with a one run advantage.

Rivera nailed down a perfect ninth and Andy Pettitte secured his 200th win as a Yankee against the only other team he's recorded a victory for. The squads next square off in Saturday afternoon match up between Javier Vazquez and Wandy Rodriguez.