Game 33: We've Got Tonight

After tying their longest winning streak of the season at six, the Yanks have lost three straight and are now in the midst of their lengthiest losing skid of 2010. Tonight they look to stop the bleeding and salvage a chance at halving the series with Detroit.

Their hopes rest with Phil Hughes as he gets the ball for the sixth time this season tonight. Last time out he picked up the win behind seven strong innings of two run ball in Boston, although with the implosion by Josh Beckett giving up just two was overkill.

In his previous five starts, Hughes has been nothing short of excellent, allowing just six runs in 32 innings while striking out 31 and allowing 30 baserunners. His FIP of 2.77 and xFIP of 3.86 are quite a bit higher than his ERA of 1.86, based on a high strand rate (84%), low BABIP (.213) and tiny HR/FB (2.9%).

The last time Hughes was in Detroit was during his first start of last year and he pitched six shutout innings, allowing two hits and two walks. The game was tied heading into the seventh but the Yankees dropped 10 runs in the top half of the inning and blew the game wide open. Not really relevant to tonight's game but fun to look back on.

Righthanded Moneyballer Jeremy Bonderman takes the mound for the Tigers this evening. After missing the better part of the the past two years due to blood clots in his Axillary Vein and subsequent pain in his pitching shoulder, Bonderman is back in the Tigers rotation this season.

He carries a 5.74 ERA but his peripheral numbers suggest that he should be doing much better (3.50 FIP). However, his numbers don't include the game he started against the Indians on Saturday which got cancelled in the fourth inning with the Tigers leading 7-6. A nasty thunderstorm saved Bonderman from an ugly line as he gave up six consecutive hits before getting pulled during the third inning.

Yes, the Yanks lost earlier fairly humiliating fashion, but that's okay. They've got another chance to find a way to win before we turn the page to tomorrow.

We've got tonight, who needs tomorrow?
Let's make it last, let's find a way.

[Song Notes: Yeah this song is all sorts of sappy, but Bob Seger is a Detroit institution for fuck's sake. I would have used Night Moves but there was no way to chop and twist those lyrics to make any sense in this context whatsoever.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: The top five in the order are the same as earlier but Swisher slides up to sixth, where Posada was before. After DH'ing this afternoon, A-Rod is at 3rd. Marcus Thames is starting, playing left field and batting seventh despite the fact that Bonderman is right handed and Comerica's outfield is massive. No love for Greg Golson, apparently. Frankie Cervelli is obviously catching this one and Ramiro Pena, fresh off of killing the Yankees' chances to win by 20% at the plate will play short and bat 9th.

Jeter DH
Gardner CF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Thames LF
Cervelli C
Pena SS

Tigers: Like the Yanks, the top five in the order are the same as they were this afternoon. Ramon Santiago shifts over the shortstop, Scott Sizemore comes in at second, Alex Avilla catches and Don Kelly (real person?) plays third base.

Austin Jackson, CF
Johnny Damon, DH
Magglio Ordonez, RF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Brennan Boesch, LF
Alex Avila, C
Don Kelly, 3B
Ramon Santiago, SS
Scott Sizemore, 2B

Meet Slade Heathcott

Slade Heathcott. No, he's not a writer dispatched from the New Yorker to write a feature on the Peter Max gallery at the New Yankee Stadium. He's the 18 year old kid the Yanks just drafted out of Texas High School in Texarkana. That would be the state of Texas, in case you were wondering.

His first name is Zachary (as is shown on the first frame of the video here) but has apparently since changed to Slade for marketability purposes, or to set up a future career as a porn producer, should this baseball thing fall through. In related news, please refer to this blog as Fackington T. Youkaford from now forward.

The selection represents the first time since 2005 that the Yankees have selected a position player with their first selection and the first time they have selected an outfielder in the first round since 2001. With the Yankees picking at #29 this year, they had to take someone with "warts" and not the kind that Billy Beane famously talked about in Moneyball. Someone that other teams had passed on depsite obvioius talent and upside. Pinto compares him to Captain Kirk, but let's take a look around to see what else is being said.

The Good:

• Power to all fields - He's a lefty, so if he ever does make it to the big league club, that should help.
  
  
• A strong throwing arm - He even pitched an inning in the Area Code Games and was hitting 91MPH on the gun, and has been clocked at 95.
  
  
• Solid defender - Capable of playing all three OF positions. Assuming hitting talent is constant, if he progresses as CF, he will be significantly more valuable.
  
  
• Good baserunner - Has above average speed and instincts on the bases. Supposedly projects to be a good base stealer.
  
  
• Stuff scouts love - He played football in high school, can do backflips, and "Heathcott is muscular with broad shoulders and a v-cut torso". I hope he runs like a deer!

The Bad:

• ACL surgery - He had his ACL repaired in November after a football injury but all accounts indicate that he has recovered completely and is running well.
  
  
• Academic ineligibility - He was ruled ineligible for his high school team's playoff last month due to poor performance in school. Good thing he won't have to worry about pesky bullshit like "schoolwork" anymore! I know, it's probably not a great sign, but being a member of the National Honor Society isn't a prerequisite for MLB stardom. Just ask Manny Ramirez!
  
  
• Attitude - One of the guys from Baseball Analysts was the one watching him in the Area Code games and thought he came across as cocky. If any of us were still in high school were staring down a future of professional athletics and millions of dollars, we might come across as arrogant as well.
  
  
• Parent issues - Both of his parents are out of his life due to problems with drug abuse. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's probably not a great sign. Hopefully he's got at least some sort of a support structure because those years coming up through the minors can be pretty bleak at times.

Well, Zachary Slade, welcome to the crew. But if we hear one more thing about you being a Red Sox fan, this might get ugly.

The Stolen Base: Fallen From Grace

With the advent of the Juiced Era and an emphasis on sabermetrics by front offices around MLB, the stolen base has declined in use around the game.

One of the most telling disadvantages of stealing bases is measured by the run expectation stat. Below is the run expectation chart for the 2003 MLB season (thanks to writer Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus).


Based on this chart, a runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. However, in the unfortunate event that a runner is caught stealing second base, the run expectation stat drops to .2783. This is a loss of nearly 2/3 of a run (2.3 times more than the gain).

Why would managers risk this chance for a run and give up one of 27 precious outs? Unless it is late in the game and there is a need for a tying run, the batter is a ground into double play threat, or there is next to little chance that the batter at the plate cannot drive the runner in from first (i.e. low slugging percentage), it is stupid.

Horrible times to steal bases include early in the game, when you need multiple runs (baserunners are important) and when a big slugger is at the plate.

In his article, Sheehan points out that the belief that running distracts defenses is misplaced or exaggerated. Sheehan correctly states that "a runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second." He also points out the distraction that running has on the batter. How many times have we seen a batter give up an out by flailing at pitches in the dirt so that the runner can advance? If the batter strikes out and the runner is thrown out, the run expectation goes from .9100 to .1083 in an instant.

Sheehan concludes that break even rate for a stolen base is a 75% success rate. Thus, players with less than a 75% success rate should not even attempt to steal. In fact, if your speed is your only asset and you have less than or barely a 75% success rate, you shouldn't even be on a roster (ahem, Scott Podsednik).

Stealing bases also presents injury risks. Why risk the injury of high-salaried slugger such as an A-Rod, Vladimir Guerrero or Alfonso Soriano? The benefit that these players provide at the dish is immensely higher than their base stealing benefits.

With the decline in Performance Enhancing Drugs and subsequently the decline in the number of home runs, it will be interesting to see if the number of stolen bases returns to 1980s levels when Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Rock Raines ran wild. Having a few .390+ OBP/85+% SB guys can make a team lethal so long as they are in front of a few power hitters. However, as evidenced by the teams mentioned in Sheehan's article, teams shouldn't run just to run.