Please Call Home [Allman Brothers]

Call your Grandmother.

She'll appreciate it. I talked to mine for 45 minutes this morning.

Requiem For A Restaurant

The absolute best part of living in Manhattan is the preponderance of awesome things within walking distance from your apartment. I have accounts with two different banks, both of whom have a location within two blocks from my place. We have two grocery stores within the same distance. I can walk to work in just about the time it takes to listen to Shine On You Crazy Diamond Parts I & II, and Central Park is under 5 minutes away. I've mentioned the Beacon and Fairway, both of which I wouldn't swap for another theater/grocery store.

Another thing that makes the location of our apartment so perfect is (was) Westside Brewing Co. When we first moved down here, we used to go there every Sunday night in addition to the impromptu visits during the week. If I had anyone came into town, it was the first place I thought to bring them.

I would place their wings in my top five of all time, with some serious consideration for the #1 spot. I'm probably biased, but trust me, these were not your ordinary orangey, fake-looking, limp dick wings you get at TGIFriday's. The sauce wasn't sweet like a BBQ and didn't really have a buffalo twang. They never detailed any of the ingredients on the menu, and I'm not much of a gourmand, so if you've never had the pleasure, you are going to have to use your imagination a little bit. They were a deep maroon color, subtly smoky, hot, but not lingering, and... did I mention they were fucking amazing?

Westside stopped brewing their own beer long before I moved down to the city, but they kept a rotating selection of ten taps to make up for that fact. They centered on local brews like Captain Lawrence, Chelsea and Blue Point, but also drew from across and the country and world. Last time I was there, they had Green Flash Le Freak on tap and around Easter-time last year they had an incredible Rauchbier (smoked beer) from Germany.

The had a pretty fervent staff turnover, but managed to keep a cute girl hostessing with remarkable consistency. One time Sampson and I walked in, and were making some offhand comment about work, and the cutest of the hostesses smiles and says "Are you guys in the movie industry?" Sampson immediately goes "Yeah, I'm a director and he is a producer". Her eyes light right up, so we had to let her down gently. She's was like, "Oh, it seems like everyone is in the movie business around here". After we sat down, I went to Sampson, "They aren't really in the movie business sweetie, they just want to have sex with you".

The place wasn't without it's faults. For one, it was closed for strange reasons way too often. Too many times someone came into town and wanted a fairly cheap, relaxed meal, I couldn't wait to take them to WSBC. I would hype up the wings and promise I could pick them out a great beer, only to roll up to the place and see a note scrawled on the door explaining some strange circumstance which precluding them from being open.

About a year and a half ago construction began on The Harrison, which took up most of the block between 76th and 77th & Amsterdam and Broadway. It was well boarded off, but through the slats, you could catch a glimpse of the cavernous void that claimed Amsterdam Billiards.

One night I walked in to the bathroom and in the corner underneath the urinal there was a gigantic hole, looking right down into a 25 foot deep rubble-filled pit. That must have violated the health code, because two nights later they embarked a a little hiatus for a month or two.

In the three years we've been going there, they never changed their menu. It's not like it diverted us from stopping by, but as a place that had a pretty large regular customer base, you'd think they'd have wanted to switch it up a little bit.

It is also extremely close to The Beacon and it gets a lot of spillover, which can be annoying if you want to get a seat at the bar. They occasionally even play the music of the act that is on that night. One night Kelly Clarkston was in town and we got sat down right next to a table full of pre-teen girls who knew the words to every single song, and weren't afraid to sing along at full roar.

Sometime last year, our friend Ian was around and we popped into Westside to grab some food. We got the wings (as always) I ordered a Hawaiian pizza, Sampson got a burger and Ian got the tuna melt. The pizza always takes longer to begin with, but at one point I glanced over my shoulder and happen to spot the our waitress and my pizza in mid-air headed towards an inevitable demise.

She didn't think we saw it happen and about two minutes later, after the mess had been cleaned up, she came over and said "Sorry guys, your food will be up in like 5 minutes. Want another beer?" We didn't feel like correcting her just yet, and let it slide.

She eventually brought us over the food and as she's sliding the pizza in front of me, I go, "Round two on this one, huh?" She stopped for a second and goes, "Yeah, I was kinda hoping you guys didn't see that". She was cute and we laughed it off. When Ian got terrible food poisoning an hour later, he wasn't laughing. There's not way of telling, but I'm pretty sure the 20 minutes that tuna melt spent under the lamps didn't help. That didn't stop us from going back either.

The allure was obviously the beers, for me personally. It was always crowded, so I don't think I'm alone in that respect. They absolutely always had a high quality Double IPA on tap, whose hoppy character was an unlikely match for the wings. Ten beers every week allows for some pretty serious breadth and they did a pretty good job of managing the selection.

I really don't go out to dinner than much because we have a grill and SeamlessWeb (and I have no money), so I'm probably the last person who is going to get sentimental about an eatery closing it's doors. Evelyn Lounge... now that was a tragedy. But wow, this sucks a fucking lot. I was moving my car the other night, saw the papered up windows and went out of my typical loop so I could email Sampson a picture with the caption "RIP Westside Brew Co." from my iPhone.

It's not all doom and gloom though. I was trawling the message boards over at Beer Advocate and found this little gem:

I have an infallible source telling me this place will be re-opened under new management in a few weeks. And by new management, I mean guys who know how to run an outstanding beer bar. UWSers should be psyched. More to follow.

It's a message board, so I'm not going to get my hopes up, but please, please, please almighty Beer Gods, get something in there soon. It's not fair. I'm dying inside.


----

I just went out to take the daytime pictures above and as I was standing there, a guy with one of those chest baby pouch/carriers and his wife walk up. The dude was probably in his 30's and with a forlorn look on his face he said "It's like, closed, man."

5 x 81 = 405

I know lots of people were up in arms about the obstructed view bleacher seats at The New Yankee Stadium when they were still being sold for full price. Now they are $5, and I really can't think of a better value in all of sports, and possibly all of life.

Here is a short list of other things that cost $5:

1. Half of a shitty beer at the New Stadium
2. A pint of shitty light beer elsewhere in the city
3. Two slices at Freddie & Pepper's (one cheese and one white slice with broccoli, zucchini and ricotta on whole wheat crust or a buffalo chicken with cross-checked bleu cheese)
4. A foot-long sandwich from Subway
5. Two Olde English 40oz (paper bags included)
6. Roughly 12 cigarettes
7. A 10 block cab ride with tip (estimated)
8. A shoe shine (plus tip)
9. 2 1/2 subway rides
10. A small frozen yogurt at Pinkberry with three toppings
11. The Sunday NYT
12. One share of GE stock, 2 shares of GM, or 3 1/3 of CitiGroup
13. 2 pairs of socks at a street fair
14. One Titleist Pro-V1
15. A NYS Lottery Win For Life scratch-off
16. A program at the Saratoga Race Track
17. One pound of sirloin at Fairway
18. A shot of Jameson

I'd rather have a ticket to a Yankee game at the New Stadium than any three of those, regardless of how bad the view is. Well, depending on how the scratch-off turned out, I might have to take that plus two shots of Jameson.

Last year, our Saturday Package was about $330, for Tier Reserved Section 7 Row M. That put us between home and first, with a view of the whole field, but pretty far up there. Not exactly a location that was going to impress anyone, but there was a bathroom and a beer dispensary right at the entrance to our section. That's only 13 games, though.

Yes, the seats are obstructed view, but unlike the Old Stadium, you aren't sequestered like you are in a leper colony in out centerfield. You have access to the rest of the park, and although you can't take beers back to your seat, you can certainly drink them walking around.

It's basically a Standing Room Only ticket. Back when the Beacon Theater wasn't owned by MSG/Cablevision and diabolically corporatized, they used to have SRO tix for the mezzanine level. The sound was 100 times better than the balcony, and who cares if you don't have your own seat? Sitting down at a concert in not in my playbook.

Granted, standing for an entire baseball game would kind of suck, but if that picture above is anywhere near accurate you'll be able to see everything except left-center and over. I can live with that. Plus, you can always watch on the monitors on the side of the sports bar. It's better than your couch, right? Hell, you can just go in the sports bar.

After the initial rush of everyone wanting to get out to the Stadium for the first time, you are going to be able to spot some empties in the upper deck and park it there for a while too. And of course, I'll try to sneak into better seats than that and document the escapades for this here cyberblogsite.

I don't know how gestapo-like the security is going to be at The Structure That Mariano Rivera Erected, but the concourses are supposed to be more open and have better views of the field. I wouldn't mind crusing around, sipping on a really expensive beer (or ginger ale I spiked with my flask of Johnny Red) and taking in the different vantage points. I can understand if you wouldn't do it because are older or have kids, that sounds like a pretty fantastic deal to me.

Just to recap, you could (theoretically) get full season tickets for the New Yankee Stadium for $75 more than we paid for our Saturday package last year. If I wanted to wait on hold for an hour and then be told to go fuck myself, I'd look into this right now.

All I wanna know is... Who's coming with me?

Jan, thank you Jan!

[Sorry, but that abomination was the only version I could find. God, I don't know why the fuck that person felt the need to remix, edit and thereby bastardize such a brilliant cinematic moment, but I'll bet you anything Jim Bruer would like to stub his joint out in their eye]

Countdown To Opening Day: #37

Sorry, I got decked with something unexpected that isn't my responsibility and I'd reaaaally rather not do this morning at work. I have a post in the works, but it could be a little while. Here are some Casey Stengel Spring Training pictures to hold you over.

And now the action shots!

Talking about balance, maybe?

Or possibly just wasted


He just punted the rosin bag in those one, apparently

The Yankees also learned ballroom dancing at Spring Training

(You may notice that I took the header for the site from another shot from this sequence.)

Joba to De-Virginize New Yankee Stadium?

Based on the rotation that Joe Girardi has set forth...

1. Sabathia
2. Burnett
3. Wang
4. Pettitte
5. Chamberlain

...and the Yankees schedule, New York Post genius George King has penciled Joba in as the starter for the Opener of the New Yankee Stadium (by the way, how long will this Yankee Stadium be called "New"?).

Says King:

Since Chamberlain would work on April 11, he would be in line to start April 16 against the Indians at the Stadium.

"I don't want to give that to you yet because there is a lot of things that can change in spring training," Girardi said of which pitcher will draw the prestigious Stadium opener.

I'm not sure that I buy King's hypothesis. Given the many off-days in the beginning of the season (both scheduled and as a result of Mother Nature being a bitch in the Northeast at this time of the year), a few guys will be skipped, as is ordinarily the case. The prime skip candidate is Joba himself, whose 2009 innings need to be limited to around 150-160 given his total of 100 1/3 IP last year.

Given that Joba will probably be skipped, Andy Pettitte, Sabathia or Burnett are the prime candidates for the Opener.

Thanks for the blog content, George!

Huggins-Stengel Field

[Ed. Note: Sorry folks, the content is going to be somewhat fluffy today, as I've got a lot of (actual) work to do.]

Here are some pictures from Huggins-Stengel Field in St. Petersburg, the site of Yankees Spring Training from 1925-1942, 1946-1950, and 1952-1961. After the Yankees vacated the site, it was used by the Mets from 1961 to 1988, then by the Orioles and the (at the time Devil) Rays in the 90's.

Legend has it that the reason the Yankees moved to St. Pete from New Orleans after the 1924 season was to eliminate the temptation for the Babe to carouse around Bourbon Street. The Babe was said to have lofted a blast into the alligator infested Crescent Lake some 500 feet from home plate, as was Dave Kingman.

The park was first known as Crescent Lake Field but was changed to Miller Huggins Field in 1931. The name was altered to honor Casey Stengel as well in 1963.

The book Haunted Baseball: Ghosts, Curses, Legends and Unexplained Events, by Mickey Bradley and Dan Gordon details some of the supposedly supernatural occurrences at the field, if you are into that sort of thing. They say, sometimes, when it's just you and a couple other equally irrational/superstitious people, you can still smell Miller Huggins' cigar smoke.

Here is a picture taken last October from an article in USA Today.

You can also check out a really cool slideshow here.

Fantastic News

Fack Youk has been picked up by ESPN:



Despite of all the Widget bashing, erroneous Simmons hating, and Nate Silver questioning, we are now part of the ESPN family. They've specifically requested more incoherent rants from Big Willie Style.

[Ed. Note: That's not a photoshop, just a random Internet Explorer glitch.]

Jerry Reese, I Am Available

The Sporting News has a rather earth-shattering revelation, via the Cincinnati Enquirer:

Wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh of the Bengals is the top free agent on the New York Giants' wish list, according to The Sporting News.

>8

While Houshmandzadeh is a reliable receiver, TSN noted, "there is no way to find a comparable replacement to Plaxico Burress, as 6-5 receivers with speed and a huge wingspan are almost impossible to find. Burress faces a serious legal battle and possible jail time as a result of illegal gun charges."

If you were one of the six people reading this blog a month and a half ago you may recall this post. No? Perhaps this one from a week later.

I threw out the possibility of TJ Houshmandzadeh, who is going to be a free agent, because the Giants won't have to give anything up besides money and cap space. Up until this season, Housh has taken a backseat to the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson. TJ caught 905 of the 2672 yards thrown for by Bengals QBs in 2008, and has had more touchdowns than Ocho in each of the past three years. But he's 6'1", 199, and 31 years old.

Come on Jerry Reese, you know you need a guy with no experience in professional sports and a sometimes vulgar sports blog on your staff. You can find my email address on the left side of the site. I look forward to hearing from you.

/pats self on back

//toots own horn

Spike Lee Plays D

I don't know who would be penalized, but I'm fairly sure this is against the rules.

With the Knicks down by two and under a minute to go, Spike Lee decided to get his lean on and help Al Harrington force the Magic to spend their last timeout. Well played, sir.

Spike is trying to be fairly discreet, but unfortunately, the guy in the suit next to him looks like he's about to piss himself.

Dueling Projections

I have taken considerable heat for my post on Nate Silver's A-Rod projections in our comment section and elsewhere. As always, here at Fack Youk, we subscribe to Benjamin Disraeli's quote "It is easier to be critical than right". As the result of some goading from a commenter named Fridas Boss at Baseball Think Factory, I have used some cutting edge statistical techniques to develop my own projection for how many home runs Alex Rodriguez will amass over the course of his career.

First, for the record, here are Nate's projections again (with A-Rod's past two years).

One thing I didn't notice before was that Silver's projection lasts two years beyond A-Rod's current contract. I'm going to go out on a limb here, but if A-Rod hits four home runs in 2017 and is at 726 total, I don't think the Yankees, or any team for that matter, are going to sign him.

-----

My method was extremely complex and exhaustive. Here are the steps I took.

1. Used the later years of Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth to see, in total, how some of the greatest home run hitters of all-time have produced during their decline phases. I excluded Barry Bonds because of his atypical middle aged physical metamorphosis, despite the fact that he a A-Rod are both alleged PED users.



2. Combined that and A-Rod's previous totals to develop a trend line for doubles.



3. And for slugging percentage, factoring in his declining speed and the negative impact it will have on his SLG%.
   
   
4. Combined those three lines into a conglomerate trend line I called his Projected Power Index (PPI)



5. Estimated the ballpark effects of the New Yankee Stadium based on the prevailing weather patterns in April through September and the way it the diamond now faces.
   
   
6. Used all of these in conjunction with his previous home run numbers, taking into account his steroid use in Texas (increased production minus park effects) to create his Projected Home Runs (PHRs).



7. Decided all of that that would be way too difficult and possibly counterproductive, and instead picked the number "792" which would ensure that if he breaks the record, I will be closer than Nate by a couple of HRs. I then back-filled the numbers making sure there wasn't a drop off every single year since that was something I took issue with.



8. Behold:

One of the things I said in the last post, but probably should have emphasized more was:

I realize that the most reliable way to predict future outcomes is by analyzing past events. However, the flaw in using this methodology is that it becomes impossible to predict when someone will do unprecedented things. Simply put, how is analyzing 20 guys, none of whom is the career home run leader, ever going to result in the simulation predicting A-Rod will break the all-time record?

Commenter scatterbrian nailed it:

It seems futile to attempt projecting a career that is an outlier. Rodriguez had 91 extra-base hits in his age-20 season, so we're dealing with a pretty rare player as it is. (DiMaggio and Pujols each had 89 in their age-21 seasons.) Using guys like Grich, Caminiti and Sandberg as comps doesn't seem fair to Rodriguez. Combined those three have only four seasons with 30+ homers. Rodriguez has hit less that 35 just one time.

The point of an individual projection, at least to me, is not to produce a seemingly exhaustive and all-encompassing methodology. The objective is to be right.

PETCOA is obviously more complex and accurate overall than anything I could ever hope to construct. However, the point of the previous post was to call into question a method that is only going to produce one result: A-Rod falling short of the all-time home run record.

Silver's projection serves to remind us that A-Rod breaking Hank Aa-- er, Barry Bonds' record is far from a foregone conclusion based on pretty much every career path that has taken shape in the history of baseball. I just don't think A-Rod fits that mold.

Only time will tell.

-----

Oh and by the way, I made a similar projection for his home run totals this year, based on his performance in Spring Training. You probably won't believe it, but he is currently on pace for 162 HRs in 2009: A-Rod homers in first spring game [ESPN]

The Stolen Base: Fallen From Grace

With the advent of the Juiced Era and an emphasis on sabermetrics by front offices around MLB, the stolen base has declined in use around the game.

One of the most telling disadvantages of stealing bases is measured by the run expectation stat. Below is the run expectation chart for the 2003 MLB season (thanks to writer Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus).


Based on this chart, a runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. However, in the unfortunate event that a runner is caught stealing second base, the run expectation stat drops to .2783. This is a loss of nearly 2/3 of a run (2.3 times more than the gain).

Why would managers risk this chance for a run and give up one of 27 precious outs? Unless it is late in the game and there is a need for a tying run, the batter is a ground into double play threat, or there is next to little chance that the batter at the plate cannot drive the runner in from first (i.e. low slugging percentage), it is stupid.

Horrible times to steal bases include early in the game, when you need multiple runs (baserunners are important) and when a big slugger is at the plate.

In his article, Sheehan points out that the belief that running distracts defenses is misplaced or exaggerated. Sheehan correctly states that "a runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second." He also points out the distraction that running has on the batter. How many times have we seen a batter give up an out by flailing at pitches in the dirt so that the runner can advance? If the batter strikes out and the runner is thrown out, the run expectation goes from .9100 to .1083 in an instant.

Sheehan concludes that break even rate for a stolen base is a 75% success rate. Thus, players with less than a 75% success rate should not even attempt to steal. In fact, if your speed is your only asset and you have less than or barely a 75% success rate, you shouldn't even be on a roster (ahem, Scott Podsednik).

Stealing bases also presents injury risks. Why risk the injury of high-salaried slugger such as an A-Rod, Vladimir Guerrero or Alfonso Soriano? The benefit that these players provide at the dish is immensely higher than their base stealing benefits.

With the decline in Performance Enhancing Drugs and subsequently the decline in the number of home runs, it will be interesting to see if the number of stolen bases returns to 1980s levels when Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Rock Raines ran wild. Having a few .390+ OBP/85+% SB guys can make a team lethal so long as they are in front of a few power hitters. However, as evidenced by the teams mentioned in Sheehan's article, teams shouldn't run just to run.

Yesterday

(Benjamin Molina with Yadier pictured above)

Peter Abraham has a story about the passing of Jose Molina's father in LoHud this morning.

Despite having three sons in the major leagues, Benjamin Molina continued to work at a factory on an assembly line. Only after his death did the brothers learn that he intended to retire in December to spend more time with their mother.

"He used to say he worked to get the health insurance for my mom," Molina said. "We told him we would take care of that, but he loved to work. I could tell you hours and hours of stories like that. There was nothing bad about him."

There is no way a father can have three sons at the same position in the major leagues without knowing a whole lot about baseball, teaching and hard work.

I lost my dad a while back and although I never played baseball, my dad was a lot like Mr. Molina. When I was six years old he started taking me to the driving range and eventually let me play in from the 150 yard markers. I owe a lot of my golf skills to the fact that my dad wasn't afraid to push me to try harder.

He'd get up at 5AM during the week and bust his ass at SOFCO during the day but would usually stop by The Edison Club on the way home to pound some balls and could always be found at sunset on the putting green.

You have to hang in 'til the end, but this song will hit home if you've lost your father.

I Have Nothing To Add To This

"The only thing left to answer about this case, for now, is what kind of wacko attempts to seduce porn stars by posing as a career .248 utility player?" [Deadspin]