Game 71: Baby Snakes

The average age of the Arizona Diamondbacks' position players is 26.9. That's a half of a year less than the next two closest teams, the Pirates and the Marlins and two years younger than the league average. With a mean age of 30.3, the typical Yankees position player would have been out of high school before the average D-Back batter got their driver's license (in New York anyway).

The oldest regular stick on Arizona is first baseman Adam LaRoche, who is 30. In addition to the two notable younger brothers of well-known MLB players, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young, and Chris Synder are all regular players in their twenties. Geraldo Parra, who has stepped in to replace the recently-traded Connor Jackson, is just 23 years old as well and playing in his second year in the Bigs.

In nature, baby snakes typically hatch of out eggs, but rattlesnakes (including Diamondbacks) happen to give birth to live young - an apt metaphor for Arizona's offense. Despite their relative youth (or perhaps because of it) they've scored the third most runs in the National League, have hit the most homers, are second in slugging percentage and third in OPS.

Even with an offense that's plenty potent, the Diamondbacks still sit a staggering nine games back in the NL West. How is that possible? Partially because their offense numbers are inflated by their ballpark but mostly because of their horrible pitching staff.

Ian Kennedy, who landed in the desert by way of the trade that Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, has been their best starting pitcher so far, sporting an ERA of 3.60 after 15 starts. Brandon Webb injured his shoulder at the beginning of last year and hasn't been back since, but he can only be blamed for so much of the problem. Tonight's starter, Dan Haren, along with last night's, Rodrigo Lopez, and Edwin Jackson (who was also part of the Granderson deal) have ERA's above 4.50, but it really all comes down to the bullpen.

Their "closer", Chad Qualls, who recently lost his job to Aaron Heilman, is currently sporting an 8.87 ERA after blowing four saves in 16 chances and taking three additional losses beyond that. Don't worry, he's not injured, he just sucks. Of the 14 pitchers to throw in relief for them this year, only two have a positive ERA+: Heilman and Esmerling Vasquez. It's tough to win when you can't hold a lead.

So the Yankees failed on two fronts against Rodrigo Lopez last night, 1) not getting runs off of him and 2) not getting to the bullpen soon enough. Lopez had just 87 pitches heading into the 8th inning, and completed the frame on his 103rd. By the time a D-Backs' reliever got the ball, they had a seven run lead and need only to record three outs. I can understand bats going cold, but patience at the plate shouldn't. Perhaps they were just tired after having flown to Arizona and not gotten a day off and mentally checked out when A.J. Burnett got whacked around like a pinata. Perhaps they got a little more rest last night and are now ready to take care of business.

When they face Dan Haren at 9:40 this evening, the Bombers are going to have to either score some runs off of him, or work up his pitch count and get him out of the game early. And try to limit the baby snakes to less than 10 runs. That would also help.

(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Late at night is when they come out,
(Baby sna-yay-kes),
Sure you know what I'm talkin' about.

[Song notes: Baby Snakes is also the name of a really fucking weird clay-mation movie that Zappa made. Since the game doesn't start until 9:40, here are three parts of it. It's not the full 166 minute director's cut, but I don't think anyone would want to watch that anyway.]

Twenty Fackin' Dollahs

This image just showed up in my inbox and since we have hardly posted anything around here lately, I can't just let this sort of easy content slide.

Youk's charity "Hits For Kids" is trying to make their fiscal year-end goals and have evidently stooped to defacing the currency of the United States of America. Despite this illegal behavior, it really is a good cause, so please donate if you can.

Either that or print out this bill and try to sell it to a Red Sox Fan. Just tell them it's like a regular twenty dollar bill, except othah people wickedly undahestimate how it factahs into the economy and it's way fackin' gritty-ah.

Game 70 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

You know it's bad when the Yankees have such a slim chance of winning, so early in the game that I have to chop down the font for their name in the chart to 14 point just to fit it in.

It was already late and I was already tired, so when A.J. Burnett gave up three home runs in the first fucking inning after he retired the first two batters he faced and sank the Yanks into a 5-0 hole, I took the out I was given and just went to bed. I'm glad I did, because aside from Nick Swisher's triple in the third and a few more garbage time runs, the Yankees hardly got to Rodrigo "I give up a shitload of home runs and am not a very good pitcher" Lopez.

As I sarcastically implied in the chart above, let's hear it for A.J. Burnett folks! He gave up seven runs in four innings, all of which came with two outs. That was his fourth straight loss and he adds Lopez to the list of Brett Cecil, Jake Arietta (making his rookie debut) and Jamie Moyer (doing whatever the opposite of that would be) to the list of pitchers who have beaten him over the stretch of death.

The offense hasn't provided a whole lot of support for Burnett as he's been struggling, but over these last four games, he's 21 runs in 20 innings, so he's setting the bar pretty damn high for them. Add those three longballs he gave up last night to the tally and that's nine of them over this dismal span - very nearly one every other inning. Yes, the Diamondbacks hit a lot of home runs, especially at home, but Burnett hasn't seemed to be able to keep the ball in the park against anyone lately.

This location chart from Brooks Baseball pretty much sums the way he's been pitching over his past few outings. Lots of stuff way off the plate that no one aside from maybe Vlad Guerrero is ever going to offer at, lots of it right down the middle and not much around the edges of the zone. That's pretty much exactly what you don't want to do as a pitcher.

I'm not sure how you'd find this out, but I'm guessing last night was one of the lowest rated games of the year, if not the very lowest. It was a Monday night tilt that started at 10PM and the game was all but over by 10:30. It takes a dedicated fan (who didn't go to three Phish shows over the weekend) and/or someone who lives west of the Mississippi to hang in there until the bitter end last night.

Hey, at least tonight's game starts a half hour earlier - at 9:40 - and Burnett isn't pitching! Andy Pettitte will be taking on Dan Haren.

Game 70: Cursed Diamond

Good evening Fackers. Sorry, once again, for the lack of content of late. We were planning on getting back into the swing of things today until other obligations got in the way.

The Yankees roll into Arizona, papers in hand, for a three game series at Chase Field against the struggling Diamondbacks. Moving to an N.L. park, the Yankees figure to be cautious this week in doling out playing time to their banged up veterans Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada.

A.J. Burnett takes the mound for the Yankees, his foot, bruised by a comebacker in his last start, having passed the test of a bullpen session Saturday. He'll be opposed by Rodrigo Lopez. The Yankees faced Lopez numerous times during his years with the Orioles, and beat him around to the tune of a 5.90 ERA over 126.2 innings. This will be the first time they've faced him since 2007.

2007 was also the last time the Yankees and Diamondbacks faced each other. Overall, this will be the fourth interleague series between the two clubs, and the first in Arizona since 2004. The Yankees are 7-2 against the Snakes in interleague play, and went 2-1 during their series six years ago at what was then Bank One Ballpark.

Of course no one has much of a memory of that 2004 series. For any Yankee fan, the first thought that springs to mind at the mention of the Diamondbacks is the 2001 World Series, when the Yanks went 0-4 at the BoB, failing in two chances to clinch on enemy soil in Games Six and Seven. Looking back on it now, it's still hard to believe: certified Big Game Pitcher Andy Pettitte tipping his pitches and getting absolutely slaughtered in Game Six, and the great Mariano squandering a ninth inning lead in Game Seven.

It was enough to prompt Buster Olney to declare it The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty. I have mixed feelings about that, as the Yankees won five consecutive division titles following that season and made another World Series appearance just two years later, but certainly the end of that 2001 season was the start of a process that saw the stalwarts of the 1996 through 2001 teams move on.

As enjoyable as many parts of that 2001 World Series were, with the Yankees heading back to Chase Field to face the Diamondbacks, it's hard to think of the place as anything but a Diamond Cursed.

I want to shine for you
I want to sparkle too
Just like a diamond cursed
Well you know it don't get worse
You know that I'll save you time
Your trouble now is mine

[Song Notes: Yes, I'm still on a Black Crowes kick, and this is one of my favorites. When I went to see them on their reunion run at the Hammerstein Ballroom five years ago they opened with this one. This video is an acoustic performance, featuring the brothers Robinson as well as guitarist Marc Ford, who is unfortunately no longer with the band.]

-Lineups-

We'll add these later on. Tonight's game starts at 10:10 EDT, the remaining games of the series start at 9:40 EDT. All three are on YES, and nationally, tonight's is on ESPN.

Yankees:
Chad Jennings reports that the Yankees have called up Colin Curtis from Scranton. Curtis had a good Arizona Fall League last year, a strong spring, and was off to a good start in AAA before missing a month with a high ankle sprain. Since coming off the DL he's been seeing a lot of time in center field, which in retrospect may have been an indicator that they were preparing him for this. Brian Cashman said earlier in the year that Curtis would have been under consideration for a promotion if not for his ankle injury. Curtis was not on the 40 man roster, so there may be multiple moves taking place.

[UPDATE 7:20 PM] Chad Moeller isn't listed on the lineup card, so he's likely the departing player. This makes it a clean transaction, as Moeller will be outrighted or DFA'd, opening spots for Curtis on both the 25 and 40 man rosters. The organization will likely look for a way to keep Moeller; he was willing to stick around through two different DFA's in 2008. This is also likely good news about Jorge Posada's ability to catch moving forward, as the the club wouldn't have bid goodbye to Moeller if they weren't confident in Posada's ability to catch on a semi regular basis.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF
A.J. Burnett RHP

Diamondbacks:

Games 67-69: A Trio Of Phish Tunes

During the first installment of the Subway Series back in May, the Yankees lined up Javier Vazquez, Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia and the Mets scheduled Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana for a Friday-Saturday-Sunday set at Citi Field. This time, as the rivalry shifts to the Bronx, the matchups and days of the week will be exactly the same.

Similar to the series the Yanks just completed against the Phillies, they won the most unlikely pitching match up of the previous series against the Metropolitans - the first game - but were doomed by an offense that went cold in the final two contests, scoring just three runs between them.

The two New York teams are in very different places that they were just about a month ago when the Mets were seven games out of the NL East lead and the Yankees were sitting four games in back of the Rays. The Mets, winners of seven straight and eleven of their last twelve, are just a half game behind the Braves. Meanwhile, despite losing two out of three against the Phillies, the Bombers are still even with Tampa with the Red Sox just two games behind them.

As the Yanks have clawed their way back into a first place tie with the Rays, we've taken a bit of a step back in our bloggerly duties. Matt's been busy with his job and I've been working outside, so we've been producing less content during the weeks that we typically aspire to.

I can't keep up with my Google Reader, so the linkarounds have run dry and I've been slacking off on getting up our recaps right after the games are over like we did in the beginning of the year. And when the weekends roll around, we've both been trying to make the most of our summers without worrying too much about what gets posted here. Which is good, because that means that we are treating this like a hobby and not a serious obligation like I have in the past and it's not like most of you stop by frequently outside of the work week anyway.

Well, this is another one of those mail-it-in weekends. I'm going to three Phish shows starting tonight in Hartford and continuing with Saturday and Sunday at the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, so I won't be catching much Yankee baseball much less previewing or recapping it.

Since I am a big Phish fan but can never find a way to work their songs into previews (unless the stars align perfectly) I'm going to throw three songs from live shows from places in New York. If you look hard enough, you might be able to find some significance in the tunes as they relate to the matchups between Yankees and the Mets. If you score some mahlz in the lot and take some pulls of the endochronic skunkfunk, it will all make perfect sense.

Enjoy the games and we'll catch up with you Fackers on Monday morning.

=====

Game 67: Javier Vazquez vs. Hisanori Takahashi

Stealing Time From The Faulty Plan from the show on my birthday last year at Jones Beach (the first time they played it live). It's easy to hate on a band's new material but if you are a Phish fan and don't like this one, you probably aren't being fair. It has some nasty, snarling guitar work and pretty good lyrics to boot.

Gonna steal time from the faulty plan,
Gonna act as though I'm still a man,
Gonna give you one last chance to see,
Gonna shrug demands off of me.

Gonna dream, gonna dream, gonna dream,
Gonna dream, dream of being free.

Gonna steal time from the faulty plan,
Steal time from the faulty plan,
Gonna steal time from the faulty plan,
Steal time from the faulty plan.

Game 68: Phil Hughes vs. Mike Pelfrey

Character Zero from the David Letterman Show on March 5th, 1997.

I was taught a month ago,
To bide my time and take it slow,
But then I learned just yesterday,
To rush and never waste the day,
Well I'm convinced the whole day long,
That all I learn is always wrong,
And things are true that I forget,
But no one taught that to me yet.

Game 69: CC Sabathia vs. Johan Santana

It's Ice from the Roseland Ballroom on May 3rd, 2000.

He's fallen on the ice, it cracks,
Will he plunge in and join me here?
He meets my eyes, to my surprise,
He laughs in full light of my frown,
My double wants to pull me down.

Game 66 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

When the seventh inning began, the game was still in reach for the Yankees with the score sitting at 3-1. Andy Pettitte was facing Carlos Ruiz - who hadn't had a hit since last year's World Series, I believe - and gave up a double to start the inning. Wilson Valdez bunted Chooch over to third and Pettitte walked Shane Victorino (already 2-3 with a homer and another hard hit ball on the night) to get to Chase Utley. Andy proceeded to walk him as well to load the bases.

The game looked to be spiraling out of control for Pettitte and the Yanks but Placido Polanco hit a weak grounder to first that, unlike the one in fourth inning on Tuesday night, Mark Teixeira threw home to get the force. Ryan Howard then came to the plate and after starting him out with a ball, Pettitte got him to foul off a curve, then a change before striking him out swinging on a cutter down and in.

Pettitte and Cervelli both let out fistpumps after they wriggled out of the jam and for a moment it felt like the Yankees were about to come back. The offense, aside from Robinson Cano, had been largely dormant to that point, but the optimist in my thought they could pull together a rally and salvage a series victory.

Brett Gardner led off the bottom of the seventh and took four pitches, two of them balls and two of them strikes. He then fouled back three straight before ripping a line drive almost directly at Ryan Howard. Francisco Cervelli then worked another excellent at bat, running the count full before pulling a rocket down the left field line that only missed the foul pole by a couple of feet. He ultimately hit a sharp grounder to third that Placido Polanco snared and threw to first for the out. And it was all downhill from there. Kendrick fell behind Ramiro Pena 3-0 but got him to ground out to end the inning.

Both teams went down 1-2-3 in the eighth and Joba Chamberlain took the hill to start the ninth. He gave up a double, and single and a walk and was pulled from the game before he could record an out. Damaso Marte was next and allowed two walks and two sac flies but was removed despite left hander Raul Ibanez due up and the Yanks already down five runs. Chan Ho Park was summoned but only fanned the flames, allowing an RBI double to Ibanez. The Yanks only got out of the inning because Ibanez may or may not have been hit by a ball off the bat of Ben Francisco in the process of advancing to third.

All told, the Phils plated four runs in the ninth, and what was an insurmountable deficit heading into the frame was now essentially impossible to overcome. The Yanks went down in order anyway to complete the loss and give the Phillies the series victory.

After winning the first game of this set, the Yanks' offense in particular spit the bit in the final two. They managed only seven baserunners last night and six tonight, for a grand total of four runs - half of them driven in by Cano. That's just not enough support to give your pitching staff.

The second installment of the Subway Series starts tomorrow night and the Yanks welcome the Mets to the Bronx this time and Javy Vazquez squares off against Hisanori Takahashi.

Game 66: Old Man

Andy Pettitte takes the mound tonight for the first time since last Friday and he finds himself a year older, having completed his thirty eighth revolution of the sun on Tuesday. Originally, Pettitte was to square off against Jamie Moyer tonight, but the Phillies decided to shuffle their rotation earlier in the week, starting Moyer last night and pushing Kyle Kendrick to tonight.

That of course robs us of a whole host of paint by number story lines for the game, as at some point since his return to the Bronx more than three years ago, the veteran Pettitte has officially graduated to crafty lefty status, and veteran lefties don't come any craftier than the 47 year old Moyer.

Tempting as the Pettitte-Moyer comparisons may be, in truth the two have little in common other than their handedness and their relatively advanced ages. Pettitte reached the Majors as a 23 year old and virtually immediately presented himself as a front of the rotation workhorse. Moyer debuted at the same age, but scuttled through six seasons, four organizations, and several stints as a minor leaguer (including the majority of 1991, the entirety of 1992, and the start of 1993), before finally establishing himself as a 30 year old number five starter on the 1993 Orioles. As a point of comparison, by age 30 Pettitte had logged nearly 1,500 Major League innings and appeared in five World Series.

But as two of the three oldest starting pitchers in Major League Baseball and two of the three with more 3000 career innings pitched, the comparisons are inevitable. And as Pettitte's late career renaissance produces his best season in at least five years and a likely All-Star appearance, it's tempting to look at Moyer and see a guy who made his only All-Star appearance and had arguably his best season at age 40 in 2003 and has won 101 games since.

Of course, Pettitte's pitching arsenal is a little flashier than Moyer's slow-slower-slowest fastball, cutter, change routine, but it's tempting to look at Pettitte's repeated Houdini acts in pitching himself into and out of jams over the past few years and wonder why he couldn't continue to pull it off for another five or eight years. But considering that he's seriously contemplated retirement in each of the previous four off-seasons, a Moyer-esque forties just doesn't seem to be in the cards for Pettitte.

Be that as it may, of far greater to concern to Pettitte and the Yankees tonight is the rubber game against the Phillies. After improbably knocking around Roy Halladay on Tuesday night, the combination of a clunker from A.J. Burnett and Moyer's best Gandalf the White routine last night left the series tied at one. It seems as if Pettitte finds himself in more than his share of these rubber games, but he hasn't pitched a true rubber game since the season's opening series. He tossed six innings of one run ball in Boston that night, but didn't factor in the decision as the Yanks won in extra innings. He last start before that came at Yankee Stadium, in Game Six of the World Series, when he closed out the Phillies. Here's hoping he can pitch a lot like Moyer last night, stymie the Phillie bats, and close out a successful series against them once again.

Old man look at my life
I'm a lot like you were
Old man look at my life
I'm a lot like you were

[Song Notes: From his 1972 album Harvest, Neil Young wrote "Old Man" as a tribute to the old rancher who take care of his Broken Arrow Ranch in northern California. The studio recording featured both James Taylor and Linda Ronstadt]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Alex Rodriguez is in the lineup for the second straight night and remains the DH. After catching for just the second time in a month, Jorge Posada gets the night off.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 3B

LHP Andy Pettitte

Phillies:

Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Placido Polanco 3B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Ben Francisco DH
Carlos Ruiz C
Wilson Valdez SS

RHP Kyle Kendrick

Changes To Stadium Football Schedule

This homestand marks the first games at Yankee Stadium since the first non-baseball event at the park, the Miguel Cotto - Yuri Foreman fight on June 5th. While the boxing ring is long gone, the Stadium has a few souvenirs from the event, including noticeably worn patches of grass in center field, where the ring was located.

The Stadium will host another in-season, non-baseball event before 2010 is over, as Jay-Z and Eminem will perform the venue's first concert on September 13th. Following that, the next non-baseball event will occur on November 20th, when Army hosts Notre Dame in the first football game at the new Stadium.

Lost amongst all the potential conference realignment news that shook the foundation of college football last week were a couple notes relating to future football games at Yankee Stadium. First, last week Notre Dame quietly canceled their scheduled 2013 game against Army, which was penciled in as being a Yankee Stadium game. That cancellation may or may not be an indicator that the long-independent Fighting Irish were positioning themselves to finally join a conference in the event of a BCS superconference armageddon.

While one of the linked articles above speculates that Syracuse could replace Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Army's 2013 schedule, it's also possible that one of the principle movers and shakers in last week's conference realignments could be Army's opponent. Prior to leaving the Big XII to join the Pac-10 last week, Colorado made it clear that they wanted to play Army at Yankee Stadium. The Buffs' non-conference schedule had been booked through 2015, but with their move to the Pac-10 altering future schedules and with Army now having an open date in 2013, they may be able to get their wish sooner rather than later.

After hosting Notre Dame this fall, Army will host Rutgers at the Stadium in 2011, Air Force in 2012, and Boston College in 2014. In addition to the annual Army game, Yankee Stadium will also host the New Era Pinstripe Bowl for at least the next four years. The game will take place between Christmas and New Year's, and will match the third selection from the Big East against the sixth selection from the Big XII. No word yet as to how the Big XII's reduction to ten teams will impact the bowl's future. The inaugural game will take place on December 30th this year, with tickets already on sale.

New AJ, Same As The Old AJ

Back on April 30th, A.J. Burnett was sporting a nifty 2.43 ERA and had picked up three wins in his first five starts. After a dominant outing against the Orioles he talked about learning to pitch to contact, so we asked if he had altered his approach:

Traditionally a guy with a propensity to both strikeout and walk a lot of batters, A.J. has seen both of those rates drop to roughly 2/3 of their career norms. At the same time, he's given up more hits, is throwing slightly more strikes and is getting more outs on the ground.

About 3/4 of the pitches Burnett has thrown in 2010 have been fastballs, a proportion that he hasn't approached since his days with the Marlins.

Despite discovering his curveball somewhere along the way and tossing 7 1/3 strong innings his next time out, in his nine starts since then, Burnett's ERA is 5.50 and his record is 3-5. He's had four starts in which he's surrendered more than six runs, while in his first five outings the most he allowed in any outing was four.

A.J.'s still throwing over 70% fastballs, about 60% of all his pitches for strikes, inducing ground balls and allowing line drives at roughly the same rates (just under 50% and around 17%, respectively). So what has the difference been? Let's take a look at his rate stats:

Burnett's strikeout and walk rates have unsurprisingly returned close to his career norms and a slightly higher BABIP has led to an increase in hits per nine. But even all of those things in conjunction shouldn't cause his ERA to more than double. The real culprits (highlighted in red on the chart) are his home run and strand rates.

In 31 1/3 innings at the beginning of the season, Burnett had allowed just one long ball. In the 54 innings he's pitched since then, he's given up nine of them. To put it another way, he gave up home runs almost six times more often during his last nine starts than he did in his first five.

The league average stand rate is 72%. Burnett was very fortunate in that department early in the season but has been rather unlucky since. Of course, the fact that runners have stolen 19 bases off him and only been caught three times certainly isn't helping in that department.

Clearly, Burnett hasn't pitched as well since the beginning of May as he did before that. Home runs involve a certain amount of luck but a six-fold increase tells us that Burnett has been leaving plenty more balls out over the plate and hitters have been capitalizing on his mistakes. His strand rate has also been dragged down by all those long balls as well.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Burnett caught a lot of breaks early in April and saw his luck even out in a major way in the past month and a half. His home run rate won't stay as high as it has been and his strand rate will regress towards league average as the season continues. If you look at his expected FIP (based on batted ball types allowed) on FanGraphs, it's just about the same during his great stretch as it is throughout his awful one.

It's boring to say, and again this is pretty self-evident, but the true A.J. Burnett lies somewhere between the Cy Young candidate that showed up in April and the replacement level scrub that has been serving up 'tater salad since then. If he can lean just a little towards the former from here on in, he and the Yankees will be just fine.

Game 65 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

This game was pretty much the inverse of last night's. The biggest hit was an second inning triple by the center fielder and the losing pitcher gave up six runs before being yanked. Each game was close for about two-thirds of a second later on but was pretty much decided by the end of the third. The difference was that last night A.J. Burnett wasn't getting unlucky, and unlike Roy Halladay, had to be pulled from the game in the fourth.

There's no sugar coating it, Burnett was terrible last night. Just about half of his pitches were out of the strike zone - 39 of them in 3 1/3 innings, to be exact. He allowed more men to reach base (11) than he retired (10) and gave up a triple and two homers. He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with his curveball.

A.J. dug his own grave in the second inning as he walked two guys and gave up two singles before running the count to 3-1 on Shane Victorino. Since Burnett's aforementioned Uncle Charlie didn't show up, he ended up and feeding Victorino a meatball smack dab in the middle of the plate, about dinner table-height. All that was missing was a fork, some spaghetti and some spicy tomato oil and some bread to mop up after it.

The coupe de grace came during the fourth inning when Chase Utley smoked a ball down the first base line that Mark Teixeira fielded and got ready to toss to first - except Burnett wasn't there to cover the bag. The crowd erupted in a loud chorus of boos and Burnett was yanked before he had a chance to face another batter.

There were some good pitching performances last night as well. The only baserunner Boone Logan allowed in his 2 2/3 innings was an intentional walk to Jayson Werth, which was a direct result of him having to clean up A.J. Burnett's mess. Chad Gaudin was just as good, pitching perfect 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Of course, Jamie Moyer was excellent as well. He gave up only three hits and a single walk in eight innings, but two of the hits were solo homers by Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, so it doesn't look quite as dominant in the box score as it actually was. The Yanks brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the ninth against Brad Lidge but Posada struck out on a slider to end the game.

Andy Pettitte faces Kyle Kendrick tonight as the Yanks try to salvage a series victory and forget about the turd A.J. Burnett just laid.

Game 65: Slow Train Coming

I'm not sure what's more mindboggling, the fact that Jamie Moyer is still pitching in the Major Leagues at age 47 or that, ever since they've been tracking with PitchFX, his fastball has been clocked at speeds roughly between A.J. Burnett's curveball and slider.

In a lot of ways, Moyer is the inverse of what Burnett used to be. When he was with the Marlins, Burnett used to throw hard for the sake of throwing hard and lighting up the radar gun, strike a lot of guys out but also walk a ton of them too. He was a young, tall, menacing presence on the mound for a team in Southern Florida. Meanwhile, Moyer was already well over a decade into his MLB career, an average-sized and easy-going type, pitching in the opposite corner of the country, left handed, throwing in the low 80's and just trying to hit his spots.

Still, their level of performance was pretty similar. From 1999-2005, Burnett had an ERA+ of 111. Moyer? 110. They both struck out about twice as many as they walked, but Burnett was giving out four free passes per nine innings while Moyer was allowing just 2.2. Their WHIPs during that span were a very similar 1.284 and 1.258.

Before last Friday, Moyer and Burnett each had six wins and ERAs under 4.00 on the season. However, Moyer got absolutely hammered in Fenway, allowing nine runs in 1+ IP and raising his ERA a full run in the process.

Burnett hasn't exactly had a smooth go of it as of late, either. He's given up 13 runs in his past three starts against Cleveland, Toronto and Baltimore and hasn't turned in a so-called quality outing in over a month (the five shutout innings he threw in the rain-delayed affair against the Twins not withstading). After sporting an ERA under 2.00 through his first six starts, Burnett has tallied a 5.61 mark over his next seven, raising his overall tally to a much-higher-but-still-respectable 3.86. The lefty-heavy Phillies lineup - as anemic as it has been lately - isn't likely to provide much of a relief for A.J.

The same could be said for the Yankee hitters in relation to Moyer. The Bombers tagged Roy Halladay for three homers and six runs last night but are going to be seeing a wildly different look from the crafty lefty on the hill this evening. Look out boys, the slow (and slower) train is coming.

They say loose your inhibitions, follow your own ambitions
They talk about a life of brotherly love,

show me someone who knows how to live it,
There's slow, slow train coming up around the bend.

[Song Notes: Matt here with the song notes. "Slow Train Coming" is a Bob Dylan song, and was the title track to his controversial 1979 album of the same name. The album was Dylan's first release since announcing his conversion as a Born Again Christian, and most of the songs on the album have some element of spirituality to them. The above performance comes from the North Mississippi Allstars at the 2007 Newport Folk Festival.

As Jay detailed last year, it was at Newport where Dylan became embroiled in the first major controversy of his career, as he played his notorious first electric set at the 1965 Festival. The 2007 Festival was also distinctively un-folk, as the NMA set was sandwiched after the John Butler Trio, and before Gov't Mule and the Allman Brothers Band. Perhaps as a nod to the non-traditional line up that year, but certainly as a nod to Dylan, NMA wove a mini-Dylan set into their performance that day, playing Dylan's "Masters of War", "Oxford Town", and "Slow Train Coming"

I was at that show, and if I recall correctly, I was standing just to the right of the guy filming it (and no, I am not of the shirtless hippy dancers in the video). This was the second of seven NMA shows I saw in a ten day period that summer, and it was a very cool trip. Newport was great - right on the water, excellent views, a great line up. That was also the day Alex Rodriguez hit his 500th career HR.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: A-Rod comin', yo. After five games out of the lineup, A-Rod's groin or thigh or whatever injury has apparently healed up enough for him to return. He'll be eased back into action with an appearance at DH as Jorge Posada tries catching after being removed a bit early from Sunday's game. Kevin Russo is playing third base and hitting eighth but this is the closest the Yanks line up has been to Opening Day form in quite some time.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Kevin Russo 3B
Brett Gardner LF

Phillies:

Victorino CF
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Werth RF
Ibanez LF

Dobbs, DH
Schneider C
Valdez SS

The Merits Of A Pitcher's Stats Against One Team

Mike from The Yankeeist has some strong words for the way media built up the return of Roy Halladay last night:

The problem wasn't the hype itself, but how it was justified. There should be pregame excitement anytime the Yankees face a pitcher who is having the kind of season Doc is having. But the game was sold to fans on the basis of Halladay's career numbers against the Yankees. This kind of sloppy journalism is prevalent in the baseball media, and should be criticized.

I think not citing Halladay's career numbers would have been a far more egregious error. It's a valid storyline. He'd pitched more than a full season's worth against the Yankees in his career and had great results. How do you not bring that up?

Of course, as Mike goes on to explain, even though Doc had thrown a ton of innings to the Yanks, the numbers he compiled don't really mean anything:

The baseball media frequently cites a player's career performance against a given team to provide insight into how that player should do right now against that same team. This makes no sense. Sticking with the current example, Roy Halladay has been logging time in the AL East since 1998. How, exactly, do his numbers against Scott Brosius or Jason Giambi help understand what he can be expected to do when he faces the Yankees in 2010? The answer, of course, is that they can't, but baseball struggles to grasp this.

In addition to the Yankee lineup fluctuating, the defense behind Halladay has constantly shifted, the turf underneath him in Toronto has changed, he's thrown to tons of different catchers and most importantly, he's evolved as a pitcher. Essentially, what you are looking at when you try to analyze Halladay's career stats against the Yankees (or any pitcher's line against a certain team) are a bunch of very small samples, recorded over a very long time, and smushed together to look like one big one. And, by the way, looking at his career numbers against the Yankees tells you the same thing that looking at his overall numbers tell you - Roy Halladay is like, really awesome at pitching.

But there's two parts to this - the validity of the stats and how they are being used. Mike calls it "sloppy journalism", but that strikes me as a sort of hollow, straw man argument. Its' not like it's factually incorrect. Halladay has owned the Yankees and you can bet that the players in the clubhouse are keenly aware of it. Why then shouldn't the media talk about it? It doesn't have predictive value, but no one I care to read was trying to predict what the outcome of the game would be anyway. It was one of things that was ubiquitously noted because, well, it was worth noting.

Did anyone guarantee that Halladay was going to turn in a great game? I'm not aware of such a proclamation. I think most Yankee fans sort of braced for impact (like Mike's co-author at the Yankeeist, Larry did) simply because after seeing it happen so many times, it's a natural reaction.

So why do we fans have the desire read about games before they happen? Why do we bother to write a preview for all 162 of them here? It's rare that something your read beforehand will manifest itself in the game in a meaningful way, isn't it?

In general, we are all probably a little anxious for the game to start and reading about it helps pass the time. We love the team and find that harnessing some of that anticipation and reading up on an impending game helps us look forward to it.

More specifically, when I write a preview or read one that someone else has written, it's because I want to have an understanding of any trends and storylines coming in and try to develop some sort of a framework that will make what's unfolding on the field a little more coherent and interesting to me. Some of those things might be statistical, but the personalities and rivalries and the who-owns-who are compelling in their own way, even if they don't pass the statistical smell test.

Game 64 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

On an ordinary night against Roy Halladay, the rough patch that CC Sabathia hit in the fourth might have been enough to put the Yankees behind for the rest of the night.

The Big Fella had allowed only one walk and struck out six the first time through the order but things started going awry when Chase Utley chopped one right back over Sabathia's head that he could only deflect with his pitching hand out of reflex (he seems to do this more often than most pitchers, no?). Placido Polanco then looped a soft flare up the middle just out of CC's reach, Ryan Howard got hit with a 1-2 pitch and the Phillies were in business - bases loaded with no one out. Jayson Werth poked the first pitch he saw through the left side to get the Phillies on the board. Raul Ibanez fell behind 0-2 before fighting back bring the count full and ground one to right field to give the Phils their second run.

With the bases still loaded, Ben Francisco grounded a ball softly to Mark Teixeira in what looked like enough time for Teix to come home with the throw and get the force out. Instead, he went to second base apparently looking to start a double play but Sabathia didn't make it to first to cover, seemingly surprised that Teix didn't try to stop the runner from scoring. That third run was all the Phillies would get across in the game or the inning as CC struck out Juan Castro and Carlo Ruiz grounded out to end the threat.

On many nights, three runs seems like an impossible task against Halladay. Fortunately, the Yanks offense had already spotted Sabathia five in the first three innings. Brett Garnder slashed a two run triple in the second and Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher both took Doc deep in the third. Mark Teixeira also went yard in the fifth on a sky high pop up that kept carrying towards the right field foul pole and snuck out right by the camera stand.

Halladay had allowed just three home runs all year long and the Yankees doubled that total in a span of three innings. It's not like he was just throwing meatballs - the pitch Granderson went deep on was well down and in - but he left an inordinate number of fastballs over the middle of the plate. His typical movement just wasn't there and the Yanks went to town. Due in part to a 29 pitch second inning, Halladay was at 100 through six innings and that was it.

The Yanks were lucky to catch a great pitcher on an off night and if it wasn't for some tough breaks for CC in the fourth, this one never would have been in doubt. The Yanks look to keep the ball rolling tonight as the significantly less intimidating Jamie Moyer squares up against A.J. Burnett.