Mitch Williams Is An Idiot

You probably knew that already anyway. If you don't recall as such from his playing days, perhaps you've listened to him trip over his own tongue repeatedly on the MLB Network this year. If not, simply refer to the picture below.

"I cut the sleeves off because it looks awesome, now get your head in the game!"

Last night, after finishing the recap, I checked a few other Yankee sites and had MLBN on in the background. I was only half listening. I noticed that recently DFA'd former Yankee and all-around good guy Tony Clark had joined the studio team - good for him. Combined with Sean Casey, last night's panel had two of the most well-liked Big Leaguers of the past twenty years or so.

But for all the goodwill that The Mayor and Tony the former Tiger can generate, one meandering argument from The Wild Thing ruined it all for me.

I'm not even quite sure what point Williams was trying to make. Maybe that's because I wasn't dedicating my full attention, or maybe it's because Williams hasn't made a lucid argument in his entire time with the fledgling network.

Regardless, the conversation started with the increasingly tiresome AL MVP debate. Williams stated that Mauer is at a disadvantage because he's a catcher and his legs are going to go on him at some point before the season's over. Except then Mitch said that Mauer is at an advantage because he missed the first month of the season, so he's fresher than he would be. Ok, advantage: push.

Then Derek Jeter came up. And Mitch made some point about batting average being an overvalued statistic. "Wow," I thought, "Mitch Williams is making a salient point."

Then Mitch took a turn for the inane. For some reason, Williams started comparing Jeter to Jimmy Rollins, who while a shortstop, plays in an entirely different league - so I'm not quite sure what any of it had to do with the AL MVP discussion.

That said, Williams, again emphasizing that batting average is an overvalued statistic, illustrated this by pointing out that despite a cavernous gap between them in batting average, Jimmy Rollins has 10 more doubles than Derek Jeter and has a fielding percentage that is superior by .007. End of story.

Well that's just great Mitch. Now let's finish the discussion. A .007 advantage in fielding percentage is nearly meaningless. The average Major League shortstop last year fielded 728 chances. A .007 difference in fielding percentage means that over the course of a season Rollins would turn roughly five more chances into outs. Five. That's less than one per month over the course of the season.

Of course, since Mitch is so plugged in to which stats are overvalued, he probably knows that fielding percentage is not a very accurate method of measuring a player's defensive value. A more advanced metric would be UZR/150. Now there's no denying that over the course of their respective careers, Jimmy Rollins has been a much, much, much better defensive player than Derek Jeter, holding a career edge in UZR/150 of 10.2 runs. However, this year, Derek Jeter's UZR/150 is 6.8 as opposed to Rollins' 5.9. So for 2009 at least, advantage Jeter.

How about offense? Well yes Mitch, Rollins does have a whopping 10 double lead. How about the other three types of hits a batter can get? 2009 slugging percentage Jimmy Rollins: .415. 2009 slugging percentage Derek Jeter: .482. And before anyone mentions a word about the new Yankee Stadium, let's remember that Citizens Bank Park is also very hitter friendly. Its one year park factors (102/101) are only slightly less offensive than Yankee Stadium's (103/103), and its multiyear factors (103/102) are nearly identical to how the Stadium has played in its brief history.

But, offense is more than just doubles. As Mitch knows, batting average is overrated. On base percentage is probably the best single measure of offensive value. 2009 OBP Rollins: .290. 2009 OBP Jeter: .398. Huge, huge, huge advantage Jeter. Both men bat leadoff. Over the course of a full season, Jeter will be on base roughly 83 more times based on their current OBPs. Jimmy Rollins' OBP is the absolute lowest of any Major Leaguer with at least 450 plate appearances this year. There are but six American Leaguers with a better OBP than Jeter.

How about something really advanced and all-encompassing: 2009 Wins Above Replacement Rollins: 1.8. 2009 Wins Above Replacement Jeter: 5.9. Once again, huge advantage Jeter. He's been worth more than three times as much to his team this year.

I'm not trying to bag on Jimmy Rollins. I'm not trying to suggest that Jeter is or isn't the AL MVP. But I am absolutely stupefied as to what point Mitch Williams was trying to make. That Joe Mauer has legs? That Jeter's not the MVP? That Jeter hits for average and that's all he's good for? That Jimmy Rollins isn't having an absolutely abysmal season? I don't know. I'm not sure Mitch knows. But, by virtue of his employment at MLBN, the guy is supposed to be a national authority on the sport. Whatever point he was trying to make, it was poorly, poorly constructed and its delivery was even worse.

In summary:
Joe Mauer's legs = a blessing and a curse, he may want to hedge his bets and cut one off
Batting average = overrated
Doubles = underrated
Fielding percentage = just right
UZR/150, OBP, WAR = non-existent
Mitch Williams = rivaling John Kruk for dumbest '93 Phillie turned analyst

An Interview With Mike Pagliarulo

Mike Pagliarulo was the Yankees' third baseman from July of 1984 until he was traded to San Diego in July of 1989. He was one of my childhood favorites.

Pags' Baseline Group backs the website Dugout Central, where I contributed before joining Fack Youk. He agreed to an email interview with me last month. We'll run the full interview in a few parts later this week, but a sneak preview with some of the highlights is currently posted at River Ave Blues.

If you're reading here, you're likely already reading at RAB, but if you're not, you really should be. Either way, head on over and give it a read. And be sure to check back here later this week for the full interview.

(Photo from the NY Post)

Not To Rain On The Pettitte Parade, But...

[Update: I need to work on my PitchFX interpretation a bit. Will from IIATM,S sets me straight and you should probably just read that]

It wasn't just the magic in the air and the abundance of Yankees fans at Camden Yards cheering him on last night that helped Andy Pettitte flirt with perfection:

[The red squares are called strikes and the green squares are balls]

According to the PitchFX tool on Brooks Baseball, Home Plate Umpire Marvin Hudson called 24 of the 104 pitches (23%) Pettitte threw last night as strikes when they should have been balls. Conversely, he called only two balls inside the zone strikes, both very close pitches at the knees. Not that the strike zone is perfect denoted by the black box in the chart above, but it is the width of home plate and gives you a pretty good idea of what is what.

Pettite threw 73 "strikes" last night, but only 8 of them were swinging. He threw 32 breaking pitches, 24 of them for strikes, no whiffs. None. Is ths because he has all of a sudden developed an incredibly deceptive curveball and slider, or because the pitches were not in the zone?

Below, I drew the red box to represent what Pettitte's actual strike zone looked like last night.

When you look at the red box as the strikezone instead, there are 13 "strikes" being called balls, which makes it twice as accurate as Hudson's zone, with which he incorrectly identified 26 pitches. The only problem is that the zone is roughly twice the size it should be. Home plate is 17" inches wide, but apparently to Hudson last night, it was nearly 36". The difference between the highest and lowest pitch he called for strikes, just for Pettitte, was more like 39".

Sure, Hudson was more or less consistent in calling pitches for both teams, mainly in terms of expanding the strikezone inside to right handed batters (which was more beneficial to Pettitte as a lefty), but in what other profession does being consistently wrong make it okay? The strikezone has to be a little subjective since it varies with each hitter, but not to the point where it can be doubled in size, right?

At certain point, Hudson had to know that he was calling pitches that were well off the plate for strikes. Andy Pettitte sure did, because he took advantage of it again and again. He also changed speeds beautifully, but some of the credit has to go to the extra-large target he was throwing to.

So while some might be tempted to blame Jerry Hairston, Jr. for his error in the 7th inning which broke up Pettitte's perfect game, they should be thanking Marvin Hudson for his ridiculous strikezone which made Pettitte's dominant performance possible in the first place.

A Look At September Call-Ups

Good morning Fackers - at least as good as it can be now that the summer months are officially over. One of the many things that makes baseball unique when compared to other sports is the expansion of rosters each September. Baseball goes through approximately 85% of its season with a 25 man roster. Then, right as the season enters its homestretch, when the games are supposed to matter most, the permitted roster size increases by a whopping 60%. Other sports don't expand their rosters at all.

But I don't have a problem with the practice. I think it's fun when the rosters expand. Teams that are out of it get a look at their prospects, teams that are in it get to bring in some reinforcements to give them a bit more roster flexibility.

Thankfully, the Yankees are in the latter category. So even though others have already weighed in on this elsewhere, I've long been planning to take a look at this once the calendar turned to September. So here's the official Fack Youk look at potential Yankee call-ups.

Only players on the 40 man roster are eligible for recall. Right off the bat, the Yankees lose three of their potential 15 call-ups, as Ian Kennedy, Christian Garcia, and Kevin Cash are all out for the year with injuries. I suppose the Yankees could DFA Cash to open a spot; but I'm not quite sure what the rules are on that is it pertains to an injured player. I'd imagine if they could, they would have already. Why else would they be keeping him around?

A fourth player that can be ruled out is 2007 first round draft pick, Andrew Brackman. The tall righty didn't make his pro debut until this year thanks to Tommy John surgery, and after a decent start to the season, he's absolutely lost it: 2-12 with a 6.26 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9, 10 hit batsmen, and an astounding 26 wild pitches. He's spent the whole season with low-A Charleston, so even if he were effective, he'd be a long, long shot for a recall.

Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang are both on the 60 day DL, so they do not count towards the forty man. Brett Gardner is on the 15 day DL (and nearly ready to begin a rehab assignment), so he does count towards the 40 man, and of course will be activated as soon as he's ready.

That leaves ten possibilities. Six of these possibilities are pitchers. Given the Yankees willingness to carry an ungodly amount of pitchers for much of the season, the current uncertainty about Sergio Mitre after Saturday's come-backer, and the plan to intentionally truncate the length of Joba Chamberlain's starts, it's a safe bet that most, if not all, of these pitchers will be recalled. Some of these names are familiar: Jonathan Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Edwar Ramirez, and Anthony Claggett have all seen time with the big club this year. I expect that Albaladejo and Melancon will be recalled right away. For Ramirez and Claggett, this month could represent their last chance to stick with the organization.

The remaining two pitchers on the 40 man are left-handers who have yet to play in the Major Leagues: Mike Dunn and Wilkins DeLaRosa. Dunn is a fifth year pro who was converted to pitching from the outfield after he struggled through 219 minor league PAs to the tune of .499 OPS. He spent most of his pitching career as a starter before being made a full time reliever last season. He's split this year between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton. He's striking out an impressive 12.1 per 9, but walking an unacceptable 5.7 per 9, including 6.5 per 9 at AAA. He's also allowing an unsightly 1.43 baserunners per inning. Given Phil Coke's recent struggles the team may want another left hander in the pen, and Dunn would be the first choice. If he doesn't get a call up, he's off to the Arizona Fall League.

Like Dunn, DeLaRosa is a converted outfielder, who OPS'd at .621 through 533 PAs in his first two pro seasons. Now in his third year as a pitcher, De La Rosa has spent most of the season in Trenton's rotation after making three starts with high-A Tampa. Combined, he's 5-5 on the year with a 3.17 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He also has experience out of the pen, with 30 of his 63 pro appearances coming in relief. I'm not expecting to see him get called up.

Amongst the position players, Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena are sure bets to be recalled right away. Nearly every team will be recalling a third catcher this month. Cervelli was impressive during his stint earlier this year and certainly deserves another look. Jorge Posada's finger injury makes Cervelli's presence all the more necessary and with Jose Molina's contract expiring at season's end, this will double as a final audition for Frankie. Cervelli was off the Scranton roster with a hand injury for about three weeks earlier in August, but he spent a few rehab games in the Gulf Coast Rookie League and rejoined Scranton a week ago.

Meanwhile, the Yankee bench has been short since Pena was optioned down on August 21st. His absence has left Jerry Hairston Jr as the lone back-up infielder, back-up centerfielder, and he's also been serving as the emergency catcher with Posada's injury. Pena's recall will ease the burden on Hairston a bit and help the Yankees to rest Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Robinson Cano down the stretch.

Shelley Duncan and Juan Miranda are the last two position players on the 40 man roster. If either are recalled, it probably won't be right away. Both Duncan and Miranda were recalled for a day earlier this year, but neither got into a game. However, both do have Major League experience: Duncan in both of the last two years, Miranda with 14 September plate appearances last year. Both have destroyed AAA pitching this year, with 48 HRs between them.

The Yankees may want to showcase Miranda a bit. He's a first baseman exclusively and the Yankees have other plans there for the next seven years or so. But he can hit - .291/.377/.483 in Scranton the last two years - and he's taking up a precious 40 man spot. The Yankees will likely use him to rest Mark Teixeira down the stretch and to dangle him as trade bait for the off-season.

Conceivably, the Yankees could make some moves to add players to the 40 man and recall them this month. Zach Kroenke is another lefty reliever, with a 1.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He strikes out less batters per nine than Dunn (7.1), but also walks fewer per nine (3.8). Like Dunn, he's off to Arizona this fall if he's not brought up.



Kevin Russo is primarily a second baseman with experience at third base and, and minimally at shortstop and the outfield corners. He doesn't have much power, but has great on base skills with a .415 OBP this year. As I stated earlier this summer, I'd like to see the organization give him the Ramiro Pena treatment and make a true utility man out of him. That said, he'd be redundant with Hairston and Pena already on the roster, but he's a name to remember as he'll need to be added to the 40 man this off-season. Cody Ransom is also at Scranton, and if the Yankees needed to add another infielder he'd likely have the inside track over Russo.

Austin Jackson is one of the Yanks top prospects, and we've looked at him intermittently over the course of the year. AJax has had a fine year at Scranton as a 22 year-old. Between his performance and the Gardner injury, a September call-up for Jackson seemed like a sure thing earlier this year. But now, given the 40 man situation and the recent indications that the Yankees want to give him another season at AAA, I don't think we'll see him in 2009. He does need to be added to the 40 man after the season though, so there is a chance the Yankees may try to add him now and give him a taste of the Majors.

One last thing to keep in mind is that the minor league seasons don't end for another week and that Scranton currently holds a 2.5 game lead in their division. While the Big Club certainly won't put themselves at a disadvantage to help Scranton's post-season chances, they do need to keep enough warm bodies in AAA until the season wraps.

[UPDATE 9:30 AM: Jon Heyman tweets that it's Melancon, Dunn, Pena, and Cervelli for now (h/t lenNY's Yankees). I'm surprised Albaladejo isn't included. Girardi's comments yesterday were "more than two pitchers"]

Pettitte Nearly Perfect; Yanks Roll On

For six and two thirds innings tonight, it appeared that the Yankees might just have a magical moment in what's becoming a very memorable season. Andy Pettitte was mowing down the O's with ease, breezing through the order and needing just 77 pitches to set down the first twenty batters in a row.

With two outs in the seventh, Adam Jones bounced a 1-0 delivery to third. Jerry Hairston Jr., giving Alex Rodriguez a night off, had made a nifty play to get the second out of the sixth and keep the perfecto alive. This time, on a far more routine play, Hairston booted the ball, ending the perfect game. The next batter, Nick Markakis, shot a single down the left field line, ending the no hit bid.
Lest anyone be quick to heap criticism or blame upon Jerry Hairston Jr, please remember two things. First, shit happens. Second, Melvin Mora led off the eighth with a home run, ending the shutout as well.

The home run from Mora was the only run yielded by Pettite, or any Yankee pitcher, the entire night. Pettitte continued his post All-Star Break dominance, running his record to 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 7 quality starts in 9 outings. For all the talk of the Yankee offense, consider this: tonight marked the fifth consecutive game that Yankees pitchers have allowed three walks or fewer, the fourth consecutive with two or fewer, and the third in the last four with one or fewer. Yankee starters have allowed just two free passes in the last four games and five in the last complete turn through the rotation. Tonight's game was the second time in the last three that Yankee pitchers have allowed four men or fewer to reach base via hit or walk.

As for the Yankee offense, Nick Swisher led off the third with a solo shot to give the Yanks a one run lead, then made it 2-0 in the fifth when he followed Robinson Cano's leadoff double with one of his own. From there, Joe Girardi fell in love with the bunt again, having Hairston attempt a bunt on an 0-1 pitch, and after he was hit by a pitch, having Melky Cabrera lay down a failed attempt that saw Swisher forced out at third.

The Yanks added three more in the eighth as Derek Jeter led off with a double, Johnny Damon drove him in the single, Mark Teixeira singled, and then with two outs, Cano doubled Damon and Teix in.

Perhaps the only blemish on the night (bunt fetishes aside) was another spotty performance from Brian Bruney. Charged with protecting a four run lead, Bruney went 3-0 on the leadoff batter, walked him on the sixth pitch of the plate appearance, and then after getting an out, gave up a single. It was enough to prompt Girardi to summon Mariano Rivera - perhaps a bit unnecessary, but Mo hasn't had much opportunity to work of late, and if that's the worst thing that happened on the night one can't really complain too much.

(Photos)

Game 131: Eight Miles High

As the Yankees begin a quick 7 game road trip to Toronto via Baltimore, they hold an 11.5 game cushion for a playoff spot, a 6 game lead in the division, a 4.5 game edge in the race for homefield advantage and trump the best team in the National League by 3.5 games as well. They took off during their last series against Baltimore and haven't touched the ground since.

The last time the Yanks began a series against the Orioles, they were trailing the Red Sox by one game shortly after the All Star break. The Yanks took three close games against the O's while the Sox lost three tight ones to the Rangers and the balance of power the the top of the AL East hasn't shifted since.

Andy Pettitte will be the first of the Yanks' top three starters to get the call for this series in Baltimore. Andy rebounded from his poor start in the blowout against Boston with a solid effort against the Rangers last Wednesday. Over seven innings he allowed two runs and seven hits while striking out seven, more than enough to collect his 11th win of the season.

In his last six starts, dating back to July 30th and including the clunker in Boston, Pettitte has a 2.60 ERA and has struck out more than one batter per inning. It's even better when compared to last August when Pettitte went 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA due mostly to a nagging injury to his shoulder. Having a healthy Andy Pettitte has been crucial to the Yankees ability to pull away from the pack in the second half this year.

Taking the ball for the Orioles tonight will be Jeremy Guthrie, the guy the Orioles thought was going to be their ace at the beginning of the season. Despite the support of his #1 fan, this has not been the case. He's struck out just 87 batters in 154 IP while walking 54. Even after two 7 inning, 1 ER efforts against the White Sox and Twins in his last two starts, Guthrie's ERA sits at 5.26 and his WHIP at 1.40 for the season. He has a chance to pick up three straight wins tonight though, something he hasn't done for over a year.

A-Rod gets the night off all together tonight as Jerry Hairston, Jr. gets the start at third and Hideki Matsui will DH.

The Yanks are 9-3 against both the Jays and the O's on the season and unlike the bird-named teams they'll take on during this road trip, they are certainly soaring at the moment.

Eight miles high and when you touch down,

You’ll find that it’s stranger than known,
Signs in the street that say where you’re going,
Are somewhere just being their own.

Nowhere is there warmth to be found,
Among those afraid of losing their ground,
Rain gray town known for it’s sound,
In places small faces unbound.

Vicarious Vacation

If you're up for one, head on over and check out our pal Jason's account of a once in-a-lifetime kind of afternoon he had with his family during a trip to San Diego:

Here's the setup: A few days prior to leaving for San Diego, I emailed my friend, Matt. Matt, an agent, has been a long time FOTB. In my email to Matt, I asked him if there was any way that I could get my boys to meet Kyle Blanks, a client of his, since we were going to be at the game. In a way that is typical Matt, he responded a few hours later with a "Call me asap" email. I gave him a call and he let me know that he not only arranged for us to meet Blanks, but that Kyle suggested that we meet him for lunch before the game. I was giddy, to say the least, as I knew this would be a tremendous experience for my boys...meeting a pro ballplayer and having lunch with him right before he played!

It gets better from there. There was more interaction with players (the Shyster jokes that there may have been some ulterior motives on their parts) and it makes you realize that while baseball in New York is certainly great in it's own right, the game is more accessible and easier to enjoy in person essentially everywhere else in the country.

Sure the Padres have to try a little harder to appease their fans since they are drifting lifelessly at 20 games below .500. It helps that they don't have to charge exorbitant prices on tickets or concessions to cover their $43M payroll (oh wait, minus Jake Peavy's $8M), too. But we're talking about San Diego here. I don't too many people are losing sleep over the Pad's record. When October comes in SoCal, it's still going to be 78 and sunny.

The New Yankee Stadium Of Golf

[Photo]

Since Matt brought the topic up before, here is an interesting (albeit pretty one-sided) article I saw about the course they played the Barclays' Championship at, Liberty National:

If you haven't heard about Liberty National, it's the world's most expensive grassy view lot -- a former oil tank farm that had all the visual appeal of a collapsing tenement building, even the rats avoided it. But it was located just across the water from the southern tip of Manhattan, roughly 1,000 yards from the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island.

So a rich guy bought it and built a private golf course that has generated more conversation, commentary and criticism than a penal U.S. Open track. As one player sarcastically pointed out, it's probably no accident Lady Liberty faces the other direction.

What follows is a bunch of tour pros trashing the place, similar to what we heard from some players about the New Yankee Stadium. Similarly, Liberty National cost far more than other courses to construct ($250M) and demands a $500,000 membership initiation fee before annual dues are factored in, which I'm going to blindly guess are north of $50,000. However, it's only a short private shuttle-boat ride from downtown Manhattan which offers a level convenience which is unmatched in NYC area golf.

The owner, Paul Fireman freely admits that the course as a poor investment, and the designer Tom Kite readily acknowledges that due to the way the course was constructed, nothing is natural about it. For 30 years, they played the tournament at historic Westchester Country Club and no such kvetching was heard. Sound familiar?

Sure, most of the bitching from the players was unwarranted. And all of it was unnecessary, if you ask Vijay Singh:

"One who doesn't worry about what the golf course is, and just plays one shot at a time," Singh said. "You go out there and start criticizing the golf course, then you might as well not show up."

The great thing about golf, like baseball, is that everyone plays under the same conditions. So when it all shakes out, regardless of the difficulty or quirkiness of the place you are competing, the playing field is level.

He's A Better Golfer Than He Was A Closer

Golf is definitely Jay's territory around here, as I generally have no interest in the sport unless it involves a windmill and/or a clown combined with drunken gambling.

However, I couldn't help but notice the results of the final round of The Barclays over in Jersey City yesterday, where Heath(cliff) Slocum(b) out lasted Tiger and the other guys to win the tournament.

Looking to sell high, the PGA Tour promptly traded him to the Nationwide Tour in exchange for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.

The Obligatory Joba Post

Yeah, Joba Rulez!!1!

Apparently the editors at the Daily News aren't capable of calculating that two runs in three innings equates to a 6.00 ERA. That's not good.

Actually, lost in all the discussion about his innings limit is the fact that since throwing 8 shutout frames against the Rays on July 29th, Joba hasn't been good at all. He's allowed four or more runs in every game (with the exception of yesterday of course) and hasn't made it into the 7th inning once. He's watched his ERA rise from 3.58 to 4.38 over that time and even though the Yanks scored an average of 8 runs a game behind him, he only walked away with one victory.

Joba is now at a level of innings pitched that he's never reached before, so perhaps he's running into a natural limit of sorts, without regard the one that the Yanks are placing on him.

Although I was critical of the fact that the Yanks keep changing their plans for Joba, the latest version does seem to make the most sense of the options available. What I didn't know before noting that 35 pitches seemed a little low in last night's recap was that the Yanks plan to start Chamberlain off slowly, and sort of re-stretch him out so that he's ready to go as deep as necessary when the postseason rolls around.

It makes more intuitive sense than having him start on extended rest and still allows him to contribute to the team and be tested against Major Leaguers, as opposed to shutting him down or sending him to the minors. They got away with the tightest restriction in the only start Joba will make before the rosters expand so it's much less risky to the bullpen from here on out.

At this point, Joba is slotted for the 4th game of a postseason series only by default. Everyone is getting worked up about the way the Yankees are handling him (without providing a reasonable alternative), but they should probably be more concerned about the fact that he hasn't been a good pitcher of late. Let's focus not on how many innings he pitches, but how well he pitches in those innings.

A Good Weekend, But Not Good Enough For Some

Rise and shine, Fackers. I know it's Monday, but the good weekend that was in Yankeeland should help soften the blow. They managed to get in all three games without so much as a delay despite a tropical depression lurking just off the coast in the Atlantic which prevented some complications later in the season. Although the Yanks struggled in their first meeting with the White Sox in Chicago, they swept this three game set and might have dealt the final blow to the Pale Hose' playoff hopes for this year.

After surrendering the lead in a dramatic 7th inning on Friday, the Bombers got a walk off, homer from Robinson Cano, with runners in scoring position, no less. Saturday played host to an offensive explosion and a stellar pitching contribution from the most unlikely of places. You can't tell just by looking at the final score, but Sunday's game was more similar to Friday's than Saturday's in that it was hotly contested. The Yanks held on tight until the bottom of the seventh inning and only after that did their offense finally take over.

In their past 9 games (dating back to the beginning of the Red Sox series), the Yanks have scored an average of 8 runs per game, which has allowed them to go 6-3 during that stretch against three teams that were all in Wild Card contention when it began despite allowing almost 6 against.

Steve at Was Watching, however, is not impressed. Yesterday, he noted that the Yankees are "only" 33-30 when playing a team with a record at or above .500 and even goes as far as to label the post "possible bad news". The point of the article was apparently to insinuate that the Yankees are doomed in the playoffs:

...but, I'm thinking ahead to the post-season, for the Yankees. And, there will be no Blue Jays, A's, Orioles, Twins or Mets for the Yankees to play in October. Most likely, New York will have to deal with Detroit or Texas in the ALDS and then face someone like the Angels, Red Sox or Rays in the ALCS (should the Yankees advance past the ALDS for the first time since 2004). And, that’s a horse of another color, no?

Well yes, the postseason is different than the regular season. But the rest of that argument? Yikes. Where to begin?

How about the fact that the Twins, who Steve lumped in with the "losing" teams, as a result of winning ONE GAME, are now at .500, swinging the Yankees record from 33-30 to 40-30 against these teams, which is now the best in the AL. So his post went from spurious to irrelevant in roughly 5 hours.

Just because it's listed in a column on Baseball-Reference doesn't make it a useful stat. Aside from the perfect example provided by the Twins above (which could have been prevented by removing their 0-7 record against the Yanks), there are plenty of good reasons not to take much stock in team's play against other squads with "winning records".

For one, the teams are divided based on their cumulative record for the season, which for various reasons doesn't always accurately reflect their strength at various points within it. For instance, the Yankees took 5 of the 6 games they played against the Mets this year, but going into that 6th game, the Mets were 37-36. Now, after putting $85M on the DL, they are a shell of their former selves and 13 games below .500 so it looks like the Yankees were beating up on a cupcake.

A while back, (actually while debunking a piece on WSJ.com that claimed having a losing record against teams over .500 was actually a good thing) we determined that the average winning percentage against teams over .500 is around .430. This means that an average team would be 27-36 against teams with winning records through 63 games. Using that as a benchmark, even the 33-30 Steve was working with is quite a healthy showing.

As we have more recently discussed, the fine folks as Baseball Prospectus have studied what makes a team likely to succeed in October and at no point was the team's record against opponents with winning records even factored into the equation.

For better or for worse, over the next month, more and more emphasis is going to be placed on the Yankees odds in the postseason. There will be countless theories proposed about why the Yanks are poised to return to World Series glory or be bounced in the first round. The truth is that there are a myriad of variables that will ultimately determine how they fare, and the most important one is luck.

Yanks Continue To Kick Ass, Take Names

[Photos]

The Yanks trailed twice in this game in the first and third innings, and true to their hallmark during their post All-Star break tear, answered as soon as possible, tying the game in the bottom of the first and taking the lead for good in the third.

As Joe Girardi predicted when he first unveiled the new and improved Joba Plan, Chamberlain did not factor into the decision. The three innings Joba threw weren't especially impressive and weren't much better than his previous start. He only struck out one batter and allowed two runs, but threw 23 of his 35 pitches for strikes (66%). Whether he was pulled just on the basis of the pitch count or the fact the he wasn't effective could be debated, but if 35 was the number they had in mind coming into the game, he could have easily blown through that allotment in the second inning.

Alfredo Aceves played the role of Joba's babysitter today, pitching three scoreless innings and allowing only two hits while throwing only 32 pitches. When added together Joba Aceves combined for a quality start and turned the game over to the rest of the bullpen with the lead after the sixth inning.

In the top of the 7th, Girardi called on Damaso Marte to face Jim Thome, and then stalled momentarily before calling on David Robertson. D-Rob struck out Jermaine Dye but allowed back to back singles to Mark Kotsay and Alexei Ramirez. With the Yankees leading by only one run at the time, Girardi went to the bullpen for the second time in the inning, this time summoning Phil Hughes. As Joe G. might say, "Hughesy" got Jason Nix to fly out, ending the inning.

The offense awoke in the bottom half of the inning, but their explosion could have easily been stifled had the second batter of the inning, Robinson Cano been rightly called out at first as the second part of a double play. Instead, the ump missed a bang-bang play and the Yanks ended up capitalizing to the tune of 5 runs, capped by a three run shot by Mark Teixeira.

Johnny Damon was removed from the game in the 9th inning, but apparently it wasn't a big deal. Phle Coke gave up yet another HR but with a 6 run leadthat wasn't too much of an issue, either. With the sweep of the White Sox, the Yanks only kept pace with the Red Sox, who took all three from Toronto.

Game 130: Don't Keep Me Wonderin'

This afternoon the Yankees will go for the sweep while the reeling White Sox try to salvage a game of the series and keep their shrinking post-season hopes alive.

The Pale Hose send Freddy Garcia to the mound. In nine career starts against the Yankees, Garcia is 4-3 with 4.19 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.08. The Yankees have not faced him since 2006. Thanks to injuries, Garcia has made just five starts over the last two seasons, and just sixteen since the White Sox sent him to the Phillies after the 2006 season. He has a 5.70 ERA (81 ERA+) and 1.48 WHIP in that time. The White Sox are two games under .500, facing a sweep today, five games back and now in third place in the Central. The season is slipping away from them rapidly. They desperately need Garcia return to his early 2000s form today; Jake Peavy left his rehab start early last night - there is no help on the way.

Joba Chamberlain returns to the hill for the Yankees today, this time on regular rest. As Jay pointed out yesterday, the plan has changed again and we are now on the Joba Rules v2.2. Or v2.3 - I'm not even sure anymore. If the Yankees do truncate his start today, they'll have a well-rested bullpen at their disposal thanks to outstanding combined effort from Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin yesterday.

In his first three starts after the All-Star break, Chamberlain went 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and a .422 OPS against. In four starts since then, he's 1-2 with an 8.55 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and a .921 OPS against. Which Joba will show up today?

In many ways Joba has been frustrating to watch this season. Undeniably talented, he's gone through stretches like this most recent one where he seemingly refused to work with any semblance of rhythm and insisted upon nibbling rather than challenging hitters. Compounding that frustration has been Chamberlain's use of all manner of excuses and cliches following his starts: he thought he had good stuff, they hit good pitches, it was tough pitching on extra rest, etc.

I realize 23 year old pitchers are going to struggle. I realize the Yankees probably aren't doing him any favors by tweaking and re-tweaking their plan for how to use him. But I can do without the Nuke LaLoosh routine.

While we'll likely have to endure something similar next year with Phil Hughes thanks to his lack of usage this year, I'm hoping that this latest iteration to Joba's plan will be the last. No more wondering about when he's going to pitch or how deep he's going to go in his starts. Armed with that knowledge, I'm hopeful that Joba can put it together down the stretch and keep us from wondering whether Good Joba or Bad Joba is going to show up on any given day.

Jorge Posada returns to the line up today. Eric Hinske gives Nick Swisher a day off in right.

I'll catch the early innings on the tube and then it's off to the Widespread Panic and Allman Brothers Band show. While this concert isn't quite the Christmas in the summertime that it once was for me, it's still one I've been looking forward to all summer. As such, here's some vintage Allman Brothers Band from the old Fillmore East, 9/23/1970. Enjoy the game.



I think about the bad times
Lord I think about yours and mine
You were lost in the silver spoon
Thought I pulled you out in time
And I hope that you got reasons
For the way that you've been lying
Please don't keep me wonderin' no longer