Afternoon Videos And Links

There's probably going to be more links than usual this week simply because it's probably better to find the best of other people's work than force ourselves to write something shitty, so here's what we've got for you this afternoon:

- You've gotta click through for this one, but you can see Joe Girardi and William Rhoden of the New York Times talking about the similarities between the strategies of playing chess and managing a baseball team (hint: there aren't that many). I don't really know what to take from this, but they play a game of speed chess on the field at Yankee Stadium with Rhianna blaring in the background and Girardi mistakenly thinks you get 5 mintues for every move.

- Below, Rick Peterson breaks down the Yankees top three starters' pitch repertoires (not that interesting). But at the 3:00 mark talks some "biomechanics" and gets into the nuts and bolts of the pitching motion at a depth that you won't find anywhere this side of Baseball Intellect. (via Jason)

- Sticking some some pitching specifics, Mike from RAB takes a comprehensive look at Phil Hughes' use of his curveball throughout the season and lack thereof in the ALDS.

- Joel Sherman isn't the first person to speculate about Joba Chamberlain taking Phil Hughes' place in the 8th inning when the ALCS rolls around, but he's probably the most respected. Here's the main problem with that theory: Joba wasn't great in the ALDS either, he just got pulled before he could do any damage. Hughes is still far and away the better option.

- Yesterday, Sherman said that the Yankees, using their own defensive metrics, believed that they improved defensively at every position besides left field and catcher from 2008. Today, Beyond the Box score busted out one of their fancy new UZR visualizations for the Yankees and despite those supposed gains, it still doesn't look too pretty.

- Emma Span from Bronx Banter was on Jeopardy last night. I didn't read that post yet because I DVR'd but haven't watched the episode. So don't ruin it for me if you have, thanks.

- The Arizona Fall League is underway and Pending Pinstripes runs down the top prospects playing out West including Ian Kennedy, Mike Dunn, Austin Romine and Zach Kroenke.

Run Differentials, Luck, And Correcting Statistical Improbabilities

Yesterday, Jay detailed some of the reasons why he wasn't too keen on the possibility of facing the Red Sox in the ALCS. I had reasons of my own for not wanting that match up. Aside from the way that the local and national media would beat the story into the ground, and the usual onslaught of rarely entertaining and often unintelligent anonymous comments we'd see here, I had a more rational concern about facing Boston.

Back in June, as the Yankees entered their third series of the season against the Sox at 0-5, we wrote a series of previews about how the Yankees were due for a win. The Yankees came up empty in that set as well, falling to 0-8 against Boston in 2009. While some of the aforementioned anonymous commenters took that as an opportunity to have some fun at our expense, I still took some solace in the fact that if the Yankees and Red Sox were truly evenly matched teams - as I thought they were - then the odds were in favor of them having a nice turnaround over the remainder of the season series.

Sure enough, over the next two months the Yankees finally put to rest the issues that intermittently beset them during the early portions of the season. When they met the Sox again in early August, we knew the Yanks were still due, and it started a 8-1 head-to-head run to finish the season series at 9-9, with 101 runs scored and 99 runs allowed. In short, the two teams were about as dead even as possible, meaning were they to meet again, probability would favor neither. It would be starting from square one, only this time it would be decided over a relatively short best of seven series rather than eighteen games. There wouldn't be enough opportunity this time for short term statistical improbabilities to correct themselves over the long term.

Yet probability doesn't always win out. In stark contrast to the universe evening out in the season series between the Yankees and Red Sox, is the absurdly good fortune that smiled upon the Yankees in their ten meetings with the Twins this year.

The Yankees and Twins began their season series in mid-May with a four game wraparound series. The Yankees had already amassed two of their fifteen regular season walkoff wins, but it was during this series that the walkoff win started to become a hallmark of the 2009 season. In the series opener, Brett Gardner delivered an inside-the-park home run, and Melky delivered his second walkoff hit of the season, giving the Yanks a one run win. On Saturday, in just his eighth game of the season and his second at the new Yankee Stadium, Alex Rodriguez delivered his second big home run of the season. This time it was an extra inning walkoff, giving the Yankees a two run victory and making A-Rod the first Yankee to get pied on the season. On Sunday, Johnny Damon delivered an extra inning walkoff HR of his own, the third straight Yankee walkoff in the series, for another one run victory. On Monday, I made my debut at Fack Youk in the morning, shot down to the Stadium for the game, and watched the Yankees squeak out another one run win, this time without the drama of a walkoff. Despite a run differential of just five, the Yankees had a four game sweep for themselves.

The two teams met again in the Metrodome following Fourth of July Weekend. The first game would be the most lopsided affair in the season series. Behind CC Sabathia, the Yankees won by eight runs, representing 50% of the final run differential for the season series. The second game was another one run victory, and then Yankees swept the season series with a two run victory in the season finale.

All told, the Yankees went 7-0 against the Twins, with 41 runs scored and 25 runs allowed. Using the more accurate 1.83 exponent, those numbers predict a pythagorean record of 5-2. Instead they went 7-0. The Yankees swept seven from the Twins in 2003 as well, but outscored them 49 to 13 that year, predicting a pythagorean record of approximately 6.4-0.6. That is, in the same amount of games the Yankees had about 1.4 more wins of luck this year compared to that year.

That luck against the Twins continued into the ALDS of course. Not just with Phil Cuzzi's blown call, or with the baserunning gaffes from Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto, but in the numbers as well. The Yankees swept the series with a nine run differential. With only a three game sample size the numbers aren't at all reliable, but they still indicate that the Yankees got about a half win worth of luck in the series.

On a more specific level, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth Friday with just a 10.5% win expectancy. They were facing the best closer in the league that doesn't answer to "Mo". And the ever-unclutch A-Rod managed to tie it up. In the top of the eleventh, they faced a bases loaded, no one out jam, giving the Twins a run expectancy of about 2.28 runs. Instead, despite a screaming line drive off the bat of Delmon Young, they came away with none, and the Yankees walked off one more time.

Ten games. Ten wins. Five of them by a single run, two more by just two runs. An average margin of victory of just 2.5 runs; 1.9 runs removing the eight run victory in July. Four walkoff wins, three of them consecutively, the final three in extra innings. The Twins led in seven of the games, scoring first each time. Yet they didn't amass a single, solitary victory.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Twins were a relatively weak playoff team. Luck or no luck, the 2009 Yankees should take a five game series from the 2009 Twins nine times out of ten. But the Twins are still a good team, and it's highly improbable that any team, even one as good as the Yankees, should take ten straight games from them by such slim margins. That said, I'm relieved that if and when the Twins luck against the Yanks levels out, it'll be happening in the 2010 regular season rather than the 2009 post-season.

Three Dead Days (And Problems With Replay)

Good morning, Fackers. Last night Huston Street joined Ryan Franklin, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon among the club of closers who gagged games in this year's LDSes, and alongside Paps did so in a game that would have kept the series alive. Praise be to Mo.

In the process, Street allowed the Phillies to clinch their second straight berth in the NLDS, setting up a rematch of last year between the Phils and the Dodgers. This ended the first round of the playoffs in a record-tying and brutally efficient 13 games.

Not that there weren't some surprises (The Cardinals and Red Sox getting swept) and dramatic games during the Divison Series (last night's seesaw affair, Game 3 at Fenway, Games 2 & 3 of the Yanks & Twins and the Holliday game in Chavez Ravine), but now we are left with the equivalent of a second All-Star break during the span of a week and a half.

Is the answer expanding the Division Series to 7 games? Matt from Circling the Bases thinks so. I wrote a "Commissioner for a Day" post from IIATMS way back in January and this was the one change that I said I would institute. It creates some new problems with the length of the season and creates a wider variance between a 4 game sweep and a 7 game series, possibly leading to more down time for teams that sweep, but if you cut out any off days that aren't necessary for travel, it wouldn't be that much of an issue. Maybe two games would need to be played at the same time on occasion, but the additional games would create more opportunities for revenue than there were to begin with.

Anyway, as it is, there will be nearly three full blank days between the final out last night and the first pitch of the NLCS on Thursday. Even worse, the ALCS doesn't start until Friday night, giving us Yanks fans an entire work week to twiddle our thumbs and talk about things other than our favorite team participating in actual baseball games. (I suppose it could be worse. At least we're not Red Sox fans... ZING!)

One of those things that's sure to be talked about this week is instant replay. We were on top of it after Game 1 of the Red Sox series, but the topic really exploded after Phil Cuzzi's call on Friday and has been a hot button issue ever since, with more and more bad calls beginning to stack up.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal talked to Grandpa Selig and (surprise!) he doesn't want to look into expanding instant replay, citing the same dumb arguments ("the human element is vital to baseball") that have always been made but never made actual sense. (It's vital to baseball to get calls wrong?) He deemed the mistakes that took place during the Division Series "controversial", which amusingly implies that there were multiple ways in which they could have been interpreted.

Ol' Bud also had this to say with respect to replay:

We need to do a little work, clean up some things. But do I think we need more replay? No. Baseball is not the kind of game that can have interminable delays.

Once again, replay doesn't have to take forever. If you adpot a moronic red flag challenge system instead of having an additional replay umpire in every stadium or at least a consolidated replay review center somewhere, it wouldn't take that long. This isn't about time.

And despite what cranky Uncle Bud tells you, baseball is pretty much the only game that can and does have interminable delays. Sort of like the 3 (or in the Yanks and Angels' case 5) days between live action we are facing right now. Kind of like the never-ending commercial breaks on TBS. Within games, we allow pitchers to warm up indefinitely when replacing an injured player. We wait hours for storms pass and play to resume. We allow managers to use an unlimited amount pitchers in one inning. At one point during the Yanks game on Friday, there were four mound conferences in the span of six pitches. A baseball game can theoretically continue forever so long as the score remains tied because there is no clock.

You want to talk about legitimate issues with instituting replay? Here's one via Baseball Think Factory:

How the heck would replay work on fair/foul calls down either line? Sure the Mauer hit went into the stands and was a groundrule double, so its obvious where he would have ended up if the call were correct, but how often does that happen?

The same issue would apply to balls that were incorrectly deemed caught or trapped in the outfield. Would the umpires have to figure out where the runners would have ended up if the ball in fact hit the ground first? What if the ball was ruled a hit but was actually caught and one of the runners was far enough off the bag where he'd have been easily doubled up?

The cleanest way to settle it would be to give the batter first and have each runner advance one base. Or if it was actually a catch, call the batter out and have the runners return to their bases. But in the first scenario, there's still a good chance that the batter is getting screwed out of a double or possibly and RBI in the transaction. In the second, a baserunner could get away with a huge mistake. You can bet that managers are going to be out there arguing their cases and wasting our collective time if they are on the short end of either of those. We're still not "getting the call right" which is what the proponents of replay (like myself) are fighting in the name of anyway.

Unfortunately, it's not going to be as easy as having the guy upstairs simply and neatly dispose of erroneous calls after they happen. More unfortunately though, we are fans of a game in which our commissioner doesn't have the same level of insight into the game of the first poster on a comment thread discussing his quotes.

You get the feeling that if this was David Stern or Roger Goodell (each of whom hasn't been afraid to institute changes to their respective leagues - like Stern lengthening the Division Series in the NBA Playoffs), they'd be the ones pointing out the technical issues - whether it was them or someone on their staff who realized it. But it's Bud Selig, who is clinging to to the memories he has of watching Christy Mathewson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown engage in their first legendary duel at the Polo Grounds back in 1904, when he was only 35 years old. And because of the extension he gave himself, we're stuck with this asshole through 2012!

This Bud's for you! (And you and you and you...)

Closing Out The Holiday

Well, we had a little fun today, mostly at the expense of others. That's not the ideal way to go about things, but hey, we've got four days of down time to fill. We started the morning focusing on the Columbus Day Holiday, so we might as well finish the day that way too.

I can't claim this as an original idea, because I do remember seeing this somewhere on the web before, but I don't remember the exact composition of the roster. Either way, in honor of the Genoa-born Columbus, here's my all-time, all-Italian Yankee team. You'll note a couple guys have been moved to their secondary positions in order to cover the whole field:

SP: Vic Raschi
RP: Dave Righetti
C: Rick Cerone
1B: Jason Giambi
2B: Tony Lazzeri
3B: Mike Pagliarulo
SS: Phil Rizzuto
LF: Yogi Berra
CF: Joe DiMaggio
RF: Joe Pepitone
DH: Steve Balboni

Coaching Staff: Joe Torre, Billy Martin, Joe Girardi, Frank Crosetti

Of all those guys, Bye-Bye Balboni, Pags, and Rags were the only ones ever to play for the Columbus Clippers.

That's it for me paesans. I'm heading home to eat some lasagna. Enjoy your evening. Take it away Signor Prima...

The Last One To Depart The 'Dome

FOTB Simon (on Sports) spotted this gem of a picture up on the AP photo wire at Yahoo.

You probably noticed this fellow making his mad dash during the bottom of the 9th inning last night, donning a Bert Blyleven jersey and showing remarkable awareness of the situation by taking off before the possibility of a game ending double play. It was the smartest running-related decision made by someone associated with the Twins all weekend.

Amazingly, the dude made it all the way to the baggie on right field before being corralled by the army of retirees the Metrodome retains as "security".

Nice try, my Burt Blyleven-boosting, bird-blazing buddy, you almost made it.

I'm not sure what's on the other side of the hefty bag, but I think we can agree that none of the Paul Blarts chasing him down were going to apprehend him once he got over it. He may never have left the Metrodome.

K Is For Kubel

At the risk of not giving the Twins proper credit for their remarkable late season comeback, they were a relatively weak playoff team. The won baseball's poorest division, and needed an extra game to do so. Three clubs (Texas, Florida, and San Francisco) sit at home this post-season despite having better records than Minnesota. Atlanta had the same 162 game record as the Twins, while Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Cubs - three teams never even considered contenders down the stretch - all finished within three games of the Twins' 162 game record.

None of which takes away from the fact that had a couple breaks gone the other way, this series could still be going, and could be going with Twins in the driver's seat (more on that later this week). But the point is that the Twins were a weak division champion, and in this instance the Yankees actually benefited from the pointless rule that the supposedly weak Wild Card team cannot play its own Division Champion in the DS.

That said, the Twins had a razor thin margin for error heading into the series. Their starting pitching was average at best and they were playing what amounted to replacement level offensive players at as many as five spots in their line up. What the Twins had on their side was the law of averages and a short series (again more on that later), momentum (which doesn't matter nearly as much as sports writers lead us to believe), and a heart of the order that's as good as any other in the league. In order to win the series the Twins needed to catch some breaks (so much for that Phil Cuzzi), do the "little things" well (ditto Gomez and Punto), and get production from their three big bats.

They did get production from Joe Mauer (.417/.500/.500 in 14 PA) and Michael Cuddyer (.429/.429/.429 in 14 PA), but the third man in that triumvirate, Jason Kubel, was ice cold. For the series, Kubel went 1 for 14 with no walks and nine strikeouts. After fanning twice in Game One, he took the Golden Sombrero in Game Two before getting a base hit off Damaso Marte in the 11th, then followed that with a Silver Sombrero last night. Over the course of the series he went 0 for 2 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Even when he seemingly caught a break - like when Robinson Cano missed his liner in the fifth last night - bad luck caught up with him, as the ball went straight to Nick Swisher in right, allowing him to force Cuddyer, who had rightly retreated towards first, at second base.

The nature of baseball is such that one player truly can't win or lose a series on his own. Just as Alex Rodriguez wasn't solely responsible for the 2004 ALCS or the ALDS in 2005, 2006, and 2007, Jason Kubel isn't entirely at fault for the Twins getting swept. A bad three game stretch doesn't make him a post-season choke artist either. But his failure to produce in this series is a huge contributing factor to the Twins' ouster given how reliant their club was on those three middle of the order bats.

Soxenfreude: Closing The Door On 2009

There are plenty of Yankee fans out there who wanted to face the Red Sox in the ALCS this year and heading into the playoffs, it looked like there was a pretty good chance they would get their wish. It was a season that had the earmarks of a possible rematch with a season series that was constantly lopsided in one direction or the other but ultimately even. It was the first time since 2007 that both teams had made the postseason. The Yanks figured to take care of the Twins and the Sox looked to be a decent bet to knock off the Angels. And it just seemed like it was due to happen. 2004 was a long time ago, you know?

I'm not one of those fans who wanted to see the Sox. Sure, there would have been a massive dose of satisfaction resulting from an ALCS victory over them, but there would have been the same amount of agony on the line stemming from a loss. Plenty of bragging rights inherently tied to them not making it out of the first round, also. I'll take the sure thing, thanks.

Even when the Angels took a 2-0 series lead, I didn't dismiss the Sox' chances. They are simply a different team at home offensively and they'd won too many elimination games in previous years to count them out. Scott Kazmir had the most wins among active pitchers as a visiting player at Fenway but the Boston bats hung 5 runs on him by the end of the 4th inning. The Sox sat atop a 5-1 lead but since the Giants were so thoroughly destroying the Raiders over on CBS, I kept flipping back to the to TBS to check on the game and watched the Angels systematically chip away.

Juan Rivera added an RBI off of Daniel Bard in the 6th. Then Billy Wagner came in, allowed a flukey ground rule double to Bobby Abreu off of ow-ah boy Youk, walked Vlad Guerrero and after Kendry Morales moved the runners over, left men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs for Jonathan Papelbon.

Although our second least-favorite Red Sock had a lower ERA this year than last, he walked three times more batters than in 2008 leading to more baserunners and more nail-biting saves. He had lost much of his luster among Sox fans and there were whispers that the Sox were thinking of getting rid of him. Those whispers just got considerably louder.

With his first pitch of the game, Papelbon surrendered a single to Juan Rivera, cutting the Sox lead to 5-4. However, a pickoff of pinch runner Reggie Willits temporarily quelled the rally.

The Sox were able to tack on another run in the bottom of the 8th via a Mike Lowell single, but that wouldn't prove to be enough of a cushion.

Papelbon got two quick outs and with the Sox leading by two, they were microscopically close to getting back in the series. But the Angels clawed back with a single by Eric Aybar, a walk to Chone Figgins and a double by Bobby Abreu to cut the lead to 1 run. The Sox intentionally walked Torii Hunter but Vlad Guererro made them pay with a go-ahead two RBI single. Papelbon, a former hero among Red Sox Nation was booed off the mound.

The Sox went down in order in the bottom of the 9th and despite some wishful thinking by TBS's scoreboard guy, their season was over.

As my buddy Jim said afterwards, "You could hear a tear drop on Landsdowne". There was a truly disappointing lack of crowd shots after the loss, but I did manage to get this one in the bottom of the ninth.

Youk looks pretty crushed. And who's the mysterious lady???

Don't cry, Jason Bay. At least you're not a Pirate anymore.

Peace out, Papi. Don't worry, it's not your fault.

/checks series stats

//sees line of .083/.083/.083 with no RBIs

I take that back. Have a nice winter, though!

Happy Columbus Day

Good morning Fackers, and it certainly is a good morning today. In addition to the Yankees completing the sweep last night, it's Columbus Day today. Despite my limited Italian heritage, this holiday is essentially meaningless to me now since I haven't had it as a day off since I was in college a whole eight years ago (that's a depressing thought in its own right). Just be thankful I didn't lead into this holiday weekend with a Pearl Jam preview on Friday night.

Anyway, in honor of the holiday, we're naming future Yankee back up catcher Frankie Cervelli and former Yankee back up catcher Sal "Paesano" Fasano as honorary Fack Youk mayors for the day. As their first order of business, they've taken Joba Chamberlain's locker from him and pressed him into indentured servitude for the day. He was last seen preparing calzones for the mayors. The Latin American players on the team seem to think their lockers may be the next to go, though A-Rod is said to be excited that Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria could possibly be mannish looking strippers.

Like I said last night, we've got a lot of dead time to fill until Friday. Meanwhile, head on down to your local butcher's shop to get your Columbus Day eats...

Pettitte, Posada, A-Rod Key Sweep

It wasn't quite as overwrought with drama as Friday's Game Two, but the conclusion to Division Series between the Yankees and Twins was certainly an exciting, nail-biter of a game.

The game began as a fast moving pitchers' duel. For Andy Pettitte, it was like old times, as he was perfect through four and carried a shutout through five and two thirds. For Carl Pavano, it was bizarro world, as the maligned pitcher was perfect through two and two thirds, didn't allow a ball out of the infield until the fifth, took a shutout through six and a third, threw first pitch strikes to seemingly every batter, struck out nine, and walked none over the course of his evening.

Once the game finally saw some offense in the bottom of the sixth, the pace of the evening ground to a halt. As they did Friday night, the Twins did their damage with two outs, starting with a Denard Span single. As Pettitte worked to keep the speedy Span close to first base, he seemingly lost focus on Orlando Cabrera at the plate, falling behind 2-0. Span finally swiped second on a 2-1 pitch that narrowly missed being called a strike, and a pitch later Cabrera had drawn a free pass, bringing Joe Mauer to the plate. The probable AL MVP wasted no time in delivering, driving the first pitch to left field to score Span and give the Twins a 1-0 lead. Pettitte got out of the jam by striking out Michael Cuddyer, but he was none too pleased with surrendering the lead after getting two quick outs.

Just as in Games One and Two, and throughout the season series against Minnesota, the Yankees answered after falling behind. With one out and no one on, Alex Rodriguez was in an 0-2 hole, battled back to work a full count, and then delivered once again, destroying a Pavano offering deep to right field to tie the score. Two batters later Jorge Posada stepped to the plate and took a 1-0 offering the opposite way, just clearing the left field wall. Despite an outstanding pitching performance, two solitary pitches put Pavano and his Twins behind 2-1.

Staked to a lead, Andy Pettitte took the mound to start the seventh and fanned Jason Kubel yet again. Despite pitching masterfully and needing just 81 pitches (58 strikes) to get through six and third, Joe Girardi decided to turn the game over to his bullpen. Pettitte finished his night with a brilliant line: 6.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 Ks.

Girardi turned to Joba Chamberlain. After allowing a double to Delmon Young, Chamberlain left the potential tying run in scoring position, getting Brendan Harris to bounce to third and striking out Jose Morales. The Yankee bats went quietly again in the eighth, and Phil Hughes took the ball in the bottom of the inning.

With Joe Mauer due fourth in the inning and the lead still just a single run, it was a safe bet that Hughes was facing just three batters no matter what. He had another somewhat rocky outing, allowing a leadoff double to number nine hitter Nick Punto. When Denard Span followed with a bouncer up the middle, the Yankees were the beneficiaries of yet another Twins baserunning blunder.

Derek Jeter fielded the high hop on the outfield turf on the second base side of the bag. After the game Jeter said he didn't think he had a chance at the speedy Span, but as he glanced back to third base, he saw that Punto had failed to pick up his third base coach. Most likely assuming that the hopper had made it through to the outfield, Punto was attempting to score the tying run. By the time he threw on the brakes and dropped into a slide to stop himself, Jeter had astutely thrown a one hopper home to Posada, who in turn fired back to third in time to get Punto. Rather than the potential tying run on third with no one out, he was on first with one out.

Hughes got Orlando Cabrera to fly to center for the second out, and as expected, Girardi called upon Mo to face Mauer. One the second pitch of the at bat, Mo got his trademarked cutter in on Mauer's hands, shattering his bat and getting an easy hopper to Mark Teixeira to end the inning.

The Yanks added a couple insurance runs in the ninth, as four different Twins relievers walked four successive Yankee batters before Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano picked up RBI singles. Mo allowed a lead off single to Michael Cuddyer in the ninth, then struck out Kubel (again), Young, and got Harris to bounce to Jeter to end the series.

The Yankees have advanced to the ALCS for the first time in five years and won their first post-season series since beating the Twins in the 2004 ALDS. The sweep allows the Yankees to enter Friday's ALCS Game One as well rested as the Angels, and to set up their pitching staff with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte taking Games One through Three again.

Just as in the season series, this ALDS against the Twins was far closer than the ledger indicates. The Yankees caught a few breaks, but more importantly, they got the top notch starting pitching that they've so sorely missed in their recent postseason appearances. They also got big contributions from Jeter, Mo, Posada, and Pettitte, just as in the dynasty years, not to mention huge hits from Hideki Matsui and A-Rod, the other holdovers from the last Yankee squad to win a postseason series. It's going to be a slow, torturous wait until Friday, but it's far better than having to wait until April.


(Photos)

ALDS Game 3: Idle Time

When the Yankees left the field victorious exactly two weeks ago, they had just clinched the AL East and the best overall record in the American League. In doing so, they rendered the season's final six games, split by another Thursday off day, as essentially meaningless. It also gave them the right to choose which ALDS schedule they wanted to play.

When the Yankees left the field victorious exactly one week ago, they had just finished the regular season. They were off the next two days, still not knowing who their ALDS opponent would be, as the Twins and Tigers needed one extra game and three extra innings to decide the AL Central.

In order to allow themselves the option to use only three starting pitchers in the ALDS, the Yankees chose the "A" schedule. So, after playing Game One on Wednesday, the Yankees sat through the extra off day on Thursday, and then enjoyed an off day for travel yesterday following Friday night's Game Two thriller.

All of which is a long way of saying that by the time the first pitch is thrown tonight, the Yankees will have played just eight games in the last fourteen days, six of them meaningless, and just two games in the last seven days. In other words, they've had a lot of idle time on their hands of late.

Tonight it will be Idle Time of a different sort at the Metrodome. Carl Pavano, infamously dubbed the "American Idle" by The Post's George A. King III during his four injury plagued years in New York, takes the hill for the Twinkies. While no Yankee fan is fond of Pavano, we may have something of a debt of gratitude to him at present. In un-Pavano-like fashion, he asked for the ball on short rest on the season's final day. While Pavano didn't have a good start (5.2 IP, 8 H 4 ER), it was enough to keep the putrid Royals at bay, and he picked up the "W" in what was essentially a must win game for the Twins, forcing Tuesday's one game playoff and further depleting the Twins' starting staff heading in to the ALDS.

The Yankees had two shots at Pavano this year, both coming while he was still with Cleveland, and both times they failed to extract their pound of flesh. In 13.1 innings of work against the Yanks, Pavano pitched to a 2.70 ERA and allowed just 12 baserunners, but didn't record a decision. Less recently, Pavano made two appearances against the Yankees in the 2003 World Series, one start and once in relief, and allowed just one run and nine baserunners in nine innings of work. Despite his reputation of lacking in intestinal fortitude, Pavano pitched 19.1 innings in that 2003 post-season, going 2-0 while posting a 1.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Here's hoping those small trends get derailed tonight.

Opposing Pavano will be a far more experienced post-season starter, the third and final different starting pitcher the Yankees intend to use in this series. Andy Pettitte will make the 36th post-season start of his career tonight, all but four of them coming with the Yankees. He's 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in those games, but has shown a knack for coming up big in the biggest games. He's made nine post-season starts (eight with NYY) with an opportunity to end a series. In those games, Pettitte is 3-2 (his teams are 5-4), with a 4.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Subtract out his disastrous pitch-tipping start in Game 6 of the 2001 World Series, and Pettitte is 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in those games. Pettitte faced the Twins in Game 2 of 2003 ALDS. With the Yankees in an 0-1 hole, Pettitte gave up one run and allowed seven baserunners while fanning ten in seven innings of work and earning the victory.

The Yankees return to their normal line-up tonight. For the Twins, Brendan Harris replaces the injured Matt Tolbert at third base. Tolbert has been removed from the Twins' roster all together. Jason Kubel returns to RF after DHing Friday, Denard Span slides back to center, Carlos Gomez goes back to the bench, and Jose Morales enters the line up as the DH.

When the Yankees left Minnesota in July, we bid a premature adieu to the Metrodome. The Twins were a .500 team following that Yankee sweep, and were four games back in the AL Central with a little less than half the season to play. The Twins certainly weren't out of it at that point, but it did take a historically unlikely late season comeback for them to reach the post-season. They now return home with their backs to the wall. While the Metrodome has been lauded as one of the biggest homefield advantages in all of baseball, the Twins have lost seven straight post-season games there, four of them against the Yankees. With any luck, the Yankees will give the dome its final send off tonight.

A game like Friday's has the potential to suck the life out of the losing team; I'm hopeful the Yanks can put them to sleep for good tonight. With the Angels completing an improbable sweep of the Red Sox this afternoon, they have the luxury of being off until Friday, when the ALCS begins. As such, they'll be able to rest up and set up their pitching as they see fit. It would behoove the Yankees to wrap up their ALDS business tonight as well, as it would allow them the same benefits the Angels are currently enjoying. Another four days off would be quite boring, and wouldn't exactly be ideal after all the down time in the past two weeks. But those would be awfully nice problems to have right now given how the Yankees' last three Division Series played out. Time to shake out the pain of the past three post-season series and ensure a little more idle time.



I might need some assistance if I don't get my pass
Looking for some time off to shake this pain out of my past
That island's not too far away, I think that I can swim
Maybe I'll just stick around and sift through this trash bin

Let 'em dance, let 'em sing
There'll be time enough for me
Daylight colors off the shore, I lay silent on the floor
Slowly sipping on my tea

Idle time brings idle wind
Ease your mind
Fall asleep again

Umping The Foul Lines

The Division Series round isn't even over yet and this post-season already has been a breeding ground for debate over umpiring. With the blown calls in Game 1 of the Angels-Red Sox series, TBS' introduction of PitchTRAX, and Phil Cuzzi's incorrect call on Joe Mauer's flyball in the eleventh inning Friday night, there's been no shortage of fuel for that fire.

No one wants to get jobbed by a bad call. But for better or worse they are part of the game. While the Yanks got shorted on one or two earlier this season, they've been fortunate to be on the good end of some bad calls in the post-season over the past 13 years. Friday night marks at least the third time that one of those calls involved an outfield umpire - the Jeffrey Maier homerun in ALCS Game 1 in 1996 and Jermaine Dye getting picked off by the right field ump in Atlanta during the 1996 World Series come to mind.

In Joel Sherman's Birth of Dynasty, chronicling the '96 team, former umpire Richie Garcia gave a lengthy explanation as to what happened during the Maier home run. Much of the explanation centered around the fact that umpires spend the entire six month season working the plate and the bases, and as such are unaccustomed to the rather unique task of working the foul lines in the post-season. In his post-game press conference Friday night, crew chief Tim Tschida gave a similar explanation as it related to Cuzzi's blown call. I think it's also possible that Melky Cabrera charging into Cuzzi's field of view may have had an impact on the mistake.

Neither Garcia nor Tschida used the unfamiliarity with the task as an excuse, but rather as an explanation as to how it could happen. I don't know if it's just correlation and not causation, but it does seem that umping the foul lines, which should be a rather anonymous task, too often becomes an ignominious task. That it happens when the games mean the most is very unfortunate, because I do think that the MLB umpires generally due a very good, if thankless, job.

I don't expect the Twins to be happy about Friday's call, nor should they be. They likely would have benefited from a lead-off double more than they did from Mauer's eventual single. But before anyone jumps to the conclusion that Mauer assuredly would have scored had he been rightly awarded the double, let me remind you of the "fallacy of the predetermined outcome" that local phallus-head Michael Kay so often likes to mention.

Mauer not getting the double does not change the fact that the Twins left 17 runners on base over the course of the game, nor does it change that they could easily have had an extra run in the fourth had Carlos Gomez either not stumbled or managed to get in a rundown after he did, nor does it change that they failed to score in a bases loaded, no out jam in that eleventh inning.

And as Ron Gardenhire rightly pointed out after the game, the Twins were the beneficiaries of an incorrect call in Tuesday's play-in game, as Brandon Inge was (technically) hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the twelfth and final inning. Instead of forcing in the go-ahead run for the Tigers, Inge bounced into a force play, and the Twins, just as the Yankees did Friday, won it in the bottom of the inning.

Of course, I completely reserve the right to change my tune should the Yankees get hosed at any point this post-season...

Ruminations On Game 2

Hello Fackers. Sorry for my recent absence - if any of you in fact noticed - various family, work, and laptop failure issues have kept me off the internets for most of the past 10 days or so. Thankfully Jay more than kept things afloat around here.

My uncle had tickets to Friday's ALDS Game 2, and my brother and I were fortunate enough to get the invite to join him and my cousin at the game. I'd never been to a post-season game before, and if I go to a hundred more, it'll be tough to match the excitement of Friday's game.

I'm a little late to the party on this one, so I don't want to recreate the game recap or echo Ben Kabak's sentiments about being there Friday night. But beyond my gratitude for being able to be there (and not having to suffer through Chip Caray in the process), there are a few thoughts I'd like to share on the game:

• I've been very critical of many Joe Girardi decisions over the course of this season. As I mentioned briefly last week, I wasn't completely sold on starting Jose Molina in Game 2, but beyond that, I agreed with every move Girardi made over the course of the game. For once, I thought the match ups he played with the bullpen were the right ones, even if not everyone executed properly (Marte). I still fear that Girardi's love for little ball will cost the Yankees a game at some point, but I'll give credit where it's due right now. I think he managed a great game Friday night.


• Last week I also questioned the need for three catchers on the ALDS roster. I still don't think it's the wisest use of a roster spot, but in light of the decision to start Molina, it allowed Girardi not only to pinch hit with Posada, but also to pinch run for Posada with Brett Gardner later on. It nearly worked to perfection in the eleventh inning.


• Like nearly everyone else, I thought the Yanks were screwed in the eleventh with the bases loaded and no one out. Yet, because of his league leading K-rate, David Robertson was exactly the pitcher I wanted on the mound at that point - and why I thought it was a smart move for Girardi to go to Aceves rather than the twice warmed D-Rob to start the tenth - better to save Robertson for a runners on jam like the one Marte pitched into. That Robertson was able to pitch out of that jam is remarkable. That he was able to do it without a strikeout or a doubleplay is amazing. Mark Teixeira will be remembered for his walk-off HR in this game, but he made two huge defensive plays to get the Yanks out of the jam in the top half of the final inning.


• Another play that will get lost in the noise of the dramatic home runs and furor over the blown foul ball call was a head's up defensive play from Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter in the fourth inning. As Carlos Gomez stumbled and fell rounding second base, Jeter wisely signaled for the ball and Swisher got it there in time to catch Gomez before Delmon Young could score. Not only did the Yankees catch a big break in Gomez falling, but the caught an even bigger one when Gomez instinctively scrambled back to the bag. Had he allowed himself to get caught in a rundown instead it would have been enough to prolong the play long enough for Young to cross the plate.

Lastly, thanks to all the matching up, Chad Gaudin was lone remaining active player out the bullpen when Teix ended the game. So while everyone else was partying at the plate, I caught this extremely amateurish shot of Gaudin (in the jacket) trotting in from the pen, past the ball boy, to join the party.



Back with more in a bit...

Some Sunday Reading

Usually the wait for a 6:07 playoff game on a weekend day would be fairly excruciating, but the Red Sox fire up just after noon (off an extremely unhealthy breakfast) and then we're in for a typical NFL Sunday with the Giants playing the Raiders at 1:00. If you need some reading to fill in the gaps, we've got some of that for you too.

- I didn't want to link to this before I read the entire thing so it's not hot off the press, but here Wright Thompson's feature on the Legends Seats for ESPN.com's E-Ticket. Our buddy Jason's work was used in creating the piece - a quote clearly derivative of this piece appears in the second section - but was sadly not specifically cited. It's an excellent read as it intertwines the culture on Wall Street with the advent Legends Club and gives some perspective how the economy of attending sporting evens has changed in the past 20 or so years.

- In other sports business news, Maury from the Biz of Baseball takes a look at how and how much teams revenue draw from their playoff appearances.

- Another great read that I didn't want to link before I read: A former Major League pitcher explores the neuroscience of trying to hit a baseball.

- Carson Cistulli over at FanGraphs relates the psychological concept of "flow" to Jered Weaver's postseason performance, but I think it makes even more sense when applied to A-Rod.

- Scott Piloti of the Newark Star-Ledger gives some background on Phil Cuzzi which I would highly recommend to those who calling for him to be fired because of one blown call. Umps are a lot more like you and I than they are like the players so let's all take a step back before demanding that someone lose their job over one mistake.

- Oh, NOW people want to talk about instant replay... Joe Posnanski hits some of the same notes I did, albeit a day later. Joe Girardi thinks things are fine the way they are. So does Ron Gardenhire also citing the "human element" - see Posnanski's take on that. Also, the managers know the umpires personally and can't see the replays that we do on TV so they're never going to be the ones spearheading the movement.

- An update on the Babe Ruth video previously discussed by the New York Times.

- Ian O'Connor talks to Tino Martinez about these Yankees and their new swagger.

We've got some more stuff coming throughout the afternoon so feel free to stop by and check it out.