Joe Mauer convincingly and deservedly won the AL MVP this afternoon. He was named first on 27 of 28 ballots, and second on the other. He finished with 387 points.
The remaining first place vote went to Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera received only one second place vote, but was as low as tenth on three ballots and finished fourth overall. Coincidentally, the only AL Cy Young first place vote that didn't go to Zack Greinke or Felix Hernandez went to Detroit's Justin Verlander, who didn't finish higher than third on any other ballot. Looks like someone in Detroit should have his voting privileges revoked.
[UPDATE 4:30 PM: The Cabrera vote did not come from a Detroit writer, but from a member of the Seattle chapter, Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News. Whouda thunk it?]
For the Yankees, Mark Teixeira finished second, 162 points behind Mauer with 225. His 15 second place votes were the most cast, and his six third place votes were the second highest total. He was named on all 28 ballots and finished no lower than eighth on any of them.
Derek Jeter finished third, with 193 points. His nine second place votes were the second most cast, and his five third place votes tied for third most cast. He too was named on all 28 ballots, finishing 6th or higher on all but three of them.
Alex Rodriguez finished tied for tenth with 31 points. He was named on seven ballots, with highest vote being a single one for third place.
Mariano Rivera was named on four ballots, with two sixth place votes, and one each for seventh and eighth, finishing with 17 points. Robinson Cano received three seventh place votes, CC Sabathia a single seventh place vote. No other Yankees were named on any ballots.
Blog favorite Kevin Youkilis finished sixth. He was named on 25 ballots and received two votes for second place. Full results are available here.
For all the grunting and groaning all year about who should and who would win the post-season awards, let's give the voters a bit of credit. They've picked the right guy for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, and now the AL MVP as well. A win for Albert Pujols in the NL MVP vote tomorrow would make it a clean sweep for the big four awards.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Looking Back On The Arizona Fall League
The Arizona Fall League finished up Saturday with the Peoria Javelinas taking the Championship Game. All the Yankee prospects played for the Surprise Rafters, who finished two games behind Peoria in the West Division.
Seven Yankee farmhands took part in the league:
Traditionally, the AZFL has been a very offense-friendly league. Curtis led the league in SLG and OPS, finished second in AVG and OBP, and tied for fourth in HR and TB. Laird finished sixth in SLG, seventh in OPS, second in HR, tied for third in 2B, and tied for fourth in TB. Romine played in just four games due to a finger injury, but it isn't considered to be serious.
For the pitchers, Kennedy led the league in IP and tied for the lead league in starts. His 28 Ks trailed the league leader by one and he had the fifth best WHIP amongst starters. With 59.2 Major League innings to his credit, Kennedy was one of the most seasoned players in the league and it likely contributed to his sterling performance. Still, Kennedy's performance in such an offense-friendly league is an encouraging sign as he continues his comeback from aneurysm surgery in May. The mere fact that he got another 30 innings in after missing nearly the entire season is great for him.
Dunn finished tied for seventh in Ks, despite throwing at least eight fewer innings than all those ahead of him. Of course, as we addressed in September, the problem with Dunn is the number of free passes he issues. He had the eleventh most walks in the league despite working exclusively in relief. In his defense though, a handful of pitchers ahead of him on the BB leader board had walk rates similar to or worse than Dunn's 8.71 per 9.
We've seen both Kennedy and Dunn before, and at least Kennedy - if not both - figure to see time in the Bronx in 2010. Romine is amongst the Yankees' top three or five prospects, won the Florida State League Player of the Year in 2009, and figures to be about two years away. Laird is the younger brother of Tigers' catcher Gerald Laird. He's just completed his third pro season with high A Tampa, and may be moved to first base.
Curtis, Duff, and Kroenke are all Rule 5 eligible and none were protected when the Yankees made their roster moves Friday. Despite his strong showing, Curtis is considered a non-propsect, who like Kennedy, may have been so successful because of his level of experience relative to the league. Duff throws gas, but walks a lot of batters, didn't make it above A ball until this year, and will 27 by year's end. Kroenke has promise and was taken and returned in the Rule 5 last year, but the Yankees already have four other lefty relievers on their 40 man roster.
I don't have a particular problem with leaving any of them exposed, but I don't see much difference between them and the lower tier players that were added to the 40 man. Still, I do find it odd that the Yankees thought enough of them to use three of their seven Fall League allotments on them, but not enough to protect any of them.
Seven Yankee farmhands took part in the league:
Colin Curtis, OF: .397/.472/.731, 19 R, 11 BB, 7 doubles, 2 triples, 5 HR
Brandon Laird, 3B: .333/.406/.633, 18 R, 10 BB, 9 doubles, 6 HR
Austin Romine, C: .400/.438/.400, 2 R, 1 BB
Ian Kennedy, SP: 4.25 ERA, 28 K, 5 BB, 1 HR, in 29.2 IP over 7 starts
Zach Kroenke, RP: 5.28 ERA, 14 K, 4 BB, 2 HR in 15.1 IP over 11 appearances
Mike Dunn: RP: 4.35 ERA, 20 K, 10 BB, 2 HR in 10.1 IP over 10 appearances
Grant Duff, RP: 2.89 ERA, 4 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, in 9.1 IP over 10 appearances
Traditionally, the AZFL has been a very offense-friendly league. Curtis led the league in SLG and OPS, finished second in AVG and OBP, and tied for fourth in HR and TB. Laird finished sixth in SLG, seventh in OPS, second in HR, tied for third in 2B, and tied for fourth in TB. Romine played in just four games due to a finger injury, but it isn't considered to be serious.
For the pitchers, Kennedy led the league in IP and tied for the lead league in starts. His 28 Ks trailed the league leader by one and he had the fifth best WHIP amongst starters. With 59.2 Major League innings to his credit, Kennedy was one of the most seasoned players in the league and it likely contributed to his sterling performance. Still, Kennedy's performance in such an offense-friendly league is an encouraging sign as he continues his comeback from aneurysm surgery in May. The mere fact that he got another 30 innings in after missing nearly the entire season is great for him.
Dunn finished tied for seventh in Ks, despite throwing at least eight fewer innings than all those ahead of him. Of course, as we addressed in September, the problem with Dunn is the number of free passes he issues. He had the eleventh most walks in the league despite working exclusively in relief. In his defense though, a handful of pitchers ahead of him on the BB leader board had walk rates similar to or worse than Dunn's 8.71 per 9.
We've seen both Kennedy and Dunn before, and at least Kennedy - if not both - figure to see time in the Bronx in 2010. Romine is amongst the Yankees' top three or five prospects, won the Florida State League Player of the Year in 2009, and figures to be about two years away. Laird is the younger brother of Tigers' catcher Gerald Laird. He's just completed his third pro season with high A Tampa, and may be moved to first base.
Curtis, Duff, and Kroenke are all Rule 5 eligible and none were protected when the Yankees made their roster moves Friday. Despite his strong showing, Curtis is considered a non-propsect, who like Kennedy, may have been so successful because of his level of experience relative to the league. Duff throws gas, but walks a lot of batters, didn't make it above A ball until this year, and will 27 by year's end. Kroenke has promise and was taken and returned in the Rule 5 last year, but the Yankees already have four other lefty relievers on their 40 man roster.
I don't have a particular problem with leaving any of them exposed, but I don't see much difference between them and the lower tier players that were added to the 40 man. Still, I do find it odd that the Yankees thought enough of them to use three of their seven Fall League allotments on them, but not enough to protect any of them.
Forty Spots, Little Freedom
Good morning Fackers. So how was your weekend? Mine - I took Friday off and shot up to enemy territory - Boston. Got to hang out with some old friends, ate some kickass BBQ at Redbones, got to bust on a good friend who's a big Phillie fan, and watched another friend drink a fifth of Captain Morgan 100 proof straight before 11 AM and still make it through the game on two feet. Very impressive. Less impressive was BC's performance - five picks, first home loss of the season, and officially eliminated from the ACC Atlantic race. Also unimpressive was the scene at our tailgate - pretty weak, it ain't like it used to be. But hey, at least we have a short workweek, capped by my absolute favorite holiday. Now, back to baseball.
As we mentioned last week, midnight Friday morning was the deadline for clubs to finalize their 40 man rosters in preparation for next month's Rule 5 Draft. It took several hours for the news to get out, but the Yankees' moves were announced late in the day Friday.
As expected, top prospect Austin Jackson, second baseman/utility man Kevin Russo, and starting pitcher Ivan Nova were all added. Surprisingly though, the Yankees also chose to protect an additional four players: middle infielders Reegie Corona and Eduardo Nunez, and pitchers Romulo Sanchez and Hector Noesi.
With Andy Pettitte finally filing for free agency and Shelley Duncan being outrighted to Scranton, Friday's moves leave the Yankees with 39 spots spoken for on their 40 man roster. Technically, this gives them the freedom to select one player in the Rule 5 Draft - but I wouldn't count on that happening. Firstly, the Yankees are not constructed in a manner that would make it easy for them to fulfill the Rule 5 requirement of keeping a selected player on their Major League roster for all of 2010. Secondly, the Yankees are going to need that one roster spot and likely a few others to add Major League free agents this off-season - which makes the 40 man decisions all the more curious.
The Yankees currently have seven players from the 2009 roster who are free agents: Pettitte, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr, Eric Hinske, and Xavier Nady. While Nady was a non-factor all year as an injured player, and back-ups like Molina, Hairston, and Hinske can be replaced by internal options (Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Russo, Juan Miranda), Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui all figure to be either resigned or replaced by a comparable Major League talent. And since any free agent inked to a Major League contract needs to be added to the 40 man roster, the Yankees are going to need more than just that one open roster spot.
Thus, it's curious as to why the Yankees chose to protect so many players. I'm sure there was sound reasoning behind it, but it isn't readily evident to me. At the most basic level, the Yankees protected these seven players because they wanted to ensure they would retain their services. But because of the nature of the Rule 5 draft, sometimes the best way to retain a Rule 5 eligible player is to expose him - particularly in the cases of "fringey" players like Corona, Nunez, Sanchez, and Noesi. Last year for example, the Yankees lost four players in the Rule 5 Draft: Corona, Nova, Zach Kroenke, and Jason Jones. All four were returned to the Yankees as they were unable to win Major League jobs with the clubs that selected them.
So in choosing to protect protect the likes of Corona, Nunez, Sanchez, and Noesi the Yankees are saying not only that they want to retain these players, but also that they're reasonably confident that the players could win Major League jobs elsewhere. I find this surprising, as Noesi has pitched just 41.1 innings in High A, Nunez has spent just a single season as high as AA, and Corona struggled terribly in a 44 game cameo at AAA last year, earning a demotion back to AA. The Yankees might have had a good chance to retain all four by leaving them exposed while keeping some flexibility with the 40 man roster.
Also curious is that in adding Corona and Nunez, the Yankees now have a glut of utility infielders on their 40 man. Incumbent Ramiro Pena and newly added Kevin Russo give the Yanks a good glove/good stick pairing, adding Corona and Nunez respectively seems to only duplicate that pairing while giving the Yankees twice as many utility infielders on their 40 man as they could rightly need.
The Yankees have a few options as to how to create the necessary spots for free agent signings. Chien-Ming Wang will likely be non-tendered to avoid arbitration, but if he's resigned to a Major League deal he'll need to be re-added. Brian Bruney and Sergio Mitre are non-tender candidates, but the early buzz is that both will be back. Relievers Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez, perpetually injured Christian Garcia, and first baseman Juan Miranda could all be removed from the roster, but all ostensibly represent better options than the players just added.
A more likely scenario could be the Yankees clearing room via trade. Last year's Nick Swisher trade opened a spot by moving Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez from the 40 man. Albaladejo and Ramirez may be of some value to a lesser club, and Miranda, blocked by Mark Teixeira, may be of some worth on the market as well. I think the Yanks may want to wait to see how the Damon and Matsui situations play out before moving potential DH candidate Miranda though. A rumored Roy Halladay trade, however unlikely, would clearly remove several players from the 40 man.
Finally, the 40 man roster situation might preclude the Yankees from jumping into the free agent pool right away. The market likely won't materialize until after December 1st anyway, but the non-tender deadline isn't until December 12th. Barring a trade, it might not be until then that the Yankees have the 40 man flexibility to add more than a single free agent. This will be an interesting situation to monitor as the Hot Stove heats up over the next several weeks. The Yankees need a little more freedom with their forty man.
As we mentioned last week, midnight Friday morning was the deadline for clubs to finalize their 40 man rosters in preparation for next month's Rule 5 Draft. It took several hours for the news to get out, but the Yankees' moves were announced late in the day Friday.
As expected, top prospect Austin Jackson, second baseman/utility man Kevin Russo, and starting pitcher Ivan Nova were all added. Surprisingly though, the Yankees also chose to protect an additional four players: middle infielders Reegie Corona and Eduardo Nunez, and pitchers Romulo Sanchez and Hector Noesi.
With Andy Pettitte finally filing for free agency and Shelley Duncan being outrighted to Scranton, Friday's moves leave the Yankees with 39 spots spoken for on their 40 man roster. Technically, this gives them the freedom to select one player in the Rule 5 Draft - but I wouldn't count on that happening. Firstly, the Yankees are not constructed in a manner that would make it easy for them to fulfill the Rule 5 requirement of keeping a selected player on their Major League roster for all of 2010. Secondly, the Yankees are going to need that one roster spot and likely a few others to add Major League free agents this off-season - which makes the 40 man decisions all the more curious.
The Yankees currently have seven players from the 2009 roster who are free agents: Pettitte, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr, Eric Hinske, and Xavier Nady. While Nady was a non-factor all year as an injured player, and back-ups like Molina, Hairston, and Hinske can be replaced by internal options (Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Russo, Juan Miranda), Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui all figure to be either resigned or replaced by a comparable Major League talent. And since any free agent inked to a Major League contract needs to be added to the 40 man roster, the Yankees are going to need more than just that one open roster spot.
Thus, it's curious as to why the Yankees chose to protect so many players. I'm sure there was sound reasoning behind it, but it isn't readily evident to me. At the most basic level, the Yankees protected these seven players because they wanted to ensure they would retain their services. But because of the nature of the Rule 5 draft, sometimes the best way to retain a Rule 5 eligible player is to expose him - particularly in the cases of "fringey" players like Corona, Nunez, Sanchez, and Noesi. Last year for example, the Yankees lost four players in the Rule 5 Draft: Corona, Nova, Zach Kroenke, and Jason Jones. All four were returned to the Yankees as they were unable to win Major League jobs with the clubs that selected them.
So in choosing to protect protect the likes of Corona, Nunez, Sanchez, and Noesi the Yankees are saying not only that they want to retain these players, but also that they're reasonably confident that the players could win Major League jobs elsewhere. I find this surprising, as Noesi has pitched just 41.1 innings in High A, Nunez has spent just a single season as high as AA, and Corona struggled terribly in a 44 game cameo at AAA last year, earning a demotion back to AA. The Yankees might have had a good chance to retain all four by leaving them exposed while keeping some flexibility with the 40 man roster.
Also curious is that in adding Corona and Nunez, the Yankees now have a glut of utility infielders on their 40 man. Incumbent Ramiro Pena and newly added Kevin Russo give the Yanks a good glove/good stick pairing, adding Corona and Nunez respectively seems to only duplicate that pairing while giving the Yankees twice as many utility infielders on their 40 man as they could rightly need.
The Yankees have a few options as to how to create the necessary spots for free agent signings. Chien-Ming Wang will likely be non-tendered to avoid arbitration, but if he's resigned to a Major League deal he'll need to be re-added. Brian Bruney and Sergio Mitre are non-tender candidates, but the early buzz is that both will be back. Relievers Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez, perpetually injured Christian Garcia, and first baseman Juan Miranda could all be removed from the roster, but all ostensibly represent better options than the players just added.
A more likely scenario could be the Yankees clearing room via trade. Last year's Nick Swisher trade opened a spot by moving Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez from the 40 man. Albaladejo and Ramirez may be of some value to a lesser club, and Miranda, blocked by Mark Teixeira, may be of some worth on the market as well. I think the Yanks may want to wait to see how the Damon and Matsui situations play out before moving potential DH candidate Miranda though. A rumored Roy Halladay trade, however unlikely, would clearly remove several players from the 40 man.
Finally, the 40 man roster situation might preclude the Yankees from jumping into the free agent pool right away. The market likely won't materialize until after December 1st anyway, but the non-tender deadline isn't until December 12th. Barring a trade, it might not be until then that the Yankees have the 40 man flexibility to add more than a single free agent. This will be an interesting situation to monitor as the Hot Stove heats up over the next several weeks. The Yankees need a little more freedom with their forty man.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Who's The Boss?
This guy is.Big day for Giants' TE Kevin Boss with 5 catches for 76 yards and 2 TDs. He proved himself a worthy successor to Mark Bavaro's former position and number.
Mario Manningham also had a good day for himself with 6 catches for 126, Steve Smith with 4 for 79, and Hakeem Nicks with 5 for 65. All added up to a career high 384 passing yards for Eli Manning.
Still, following yet another rough second half, the Giants needed OT to ensure victory. Lawrence Tynes, who missed from 31 yards in the second quarter, connected from 36 to put an end to it on the extra period's opening drive.
Big win for Big Blue, allowing them to keep pace with Dallas and Green Bay, both of whom were victorious today and earning them a game's lead over Atlanta.
Big Day For Big Blue
The Giants are returning to action this afternoon following their bye week and four straight losses - two of them ugly, and the last of them a final minute stomach punch.
Today's game is an important one for the G-Men, not only to right the ship but also because today's opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, will be one of the Giants' principal rivals in fighting for playoff spots down the stretch. Dallas leads the NFC East by a game over both the Giants and Philadelphia. They, along with the Eagles, Packers, and Falcons are in a four way tie for the two wild card spots. The Giants still have a shot at the division, and a win today would not only be a step in the right direction as far as that's concerned but have the added benefit of giving them a leg up on of their chief competitors for the wild card spots.
The Giants will be without captain and starting middle linebacker Antonio Pierce who, according to the New York Daily News, is out indefinitely with a bulging disc in his neck. The Giant defense will have top cornerback Aaron Ross in the lineup for the first time all season, providing much needed help to a secondary that's been decimated by injuries all season long.
I'll be a bit torn today, seeing the Giants go up against one of my favorite BC Eagles of all time in Matt Ryan, but rest assured, I'm firmly pulling for the G-Men in this one. It's getting down to crunch time now - the Giants did their damage early this year going 5-0 against mostly mediocre competition and have been on a losing streak ever since. Today's game kicks off a pretty challenging seven game stretch, including a short rest Thanksgiving night game in Denver's high altitude. It would do the Giants a world of good to bank a "W" this afternoon.
Game is at 1:00 on FOX, with Moose, Goose, and Kenny Albert - unless 50 Cent has had Kenny knocked off. Let's hope it's an enjoyable one.
Today's game is an important one for the G-Men, not only to right the ship but also because today's opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, will be one of the Giants' principal rivals in fighting for playoff spots down the stretch. Dallas leads the NFC East by a game over both the Giants and Philadelphia. They, along with the Eagles, Packers, and Falcons are in a four way tie for the two wild card spots. The Giants still have a shot at the division, and a win today would not only be a step in the right direction as far as that's concerned but have the added benefit of giving them a leg up on of their chief competitors for the wild card spots.The Giants will be without captain and starting middle linebacker Antonio Pierce who, according to the New York Daily News, is out indefinitely with a bulging disc in his neck. The Giant defense will have top cornerback Aaron Ross in the lineup for the first time all season, providing much needed help to a secondary that's been decimated by injuries all season long.
I'll be a bit torn today, seeing the Giants go up against one of my favorite BC Eagles of all time in Matt Ryan, but rest assured, I'm firmly pulling for the G-Men in this one. It's getting down to crunch time now - the Giants did their damage early this year going 5-0 against mostly mediocre competition and have been on a losing streak ever since. Today's game kicks off a pretty challenging seven game stretch, including a short rest Thanksgiving night game in Denver's high altitude. It would do the Giants a world of good to bank a "W" this afternoon.Game is at 1:00 on FOX, with Moose, Goose, and Kenny Albert - unless 50 Cent has had Kenny knocked off. Let's hope it's an enjoyable one.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
College Football Saturday: Week 12
A special Saturday good morning to you Fackers. College Gameday kicks off in 60 minutes from Tucson, where Arizona hosts Oregon in match up of two teams still alive in what's a relatively wide open Pac-10. The show is starting at 8 AM local time and the game starts at 6 PM local time. It's going to be a long day out there. Thankfully, there's a full slate of games to fill the void in between.
North Carolina at Boston College, 12:00 ESPN2: Finally I get to watch a BC game - not because this game is actually on TV but because I've made the trip up to Chestnut Hill for the weekend. Tailgating! Plus, I get the added benefit of not having to listen to Pam Ward call this one. BC still has a chance to win the ACC Atlantic and head to their third straight ACC Championship Game, but they need help. They need to win out against UNC and Maryland and have Clemson lose to against a poor Virginia team. I'm not holding my breath. Up until last week - when they beat Virginia - BC was winless on the road. Entering this game, they're undefeated at home. But UNC has won three in a row, including upsets of then #13 Virginia Tech and then #14 Miami. I have a bad feeling about this one.
#10 Ohio St. at Michigan, 12:00 ABC: Three years ago this game decided who would play in the BCS Championship Game. Now Michigan is a laughingstock. Can't say I'm too broken up about that, particularly with how Lloyd Carr was unceremoniously shown the door. But, this is one of the two times a year I pull for the Wolverines (the Notre Dame game being the other of course). Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher will find themselves on opposite ends of this one.
Minnesota at #13 Iowa, 12:00 ESPN: Poor Iowa. Not only did they lose a heartbreaker in OT against Ohio St last week, costing them a trip to the Rose Bowl, but the loss dropped them below Penn State in both the AP and USA Today polls. Lest you forget, the Hawkeyes beat the Nittany Lions handily, in Happy Valley, earlier this season. And you thought the BBWAA voters were bad.
Duke at #20 Miami, 12:00 ESPNU: Miami has had a bit of an up and down season, and it was down last week as they were upset by UNC. Duke is having their best season in years. I still don't think there's another upset in the works in this one.
Louisville at South Florida, 12:00 SNY: As with last week's SNY game, I have nothing to say. Which is exactly why this game is on SNY.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 12:30 MSGPlus: Both head coaches will be mentioned in coaching searches this off-season; neither will be going anywhere.
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 2:30 NBC: So Charlie Weis thinks his future at ND is yet to be decided. Perhaps the fact that the university has disabled tracking of its private jet so as not to draw attention to their coaching search might be some indication that it has been decided. Despite living in Connecticut all my life I've never been a big UConn fan. In fact, I sort of dislike them because I have to hear about the men's - and even worse the women's - basketball team all damn year long. Needless to say though, I'll be a big Huskies fan this weekend. My cousin, who went to Notre Dame, and a good friend of mine, who went to UConn, are both heading out to this game. One of them is coming home unhappy; I think it'll be my cousin.
#8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 CBS: Rebels RB Dexter McCluster had an outstanding game against Tennessee last week, singlehandedly outgaining and outscoring the entirety of the Vols' offense. That must have made quite an impression on the boys in Vegas, because at this point unranked Ole Miss is favored by four and a half against the #8 team in the country. Also, in response the "From Dixie With Love" scandal I touched on last week, it's rumored that there may be a Klan rally on campus, both before and after the game. Only in the SEC.
#14 Penn State at Michigan State, 3:30 ABC: A couple years ago I spent a Saturday watching college football at Blondie's on the Upper West Side. I was there with a bunch of BC folk to watch the BC-Notre Dame game. The bar had booked a party of Michigan State people to take our place when our game was over. Our game ran a bit a late, and the later it got the bigger assholes the Spartans became. BC beat MSU in the Champs Sports Bowl at the end of that season. I was particularly happy about that.
Virginia at #23 Clemson, 3:30 ESPN: As above, Clemson needs to lose to keep BC's hopes alive in the ACC Atlantic. Let's go Cavs! At least give Groh one more high note on his way out the door. BC alum and sometime MSG guy Bob Wischusen is calling this one. Wonder who he's pulling for.
NC State at #15 Virginia Tech, 3:30 ESPNU: As best as I can tell, a Hokie is an oversized, maroon turkey. Thanksgiving is this coming Thursday.
Arizona State at UCLA, 4:00 MSGPlus: At this point in the season the Pac-10 is the most exciting conference in the country. This game features two teams who are entirely out of a wide open race. Thanks for nothing MSGPlus.
San Diego State at #21 Utah, 4:00 Versus: Utah got trounced by TCU last week, virtually ensuring the Utes will wind up in a second rate bowl game. So I'll go off on a bit of tangent instead. I was killing some time on You Tube this week, and decided to take a trip down memory lane by watching videos of old WWF wrestling matches. That led me to this video of former second rate wrestler "The Birman" Koko B. Ware getting inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame last year. If wrestling were like baseball, people would be going nuts about this. Koko B. Ware was never more than a midcard wrestler. But the reason I bring this up here is that if you mute the sound and just watch the video, I defy you to tell me that you don't think it's MLB Hall of Famer and former San Diego State Aztec Tony Gwynn.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, 7:00 ESPNU: Hey, arrests of Tennessee players are down 67% this week. Great job Coach Kiffin. It's the Commodores against the Volunteers. Who you got?
#25 California at #17 Stanford, 7:30 Versus: So how good is Stanford? In consecutive weeks they've beaten then #8 Oregon and absolutely destroyed then #9 USC at the L.A. Coliseum. They have a shot at winning the Pac-10 now, and a win in this one would go a long way towards making that happen. Might coach Jim Harbaugh's alma mater come calling after that? Cal will be without Jahvid Best for the second consecutive week.
Kansas State at Nebraska, 7:45 ESPN: Somehow this is Kansas State's final regular season game. Nebraska has lowly Colorado next week and a half game lead on the Wildcats in the Big 12 North. So, essentially this breaks down to the Big 12 North Championship Game, for the right to get obliterated by Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. More importantly, this is your Erin Andrews game for the night.
Kentucky at Georgia, 7:45 ESPN2: Tragic news out of Athens Thursday, as mascot UGA VII went to the great beyond. Rest in peace UGA. That's about the most interesting angle on this one.
#11 Oregon at Arizona, 8:00 ABC: As mentioned above, this is a big one out in the wild wild west. This is one of the rare weeks where Kirk Herbstreit doesn't have to jet from the Gameday location to his Saturday night broadcast. Will he spend his day watching games or Arizona co-eds?
Kansas at #3 Texas, 8:00 ESPN360: It's a bad week to be a morbidly obese football coach. Charlie Weis, despite pleading ignorance, is all but done at Notre Dame and now Heavyweight Champion of the World Mark Mangino is the subject of an internal investigation at Kansas over allegations that he's something of an asshole. Oh, and that he's lost five straight. This will assuredly make six. He used to be so cute and happy. Andy Reid, Eric Mangini, Rex Ryan: consider yourselves warned.
Nevada at New Mexico State, 10:30 ESPNU: Sort of a weak way to wind out the night, particularly on a station that not everyone gets. Hey, New Mexico State is just like the pros. Head coach Mike Locksley beat the shit out of one of his assistants, just like Tom Cable Now, Locksley is being mentored by super-football-mentor-extraordinaire Tony Dungy, just like Michael Vick. Does that make former New Mexico assistant J.B. Gerald a pitbull?
Enjoy the games Fackers.
North Carolina at Boston College, 12:00 ESPN2: Finally I get to watch a BC game - not because this game is actually on TV but because I've made the trip up to Chestnut Hill for the weekend. Tailgating! Plus, I get the added benefit of not having to listen to Pam Ward call this one. BC still has a chance to win the ACC Atlantic and head to their third straight ACC Championship Game, but they need help. They need to win out against UNC and Maryland and have Clemson lose to against a poor Virginia team. I'm not holding my breath. Up until last week - when they beat Virginia - BC was winless on the road. Entering this game, they're undefeated at home. But UNC has won three in a row, including upsets of then #13 Virginia Tech and then #14 Miami. I have a bad feeling about this one.
#10 Ohio St. at Michigan, 12:00 ABC: Three years ago this game decided who would play in the BCS Championship Game. Now Michigan is a laughingstock. Can't say I'm too broken up about that, particularly with how Lloyd Carr was unceremoniously shown the door. But, this is one of the two times a year I pull for the Wolverines (the Notre Dame game being the other of course). Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher will find themselves on opposite ends of this one.
Minnesota at #13 Iowa, 12:00 ESPN: Poor Iowa. Not only did they lose a heartbreaker in OT against Ohio St last week, costing them a trip to the Rose Bowl, but the loss dropped them below Penn State in both the AP and USA Today polls. Lest you forget, the Hawkeyes beat the Nittany Lions handily, in Happy Valley, earlier this season. And you thought the BBWAA voters were bad.
Duke at #20 Miami, 12:00 ESPNU: Miami has had a bit of an up and down season, and it was down last week as they were upset by UNC. Duke is having their best season in years. I still don't think there's another upset in the works in this one.
Louisville at South Florida, 12:00 SNY: As with last week's SNY game, I have nothing to say. Which is exactly why this game is on SNY.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 12:30 MSGPlus: Both head coaches will be mentioned in coaching searches this off-season; neither will be going anywhere.
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 2:30 NBC: So Charlie Weis thinks his future at ND is yet to be decided. Perhaps the fact that the university has disabled tracking of its private jet so as not to draw attention to their coaching search might be some indication that it has been decided. Despite living in Connecticut all my life I've never been a big UConn fan. In fact, I sort of dislike them because I have to hear about the men's - and even worse the women's - basketball team all damn year long. Needless to say though, I'll be a big Huskies fan this weekend. My cousin, who went to Notre Dame, and a good friend of mine, who went to UConn, are both heading out to this game. One of them is coming home unhappy; I think it'll be my cousin.
#8 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 CBS: Rebels RB Dexter McCluster had an outstanding game against Tennessee last week, singlehandedly outgaining and outscoring the entirety of the Vols' offense. That must have made quite an impression on the boys in Vegas, because at this point unranked Ole Miss is favored by four and a half against the #8 team in the country. Also, in response the "From Dixie With Love" scandal I touched on last week, it's rumored that there may be a Klan rally on campus, both before and after the game. Only in the SEC.
#14 Penn State at Michigan State, 3:30 ABC: A couple years ago I spent a Saturday watching college football at Blondie's on the Upper West Side. I was there with a bunch of BC folk to watch the BC-Notre Dame game. The bar had booked a party of Michigan State people to take our place when our game was over. Our game ran a bit a late, and the later it got the bigger assholes the Spartans became. BC beat MSU in the Champs Sports Bowl at the end of that season. I was particularly happy about that.
Virginia at #23 Clemson, 3:30 ESPN: As above, Clemson needs to lose to keep BC's hopes alive in the ACC Atlantic. Let's go Cavs! At least give Groh one more high note on his way out the door. BC alum and sometime MSG guy Bob Wischusen is calling this one. Wonder who he's pulling for.
NC State at #15 Virginia Tech, 3:30 ESPNU: As best as I can tell, a Hokie is an oversized, maroon turkey. Thanksgiving is this coming Thursday.
Arizona State at UCLA, 4:00 MSGPlus: At this point in the season the Pac-10 is the most exciting conference in the country. This game features two teams who are entirely out of a wide open race. Thanks for nothing MSGPlus.
San Diego State at #21 Utah, 4:00 Versus: Utah got trounced by TCU last week, virtually ensuring the Utes will wind up in a second rate bowl game. So I'll go off on a bit of tangent instead. I was killing some time on You Tube this week, and decided to take a trip down memory lane by watching videos of old WWF wrestling matches. That led me to this video of former second rate wrestler "The Birman" Koko B. Ware getting inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame last year. If wrestling were like baseball, people would be going nuts about this. Koko B. Ware was never more than a midcard wrestler. But the reason I bring this up here is that if you mute the sound and just watch the video, I defy you to tell me that you don't think it's MLB Hall of Famer and former San Diego State Aztec Tony Gwynn.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, 7:00 ESPNU: Hey, arrests of Tennessee players are down 67% this week. Great job Coach Kiffin. It's the Commodores against the Volunteers. Who you got?
#25 California at #17 Stanford, 7:30 Versus: So how good is Stanford? In consecutive weeks they've beaten then #8 Oregon and absolutely destroyed then #9 USC at the L.A. Coliseum. They have a shot at winning the Pac-10 now, and a win in this one would go a long way towards making that happen. Might coach Jim Harbaugh's alma mater come calling after that? Cal will be without Jahvid Best for the second consecutive week.
Kansas State at Nebraska, 7:45 ESPN: Somehow this is Kansas State's final regular season game. Nebraska has lowly Colorado next week and a half game lead on the Wildcats in the Big 12 North. So, essentially this breaks down to the Big 12 North Championship Game, for the right to get obliterated by Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. More importantly, this is your Erin Andrews game for the night.
Kentucky at Georgia, 7:45 ESPN2: Tragic news out of Athens Thursday, as mascot UGA VII went to the great beyond. Rest in peace UGA. That's about the most interesting angle on this one.
#11 Oregon at Arizona, 8:00 ABC: As mentioned above, this is a big one out in the wild wild west. This is one of the rare weeks where Kirk Herbstreit doesn't have to jet from the Gameday location to his Saturday night broadcast. Will he spend his day watching games or Arizona co-eds?
Kansas at #3 Texas, 8:00 ESPN360: It's a bad week to be a morbidly obese football coach. Charlie Weis, despite pleading ignorance, is all but done at Notre Dame and now Heavyweight Champion of the World Mark Mangino is the subject of an internal investigation at Kansas over allegations that he's something of an asshole. Oh, and that he's lost five straight. This will assuredly make six. He used to be so cute and happy. Andy Reid, Eric Mangini, Rex Ryan: consider yourselves warned.
Nevada at New Mexico State, 10:30 ESPNU: Sort of a weak way to wind out the night, particularly on a station that not everyone gets. Hey, New Mexico State is just like the pros. Head coach Mike Locksley beat the shit out of one of his assistants, just like Tom Cable Now, Locksley is being mentored by super-football-mentor-extraordinaire Tony Dungy, just like Michael Vick. Does that make former New Mexico assistant J.B. Gerald a pitbull?
Enjoy the games Fackers.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Something To Read Over The Weekend
The work week is winding down, but there's one thing you should probably do before you attempt to sneak out of the office early. Print off a copy of the new e-Ticket over at ESPN.com by Patrick Hruby. It's 12,000 words and once printed out turns into a healthy 16 pages of prime weekend reading material. Use the company's printer and save your eyes from reading it off your computer screen. Heck, once you print it out, you can even take it places with you just like one of those "newspapers" they used to sell. The article is about a Cambodian man who goes by the Americanized name "Joe Cook" and his efforts to bring baseball back to his home country. That's where the story starts, anyway.
Yes, I definitely thought this would be an elevating assortment of words, a triumph of the human spirit with lots of pretty prose and a bright, happy ending. Sports. Uplift. An emotional shot in the arm. Tonic for a world forever going wrong. But that was before this. Before I ventured halfway around the planet to drink from a half-empty glass of half-curdled joy, before I discovered that a tale too inspiring to be true -- Cambodian refugee escapes the Killing Fields, comes to America, takes hope and baseball back to his homeland (and yeah, someone already is filming a documentary) -- is probably too deranged to make up.After you're done reading, there's an 11 or 12 minute video embedded in the article.
Woven into a story about baseball are the sad realities of power, greed, abuse, dishonesty and lust, all underpinned by poverty. If you've spent some time in the third world, the descriptions of what goes on in Cambodia will be less shocking, but it won't make them any less sad. The silver lining is that after this article, fewer people are going to hand over their money to "Joe Cook" thinking with the assumption he's using it for the development of baseball in Cambodia.
The writing is heavy on style but there's more than enough substance to go around. I'm not sure if "enjoy" is the right word, but it's a piece that's certainly worth reading.
More On Chapman
In a post yesterday I advocated against signing Aroldis Chapman mainly based on historical reasons and a risk vs. reward point of view. I didn't offer anything in the way of evaluating Chapman's skill set, mainly because very little is known about it - at least very little that is reliable.
Over at Baseball-Intellect, they have an outstanding, in depth look at Chapman. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my part, but I don't see anything in there that makes me more open to the prospect of inking Chapman to the type of deal he will command. He has control problems, has one good pitch and a couple so-so ones, and has a tendency to tip his pitches via arm slot.
At The Yankee Universe, they also have an open post on whether the Yankees should pursue Chapman. Most people weighing in are in favor of it, with the exception of one annoying commentor.
Lastly, via MLBTradeRumors, comes a few tidbits from Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents. Law ranks another Cuban lefty, Noel Arguelles, as the tenth best option on the market. Arguelles is two years younger than Chapman, and Law speculates he could be had for around $8M. That's a risk I'd be far, far more inclined to assume.
That's it for me this week Fackers. College Football Saturday will be up in the morning.
Over at Baseball-Intellect, they have an outstanding, in depth look at Chapman. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my part, but I don't see anything in there that makes me more open to the prospect of inking Chapman to the type of deal he will command. He has control problems, has one good pitch and a couple so-so ones, and has a tendency to tip his pitches via arm slot.
At The Yankee Universe, they also have an open post on whether the Yankees should pursue Chapman. Most people weighing in are in favor of it, with the exception of one annoying commentor.
Lastly, via MLBTradeRumors, comes a few tidbits from Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents. Law ranks another Cuban lefty, Noel Arguelles, as the tenth best option on the market. Arguelles is two years younger than Chapman, and Law speculates he could be had for around $8M. That's a risk I'd be far, far more inclined to assume.
That's it for me this week Fackers. College Football Saturday will be up in the morning.
WHIP, FIP & The WAR Against Wins
Good morning, Fackers. In the wake of the senior circuit Cy Young, like the AL version, being awarded to a pitcher not on the basis of his won-lost record but on the quality and number of his innings pitched, we're again going to disagree with the well-respected Tyler Kepner.
As Matt pointed out on Wednesday, Kepner noted that Zack Greinke acknowledged FIP in his post-award conference call but was grasping at straws in an attempt to frame the knowledge of advanced statistics as a key component in Greinke's success. Last night, Kepner tried to connect what was said by Greinke (or more accurately, Brian Bannister) with Tim Lincecum's explanation of his approach and made the same conflation:
Obviously, there is no substitute for pure talent. But in Greinke, Bannister’s teammate, we are seeing what can happen when off-the-charts talent meets sophisticated understanding of numbers.First, Lincecum's WHIP was a minuscule 1.05. Haren, Carpenter, and Vasquez? 1.00, 1.01, 1.03. That's a difference of one batter for every 20, 25 and 50 innings, respectively, which Lincecum easily erases with his superior strikeout ratio.
The same is true of Lincecum, to a degree. His stuff is filthy, but he said he was mainly concerned with how many walks-plus-hits he allows per inning – which was curious, in a way, because Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter and Javier Vazquez all had a better WHIP than Lincecum in the N.L. this season.
But more importantly, what if Lincecum had simply said that he was trying his best not to allow batters to reach base? It would have been dismissed as a typical cliche. On the offensive side of the ball, we frequently hear batters saying that they were "just trying to get on base" which is just a different way of saying that they were trying to improve their on base percentage.
In most cases, the goals in baseball are pretty obvious. If you are a batter, don't use up outs. If you are a pitcher, try to keep men off the basepaths, preferably via strikeout. There is still some wiggle room regarding the value of sacrifice hits and bunting, but there isn't a whole lot advanced statistics can teach players. Knowing about UZR isn't going to make someone a better defender. They already know they should be trying to field as many balls, as far away from them as possible.
The main function of the more advanced metrics that are steadily gaining in popularity such as WAR, wOBA, VORP, WPA, RE24, UZR, and FRAA is that they allow observers to more accurately compare players to one another. While players citing FIP and WHIP can only increase their popularity, which is certainly a positive thing, understanding them doesn't provide much in terms of strategical, on-field edge.
The real story emerging from the 2009 Cy Young voting is that the voters have begun to value better statistics and in turn, more objective analysis. Which is to say, they're not blindly picking the pitcher who had the most wins.
The real story emerging from the 2009 Cy Young voting is that the voters have begun to value better statistics and in turn, more objective analysis. Which is to say, they're not blindly picking the pitcher who had the most wins.
Kepner demonstrates this by comparing this year's voting to win-skewed results 1990 and 1998 (both of which illustrate the writer's old reliance on wins), but Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs sums it up best:
Of course, Adam Wainwright who left his last game of the season with a 6-1 lead in line for his 20th win still received the most first place votes in the NL. He only finished 10 points behind Lincecum, so maybe if his bullpen had held up, the aftermath of these awards would be slightly less celebratory. Congratulations to the members of the BBWAA, who have been willing to adapt as the game changes. They deserve recognition for being willing to accept the shift towards better analytical methods. And getting away from wins as a measure of the value of a pitcher is a big first step.
Both Matt and I have taken turns raining on this parade, but I think it's likely that in hindsight, 2009 will be cited as the year that Advanced Stats won the war against Conventional Wisdom. However, I'm more inclined to think that this was the Battle of Saratoga. And considering Bill James penned the hardball version of the Declaration of Independence over 30 years ago, it's probably going to a while before we see any sort of Treaty of Paris.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Everybody Do The Link Around
The Yankeeist has an interview with Alex Belth and Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter. It delves into the very beginnings of the Yankee blogosphere and gives some insight into the Banter Crew that you can't find anywhere else.
Big League Stew takes an in-depth look at BABIP.
A victory for potheads and statheads alike: Tim Lincecum wins the NL Cy Young.
Joe Posnanski hands out his special brand of anti-awards for managers, pitchers and the least valuable player in each league.
I'm not sure if this is good or bad, but Jason Bay is headed for pure, unadulterated free agency.
It doesn't much matter but Andy Pettitte finally filed his papers and is headed there as well.
Now make like the NL Cy Young winner and, in the words of Ray Charles, go get stoned.Bud Selig says "some teams lost money" last year. He could have just said "the Tigers".
The Shyster breaks out a secondhand story about the corporate culture at GM as a way of explaining that Bud Selig might be trying to cut the fat out of the playoff schedule but he's the reason it's there to begin with.
This is why Ken Rosenthal gets paid the big bucks:
The [Yankees], according to one rival executive, plans to pursue free-agent relievers Rafael Soriano, a right-hander, and Mike Gonzalez, a lefty. The Yankees have liked both pitchers in the past.
However, another source with knowledge of the Yankees' thinking says the team prefers to address any bullpen holes from within, using the same strategy that they employed successfully last season.
He gives precedence to a quote from a "rival executive" over a "source with knowledge of the Yankees' thinking". How could you possibly justify citing an executive for another team when someone who knows what the Yanks are thinking offers a directly contradictory quote? Because Rosenthal knows that linking the Yankees - however tangentially - to free agents unequivocally equals pageviews. And that's what business aboard the internets is all about.
Just for good measure, let's take a look at how every pitcher who threw more than 10 innings out of the bullpen for the Yankees in 2009 was acquired.
- Mariano Rivera (international free agent)
- Phil Hughes (drafted - 2004)
- Alfredo Aceves (international free agent)
- David Robertson (drafted - 2006)
- Brian Bruney (signed as a free agent, assigned to the minors)
- Phil Coke (drafted - 2002)
- Damaso Marte (trade)
- Mark Melancon (drafted - 2006)
- Jonathan Albaladejo (trade)
- Edwar Ramirez (purchased from an independent league team)
- Chad Gaudin (trade)
- Jose Veras (free agent, assigned to minors)
- Sergio Mitre (free agent, assigned to minors)
- Brett Tomko (free agent, assigned to minors)
The only guys in there that were signed to multi-million dollar free agent deals were Mariano Rivera (who they were never going to let walk) and Damaso Marte who they locked up while they still had exclusive negotiating rights with last year. It's clear what the Yankees philosophy for their bullpen is and it doesn't involve acquiring expensive free agent relief pitchers like Soriano and Gonzalez.
/end rant
Two More Yankee Rumors We're Not Buying
First up, via MLBTR, Bob Nightengale throws out one that's new to me:
Not so quietly anymore, apparently.
Not so quietly anymore, apparently. Even if we assume that Nightengale's sources are correct and that Brian Cashman has let other GM's know that Swisher is available for the right package (which every player essentially is), I can't see this leading to an actual trade.
We've discussed the state of flux that the Yankees' outfield is in this offseason multiple times, but with the assumption that Nick Swisher remaining in right field was a constant. Swish had a solid (albeit streaky) year at the plate and is signed for a reasonable $6.75M next year and $9M in 2011 with a $10.25M team option for 2012. With a team-friendly salary and above average offensive production (29 HR, 129 OPS+), Swish - along with Robinson Cano - make up the extent of movable impact bats in the Yankee lineup, so of course the club should listen to offers for him.
However, if Cashman does decide to trade Swisher, it would leave the Yankees with holes to fill in each corner of the outfield this offseason. As a slugging switch hitter, Swisher is a key component of the Yankees lineup and his average defense in RF over the last two years certainly hasn't been a detriment. Sure, the Yankees could trade him, but in all likelihood, they'd have to replace him with someone who is either not as good or more expensive.
If the Yankees played inside of a vacuum instead of in the Bronx, it might make sense to trade Swisher. They'd be certain to get back more than they gave up for him last offseason, thus "buying low and selling high", but it's unlikely that it would suit the club's long term plans, something that Brain Cashman undoubtedly would take into consideration.
If the Yankees played inside of a vacuum instead of in the Bronx, it might make sense to trade Swisher. They'd be certain to get back more than they gave up for him last offseason, thus "buying low and selling high", but it's unlikely that it would suit the club's long term plans, something that Brain Cashman undoubtedly would take into consideration.
The other rumor, which is now one day internet month old, is that Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees "have a real reason to believe" they could land Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays have reportedly willing to deal within the division and have granted Halladay a window to negotiate with any potential trade partner. That window would be used to determine if the team would be willing to extend him a contract offer that he would be in favor of waiving his no-trade clause for.
The fact that a team could secure him long term would help justify sacrificing the prospects they give up, but what kind of contract would Halladay be looking for? Considering that Doc is 32 years old, he probably wouldn't get CC Sabathia or Johan Santana money, but let's say, conservatively, it's 5 years at $100M. Would the Yankees really want to lock up very nearly $60M a year in three starting pitchers (Halladay, Sabathia & Burnett) for the next 4 years?
The Yanks had a chance to pay the double barreled cost of prospects plus a free agent-sized contract to acquire Johan Santana from the Twins (via a similar negotiating window) and passed. Do we really think that they want to do it now, after committing to Burnett and Sabathia with large and lengthy contracts? Our friends at River Ave. Blues don't.
I think that that situations involving Swisher and Halladay have a common thread. In both cases, the Yankees are doing their due diligence even though neither are likely to culminate in a trade. Reporters are paid to churn up these kinds of details during the offseason and might as well present them as if there is something to them. And that's generously assuming that these reports are correct.
A good GM should be leaving no stone unturned this time of year. They should be collecting every trade offer possible and inquiring about everyone who is available. But keep that in mind when one of these transmissions is breathlessly reported and subsequently analyzed. There's a lot more said than actually done 'round the ol' hot stove.
A good GM should be leaving no stone unturned this time of year. They should be collecting every trade offer possible and inquiring about everyone who is available. But keep that in mind when one of these transmissions is breathlessly reported and subsequently analyzed. There's a lot more said than actually done 'round the ol' hot stove.
The Cuban Pitcher Crisis
Prior to the start 1995 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Hideo Nomo, who had "retired" from his Japanese club in order to become a free agent. Nomo became just the second Japanese native to play in the Major Leagues and the first in more than thirty years. Nomo had a wildly successful rookie campaign, serving as the ace of the Dodgers' NL West winning staff and taking Rookie of the Year honors while posting a 150 ERA+ and leading the NL in shutouts, strikeouts, and K/9.But in more than just his success on the field, Hideo Nomo was a revelation to the Dodgers. In a year that saw MLB attendance nosedive by about 20% in the wake of the 1994 strike, Dodger attendance dropped by only 7%. The Japanese-born Nomo drove Nomomania just as the Mexican born Fernando Valenzuela had driven Fernandomania 14 years earlier. And the Dodger realized the benefits between the lines, at the box office, in merchandising, and in national and international exposure.
At the time of Nomo's arrival, Major League baseball was already a diverse organization. Clubs had found successful reservoirs of talent in the States, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, and to a lesser extent Canada, Mexico, Panama, even Nicaragua and Australia. Yet Japan, despite being a baseball-crazed nation with a well developed professional league, was a totally untapped resource. Part of that was due to Japan's restrictive player movement system, but another major factor was the old-boy-network of Major League Baseball in which the Japanese Leagues were deemed inferior. Nomo's success was a counterexample to that way of thinking and opened the door for more than forty Japanese-born players to reach the Majors with varying degrees of success since Nomo's debut.
While Nomo's rookie year may have opened the door for Japanese born players, there was still another country that was quite literally shut off from the Major Leagues. Cuba, less than one hundred miles from Key West and as passionate a baseball nation as any that graces the earth, has been subject to a U.S. embargo since 1960. So after Cuban born players like Tony Oliva, Bert Campaneris, Luis Tiant, Tony Perez and the like debuted in the 1960s, no Cuban-born players of consequence made it to the MLB for decades, except for those who emigrated at a young age such as Jose Canseco and Rafael Palmeiro.
That began to change at the same time Nomo came to the States. Cuban born pitcher Ariel Prieto emigrated to Puerto Rico after graduating college in Cuba. Because he chose to establish residency in Puerto Rico, he was subject to the draft and was chosen, with much fanfare, by the A's with the fifth overall pick in the 1995 draft.
That July, Livan Hernandez and Osvaldo Fernandez fled the Cuban National Team as well. However, they had the good sense to seek asylum in the Domincan Republic, thereby skirting the draft and earning themselves lucrative free agent deals. From there the floodgates opened: Rey Ordonez, Rolando Arrojo, Orlando Hernandez, Danys Baez, Adrian Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Yuniesky Betancourt, etc.
All of these players hit the open market with some degree of buzz about them. Some lived up to the billing (El Duque), some have carved out lengthy if average careers for themselves (Livan Hernandez), many utterly failed to live up to hype (Prieto, Arrojo, Contreras, Adrian Hernandez, etc.).
That isn't a knock against Cuban players. Projecting Major League talent is an inexact science, whether it's in evaluating high school or college players, sixteen year olds in Latin America, or even Japanese players from well established professional leagues. Cuban players are particularly challenging to evaluate. Because of the embargo it's difficult to scout them outside of occasional international competition. Unlike the Japanese leagues, Cuban players don't routinely compete against former Major Leaguers who can give some insight to their talent level. There is very little data on which to evaluate Cuban talent, and what little exists is highly unreliable.
But I think that Japanese and Cuban players, because they're something of a novelty and because they've been exposed to higher quality competition than other talent available to Major League clubs, are afforded more hype, and as such get rather large contracts when they sign.
The Yankees should be no stranger to this. They were in on Prieto before MLB ruled he was subject to the draft. They were in on Livan Hernadez and Osvaldo Fernadez before they signed with the Marlins and Giants respectively. They've signed Orlando Hernandez, Adrian Hernandez, Andy Morales, Jose Contreras, and Juan Miranda - with varying degrees of success. El Duque was worth every penny; El Duquecito never panned out. Andy Morales was found to have lied about his age, spent one miserable season in AA, and was released. Jose Contreras may have been traded away for pennies on the dollar, but he also never sustained anything remotely justifying the hype that surrounded his arrival and was exceedingly frustrating to watch. Miranda has shown signs of promise, but is buried behind Mark Teixeira and likely won't get a shot with the Yankees.
All of which is well worth keeping in mind as the Aroldis Chapman talk heats up over the next several weeks. The Yankees are clearly in on Chapman. They're linked in virtually every rumor about him, and hosted him at Yankee Stadium during the clinching Game Six of the ALCS. He is easily the most heralded player to come out of Cuba since - well, take your pick - Prieto, Livan, Arrojo, El Duque, Baez, Contreras, whoever. Chapman could prove to be the best Cuban hurler since Luis Tiant or Mike Cuellar, or even Fidel Castro himself.If he's half as good as he's been hyped to be, it shouldn't be difficult for him to surpass the Cuban pitchers of the last 15 years. But whoever signs Chapman is going to have to pay a hefty price to find out if he's as good as billed. Given the track record of recent Cuban exports, especially considering their performance relative to how good they've been purported to be, I'd be very hesitant to give Chapman the dollars he will command.
The Calm Before The Storm
Good morning Fackers. Today is the last morning of the first stage of the Hot Stove season. As of midnight tonight, teams lose their window of exclusivity to negotiate with their free agents. As we explored earlier this week, there likely won't be much free agent movement for another week and a half. The market will be set by the Type A free agents, and none of them are likely to sign prior to the December 1st arbitration deadline. We could see a few minor signings before then, and I certainly wouldn't mind if the Yankees were to swoop in and sign Type B free agent Mike Cameron as they decide how to proceed with left field, the designated hitter, and their collection of young center fielders.
Another important deadline looms tonight as 40 man rosters need to be finalized in preparation for next month's Rule 5 draft. The Yankees cleaned up some room on the 40 man last week, by outrighting Freddy Guzman and Josh Towers. By my count, the Yankees have six or seven open spots on their 40 man roster (depending upon if and when Andy Pettitte officially files for free agency), and could potentially create more by parting ways with Shelley Duncan, Edwar Ramirez, and/or Jonathan Albaladejo. Austin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and Kevin Russo will assuredly be added to the roster today. Last week Mike Axisa at RAB and Chad Jennings at LoHud profiled other fringe candidates. The Yankees will have to leave a few spots open as place holders for whatever free agents they sign next month.
The Yankees have been holding their organizational meetings this week, so they're probably hammering out the final details of all of this as you read. There are just forty spots; they'll have to leave what they can't carry. I hope that they're ready.
Another important deadline looms tonight as 40 man rosters need to be finalized in preparation for next month's Rule 5 draft. The Yankees cleaned up some room on the 40 man last week, by outrighting Freddy Guzman and Josh Towers. By my count, the Yankees have six or seven open spots on their 40 man roster (depending upon if and when Andy Pettitte officially files for free agency), and could potentially create more by parting ways with Shelley Duncan, Edwar Ramirez, and/or Jonathan Albaladejo. Austin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and Kevin Russo will assuredly be added to the roster today. Last week Mike Axisa at RAB and Chad Jennings at LoHud profiled other fringe candidates. The Yankees will have to leave a few spots open as place holders for whatever free agents they sign next month.
The Yankees have been holding their organizational meetings this week, so they're probably hammering out the final details of all of this as you read. There are just forty spots; they'll have to leave what they can't carry. I hope that they're ready.
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