On The Bases

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Two of the most critical plays in the Division Series against Minnesota were base running mistakes: Carlos Gomez tripping rounding second base with two outs in the fourth inning of Game Two, and his subsequent failure to get himself caught in a rundown long enough to allow Delmon Young to score may have cost the Twins that game. In Game Three, down by a run with no one out in the eighth, Nick Punto got a little too aggressive rounding third base, and Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Alex Rodriguez combined to pluck the potential tying run right out of scoring position.

In Game Three of the ALCS, the Angels made a pair of base running mistakes of their own. Torii Hunter was erased on a pickoff/caught stealing while trailing 2-0 in the fourth. With the score tied in the eighth, Bobby Abreu erased his own leadoff double by getting nabbed retreating to second base after an overly aggressive turn.

While the Twins and Angels are heralded for "doing the little things right" these base running mistakes (not to mention the Angels' play in the field) have flown in the face of that. The Yankees had been relatively immune to such mistakes on the base paths until Game Four:

- Derek Jeter got picked off/caught stealing after a single to leadoff the game.

- In the fifth, Jorge Posada was on second base with no one out, and failed to score on double from Robinson Cano, victimized by a deke from Hunter in centerfield.

- The next at bat, Posada broke for home on Nick Swisher's tapper back to the mound. I don't know that I can fault Posada for breaking for home. Perhaps the contact play was on. The Yankees scored their first run of the game on a similarly aggressive move from A-Rod in the fourth. But the comedy of (baserunning) errors began thereafter.

Posada, knowing he was a goner at the plate, rightly froze and got caught in a rundown to allow the other runners time to advance. As Posada reatreated to third, he and Cano converged on the bag. For some reason, Cano hesitated and it took a terrible call from third base umpire Tim McClelland to keep the Yankees from losing two outs on the play. While Cano should have already been on the bag, he may have been crossed up by Posada continuing to retreat. Once Posada was sure Cano was at the base safely he should have given himself up. Meanwhile, Swisher failed to advance to second while all this was happening.

- As discussed earlier today, in the seventh Brett Gardner was caught stealing as a pinch runner for the second consecutive day, though this one wasn't nearly as costly as his CS in Game Three.

In the end, none of the Yankees' mistakes on the bases Tuesday proved to be too costly. They've subsisted this post-season largely on the strength of their pitching and on the long ball. But, as we've mentioned here a few times already, they've also had several breaks go their way. These little things matter. Giving outs away on the bases can prove very costly (just ask the Twins) and can make a team "unlucky" awfully quick. Here's hoping that Tuesday's poor base running was the first and last we'll see from them this month.

Red Light, Green Light

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At about the one third mark of this season, I became very vocal here with my belief that Brett Gardner deserved the lion's share of the playing time as the Yankees' centerfielder. His broken thumb in late July pretty much derailed any chance of that becoming a reality.

There was never any doubt that Melky Cabrera would be the starting centerfielder in the post-season, and buoyed by the strength of his ALCS Game Four, Cabrera's small sample size post-season numbers have been good. While some have suggested that Gardner start in place of the slumping Nick Swisher, that shouldn't happen, and I highly doubt it will.

Outside of it flying in the face of conventional wisdom, Joe Girardi seems to be infatuated with the idea of having Brett Gardner available as a pinch running option off the bench. While Hideki Matsui, and to a lesser extent Jorge Posada, make that a desirable option to have, I think the underlying thought process is faulty in something of the same way that the Joba to the bullpen argument is: it doesn't matter how good your late game options are if your early game options don't put you in a place to leverage them. That is, Gardner's speed shouldn't count against him. Don't hold him back because he's fast; if he belongs in the starting line up put him there.

That aside, something unexpected has happened in Gardner's last two pinch running appearances. After being successful in 26 of 31 attempts this year and 39 of 45 in his brief MLB career, Gardner has been caught stealing as a pinch runner in both of the last two games.

At the risk of blowing a small sampling out of proportion, I'm curious about this. Generally speedsters like Gardner have permanent green lights; they're free to go whenever they want so long as they're not given an explicit red light. I would assume that Gardner's operating under those conditions, but the situations in which he's decided to run in the last two games have made me wonder.

In Game Three, Gardner pinch ran for Hideki Matsui in the eighth. He was on first base, with no one out, trailing by a run. After a throw to first, on a 0-1 pitch, Gardner took off for second. Given the situation it was a risky move to begin with, given the count, it was even riskier. The Angels pitched out, Gardner was gunned down at second, and the potential tying run went from on base to the batters box. The Yankees lost 14.3% of win probability in the process, the most costly Yankee out of the game.

In Game Four, Gardner entered again in the eight, again at first, again with no one out. This time at least, the Yankees were up 5-1. After two throws to first, Gardner took off on a 2-0 pitch and got caught again. At least there was no risk of a pitch out that time. Because of the score, this time it only cost the Yankees 1.1% of win probability.

I'm wondering what exactly the thought process is here. Is Gardner perma-greenlighted and going on his own? Is he under express orders to go? As a pinch runner, does he feel like he has to run? In a situation like Game Three's, why is he not given a explicit red light?

I'm not anti-stolen base. In the right situation it is a calculated risk well worth taking. Gardner's SB in the tenth inning of Game Two of the ALDS was a good one. It put him in scoring position as the potential winning run, and his speed later forced an errant pick off throw that put him on third base with just one out. But I'm dubious of the two latest attempts, and not just because of the negative outcomes. I wonder if Gardner's becoming entrenched in his role as pinch runner/defensive replacement and trying to make something happen in each of his limited opportunities.

The Honeymoon Is Over

For the first five games of this postseason, it was easy to fantasize about the Yankees steamrolling through the playoffs without so much as a hitch. However, the reality was that an 11 game winning streak would have been their longest of the season by two games. To expect them to better that against the best competition they've faced, under the most extreme pressure was wishful thinking, and we were reminded of that in the 11th inning in Anaheim.

Perhaps four home runs should have been enough to win the game for the Yanks, but some missed chances, homers by the Angels and questionable decisions led to their undoing. Before we start debating the managerial moves (which we certainly will tomorrow morning), let's look at what actually did happen.

Derek Jeter began the 1st inning by depositing the third pitch he saw from Jered Weaver into the left field seats, his third tater of the postseason in only 25 plate appearances. It was as good a start to the afternoon as possible for the Yanks and they looked to add to that lead in the second inning.

After a lead off single by Hideki Matsui, and a walk to Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano grounded out thereby moving Matsui to third base. Nick Swisher had a chance at a cheap RBI but flied out to shallow left after which Melky Cabrera grounded out to end the threat.

Andy Pettitte had held the Angels scoreless through the first three innings when A-Rod led of the fourth with yet another October homer. Weaver left a 3-1 change up floating over the plate and Alex mashed it to deep left field, putting the Yanks up 2-0. Like they did in the second, the Yanks followed with a walk, single and a force out, again putting runners on first and third with one out for Swisher. This time Weaver threw all off-speed pitches, ultimately getting Swish to swing over a curveball in the dirt.

A homer by Johnny Damon in the 5th inning put the Yanks on top 3-0, and after a walk to Mark Teixeira, the Bombers looked poised to blow the game wide open. With Weaver still in the game, A-Rod ripped a ball to left center which looked at first like it had a chance to become his 6th homer off of Jered Weaver in career 18 ABs, but it fell short into the glove of Juan Rivera.

And it was pretty much all downhill from there...

Howie Kendrick knocked the first home run given up by Yankees pitching this postseason in the 5th inning to cut the Angels' deficit to 2 runs. Then, with Bobby Abreu on base in front of him in the 6th, Vlad Guerrero (who many had suggested be replaced at the Halos' clean up hitter) lofted a high drive off of Andy Pettitte and paused to watch it sail towards the visitor's bullpen, tying the game at 3.

Pettitte came out to start the seventh inning but was replaced by Joba Chamberlain after retiring Kendry Morales. Cue the Rally Monkey. Joba promptly allowed a triple off the right field wall to Howie Kendrick, putting the go ahead run on third with one out. Mike Napoli was due up but Mike Scioscia inexplicably pinch hit for him again, this time with Macier Izturis. The decision worked out, as Izturis smashed a deep line drive, scoring Kendrick easily.

The Yankees hadn't trailed for more than two times at bat during this postseason and this situation was no different. Hideki Matsui led off the 8th with a walk and was pinch run for by Brett Gardner. Unfortunately, the move backfired when Gardner was nabbed stealing on a well-timed 0-1 pitch out. If you subscribe to the FotPO, it cost the Yankees a run when Jorge Posada jacked a solo homer, tying the game at 4.

Damaso Marte needed only one pitch to get the 3rd out of the 7th inning, but Joe Girardi called on fellow lefty Phil Coke to pitch to Bobby Abreu to start the 8th. Abreu ripped a ball in the gap but took an extra wide turn around second and was tagged out thanks in part to a strong throw by his old pal Melky Cabrera, a nice relay by Jeter and Mark Teixeira's diligent back up of second base.

Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira both made outs to begin the top of the 9th inning but the Angels intentionally walked A-Rod anyway. Brett Gardner was hitting 5th after replacing Matsui, but he was pinch hit for by Game 2 pie recipient Jerry Hairston, Jr. There was no magic for Hairston this time as Fuentes struck him out easily, giving the Halos their first chance at a walk-off.

Phil Hughes had cruised through an inning and two-thirds without giving up a hit, so Girardi left him in to begin the 9th. Hughes would only face one batter, Jeff Mathis, who drove a lead off double into the gap in left. After some stalling on the mound, Girardi pulled the escape hatch and called on Mariano Rivera to face Eric Aybar. In an attempt to sacrifice, Aybar laid a bunt down the third baseline. Rivera, spry as ever on the mound, sprung off mound to field it. He looked to have Mathis at 3rd, but botched the throw. It bounced in the dirt past A-Rod and rolled into foul territory but Johnny Damon was there to back it up. At that point, the Angels' Win Expectancy was 93.8%.

Rivera had his work cut out for him and began by getting Chone Figgins to bounce out sharply to Mark Teixeria, holding the runner at third and getting the out at first. With Bobby Abreu due up and men on second and third, the Yankees walked the bases loaded, putting a force at every base. There were a lot of ways to get the run across, but Rivera got both Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero to ground out to first and squirmed out of a death-defying jam.

Because Girardi chose to swap Jerry Hairston for Johnny Damon in the 10th inning for defensive purposes, Rivera was due up at the plate in the top of the 11th. After Ervin Santana got both Melky and Jeter out, Girardi pinch hit for Rivera with Francisco Cervelli who struck out on a slider in the dirt.

Since Rivera was out of the game, Girardi went to David Robertson. After getting Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales - Girardi, to this dismay of many - called on Alfredo Aceves to face Howie Kendrick. The decision backfired in a major way. Kendrick singled and Jeff Mathis - the far inferior hitter of the two Angels' catchers who could have been pinch fun for in the 10th - ripped his second double of the afternoon, this one a game-winner.

This game is bound to leave a bad taste in some people's mouths, but luckily it won't linger for too long. CC Sabathia will take the hill on short rest in a pivotal Game 4 tomorrow night at 8.

Sabathia 1, Ellsbury 0

Amidst what was universally considered an abysmal performance (on Twitter at least) by a typically poor broadcasting team, there was a moment in the first inning when Jon Miller and Joe Morgan were actually -- insightful. (That sound you hear is Ken Tremendous rolling over in his digital grave.) With CC Sabathia ahead in the count 0-2 against Dustin Pedroia, Miller asked Morgan about Sabathia's move to first base because Jacoby Ellsbury was one steal away from breaking the Red Sox single season record.

Morgan responded by explaining how Sabathia was varying his leg kick in an effort to keep Ellsbury off-balance. Sabathia followed by delivering a pitch with almost no wind up, which would have been almost impossible to steal on. On the ensuing delivery, Sabathia raised his knee as if he were starting a wind up, which was exactly what Ellsbury was waiting to run on. Unfortunately for Ellsbury, Sabathia was one step ahead of him and instead of throwing to the plate, he fired to Mark Teixeira at first, who threw to Derek Jeter just in time to beat Ellsbury to second.

What was great about this sequence was the timing. Miller brought up the point, Morgan was spot on with his analysis and two pitches later, something relevant to their conversation actually happened. They didn't belabor the point incessantly only for it never to happen like so often occurs.

I'm a pretty serious baseball fan but I'll admit that I don't often notice the interplay and mind games that occur between a prolific base stealer and the pitcher trying to keep him at bay. Perhaps it's because aside from Brett Gardner, the Yankees haven't had a truly frightening speed threat in the line up since Rickey Henderson. Tim Raines was in his mid-to-late 30's when he joined the Yanks, Alfonso Soriano wasn't on base enough and Steve Sax and Roberto Kelly had their moments, but none of those guys stole more than 45 in a season wearing pinstripes. And the most recent of that group, Soriano, has been gone for 6 years already.

That moment last night represented what broadcasts are supposed to do and what Miller, Morgan and Phillips fail to do with remarkable consistency: convey things to the people who are watching that they didn't already know or wouldn't typically notice. It's difficult to do in baseball, but it shouldn't be as difficult is the Sunday Night Baseball crew makes it seem.

Runnin' On Jorge

Entering this season, before everyone was questioning whether or not Jorge Posada could call a game, the biggest concern was whether or not his shoulder would be healthy enough to throw out potential base stealers. Given that Posada is 38 years old, there was no guarantee that his shoulder would make a full recovery from the surgery he underwent to repair a tear in his rotator cuff and damage to his glenoid labrum. It seems that opposing teams still aren't convinced that he is healthy.

Last year, in 241 innings behind the plate, teams attempted 41 steals against Posada. He was run on in 10.3% of the plate appearances where there was s stolen base opportunity, which was second in the the American League only to Toby Hall (11.2%). Kevin Cash (9.3%) was the only other catcher with significant playing time to be tested more that 8.4% of the time. The attempts against Posada were successful 34/41 times, and of the seven times they were caught, five times the runner was picked off before the pitcher delivered the ball. That left Jorge's percentage of actually throwing out runners at a horrific 5.5%.

This year, one of those trends has reversed dramatically. Teams still are running on Posada, in fact, at an even higher percentage than before. They have attempted to steal in 11.2% of stolen base opportunities, far and away the most in the AL. Jason Varitek has been challenged next most often, but at only 8.5% of the time.

Here is the good news. Despite teams running on Jorge at an even higher rate than last year, they are successful far less often. Would-be thieves have been nabbed in 15 out of 47 attempts, 10 by Posada. That's 32% caught stealing and 21% by Jorge himself. It's still early in the season, but judging by this metric, the results of his surgery appear to be pretty incredible.

Frankie Cervelli gets run on 7.4% of the time (7th among the 21 AL catchers with 200+ SBOs) but has thrown out 31%, and sports a total CS% of 38. Here are the top 10 by Run %.

Theoretically, caught stealing percentage and run percentage would have an inverse relationship because in aggregate, managers should be less likely to test the catchers most likely to throw out the runner (obviously). But a lot of managers still rely on their gut or other instincts as opposed to hard numbers, so the list doesn't really bear that out.

It would seem that opposing managers and speedsters are underestimating Posada pretty drastically. Since a pitcher picking a runner off in the process of trying to steal a base has little to do with who is behind the plate, the best way to determine who gets the least respect for throwing out runners would be to juxtapose Run % with the Catcher's Caught Stealing % (CS% by C above).

Using this method, here are the three most disrespected catchers in the AL, sorted by the differential between the two rankings:

Kenji Johjima has the highest caught stealing and caught stealing by catcher, yet he ranks in the top half in Run % (8th). Talk about No Respect... Kenji is a very low key player, stashed away up in Seattle which must work to his advantage because this is one of the cases where flying under the radar does you a lot of good.

Figure this one out: A.J. Pierzynski only gets run on 5.5% of the time (18th out the 21), but has only thrown out one runner this season. Attention AL Skippers... you might want to start running on A.J. Pierzynski. Navarro and Suzuki are far less egregious cases, but it should be noted that they haven't quite earned the respect they have been given.