Game 40 Recap

[Slight change of format for the recap for tonight. Because there is no way I'm doing a full blow-by-blow synopsis of this shitshow, the numbers within the chart represent the score at that point, with the Yankees total listed first.]

The first game of this series may have been the worst loss of the year, but this one wasn't too far behind. It had the triumvirate of suck, as the Yanks 1) fell behind early, 2) squandered a great chance to take the lead in the third inning and 3) captured our attention just long enough to let us down in the ninth.

Let's start with the good stuff.

• David Robertson pitched a fantastic two innings, striking out four without allowing a baserunner.
  
  
• Derek Jeter had three hits and drove in two runs.
  
  
• Juan Miranda had a homer and a triple in his first two at bats, but the triple was on a high fly ball that B.J. Upton lost in the lights would have been easily caught otherwise.
  
  
• I didn't see the first inning because I was doing yardwork. (Does that count?)
  
  
• Seriously, that's it.

And now for the bad:

• Just like last night, the Yankees gave up a run before recording an out. This time it was actually three runs, plunging their WPA to 24.8% before the offense had a chance to take a hack.
  
  
• The Yanks tied this game twice - at 3-3 and 4-4 - only to give the lead back to the Rays in the next half inning.
  
  
• Entering the third inning, the Yanks were trailing 3-2. Randy Winn led of with a base hit and Derek Jeter dropped one down for a bunt single. Brett Gardner followed with a bunt that he probably would have beat out but James Sheilds did the Yanks a favor by throwing it over Carlos Pena's head at first base, allowing Winn to score and the runners to advance to second and third with the heart of the lineup coming up. However, Mark Teixeira bounced one back to the pitcher and A-Rod and Cano both struck out swinging, leaving the runners stranded and the game tied.
  

• The Rays hit four home runs, two by Pena, who was six for his last sixty with two extra base hits heading into this game, and one by Ben Zobrist - his first of the year.
  
  
• Despite the fact that Andy Pettitte had thrown 101 pitches and allowed six runs through 5 innings, Joe Girardi let him come out for the sixth, apparently to match up with lefty Pena. And of course, Pettite promptly gave up Pena's first homer in 78 plate appearances.
  
  
• Chan Ho Park entered this game with a 30.8% HR/FB rate actually increased it in his first inning of work. After allowing two deep fly balls to Zobrist and Evan Longoria that necessitated pretty good defensive plays to stop them, Park grooved a changeup to Pena, who smacked his second longball of the evening.
  
  
• The Yanks showed some life in the 9th inning, but it was only a tease. Derek Jeter knocked in two runs with a double, bringing the tying run to the plate, but Brett Gardner grounded out to end the game. On a night like this, if you knew they weren't going to win, you might just wish they had went down in order and got it over with instead of getting our collective hopes up again, only to crush them for the third straight game.

The Yanks have now lost three in a row (all to divisional rivals) and four of their last five (all at home). They travel crosstown to face the Mets at Citi Field tomorrow night, but not before everyone in the New York media proceeds to jump to conclusions and start writing stories about how these two games prove how much better the Rays are than the Yankees. Can't wait.

AL East Q&A: Jonah Keri On The Rays

With real, live, meaningful baseballing action a mere 104 hours away, today we begin our quest to survey the landscape of the AL East. Over the course of this week, we'll be asking some questions of smart people who can lend their expert insights into the current state of the clubs the Yankees will be tangling with most often during the regular season.

First up, we are proud to welcome someone who as written for numerous reputable publications about baseball, basketball, football, dog shows, finance and (especially) Tim Raines. He's the editor of the Bloomberg Sports Blog, a consummate Canadian, the father of twins and the future author of the greatest book ever written about the Tampa Bay Rays (or the turnaround of any moribund expansion team into an AL Champ via shrewd financial and statistical maneuvering, for that matter). Folks, Jonah Keri is here to field our queries and kick this series off.

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Fack Youk: To some, the acquisition of reliever Rafael Soriano and his $7.5M salary from the Braves seemed a little out of character for the organization. What's your opinion of the Soriano pickup? Important move that could put them over the top or too much to pay for a reliever?

Jonah Keri: No team in baseball has a better understanding of the marginal value of a win than the Rays do. For the Royals, there's no way Soriano would be worth $7.5 million -- not necessarily because the Royals are a small-revenue team, but because the two wins a strong Soriano season gives you don't mean anything in the standings for a lousy KC team. For the Rays, though, two more wins in the standings could mean the difference between going home and playing for their second AL pennant in three years. They needed bullpen help, they gave up virtually nothing to get him (Aki Iwamura, who was leaving anyway, was signed and traded for fungible reliever Jesse Chavez, who was in turn flipped for Soriano), and J.P. Howell's likely trip to the DL, though not something the Rays could have predicted, only underscores how much they needed a strong reliever at the back end of the bullpen.

FY: Considering that Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are both entering what is likely to be their final year with the team, is there a feeling within the organization that this might be Tampa Bay's best chance to make a deep run into the playoffs for a while?

JK: Not exactly. This is the last chance to win with this particular group of players - that's why the payroll has jumped to $70 million-plus, despite the team's continuing struggles with revenue streams. The good news for 2011 is that the Rays will gain a ton of payroll room with Crawford, Pena, Soriano and a handful of lower-priced veterans coming off the books. They have top prospect Desmond Jennings poised to replace Crawford and an army of great arms in the minors who could be ready by next season to bolster the bullpen. The Rays were lacking for first base options to replace Pena, so they acquired Matt Sweeney as part of the Kazmir deal and signed Cuban first baseman Leslie Anderson to a four-year deal. If both of those options fail, even if they carry a $50 million payroll in 2011, the market for one-dimensional boppers has cratered so dramatically that they should be able to sign a 30-homer guy on the open market to fill the void. The Rays are always balancing present needs with future needs, and they're always acutely aware of how much financial flexibility they have at any given time.

FY: Does their optimal starting lineup have Ben Zobrist at 2nd base with Matt Joyce in right or Zobrist in the outfield while Sean Rodriguez plays second?

JK: The answer is, maybe both. The Rays can always opt to start Rodriguez vs. lefties at 2B with Zobrist in RF, and Joyce in RF vs. righties, with Zobrist at 2B. On the other hand, I'm a big Gabe Kapler fan, and he's proven he can mash lefties (.276/.379/.552 vs. LH last year), so the best option might be to send either Joyce or Rodriguez to the minors and let the situation play out naturally. Right now, Joyce is battling an injury, so the smart money is on Rodriguez getting first crack at it with Joyce starting on the DL. The Rays would be the last team to overreact to spring performance, but Rodriguez's big spring performance certainly hasn't hurt his case, especially given his impressive minor league track record. There's also the possibility that Pat Burrell never regains his old form, in which case the DH spot opens up and all of the above can get ample playing time.

FY: Dioner Navarro, Pat Burrell and B.J. Upton all had surprisingly bad years at the plate in '09. Which of those guys do you think is the best candidate to bounce back this year and why?

JK: Definitely Upton. His 2008 shoulder injury was probably more serious than he let on and may well have negatively impacted his performance last season. He should be healthier this season, he's just 25 years old, and he's put up strong offensive numbers in the past. The beauty part for the Rays is that his defense is good enough to make him a valuable player even if he struggles at the plate. But I think he bounces back nicely with the bat this year anyway.

FY: The Rays won 97 games, the AL East and the AL Pennant in 2008 and then finished just three games over .500 in 2009. Which of those results do you think will more closely resemble their finally tally in 2010?

JK: I'd bet on closer to 97 wins than 84, though it might be close to the mid-point. In a lesser division, I see the Rays as having 95-win talent, maybe even slightly better. Andrew Friedman has called this the most talented Rays team during his entire tenure, and with the additions of Soriano and Kelly Shoppach and maturation of young players like David Price and B.J. Upton, I agree. When you play an unbalanced schedule against the two other elite teams in the American League, though, that's going to take a bite out of your record. At least the Jays could offer an opportunity for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to all make up for beating on each other all season.

FY: Last one: What do you think the AL East standings are going to look like when the regular season is over?

JK: Yankees, Rays (Wild Card), Red Sox, Orioles, Jays.

FY: Thanks a million for your time, Jonah.

JK: Sure, thanks for having me.

Murphy's Game

Here are a few things some moron wrote on the internet in the past 24 hours:

• "Teixeria's glove probably helps, but Jeter has never made many throwing errors. He is on pace for 5 this year and has averaged 6.5 per season since 2001. His arm isn't the issue."
  
  
• About Scott Kazmir: "I would be surprised if he went more than 6 innings though, because he's only done it three times this year and the Yanks tend to work the count."
  
  
• About CC Sabathia: "Historically a second half pitcher, now is the time of year that the big fella tends to find his stride. He's thrown 14 innings since the All-Star Break, allowed 3 runs and accumulated two wins. He was just getting warmed up before.

If only Derek Jeter hadn't made a throwing error, Scott Kazmir didn't make it into the 8th inning and CC Sabathia didn't get bounced in the 5th after giving up 5 runs, I would have been right about all of those!

You can't get all the breaks in baseball and I guess if you could control it, you'd have an 11 game stretch were more everything goes right and then load all your bad luck into one game when every single event subject to chance blows up in your face.

The Yanks didn't help their cause either by making two errors that went in the scorebook, and a few more they slipped under the table.

In addition to Jeter's throwing error, A-Rod launched one into the stands in the 3rd inning which allowed Carl Crawford score and left Evan Longoria standing on second with no one out. Incredibly, Joe Maddon had his clean up hitter, Ben Zobrist bunt Longoria over to third only to be stranded there by a Pat Burrell strikeout and a Carlos Pena grounder. Seeing this amazingly weak managerial move by Joe Maddon backfire on him was pretty much the only bright spot of this game for me.

Hideki Matsui had a baserunning gaffe in the fourth after the he drove in a run with a double. He took a wide turn thinking he could advance to second base, but Dioner Navarro read the play perfectly and picked him off.

Nick Swisher attempted a catch barreling into foul territory in the 5th but dropped it, and since his foot was in fair territory when he touched the ball, it was ruled a fair ball. Zobrist advanced to third on the play and it wasn't scored an error. An inning later he let a ball roll past him down the rightfield line allowing Jason Bartlett to score. No "E" on that one, either.

The Rays' defense was the polar opposite. Carl Crawford seemingly covered almost every inch of left field, B.J. Upton nabbed a deep liner and Jason Barlett looked slick at shortstop. The Yanks hit into double plays in both the 8th and 9th innings. It just wasn't their day.

As noted above, it wasn't really my day either. This is one of those games where you take your lumps and move on. You hope you used up all your bad juju at once and get back at it in the morning.

And It Was All Downhill From There...

Due to the magic of FanGraph's WPA charts, we can see exactly where it started going South for the Yanks. They had a 75% chance of winning the game entering the 5th inning, but unfortunately it would never get any higher than that.

Early in the game for the Yanks, the offense was entirely ignited by A-Rod. After going homerless over his last 43 at-bats, he smashed the first pitch of the second inning from David Price into the home bullpen.

During the broadcast, David Cone said he talked to Joe Maddon about moving Price, who had great success coming out of the bullpen at the end of last season, back there at any point. Maddon responded that there was never any thought, as he was simply too valuable in the rotation. Although he wasn't efficient today, it was still obvious why the Rays were of that opinion. I wonder how many fans in Tampa are clamoring for him to go back to the 'pen.

The Yanks did their best to escalate Price's pitch count and chase him from the game. With the score still 1-0 in the 4th inning, A-Rod worked a one out, 7 pitch walk . With Posada at the plate, A-Rod got a great jump and took off for second. Dioner Navarro's throw sailed into CF (his second throwing error to that point), and allowed Alex to take third easily. With the infield in, Cano hit a sharp grounder to third, which A-Rod again got a good jump on and Willie Aybar was forced to take the out at first. 2-0 Yanks.

The Rays got to Sabathia in the top of the 5th. Ben Zobrist led off with a homer to left. Joe Dillon followed with what should have a been a single, but ended up standing on third after Johnny Damon threw ball away over Cano's head for no apparent reason since Dillion wasn't going for second. Dillion scored on a sac fly by Navarro and the Rays were right back in the contest.

The third run of the day for the Yanks came on yet another throwing error by Navarro (there were a total of six errors in the game). Melky Cabrera doubled to start off the fifth, and was advanced to third by a Francisco Cervelli sac bunt. Navarro attempted a snap throw to third from his knees, but it bounced past Aybar, and Melky scored easily. Sliding back to the bag, though, the back of Carbera's neck met Aybar's shin. On the way to the plate, he held his hand to the area behind his right ear, but remained in the game.

In a matter of three batters in the sixth inning, the game turned dramatically. After a walk by B.J. Upton and a single by Carl Crawford, Willy Aybar deposited one into the left-centerfield seats to put the Rays up 5-3. It was a bit of a shocker, as CC had been in control for much of the outing.

Price took the mound to start the sixth, but was removed with two outs after having already thrown 105 pitches. Despite only 53 going for strikes, he was in line for the win. The Rays held the Yanks down for the next two innings, but that would change in the bottom of the eighth.

Mark Teixeira left off the inning against Grant Balfour and uncorked a blast as close to we have seen to reaching the upper deck in right field which put the Yanks within one. A-Rod was up next, worked a full count but popped out. Then Posada, Cano, and Swisher all reached base on a walk, a single and a walk. This set the stage, once again, for Melky Cabrera, the resident clutchologist. He grounded into was what very nearly an inning ending double play, but edged the throw at first. Replays showed it was basically a dead heat, so Melky was lucky to get the call and the Yankees to tie the game.

All the while CC Sabathia lay in wait. He was bailed out of a B.J. Upton walk by a caught stealing in the 7th and needed only 8 pitches to work through the eighth, leaving him at 101 for the day. Entering the ninth inning, I felt that Girardi should have left Sabathia in (I sent a message to our Joe on GChat, for the record). Instead, he went with "the book" which dictates a manager bring in his closer in a tie game in the ninth inning at home.

Despite allowing 5 runs, Sabathia had pitched reasonably well. He had only allowed 5 hits and smoothly maneuvered through the 7th and 8th. He could have been left in a batter by batter basis with Mo ready to be deployed from the bullpen.

Alas, Girardi did not, and Mo gave up a triple that died at the outfield fence to Ben Zobrist who scored on a single by Joe Dillon in the next at bat. That unlikely duo combined to score four of Tampa's runs after a two out single to B.J. Upton. It was Mo's worst outing of the year (3ER, 2/3IP), nudging out another game against the Rays on May 7th, during which he allowed back to back home runs to Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, the only other time this year he did not complete at least one inning. Two inherited runners scored on Phil Coke's watch and by the time three outs were recorded, four men had come to the plate. For what it's worth, 6 of the 9 runs Mariano has allowed this year have come in non-save situations.

The Yanks would not go quietly in the bottom of the ninth. Jeter led off with a single which Johnny Damon followed with a double over the head of B.J. Upton in center. Big Teix mashed a double in the right field gap off of Dan Wheeler, which scored two and brought up A-Rod as the tying run with no one out. Alex grounded out without advancing the runner and passed the buck to Posada. Jorge saw 8 pitches (2 strikes that were visibly below his knees) from Wheeler before lacing a liner right at B.J. Upton who was positioned in deep center. Joe Maddon used his sixth pitcher of the game, former Yankee Randy Choate, to get the last out against Cano. Robby alos worked a full count and lined out to Upton, who momentarily look like he misplayed it.

The ninth inning lasted a cool 47 minutes, but the game wrapped up at 4:44, which should leave Matt enough time to hit up that OTB on the way back home from the Bronx.