He's A Better Golfer Than He Was A Closer

Golf is definitely Jay's territory around here, as I generally have no interest in the sport unless it involves a windmill and/or a clown combined with drunken gambling.

However, I couldn't help but notice the results of the final round of The Barclays over in Jersey City yesterday, where Heath(cliff) Slocum(b) out lasted Tiger and the other guys to win the tournament.

Looking to sell high, the PGA Tour promptly traded him to the Nationwide Tour in exchange for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.

The Obligatory Joba Post

Yeah, Joba Rulez!!1!

Apparently the editors at the Daily News aren't capable of calculating that two runs in three innings equates to a 6.00 ERA. That's not good.

Actually, lost in all the discussion about his innings limit is the fact that since throwing 8 shutout frames against the Rays on July 29th, Joba hasn't been good at all. He's allowed four or more runs in every game (with the exception of yesterday of course) and hasn't made it into the 7th inning once. He's watched his ERA rise from 3.58 to 4.38 over that time and even though the Yanks scored an average of 8 runs a game behind him, he only walked away with one victory.

Joba is now at a level of innings pitched that he's never reached before, so perhaps he's running into a natural limit of sorts, without regard the one that the Yanks are placing on him.

Although I was critical of the fact that the Yanks keep changing their plans for Joba, the latest version does seem to make the most sense of the options available. What I didn't know before noting that 35 pitches seemed a little low in last night's recap was that the Yanks plan to start Chamberlain off slowly, and sort of re-stretch him out so that he's ready to go as deep as necessary when the postseason rolls around.

It makes more intuitive sense than having him start on extended rest and still allows him to contribute to the team and be tested against Major Leaguers, as opposed to shutting him down or sending him to the minors. They got away with the tightest restriction in the only start Joba will make before the rosters expand so it's much less risky to the bullpen from here on out.

At this point, Joba is slotted for the 4th game of a postseason series only by default. Everyone is getting worked up about the way the Yankees are handling him (without providing a reasonable alternative), but they should probably be more concerned about the fact that he hasn't been a good pitcher of late. Let's focus not on how many innings he pitches, but how well he pitches in those innings.

A Good Weekend, But Not Good Enough For Some

Rise and shine, Fackers. I know it's Monday, but the good weekend that was in Yankeeland should help soften the blow. They managed to get in all three games without so much as a delay despite a tropical depression lurking just off the coast in the Atlantic which prevented some complications later in the season. Although the Yanks struggled in their first meeting with the White Sox in Chicago, they swept this three game set and might have dealt the final blow to the Pale Hose' playoff hopes for this year.

After surrendering the lead in a dramatic 7th inning on Friday, the Bombers got a walk off, homer from Robinson Cano, with runners in scoring position, no less. Saturday played host to an offensive explosion and a stellar pitching contribution from the most unlikely of places. You can't tell just by looking at the final score, but Sunday's game was more similar to Friday's than Saturday's in that it was hotly contested. The Yanks held on tight until the bottom of the seventh inning and only after that did their offense finally take over.

In their past 9 games (dating back to the beginning of the Red Sox series), the Yanks have scored an average of 8 runs per game, which has allowed them to go 6-3 during that stretch against three teams that were all in Wild Card contention when it began despite allowing almost 6 against.

Steve at Was Watching, however, is not impressed. Yesterday, he noted that the Yankees are "only" 33-30 when playing a team with a record at or above .500 and even goes as far as to label the post "possible bad news". The point of the article was apparently to insinuate that the Yankees are doomed in the playoffs:

...but, I'm thinking ahead to the post-season, for the Yankees. And, there will be no Blue Jays, A's, Orioles, Twins or Mets for the Yankees to play in October. Most likely, New York will have to deal with Detroit or Texas in the ALDS and then face someone like the Angels, Red Sox or Rays in the ALCS (should the Yankees advance past the ALDS for the first time since 2004). And, that’s a horse of another color, no?

Well yes, the postseason is different than the regular season. But the rest of that argument? Yikes. Where to begin?

How about the fact that the Twins, who Steve lumped in with the "losing" teams, as a result of winning ONE GAME, are now at .500, swinging the Yankees record from 33-30 to 40-30 against these teams, which is now the best in the AL. So his post went from spurious to irrelevant in roughly 5 hours.

Just because it's listed in a column on Baseball-Reference doesn't make it a useful stat. Aside from the perfect example provided by the Twins above (which could have been prevented by removing their 0-7 record against the Yanks), there are plenty of good reasons not to take much stock in team's play against other squads with "winning records".

For one, the teams are divided based on their cumulative record for the season, which for various reasons doesn't always accurately reflect their strength at various points within it. For instance, the Yankees took 5 of the 6 games they played against the Mets this year, but going into that 6th game, the Mets were 37-36. Now, after putting $85M on the DL, they are a shell of their former selves and 13 games below .500 so it looks like the Yankees were beating up on a cupcake.

A while back, (actually while debunking a piece on WSJ.com that claimed having a losing record against teams over .500 was actually a good thing) we determined that the average winning percentage against teams over .500 is around .430. This means that an average team would be 27-36 against teams with winning records through 63 games. Using that as a benchmark, even the 33-30 Steve was working with is quite a healthy showing.

As we have more recently discussed, the fine folks as Baseball Prospectus have studied what makes a team likely to succeed in October and at no point was the team's record against opponents with winning records even factored into the equation.

For better or for worse, over the next month, more and more emphasis is going to be placed on the Yankees odds in the postseason. There will be countless theories proposed about why the Yanks are poised to return to World Series glory or be bounced in the first round. The truth is that there are a myriad of variables that will ultimately determine how they fare, and the most important one is luck.

Yanks Continue To Kick Ass, Take Names

[Photos]

The Yanks trailed twice in this game in the first and third innings, and true to their hallmark during their post All-Star break tear, answered as soon as possible, tying the game in the bottom of the first and taking the lead for good in the third.

As Joe Girardi predicted when he first unveiled the new and improved Joba Plan, Chamberlain did not factor into the decision. The three innings Joba threw weren't especially impressive and weren't much better than his previous start. He only struck out one batter and allowed two runs, but threw 23 of his 35 pitches for strikes (66%). Whether he was pulled just on the basis of the pitch count or the fact the he wasn't effective could be debated, but if 35 was the number they had in mind coming into the game, he could have easily blown through that allotment in the second inning.

Alfredo Aceves played the role of Joba's babysitter today, pitching three scoreless innings and allowing only two hits while throwing only 32 pitches. When added together Joba Aceves combined for a quality start and turned the game over to the rest of the bullpen with the lead after the sixth inning.

In the top of the 7th, Girardi called on Damaso Marte to face Jim Thome, and then stalled momentarily before calling on David Robertson. D-Rob struck out Jermaine Dye but allowed back to back singles to Mark Kotsay and Alexei Ramirez. With the Yankees leading by only one run at the time, Girardi went to the bullpen for the second time in the inning, this time summoning Phil Hughes. As Joe G. might say, "Hughesy" got Jason Nix to fly out, ending the inning.

The offense awoke in the bottom half of the inning, but their explosion could have easily been stifled had the second batter of the inning, Robinson Cano been rightly called out at first as the second part of a double play. Instead, the ump missed a bang-bang play and the Yanks ended up capitalizing to the tune of 5 runs, capped by a three run shot by Mark Teixeira.

Johnny Damon was removed from the game in the 9th inning, but apparently it wasn't a big deal. Phle Coke gave up yet another HR but with a 6 run leadthat wasn't too much of an issue, either. With the sweep of the White Sox, the Yanks only kept pace with the Red Sox, who took all three from Toronto.

Game 130: Don't Keep Me Wonderin'

This afternoon the Yankees will go for the sweep while the reeling White Sox try to salvage a game of the series and keep their shrinking post-season hopes alive.

The Pale Hose send Freddy Garcia to the mound. In nine career starts against the Yankees, Garcia is 4-3 with 4.19 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.08. The Yankees have not faced him since 2006. Thanks to injuries, Garcia has made just five starts over the last two seasons, and just sixteen since the White Sox sent him to the Phillies after the 2006 season. He has a 5.70 ERA (81 ERA+) and 1.48 WHIP in that time. The White Sox are two games under .500, facing a sweep today, five games back and now in third place in the Central. The season is slipping away from them rapidly. They desperately need Garcia return to his early 2000s form today; Jake Peavy left his rehab start early last night - there is no help on the way.

Joba Chamberlain returns to the hill for the Yankees today, this time on regular rest. As Jay pointed out yesterday, the plan has changed again and we are now on the Joba Rules v2.2. Or v2.3 - I'm not even sure anymore. If the Yankees do truncate his start today, they'll have a well-rested bullpen at their disposal thanks to outstanding combined effort from Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin yesterday.

In his first three starts after the All-Star break, Chamberlain went 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and a .422 OPS against. In four starts since then, he's 1-2 with an 8.55 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and a .921 OPS against. Which Joba will show up today?

In many ways Joba has been frustrating to watch this season. Undeniably talented, he's gone through stretches like this most recent one where he seemingly refused to work with any semblance of rhythm and insisted upon nibbling rather than challenging hitters. Compounding that frustration has been Chamberlain's use of all manner of excuses and cliches following his starts: he thought he had good stuff, they hit good pitches, it was tough pitching on extra rest, etc.

I realize 23 year old pitchers are going to struggle. I realize the Yankees probably aren't doing him any favors by tweaking and re-tweaking their plan for how to use him. But I can do without the Nuke LaLoosh routine.

While we'll likely have to endure something similar next year with Phil Hughes thanks to his lack of usage this year, I'm hoping that this latest iteration to Joba's plan will be the last. No more wondering about when he's going to pitch or how deep he's going to go in his starts. Armed with that knowledge, I'm hopeful that Joba can put it together down the stretch and keep us from wondering whether Good Joba or Bad Joba is going to show up on any given day.

Jorge Posada returns to the line up today. Eric Hinske gives Nick Swisher a day off in right.

I'll catch the early innings on the tube and then it's off to the Widespread Panic and Allman Brothers Band show. While this concert isn't quite the Christmas in the summertime that it once was for me, it's still one I've been looking forward to all summer. As such, here's some vintage Allman Brothers Band from the old Fillmore East, 9/23/1970. Enjoy the game.



I think about the bad times
Lord I think about yours and mine
You were lost in the silver spoon
Thought I pulled you out in time
And I hope that you got reasons
For the way that you've been lying
Please don't keep me wonderin' no longer

Mitre Finally Delivers

[Photos]

Who would have thought that after two dominant performances by A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia which resulted in a loss and a no-decision that it would be Sergio Mitre who finally followed through and picked up a win? Ten runs in support surely didn't hurt, but the start he turned it was better that what either of the high-priced offseason acquisitions turned in the past two games, at least in terms of runs allowed: 0.

Mitre effortlessly plowed through 4 1/3 perfect innings before allowing his only hit of the game, a double down the line ot Jim Thome. He then induced back to back ground outs to Jermaine Dye and Alex Rios to keep the White Sox off the board. The only other baserunner Mitre gave up was via a walk to Brent Lillibridge to start the 7th inning. The very next batter, A.J. Pierzynski, hit a line drive off of Mitre's right forearm, which Mitre corralled and threw to first for the out, but ended his dream start after only 6 1/3 innings. X-Rays were negative.

The Serg had only thrown 73 pitches, and looked to be ticketed for at least the 8th inning and possibly a complete game. He only struck out two batters but benefited from some excellent defensive plays like the diving stop and throw to first by A-Rod to keep his perfect game alive in the 5th and a ridiculous ranging snag and toss by Robinson Cano behind second base in the 6th. Chad Gaudin came on in relief, finishing the game with 2 2/3 scoreless innings, 4 strikeouts and only one walk.

Oh yeah, the offense was pretty good in this one, too. The Yanks pounded Jose Contreras, tagging him with 7 runs without the use of a homer before chasing him from the game in the 4rd inning. D.J. Carrasco allowed one of his inherited runners to score so in all, 8 runs scored on the big Cuban's watch, 6 earned.

Continuing with the even-numbered inning scoring barrage, the Yanks tacked on individual runs in the 6th and 8th innings, the first on a single by Cano scoring Mark Teixeria and the second on A-Rod's 23rd homer of the year. Derek Jeter continued his impossibly hot streak by going 3-4 while everyone in the starting line up scored a run.

Today probably marks the last time I try to play amateur meteorologist for a while. Not only were there no delays, but it hardly rained at all during the game despite overcast skies. I wasn't alone in my assumptions, though, as the stands were sparsely populated, at least for a Saturday afternoon game.

The win tonight brings the Yankees to a season-high 33 games over .500 and one win away from completing the sweep of the White Sox in the Bronx. The Red Sox get underway shortly over at Fenway, and they'll have to win to stay 6.0 games behind the Yanks. Your move, Boston.

Game 129: Riders On The Storm

Sergio Mitre has the unenviable task today of wandering around the clubhouse and biding his time while Tropical Depression Danny shifts shapes amorphously out in the Atlantic and tosses rain down on Yankee Stadium. Sergio might be used to the suspense by now though, since he's only appeared in two of the last 15 games for the Yanks. He makes Phil Hughes seem taxed by comparison.

Mitre had his best start of the year (still not all that good) in Seattle on the 15th, but since then has only popped up once, in two innings of relief during the Red Sox game the Yanks won by 9 runs. After working a perfect 8th inning, Mitre allowed 4 runs in the 9th including two homers before recording the final out. Who knows which Mitre we are going to get today, but the recent inactivity doesn't bode very well for his success.

Former Yankee Jose Contreras will take the mound for the White Sox today. El Titan de Bronze got off to a rocky start this year, getting sent down to AAA after an 0-5 start with an 8.19 ERA. He reemerged triumphantly, however after being called up for the first game of a double-header a month later. He pitched 8 innings of scoreless ball and then duplicated the feat in his next start out. Since then, his ERA has hovered around 5, mixing some good performances with some terrible ones. Since he varies his arm angle his control is erratic, sometimes allowing too many walks, and other times compiling lots of strikeouts while walking hardly anyone. This is the essence of Contreras, brilliant at times, but consistently inconsistent.

Jose Molina will be doing the catching again today as Jerry Hairston Jr. spells Melky in centerfield. Other than that, it will be the usual suspects, including Hurricane A-Rod at 3rd.

Last night's game went late, but not for the reason I envisioned in the preview. Today however, with Danny slowly meandering his way up the East Coast, it's clear there are going to be some delays involved with riding out this storm.

Riders on the storm,
Into this house were born,
Into this world were thrown,
Like a dog without a bone,
An actor out on loan,
Riders on the storm.

Since there will likely be some time to kill before game time, here's a Snoop Dogg remix of the song that I didn't know existed until I searched for the original on YouTube today. Truth be told, I think it's pretty damn good.

When Is A Plan Not A Plan?

In the car yesterday, I was listening to the radio pregame and heard Joe Girardi tell John Sterling on "The Manager's Show" (since confirmed by others) that Joba Chamberlain will now be starting on his regular 5 days of rest, but as Girardi said "may not always factor into the decision". This obviously means that instead of allowing him fewer starts, they are going to limit his innings per appearance.

Joba only has one start left before September call-ups are made, so hopefully Joe Girardi will utilize the resulting extra arms available to him to cushion the blow on the more valuable members of the bullpen. I have my doubts though, because Girardi, like Joe Torre before him, has real trouble putting any reliever that he doesn't trust into a game that isn't a totally one-sided. Much will depend on the standings, of course.

I wasn't sure why, but listening to Girardi deliver that piece of news, I felt a little miffed. Just like they did with A-Rod and his supposed "one day off per week" plan the Yankees immediately deviated from their stated intentions, which sort of defeats the purpose of, you know, having "a plan". That is their right, but at what point to do we stop listening to what the Yankees claim they are going to do?

Cashman and Girardi use of "plans" as a tool to convey their message to the media with a degree of certainty that stifles the speculation that can sometimes get out of hand in New York. It certainly is an effective tactic, because when they say something, it gets reported in multiple places as fact, only to be redacted and updated at the shortest possible interval in which it could be changed.

So next time we hear the Yankees claim that they have "a plan" for something, let's realize what that is has more to do with PR than it does with baseball.

A Walk (Off) In The Rain

For much of last night's game, it appeared to be frustratingly similar to Thursday afternoon's loss. The Yankees, behind an excellent pitching performance, put runner after runner on base, but could not put a big inning together. Fortunately for them, Friday night's result was better than that of the day before.

As they often do against them, the Yankees hit Mark Buehrle hard. Derek Jeter led off the game by launching a home run just to the left of Monument Park. Johnny Damon followed with a line drive single to right. Mark Teixeira than lifted a moon shot to deep left field, but got under it a bit too much and the wind, blowing in from left most of the night, held it in the ball park. Alex Rodriguez followed with a hard hit fly out to deep left, then Hideki Matsui ripped a single to right. With two on and two out, Nick Swisher grounded out to end the inning.

The Yankees added their second run in the third on another leadoff home run, this time from Johnny Damon. Teixeira followed with a double, then A-Rod walked. But once again, the Yankees would strand the runners on base.

In the fifth, the Yankees would threaten, but come up empty again, leaving the bases loaded. Through five innings, the Yankees had left eight runners on base - five of them in scoring position. They were 0 for 6 with RISP, with Robinson Cano twice ending innings with two runners in scoring position. Thankfully, he would have more opportunity on the night.

Despite the offensive struggles, CC Sabathia was pitching so well that two runs appeared to be enough. He struck out two in a perfect first. He gave up a leadoff "double" in the second when Melky Cabrera lost a fly ball, then proceeded to strike out the side. After a two out single in the third, he set down six in a row. Through six, CC had allowed no runs, five hits, no walks, and had tied his season-high with 10 Ks.

In the seventh, the Big Guy finally hit a bump in the road, giving up a double, a walk, and another double to start the frame, cutting his lead to 2-1. After recording an out, Ramon Castro ripped one down the third baseline, ticketed for the leftfield corner and another double. But Alex Rodriguez had a diving stop and gunned down Carlos Quentin at the plate for the second out of the inning. An infield single loaded the bases, then likely Rookie of the Year Gordon Beckham tied the game with a base hit to right field. Castro attempted to score the go-ahead run from second, but Nick Swisher threw him out at the plate.

From there the game turned into a battle of the bullpens. Matt Thornton worked a perfect seventh and eight for the ChiSox. The Yanks called on long-lost Phil Hughes for the eighth and he struck out the side. Despite throwing just fourteen pitches in the eighth and just 3.1 innings over the last two weeks, Hughes was was lifted for Mariano Rivera with the score tied in the ninth. Mo worked a perfect frame like Hughes before him, and Brian Bruney followed with a perfect tenth.

In the bottom of the tenth, the White Sox turned to Randy Williams. The lefty entered the night having fanned 12 and walked 5 in 9.1 innings of work. He needed just four pitches to strike out leadoff man Mark Teixeira, and made him look bad in doing so. A-Rod then launched the first pitch he saw to deep center field, clearly thinking it was gone off the bat. But once again the wind held it up, and quickly there were two down.

Perhaps unnerved by the scare, Williams uncorked eight consecutive balls to Hideki Matsui and Nick Swisher. Robinson Cano then came to the plate, 0 for 4 on the night, 0 for 2 with RISP, and having left five runners on base in ending the third and fifth innings. With one swing though, Cano made up for it, blasting a 2-2 pitch into the Yankee bullpen to give the Yankees yet another walk off win.

(Photos)

Game 128: Late

The Yankees have lost two series since the All-Star break, the one that concluded last night against the Rangers and before that, one against the White Sox that spanned the end of July and the beginning of August. It was too late to salvage a halve in the series out in Chicago, but the Yanks avoided a sweep as CC Sabathia worked around one bad inning and the offense touched up Buehrle for 7 runs in 4 1/3.

The same lefty-lefty match up will be replicated in the Bronx. The big fella wasn't perfect his last time out against the Red Sox on Sunday Night baseball, but the 4 runs he allowed over 6 2/3 were good enough to get him the win. He's won his last five starts and is looking to go a perfect 6 for 6 in August with a victory tonight.

In his career, Buehrle hasn't had much luck against Sabathia or the Yankees. In 9 starts against the Bombers, the lefty is just 1-6 with a 6.84 ERA and CC has owned him, going 6-0 in 10 career head to head starts. These numbers make for decent storylines, but don't mean a whole lot. The Yankees have been in a continuous state of flux since Buehrle first faced them back in 2001 as El Duque started against him and the only two players who appeared in the game and are still on the team are Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. Clearly the offenses involved have played a major factor in that 6-0 head-to-head record against Sabathia and those have changed quite a bit as well.

More relevantly, Buehrle hasn't been great as of late, either. Since his perfect game, he's gone 0-4 in six starts with a 6.16 ERA, even though one of those consisted of 8 innings of shutout ball against the Mariners. During that span, he's struck out just 12 in 38 innings and walked 7 while giving up 54 hits.

The weather in the NYC area this evening may not be conducive for a baseballing contest and as Ross from New Stadium Insider notes, there aren't many chances for make up dates with only a little more than month left in the season. Expect the Yanks to do all they can to get the games this weekend in, which could lead to a late one tonight.

I'll be late for that, I can't wait for that,
I think I was made for that,
So I'm comin' in when I feel like,
To turn this mo'fucka up only if it feels right.

What About Next Year?

Mike from River Ave. Blues took a look at the under-utilization of Phil Hughes in the past month or so. Mike issue is with the fact that he hasn't been called on as of late, but I would like to add that the decision not to pitch him echoes into next season as well.

Hughes has pitched 70 1/3 innings for far this year and has been nothing short of excellent since being transitioned from a starter to a reliever. He's thrown about 35 innings in each role so far, but had an ERA of 5.45 as a starter as opposed to 1.26 out of the bullpen. He has great strikeout rates in both, but whiffs almost 3 1/2 more batters per nine when he's used in relief.

It would seem that the transition to high leverage reliever was just what the doctor ordered, but the downside is that Hughes doesn't figure to collect much more than 100 innings this year (if that), including the postseason. So when next year rolls around, he's going to be in almost the exact same spot innings-wise that Joba Chamberlain was in this year. Roughly 100 IP with a cap of 150-160 as a member of the starting rotation.

This reality makes the fact that Girardi has only used Hughes for 8 innings this month all the more puzzling. It's one of the reasons we were hesitant to jump on board the "Hughes to the bullpen" train to begin with. Were he in Scranton or in the rotation, this probably would be a non-issue.

The Yankees will probably tell you they have a plan for Hughes, but I don't think using him for 8 or 10 innings over an entire month despite a clean bill of health was part of that grand scheme. Granted, the Yankees have been involved in a lot of lopsided games both for and against them, so there weren't a lot of obvious occasions for Hughes to be called upon.

However, as manager Joe Girardi should be cognizant of the amount of innings the Phranchise has(n't) thrown and what that is going to mean if he and Brian Cashman truly want to make him a starting pitcher next season. If this means putting him in for an inning or two when the game is out of hand, then so be it. The kid should be on the hill one way or another.

Pete Abe's Stealing Our Schtick

Just kidding. Pete appears to be every bit the music enthusiast we are, but I have to admit, he came up with one today that I had never heard of.

The whole Brill Building / Tin Pan Alley type stuff is sort of a forgotten part of American music history, but it was really the primary source of popular music between the first wave of rock and roll in the early to mid 1950s and the British Invasion led by the Beatles and the Stones in 1964.

In their farewell concert, The Last Waltz, The Band tried to pay tribute to all periods of their career, and by extension all facets of post-1950 popular music, by inviting guests to represent these different stages and genres. So even though he sticks out like a sore thumb in a game of "one of these things is not the like the others", that's why Neil Diamond is included amongst the likes of Bob Dylan, Eric Clapton, Neil Young, Ronnie Hawkins, Dr. John, and Muddy Waters.

Sorry for yet another music-centric post. I'm out of ideas at the moment and counting the minutes until the weekend gets here.

A Few Lines On Coke

I have to admit, it wasn't until all the Twitter feeds came pouring into yesterday's live chat that I realized just how bad Phil Coke has been of late: 17 ER over his last 15.1 IP. His ERA has ballooned from 2.97 to 5.05 in that stretch.

Some may want to blame this on his over-use, as his 59 appearances are the most on the team by a good margin (Rivera is next with 52), and his 51.2 IP in relief is third behind Alfredo Aceves (61) and Rivera (53). And maybe that has something to do with it, but not very much.

Most of what's happened to Coke over these last 20 outings is just good old statistical correction. As I've stated before, particularly when evaluating relievers, I prefer to look at Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) rather than ERA. As you may recall, FIP is dependent upon the three things pitchers can control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and is then is adjusted to an ERA-like scale.

Unfortunately, I can't find game-by-game logs of Coke's FIP, nor do I have the free time to calculate it at the moment. However, at every point this season that I looked at his numbers, his ERA was outperforming his FIP - by a lot. These past twenty outings have served to correct that gap, so much so that after yesterday, Coke's ERA (5.05) is now worse than his FIP (4.86).

So what's the good news/bad news here? The good news is that the numbers seem to indicate that Coke has at worst leveled off, at best is due for a small improvement. The bad news is that where those numbers stand right are not all that good. The good news is the Coke's strikeout (7.14 per 9) and walk (3.14 per 9) rates are slightly better than the league averages. The bad news is his home run rate (1.57 per 9) is a half home run worse than the league average, and that's what is killing both his FIP and his ERA.

Another number to look at is Coke's batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Evidence has shown that a pitcher has little control over balls in play (which is why FIP is a valuable statistic) and that most pitchers end up having a BABIP close to the league average. Currently, Coke is at .234, far better than the league average of .304. This could suggest that we haven't seen the bottom for Coke yet; if his BABIP regresses to the mean over the final five weeks he could be in for a few more rough outings.

However, given Coke's K and HR rates, I would expect his BABIP to be a bit low. His K rate is higher than the league average, meaning there are fewer balls in play against him. Furthermore, 6.1% of batted balls off Coke are home runs, as opposed to 4.0% for the league. As such, hitters are making contact less against him compared to the league, but when they do, the ball is traveling over the fence far more often. While the latter certainly isn't a good thing, I do think that indicates that Coke's BABIP likely won't get close to the league average by season's end. Besides, any BABIP regression to the mean may be a good thing for Coke, as it could indicate that his gigantic HR rate is dropping off a bit.

So what does it all mean? Phil Coke isn't as good as he appeared to be through most of the summer and isn't as bad as he appears to be right now. He gives up way too many home runs, and Yankee Stadium may have something to do with that (18.2 AB/HR at home, 25 on the road). If he can get his home runs down, his K and BB rates suggest he is a relatively effective pitcher.

Relievers are highly volatile due to the relatively small number of innings the pitch. One or two bad outings, like yesterday or Coke's 0.1 IP 6 ER disaster in Chicago on 8/1, can have a major impact on a reliever's statistics. Despite being a former starter with a decent arsenal of pitches, and despite his numbers being good against right handed batters for most of the season, Joe Girardi has insisted upon using Coke as a match-up lefty for most of the year, with 30 of his 59 appearances lasting less than an inning.

Coke has been pretty high up in the bullpen pecking order for most of the season. He'll need to show some improvement over these last five weeks to justify keeping that status in October. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark more often, he has a good chance at making those improvements.