Game 160: One More Chance

CC Sabathia will step to the mound tonight in search of his 20th victory of the season. The Big CCheese won 19 along with the AL Cy Young Award in 2007 and coincidentally has the same ERA (3.21) and the same record (19-7) that year as he does with one start to go in 2009. Odds are, one of those three numbers will change tonight, and likely, two of them will fluctuate.

The Tampa Bay Rays, led by David Price will be trying to see to it that the numbers that change are in the "loss" and "ERA" columns. This is not the position the Rays envisioned themselves in when this season began - long since eliminated from the postseason and simply playing out the string. The media darlings were predicted to contend for the AL East crown or at least the Wild Card but instead were pretty much out of the playoff picture when August came around.

A sort of symbol of the Rays struggles, Price has has a disappointing season as well. in 121 1/3 IP, he's stuck out 97, walked 52 and racked up a 4.60 ERA. When he was unveiled during last year's playoff run as a reliever, the general consensus was that he would be a force to be reckoned with one transitioned to the starting rotation. However, much like Joba Chamberlain, he's thrown too many pitches and walked too many batters. He's been better as of late though, carrying a 3.86 ERA over his last seven starts, including six innings of two run ball against the Yanks about three weeks ago.

Like Mr. Sabathia, Mike Mussina made a charge towards 20 wins last season notching victories in each of his last three starts including the last one against a division rival (the Red Sox) on the road, in a meaningless game (although meaningless for entirely different reasons). Paradoxically, Mussina did it with a higher ERA on a team with at least 13 fewer victories.

Should he complete the feat, Sabathia will have gone 10-0 in his last 12 starts to get 20 victories. CC will be the man of the night, whether he wants to acknowledge it or not:

Right now, to be honest, 20 wins is the last thing on my mind. I'm just trying to get ready to pitch on Wednesday. It would be great to be able to look back one day and say I won 20 games one year, but it's not a crazy goal.

He's not the type of guy who is going to make a big deal out of it, but I'm sure he's thinking about getting to the big 2-0. If you work the whole season and are within reach of that milestone for the first time in your career and you're going to want it pretty badly. He'll probably be putting a little more pressure on himself than usual, so it will be more interesting than your average playoff tune-up.

Big Poppa's only got one chance to do it. This year anyway.

Lyrically, I'm supposed to represent,
I'm not only the client, I'm the player president.

One more chance,
Biggie give me one more chance,
All I need is one more chance.

[Sidenote: The song choices have been a bit of a struggle lately, since we've ripped through 160 of them now, but this one might have been the easiest of the year. Sometimes they just fall into place.]

Game 105: Perfect Day

CC Sabathia remains the Yankees last hope to scoop the last game of this series, leave Chicago with a portion of their dignity intact and guarantee that they will still have a share of the lead in the AL East when play ends today. The Red Sox are just a half of a game back now and begin play in Baltimore at 1:35, so you can expect some scoreboard watching.

The Big CCheese hasn't been especially good as of late, and the offense hasn't been particularly productive behind him all year. Over his past 7 starts, he's been mixing in some solid performances (three games with 7IP and one or fewer runs) with some stinkers (three starts with more than 5 runs allowed). He's allowed more than a hit per inning over that time in addition to 12 walks while striking out 39. The Yanks need their man to step up in order to get their first win against a team with "Sox" in their name this year.

The White Stockings will counter with their own lefty ace. Mark Buerhle has been pitching in some rarefied air as of late, following up his perfect game against the Rays by retiring the first 17 batters he faced in his next start against the Twins. Dating back to his previous start against the Orioles, Buerhle had retired a Major League record 45 batters in a row without allowing a walk, hit, hit by pitch or having an error committed behind him. Pretty remarkable stuff.

Of course, the wheels came off for the lefty and he ended up getting tagged for 5 runs and the loss against the Twins. But such is the delicate balance of being a pitcher. For all of the efforts to reduce it down to mechanics and execution, it remains incredibly difficult to have extended runs of dominance and when they do occur, they can vanish instantly. It's not like golf where the ball is stationary. It's not like basketball where the hoop is. It's not like football where the person you are throwing it to shares a common goal. As evidenced by the at bat I detailed last night, a batter can intervene at any time and spoil the hurler's plan.

As a reminder of how rare elusive perfection can be, before Buerhle, the last perfect game thrown by a Pale Hose pitcher was by Charlie Roberston in 1922. It was followed by a league-wide perfect game drought that lasted over 34 years and ended with Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series.

It's yet another rainy shitshow on the East Coast, but it could scarcely be nicer out in Chicago. Great day for some baseball. Some might even say it's a...

Just a perfect day,
Problems are left to know,
Weekenders all night long,
It's such fun.

Just a perfect day,
You make me forget myself,
I thought I was someone else,
Someone good.

Hangin' Around

After yesterday's game, I found myself wondering why it feels like it's better when a starting pitcher gives up runs later in the game. Mathematically, it would seem that if you are going to give up 5 runs (4 earned) like CC Sabathia did yesterday, it wouldn't matter very much when they come. You always hear announcers say things like "he's keeping his team in the game", but it hadn't occured to me that there might be some statistical justification for this. 

For my case, I'm going to use the WPA (Win Percentage Added) charts from Fan Graphs that the guys from RAB like to use pretty often. Simply put, these charts estimate the likelihood, based on the score the sitatuion on the field and historical data, of which team is going to win. For further explanation, you can study up here. 

First, yesterday's Yankees game:

The Yanks were leading 1-0 from the bottom of the first to the top of the 6th inning. During that time, their WPA fluctuated between roughly 50-70% in their favor. (The Angels loaded the bases in the second inning with only one out, which explains the dip early on). As I mentioned in a previous post, reacting to something Lar from Wezen-ball wrote, you can't subscribe to the fallacy of the predetermined outcome. At any point, the offense could have helped CC out and threw up a few runs, tipping the WPA in their favor, and changing the whole equation. It's not like Sabathia was destined to give up 5 runs (one unearned). The longer a starter carries a solid performance into a game, the more likely he is to leave the mound having thrown a gem. 

Now let's take a look at yesterday's game between the Sox and Rays:

Boston jumped on Tampa bay starter Jeff Niemann early and were winning by 5 runs in the top of the 2nd. Look at the WPA as a result. During the time of the game when the Yanks were at 50-75%, the Sox hovered in the neighborhood of a 75-90% chance of winning. Granted, Tampa Bay mounted a bit of a rally in the 5th inning and brought the score to 6-5, but the point still stands. 

Keeping your team in the game: It actually does count for something. There's something to be said for Hangin' Around:

[God, that Album Cover is creepy. Why are you such a weirdo, Edgar Winter? I'm sorry, but that's the only version they had on YouTube and I don't have time to upload my own.]

Was yesterday's loss dissapointing? Yes. Has Sabathia lived up to expectations so far? No. Should I stop answering my own questons? Probably. It was a tight contest much of the way, with some great defensive plays by Ramiro Pena, Melky Cabrera and even the Big CCheese. Thanks to CC's strong first six innings, the Yanks had their chances to win, they just didn't capitalize.

Game 5: Redemption Song

Tonight, the Big CCheese is back on the hill and he's got one more chance to put up a solid start before coming back to the New Yankee Stadium, where at least some of the inhabitants might be slightly less understanding of his shortcomings. Sabathia is looking to right the ship after his shaky start down and Baltimore and maybe, you know, record a strikeout this time. Fellow lefty Andy Pettitte certainly had his way with the Royals last night, throwing seven innings, striking out six and only allowing three hits and a walk, if you like to read into that kind of stuff.

On the mound for the Royals is yet another lefty, Horacio Ramirez. He faced the Yankees twice in 2007, once throwing six and a third innings of one run ball while I was driving back to the city, listening on the radio thinking to myself "who the fuck is this guy again?". The next time, he gave up three runs in 5 2/3, which is pretty much what you would expect from a dude with a 4.59 career ERA.

Due to the magic of scheduling posts, I'm probably still on the golf course right now, and won't be around to drum up any action for a game thread. So, just chill out, listen to the words of encouragement Bob Marley has for our starter tonight, and enjoy the contest: