Collusion or Delusion?

The word "collusion" gets thrown around a lot in baseball circles, most recently in reference to this gentleman, and shortly before that, this guy and as Joe said in the comments it's only a matter of time before it's said in conjunction with Manny. In all three cases, I would tend to take things at face value and conclude that these are 30 teams all acting rationally and coming to the same conclusions.

An interesting fact that I was unaware of: It was Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale who created the need for these regulations by demanding joint negotiations with the Dodgers prior to the 1966 season (Wikipedia). As a result of the leverage provided by these transparent negotiations, the two pitchers received the two largest contracts in baseball history at the time. The owners were obviously none too pleased, and wanted to ensure this was not allowed to happen again.

In 1968, when Marvin Miller negotiated the first Collective Bargaining Agreement, he ensured that the owners were not allowed to collude either. The final language in the CBA reads "Players shall not act in concert with other Players and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs."

According to Roger I. Abrams in his book Legal Bases, the owners didn't see how this restriction could ever apply to them. They were wrong. In the age of free agency, players gained the upper hand and were now able to negotiate with all other teams, and the resulting competition drove salaries upward, theoretically.

In 1986, a year when only four free agents switched teams and free agent salaries declined by 16%, the Player's Association filed a grievance against the owners, claiming that they had been acting together so as not to bid for each others players. The arbitration process consisted of 32 days of hearings spread out over almost a year, and in the end Arbitrator Tom Roberts ruled in favor of the players. Again according to Legal Bases, the rationale was that:

"Reaching a formal agreement was only one of many ways for two or more parties to act in concert. Some 'common scheme or plan' would be sufficient to provide a violation of that parties' bargain."

Which makes me think back to this. Remember when Bud Selig had ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker speak to owners and executives of all 30 teams in November?

For roughly 45 minutes. According to several people who attended the meeting, Volcker discussed what led to the current economic plight and where things might be headed. His assessment was not upbeat, the attendees said.

At the end of his presentation, Volcker took several questions from owners and officials but did not specifically address how the economy could affect the 30 teams, big market and small, in the months to come.

Those who spoke about Volcker’s remarks did so on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be linked to the public discussion of a private meeting.

The off-season was already under way, but basically no free agent signings had occurred yet. On a certain level, you have to think that Selig knew that Volcker's assessment wasn't going to be "upbeat". They certainly must have spoken recently about the state of the economy before Selig asked him to address the owners.

Selig said he first broached the idea of having Volcker address the owners when he saw him at a World Series game last month.

You think they might have had some sort of a discussion about the economy when they ran into each other at the World Series? The World Series obviously took place in October, a month when the market posted triple digit fluctuations in 20 out of 23 days of trading. If Selig respected Volcker's opinion enough to have him address the franchise owners of his mega-billion dollar corporation, then he would surely have sought some expert insight in such turbulent financial times. Men of much smaller intellects and bank accounts were discussing the economy at that time. It was the most important and prevalent conversation echoing throughout the country and had been since the Lehman bankruptcy over a month before.

So what I'm getting at is... doesn't that sound like "acting in concert" or at least promoting or encouraging "a common scheme or plan"? Not surprisingly, neither Selig or Volcker have commented on the what was said during the 45 minute address. Even if Volcker didn't "specifically address how the economy could affect the 30 teams", doesn't this at least create the appearance of impropriety?

Maybe teams would have come to the same conclusions and almost universally ratcheted down spending (save for the Yankees, who have historically taken their own stance against the MLB). But if you were an executive or owner, wouldn't you be more reluctant to spend after hearing a pessimistic assessment of the economy from an ex-Federal Reserve Chairman who had "warned against the credit collapse for several years"?

Poetic Justice For Manny?

As the number of suitors for Manny diminishes, his decision to force his way out of Boston looks more and more foolish. With the Yankees, Angels and Mets most likely out of the bidding, the Red Sox certainly not in the discussion and wavering interest from the Dodgers and Nationals, who will drive up the price on the aging slugger?

The corner OF market is semi-saturated with guys like Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell. GMs of small or mid-market AL teams like the Blue Jays, Rays, and Mariners, with whom Manny would slot in nicely as DH, have been reluctant to spend, due to the state of the economy.

I thought this was just a media talking point, but it seems the way that Manny left Boston really has called into question his competitive ethic. Some think the media scrutiny and intense pressure of Boston got to him, while others question his desire to compete on a losing team for a full season. Unfortunately for Manny, the Nationals have the money to spend and a desperate need for a face to their franchise but fall into the later category.

Before the Yanks signed Teix I was rationalizing (and sort of hoping for) the decision to acquire Manny. However thanks to that $161M, I have now rid myself of that cognitive dissonance and am able to enjoy some schadenfreude and a hearty guffaw at MbM's expense.

I can't find a link, but I remember a local beat writer saying that the decision to opt out was supposedly inspired by A-Rod needling Manny at this year's All-Star game about how the last two years of his contract were team options and not player options. If this is true, it might be the single greatest thing A-Rod has done as a Yankee. So far, it has caused the Sox to eat a massive amount of salary and move players they would have rather kept. It has already resulted in the one guy who has done the Yankees the most harm in my lifetime to toil in free agent purgatory with an ever decreasing list of possible reprieves, and may ultimatley lead to him signing with a worse team for less money. Beautiful.

Impromptu Movie Review: The Wrestler

No spoiler alert needed, I'm gonna keep this as non-specific as possible.

The first time I heard (read) of The Wrestler was in Bill Simmons' column in ESPN The Magazine, which I was reading in my apartment, the bathroom.

Supposed to be a joke. Give it a second. Okay.

I haven't cared about professional wrestling since I was about seven years old, but found this movie to be throughly enjoyable. The reason they can call the movie something generic like "The Wrestler" is that the shadowy world of professional wrestling has never been cinematically delved into with so much as a mini series. It achieved a level of realness and believability rarely attained outside of The Wire, and as Simmons says, Rourke was exquisitely cast:

To be honest, I still can't figure out how we didn't get Nicolas Cage in this movie. For $15 million, he gladly would have bleached his Con Air hairdo, bulked up to Kiss of Death proportions, made a few Nic Cage faces—and given us a thoroughly mediocre film. Director Darren Aronofsky should be applauded for avoiding the big-budget route, instead scaling down to an indie and rolling the dice with Rourke. Because Rourke carries this movie. Every frame.

I'm not a movie guy, and aside from some pretty grizzly, bloody scenes, it was awesome. Highly recommended.

And wow... two of my last five posts on a blog called "Fack Youk" praised the Red Sox and agreed with Bill Simmons. Fuck me.

Ed Hochuli Still Screwing People

From Greg A. Bedard of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, via the NFP:

When referee Ed Hochuli reversed the ruling on the field that Ryan Grant had scored an 80-yard touchdown run in the third quarter Sunday against the Detroit Lions –and instead had just a 21-yard gain -- Grant lost $1.35 million.

Grant could have earned a $1.5 million bonus if he reached 1,250 yards for the season. He only earned $500,000 for finishing with 1,203. Grant also could have earned another $600,000 for placing in the top five among NFC rushers. Grant finished sixth – 35 yards behind Matt Forte of the Bears – to pocket $150,000.

It's actually more about instant replay than Hochuli, but why not pile on?

Possible Pilfery?

By the time the dust settles, I think the number of NFL coaching vacancies will be high enough to virtually guarantee that the Giants lose a coordinator this offseason. According to Ralph Vacchiano, the Lions, Rams, Browns and Jets have all asked or will ask for permission to speak with Steve Spagnuolo and the Raiders (at least) want to talk to Kevin Gilbride.

Does this add to the urgency of this year's playoff run? We've seen the Giants succeed while missing pretty significant pieces on the field, but is it really the schemes and play calls of the coordinators that have been driving the Giants recent run of success?

Ed Valentine of Big Blue View, looks at some possible replacements for Spags, should he depart for his own gig. He comes up with two guys already on the staff, Bill Sheridan (LB Coach), and Peter Giunta (Secondary Coach) and two recently fired NFL coaches with defensive resumes and Giants ties, Romeo Crennel and Mike Nolan.

Spagnulo's scheme seems to be crafted perfectly fit the talent on the team, so it would make sense to promote someone from within, who has better knowledge of the scheme to begin with. On the other hand guys like Crennel and Nolan have leveraged their past success as D-Coordinators in head coaching positions and could probably still be successful with the talent on the Giants' roster.

Only time will tell how much of a hit the Giants will take next season when their staff is pillaged by the dregs of the league. Maybe, one of the reasons the NFL has greater parity than the MLB has less to do with the salary cap, and more to do with the fact that coaching is actually important, and everytime a team has sustained success, the rest of the league trips over themselves to steal their coordinators.

Update: 11:40AM -

Wow. Robert Boland of The National Football Post has an incredibly comprehensive breakdown of actual as well as possible head coaching vacancies and potential candidates from each team.

What If...

Let's just start by saying, this isn't going to happen. I fully realize that. But Plaxico Burress' suspension is up, and he could technically starting working out with the team again. I also believe it is at the Giant's discretion to take him off the Non-Football Injury List and he could play at some point this post season.

The organization would sacrifice a lot of credibility and take major heat for it in the media and Rodger Goodell may even step in with a suspension of his own, which is why it won't happen, but as a fan would you like to see Plax on the field for the playoffs?

I would. The guy made a mistake, a very stupid mistake for which he is going to pay the consequences for at some point. It was a victimless (self-victimizing?) incident, although it certainly could have gone another way. Just this year, other players have taken the field while their legal charges were pending including Matt Jones of the Jaguars (cocaine) and the even the five guys who were involved in the Star-Caps scandal.

Would the enhanced media presence and tough questions swarming around Burress outweigh his ability to stretch the field and take a defender out of the box? If he's even 85 or 90% healthy, I think the on-field advantage wins out.

Sawx Almost Stole Offseason Thunder

Via River Ave. Blues, both Jon Heyman and Tom Verducci are reporting that the Red Sox opened discussions with the Marlins in an attempt to re-acquire Hanley Ramirez. Florida apparently brought up Jacoby Elsbury and Clay Bucholz, but it is unclear where the negotiations hit a standstill. Joesph P. at RAB says:

I know some of you are thinking it, and I’m sure someone has said it in the comments section at MLBTR, but it’s not what you think. This is not Boston retaliating. Signing Carl Pavano and trading for Randy Johnson? Retaliation for 2004. Bidding 27 freaking million dollars on Kei Igawa? Retaliation for Daisuke Matsuzaka (or at least one could make the argument). Attempting a trade for Hanley Ramirez? Not retaliation for the Yankees nabbing Teixeira.

Well said. I think it was retaliation in timing only. I would think that the Teixeira signing might have provided some inspiration, but retaliation is typically foolish and impulsive. Like much of what the Red Sox have done recently, like hiring Bill James, this was a brilliant, calculated maneuver, which would have stolen a whole bunch of off-season thunder from the Yanks. If the Marlins' return was Bucholz, Ellsbury and some lower prospects, it looks initially like a good deal from both sides, just like the deal that sent Ramirez to Miami originally. It would have made me reevaluate my inclination that the Yankees are favorites to take the AL East crown.

The Sox have a loaded farm system and maybe I'm underrating the two principle components of the trade, but it seems like they have a great deal of talent at the AAA level and at a certain point, you can have too many prospects for too few major league spots. It's a nice problem to have, and hopefully the Yanks are headed in that direction as well.

I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of baseball history, and its kinda late, so I think I'm just going to pose a question instead of researching it. Has a similar trade (where teams go back and forth with a player of Ramirez's magnitude) ever happened? The guy gets slept on because he plays in Florida, but look at these numbers for a 24 year old shortstop, playing in a pitchers ballpark (.308/.379/.527 career line). And the Sawx already have Jed Lowrie at short and were thinking about Hanley to CF. Moving a SS to CF, what a novel idea...

Fewest Turnovers EVARRR!11!!!11

Via Ralph Vacciano's fantastic Daily News Giants blog, Blue Screen (pretty far down the post):

By not turning the ball over yesterday, the Giants ended the season with just 13 turnovers (10 interceptions, three lost fumbles). That’s the lowest number ever for an NFL team in a 16-game season, eclipsing the mark of 14 set by the 1990 Giants. Interestingly, a few hours later, the Miami Dolphins tied the record. They entered Week 17 with just 12 turnovers, but turned the ball over once against the Jets yesterday, giving them 13, too.

Really? I've only heard this mentioned in conjunction with the Dolphins. The Giants powerful running, strong pass rush and protection of the ball are all attributes that are going to aid them in their title defense, especially with the road to the Super Bowl going through the windy Meadowlands. (And are a big reason that at least one of these coaching vacancies that Joe mentioned this morning is probably going to rob the Giants of a coordinator)

Carl Crawford: 2010

Last week, my esteemed GMail Chat compatriot and future Fack Youk contributor, Cliff and I were debating whether the Rays would pick up Carl Crawford's $10M option for the 2010 season.

Today, Tim Dierkes at MLBTR put together a list of players with Club Options for 2010 and listed Carl Crawford under "Likely To Be Exercised", which is what Cliff had been saying last week.

Looking Cot's MLB Contracts, my argument is that there are several other players with escalating salaries that the Rays can not get out of paying, via an option. Carlos Pena is making $10.125M in 2010, Scott Kazmir is owed $8M, Dan Wheeler $3.5, and being that they are a young team, they are going to be facing some arbitration-forced raises. The Rays had a payroll of a little under $44M this year and if they include Crawford along with the guys above, they will be paying $31.625M for four players.

There are other factors at play here. The Rays have back loaded most of their long term contracts, all of which were signed before the breadth of the current economic downturn was apparent. Much hinges on the Rays ability as an organization to leverage their postseason success last year into a larger and more profitable fan base. Also, Florida has been hit specifically hard by the sub-prime crisis, and it would not surprise me to see the familiar site of an empty Tropicana Dome this year partially as a result of that. If the Rays can pull themselves up from the one of the very lowest grossing teams in the MLB to something closer to a mid-market team, they will be able to retain some of their relatively expensive players.

Like Thurgood Jenkins said in Half Baked, "Samson Simpson, ah stick bah my storiee. (If I wasn't Jamaican, den why would ah be wearin dis hat?)".

Joe Girardi, Take Notice

Since the baseball season ended, stories have drifted out of the Yankees Clubhouse, indicating that the atmosphere was tense and the players didn't like Girardi's tight laced managing style. Sounds pretty similar to the situation with Mangini, which led a Jet player to compare a trip to Mangini's office to the principal's office.

The incomparable Peter Abraham hinted about the comparison in this post without directly saying it. Mike Silva has a much more comprehensive take.

Please, Mr. Girardi, look at the coaches of the two NY football teams, and ask yourself who sets a better example for leading professional athletes. Is it Mangini who has had some success, but is disliked by his players and not transparent with the media? Or is it Tom Coughlin, who adjusted the way he did things by listening more to his players, at a time when almost no one is any walk of life makes major adjustments? Just look at the results.

A Question For Eric Mangini

Is it "schtill all about the processch"?

Cause this seems like it was about the results. It was interesting to hear Mangini go on and on about "the processch" in his mind numbing press conferences, and his supremely bland radio interviews with Michael Kay. In doing this, he was parroting his mentor Bill Belichick, who is also supremely bland guy to listen to in press conferences. Except there is one difference.

MANGINI'S PROCESS DOESN'T WORK.

When someone is committed to their way of doing things, it initially sounds respectable, and gives you the indication that the person is diligent, and disciplined. But the truth is, this is an extremely arrogant way of managing other people. I can think of another person who has a ton of faith in his "process", and is very inflexible. His name is George W. Bush and if America could have fired him 3/4 of the way through his presidency, I think we probably would have.

Mike Vaccarro gave a great stat on the Max Kellerman show this morning. He said the Jets outscore their opponents in the first, second, and fourth quarters, but are outscored soundly in the third quarter. His theory was that Mangini was failing to make adjustments at the half and the opposing coaches were exploiting that. When you stick to your convictions, you are predictable.

Belichick sticks to the process in terms of preparing for the game, but is possibly the best coach in the league at adjusting to the other teams' gameplan. Tom Coughlin changed his process at an insanely late stage of his career, deferring at times to veteran leaders on the team, and loosening the reigns a bit. I don't need to remind anyone where that took the Giants.

There are plenty of good times to stick to your convictions, be disciplined and adhere to a certain process. It could be a daily routine of exercise and eating. It could be the way that you accomplish a great number of simple tasks at work. Unfortunately for "ManGenius", working in an outrageously competitive business, when your competitors want nothing more than to out-strategize you, is not one of them.

Sawx Sign Brad Penny

Per Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, the Sawx signed RHP Brad Penny, formerly of the LA Dodgers and Florida Marlins.

The agreement, a one-year deal with a base salary of $5MM, will be finalized Monday. Incentives and performance bonuses can increase the total deal another $3MM if Penny pitches more than 160 innings, McAdam reports.

Good News For Yankee Fans: Penny's Interleague numbers: 7-11 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 appearances against American League opponents. Penny has spent his entire career in the National League.

Based on his contract, I expect him to occupy one of Boston's rotation spots. As with all deals, I like the incentives. However his interleague numbers suggest that this Penny should be more worthless than the one cent currency denomination of the United States.

Here's $8MM more that could have went to Teixeira. Brillinat, Sawx, brilliant!

NFL Coaching Carousel Turns

As I write this, it looks like 3 NFL coaches have been ousted following abysmal seasons in which much was expected of them. Wade Phillips, Puppet Extraordinaire, appears to be safe. With the success of rookie head coaches Mike Smith, Tony Sparano and John Harbaugh, I would expect a lot of new coordinators/position coaches to be hired instead of head coach retreads.

Eric Mangini, New York Jets: After beating the hated AFC East rival Patriots and the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans, the Jets lost 4 out of their 5 to Denver, Miami, San Francisco, and Seattle to finish at 9-7. Mangini in his three seasons with the Jets was 23-26 and 0-1 in the playoffs. Chalk this firing up to Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum trying to cover his rear and deflect any criticism from him for signing #1 NFL Girly Man Brett Favre. As for the future, the “Mangenius” should have no trouble latching on as a defensive coordinator with a solid franchise or as a head coach at a destination like Detroit. It’s too bad the Sopranos is over so he can no longer make guest appearences. However, maybe James Gandolfini can teach him a few ways to off Favre for killing his season and coaching career.

Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions: Coach Marinelli’s Lions finished 0-16 in 2008, the only team in NFL history to do such and 10-38 in 3 seasons. Don’t blame Marinelli for all of this, folks. This is Matt Millen’s work. Marinelli should latch on somewhere as a position coach, without his son-in-law in tow. No decent coach in his right mind should take this job.

Romeo Crennel, Cleveland Browns: After finishing 10-6 last season, the Browns were expected to be a playoff team. Instead, three starting quarterbacks and 16 dropped Braylon Edwards passes later, Crennel’s team finished 4-12, good for last in the AFC North. Despite the Browns having had 10-12 players who were either selected to the Pro Bowl or who were Pro Bowl alternates during the past two years, along with Romeo, GM Phil Savage is also expected to be canned. Like Mangini, Crennel should latch on with a team as a defensive coordinator. The Browns are expected to make runs at former Steelers coach Bill Cowher (I doubt he has any interest coaching in the same division as the Steelers) and Patriots vice president of personnel Scott Pioli.