162 > 3: In Defense Of Ron Gardenhire

Postseason baseball can be a thrilling month-long adventure, or it could be a terrible trip that lasts less than a week. A six month season will be judged on what happens to a team against top-tier competition under pressure-packed conditions in what can be as few as three games. Some players who have a terrible year can totally redeem themselves with a few big hits in a postseason series while others who have done yeoman's work since April can turn into a goat because of a split-second reaction in the outfield, one pitch left over the plate or a feeble at-bat with runners in scoring position.

The same goes for managers. A skipper can be viewed as a genius or a dummy after the fact, based on how he aligned his rotation, filled out his lineup card or inserted his relievers into a game. Or in this case, just the end results of three games against a superior team.

Take it away, David Pinto:

FIRE RON GARDENHIRE

Ron Gardenhire has now lost 12 straight playoff games. He’s been swept by the Yankees two years in a row. If he were the Yankees manager, he would have been fired last season. I really don’t care how well the team has done under him.

I believe what Pinto is trying to get at here is that he doesn't care how they've done during the regular season under Gardenhire, which of course is incredibly stupid. Regardless of how much you think a manager can influence a baseball game, 162 of them tells you a whole lot more about someone's abilities as a manager than three nights in October do.

Managers just don't have the ability to affect games over the short term, unless they want to pick a pitcher from High-A ball to start Game 1 of the series, pencil players into the wrong defensive positions and order them to bat from the opposite side of the plate they are accustomed to. Good managers are skilled at steering the ship over a interminable season and making good decisions that will work out well in the long run, but simply can't exert much pressure in the span of three games without trying to throw the series.

I'm sure losing 12 straight playoff games absolutely sucks for the Twins' organization and their fanbase, but what does the 2004 ALDS have to do with the series that concluded last night? Do you know how many players started games for the Twins in both series? Two. Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel, and they might actually be the same person.

Pinto's not done yet:

The Twins team is good, but they need to be sent a message that getting swept every year is unacceptable. Firing Gardenhire will send that message.

I'm pretty sure that the Twins are aware that getting swept every year in unacceptable. Does this look like a bunch of dudes who are thrilled to be starting their offseason already?

What exactly has Gardenhire done to deserve being fired? What thing that was under his control did he screw up? Did he start someone that deserved to be benched? Was it the way he set up the starting rotation? A boneheaded bullpen move?

It's not any of those, of course. Pinto is just judging Gardy in black and white terms, which is something that a casual fan or George Steinbrenner at his most impulsive would do, not someone who goes by the Twitter handle @StatsGuru.

It's not like Gardenhire has some "Marty Ball" scheme and manages differently in the playoffs. It's not as if he has a pregame ritual wherein he runs around the clubhouse wearing only an unbuttoned Harmon Killebrew jersey screaming at the top of his lungs, which renders his pitching staff incapable of holding a lead.

The Twins, however, need someone ruthless in the playoffs who can find a way to win not only a game, but a series.

What "ruthless" mystery manager is going to be able to lead the Twins to postseason glory and by what means? Should we exhume John McGraw so he can get into a fistfight with an umpire? Perhaps an undead Gus Schmeltz would be willing to whip every fielder who makes an error with a riding crop and force the team to take batting practice using a lead pipe and jagged rocks.

Because THAT would send a message, goddammit. And that message would read, "The Minnesota Twins don't understand the concept of small sample sizes or the role that luck can play in a short playoff series, so they fired one of the best managers in baseball in favor of a sadistic zombie. Muthaphuckkkazzz1!!!!!"

Game 46: Sister Luck

The Yanks and Twins close out their three game series tonight. Javier Vazquez will take the mound for the Yankees, making just his third start in the last twenty six days. After a rough beginning to his second go round in pinstripes, Vazquez has been markedly improved over his last two starts, allowing just ten baserunners and two runs while striking out thirteen over thirteen innings. In between, he made a relief appearance and picked up an easy win by fanning the only batter he faced.

Vazquez banged up his right index finger in his last start, bloodying the digit in a sacrifice bunt attempt at Citi Field. It was enough to force his early exit from that game, but he showed no ill effects during his bullpen session earlier this week. He's been deemed good to go tonight.

Nick Blackburn gets the start for the Twins. He was the starting pitcher in the series finale in New York the weekend before last, going seven innings and surrendering three runs on nine hits and a walk. It was enough for Blackburn to earn the win after the Yankee bullpen coughed up the game in the eighth inning. He followed that with 7.1 IP of three run ball against the Brewers last Friday, getting another win to run his 2010 record to 5-1.

Barring their fourth playoff meeting in the last eight seasons, this will be the final game between the Yankees and Twins this year. Since taking the helm in 2002, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has been very successful, posting a .547 winning percentage and capturing five AL Central flags. But the Yankees have been his personal kryptonite.

Gardenhire is just 15-45 against the Yankees over the past eight plus seasons, not including his 2-9 mark against them in post-season play. His Twins lost their first 13 games against the Yankees, going winless in 2002 and 2003, and dropped 17 of 19 from 2002 through 2004. Through yesterday, they're just 7-22 against the Yanks since the start of the 2007 season.

Those are some pretty staggering numbers, but they don't begin to tell the tail of how things have been between these teams since the start of last season. In that time, including last year's ALDS, the Yankees are 14-1 against the Twins. The one loss came only after Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera combined for a two out eighth inning meltdown nearly two weeks ago, a game in which the Yankees had a 87% chance of winning with just four outs to go.

But of the 14 wins the Yankees have had, seven have been by a lone run. Two more have been by just two runs. Four of them are of the walkoff variety, three of them in extra innings. Over those 15 games, the Yankees have scored 78 runs and allowed 44, which equates to a pythagorean record 11-4, or three games worse than they've done in actuality against the Twins over the past year plus.

Yet even that doesn't tell the whole story. Aside from winning close games and outplaying the run differential, the Yanks have gotten an inordinate number of breaks: Phil Cuzzi's blown call on Joe Mauer's would-be double in Game Two of the ALDS. A-Rod's clutch game tying home run in the ninth inning of that same game - when the Yankees started the inning with 10% win expectancy. David Robertson's Houdini act to escape a bases loaded, no one out jam in the eleventh inning of that game. Game changing base running gaffes by Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto changing the tenor of Games Two and Three. J.J. Hardy's potential game tying blast dying on the warning track yesterday afternoon. Andy Pettitte wriggling out of jams in the seventh and eighth inning yesterday.

It's a wealth of good luck and more than anyone has a right to expect over fifteen games. For one more night at least, the Yanks hope that Sister Luck doesn't start screaming out the Twins name.

Sister Luck is screaming out
Somebody else's name

[Song Notes: "Sister Luck" appeared on the Black Crowes debut album Shake Your Money Maker. It's been twenty years since that's been released and apparently the Crowes have decided this is a good time as any to take a little break. They'll be touring hard through the end of the year and then going on an indefinite hiatus. Part of that saddens me as this is a band that I've really enjoyed through the years. I'm going to try to catch a few shows before the year is out, starting next Friday on the Cape.

On the other hand, I suppose it's a good thing that they're calling it quits on relatively good terms, especially considering their often acrimonious history. Plus, their hiatus will allow Luther Dickinson to focus fully on the North Mississippi Allstars again, which can only be a good thing. And with any luck, just as they did after their 2001 hiatus, the Crowes will decide to come back after a few years, and do it with Marc Ford and Eddie Harsch back in the band.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
After a one game absence, Brett Gardner returns to the two spot, with Nick Swisher going back to sixth in the order. Juan Miranda gets the nod at DH after crushing a long, loud out in a pinch hitting appearance last night. Francisco Cervelli starts his tenth straight game behind the dish and Kevin Russo gets his fourth straight start in left field and fifth in the last six games.

Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Juan Miranda DH
Francisco Cervelli C
Kevin Russo LF

Twins:

Span CF

Hudson 2B

Mauer C

Morneau 1B

Thome DH

Cuddyer RF

Kubel LF

Hardy SS

Casilla 3B

Girardi Bends The Rules, Probably Didn't Have To

Good morning, Fackers. One of the details I didn't cover in last night's recap (which I will attribute to the combination of the extreme heat and my lack of an air conditioner) was that the Yankees tried to pull a bit of a fast one to begin the bottom of the ninth inning.

Since Nick Swisher's go-ahead home run came with two outs in the top half of the inning and Mark Teixeira made an out three pitches later trying to leg out a double, Mariano Rivera had barely any time to warm up before he came in to protect the one run lead.

With the lefty Justin Morneau up and Andy Pettitte having thrown only 94 pitches, it seemed plausible that Girardi would let Andy stay in for at least one more batter. However, he let Pettitte take the mound and throw his warm up pitches only to remove him without facing a batter when the inning was about to resume, thereby securing an extra eight or so pitches for Rivera.

When it happened last night, Matt voiced his objections on The Twitters, saying:

This is a pet peeve of mine. If a pitcher takes the mound at the start of an inning, he should have to face 1 batter unless there's a PH.

It turns out that Ron Gardenhire is of the same opinon (via BBTF):

Asked if he ever thought Pettitte actually would throw a pitch in the ninth, Gardenhire said, "No, he wasn't going to throw a pitch. That was kind of tired, to tell you the truth. You don't know normally get that long between innings to do all that, but we know what's going on there."

"That's a situation Major League Baseball needs to take care of when stuff like that happens. You don't have a guy ready in the bullpen, if your starter goes out there, he should have to face a hitter. That's just the way it should be. If you don't get a guy up, that's the way it should be, unless the other team makes a change."

"But that's not what lost the game for us. That's stuff that just gets old right there."

This is somewhat similar to the issue that Joe Girardi protested the game against the Red Sox about. The difference is that Girardi was taking advantage of a loophole in the rules whereas the Sox didn't have any ulterior motives but made a slight procedural error.

I think this transaction speaks to a larger issue, though. The one of Girardi feeling like he absolutely needed Rivera for all three outs despite the fact that he pitched earlier in the day. Would it have been the worst thing in the world if Pettitte, who had pitched pretty damn well and was still very effective in the inning before, faced one left handed batter and gave Mo the appropriate amount of time to get ready?

I often struggle to understand Girardi's moves as a manager but I've found one tendency that he is incredibly consistent in displaying. If the game is tight, he will exert every ounce of control over it that he can. Like in the seventh inning of the game Javy Vazquez started against the Mets when Joe went through three pitchers before they got two outs despite the fact that there were still two more innings left to pitch. Just yesterday, he didn't want to announce who would be pitching when the first game resumed because then the Twins could have... um... I don't know, done something with that information, maybe?

Honestly, part of the reason that this kind of stuff frustrates me is that I hate commercial breaks and Girardi makes so damn many mid-inning pitching changes it's like he has a clause in his contract that gives him a percentage of the ad revenue. Those are usually the times when the game is on the line and we all have to sit through two minutes and thirty seconds of shitty advertising because the other team's backup catcher is left handed.

Clearly his bullpen management has been one of Girardi's strengths in his time with the Yankees but that's partially because he has Rivera as a rock at the end of it. What's going to happen when someone less trustworthy is responsible for nailing down saves? Will he still sit on his hands and watch things unfold?

During that game against the Mets I likened Girardi with a slim lead to a kid holding a pet rabbit. He holds it like a vise grip because he doesn't want to let it get away. But sometimes he ends up strangling it in the process. You want your manager to do what he can to win every single game, but was it necessary to rush Rivera and make sure that he was in there for all three outs given that he had pitched earlier in the day? If there's any chance that he's nursing an injury or could have hurt himself as a result, the answer is obviously "no".

Don't Worry About The Yanks, Ron

Good morning, Fackers. Whether the gap between the highest and lowest grossing teams in baseball is widening, narrowing or staying the say depends largely on where you stand. To wit, here is Ron Gardnehire talking about his Twins in relation to the Yankees:

"When you look at the Yankees, their lineup stretches seven and eight-deep of all-stars," said Gardenhire, who was speaking at the Quality Inn in Winona on Tuesday as part of the Twins' annual Winter Caravan. "We're getting closer to that now. You look at our lineup, and we're almost to the point now where we've got six or seven guys that are all-star-caliber people."

Last year, Minnesota had 5 players who got more than 350 plate appearances and had an OPS+ of 91 or lower. The Yankees, on the other hand, had 9 players with over 430 plate appearances and Melky Cabrera was the least potent, with a 99 OPS+. The Twins brought in shortstop J.J. Hardy (career OPS+ 95), but I don't think many would consider him "all-star-caliber" although he did sneak onto the NL roster in 2007.

How about pitching? The Yankees team ERA was a quarter of a run lower than the Twins' last year, and the Yanks also picked up Javier Vazquez, who would probably compete with Nick Blackburn for the top spot in Minnesota's rotation.

I know Gardenhire is in the business of being optimistic about his team, but it's pretty clear that the Yankees were a whole lot better than the Twins last year and the gap, if anything, is widening. The Yankees have just as many resources as they've always had and Brain Cashman has been deploying them awfully efficiently as of late.

Peter Gammons notes this fact in an article on MLB.com this morning when he says "general manager Brian Cashman has turned his club into an efficient organizational model that has depth running through the system".

Rob Neyer, riffing off that article from Gammons talks about "the plight of small market franchises" and explains that there aren't enough good markets to house all 30 MLB teams. But Minneapolis is one of those good markets. It has 3.5 million people - making it the 13th largest media market in the country - and they are moving into a new ballpark next year.

The important thing to note is that the Twins don't have the same problem that the Rays, Orioles or Blue Jays do. They don't need to close to gap between them and the Yankees. They play in a division that has 4 small to moderate payroll teams and one current big spender that's in the process of coming back down to earth (Detroit). They haven't had much success in the playoffs despite winning their division 5 times in the past 8 years, but that has more to do with luck that the disparity between them and the Yanks.

With Target Field set to open this April and the walleye-on-a-stick scheduled to hit the fry-o-lators shortly thereafter, the Twins are primed to continue their dominance of the AL Central. The new revenue will certainly help them compete with the likes of the Tigers, White Sox and the Indians, but they are going to have to put a huge chunk of that money into action if they are going to get discernibly "closer" to the Yankees. Locking up Joe Mauer long term would certainly be a good start.