He Also Picked Mickey Rourke...

I'm a little late to the party on this one, but Nate Silver's projections of A-Rod's home run totals just don't look right. Here is his description of his methodology:

I took Rodriguez's top 20 PECOTA-comparable players and averaged their performances over each remaining season of their careers. Actually, the process was a little more complicated than that (each comparable's performance was adjusted for his park and league context, as well as his previous track record, and we had to make an accommodation for guys like Manny Ramirez who made A-Rod's comparables list but have yet to conclude their own careers). But the basic idea is simple: Comparables like Frank Robinson, who aged well, have a favorable effect on Rodriguez's forecast, and players like Caminini [sic] just the opposite one.

And here are the projections (I've added A-Rod's two previous seasons in white):

There are three glaring problems to me.

1. Silver predicts a near-linear decline, with each total being 2-6HR lower than the preceding year. This, of course, is the result you are going to get when you take his "top 20 PETCOA-comparable players" like Silver did. If you take any 20 players and average their careers, the total number of home runs is almost always going to decline with age. Increase the sample size and it will always decline. The only problem is, over that ten year period it is extremely unlikely that any individual player is going to have that consistent of a downward slide. I will bet anyone reading $100 that this doesn't happen to A-Rod. First one to take the bet in the comments is on, we can iron out the details later.
   
   
2. A-Rod is going to be able to DH at some point. Common knowledge would suggest that playing regularly in the field puts wear and tear on a body, draining energy in individual games and effectively shortening careers. Many of his comparables didn't have that luxury and were driven out of the league because they were no longer well-rounded players, not just because they could no longer be effective at the plate and hit home runs.
   
   
3. The problem with being on pace to be the greatest home run hitter of all time is that you aren't going to have too many people similar to you.

Here are Alex's 20 comparables (and their career HR totals):

1. Sammy Sosa (609)
2. Bobby Grich (224)
3. Dave Winfield (465)
4. Ken Caminiti (239)
5. Ryne Sandberg (282)
6. Frank Robinson (586)
7. Dwight Evans (385)
8. Jeff Bagwell (449)
9. George Brett (317)
10. Reggie Jackson (563)
11. Hank Aaron (755)
12. Greg Luzinski (307)
13. Albert Belle (381)
14. Reggie Smith (314)
15. Manny Ramirez (527, Inc.)
16. Carlos Delgado (469, Inc.)
17. Dick Allen (351)
18. Doug DeCinces (237)
19. Larry Walker (383)
20. Tony Perez (379)

Granted, PETCOA's comparables are based on a ton of things besides home runs, but the problem with this list is that A-Rod already has more HRs than 16 of the guys on it. He has twice as many as his second and fourth closest matches and his career isn't over. I know Nate is going to lean on his own projection system for a variety of reasons, but it would probably have made more sense to look at the top 20 career HR leaders. We are, after all, trying to predict how many home runs he is going to hit and he's already #12 on the list.

I realize that the most reliable way to predict future outcomes is by analyzing past events. However, the flaw in using this methodology is that it becomes impossible to predict when someone will do unprecedented things. Simply put, how is analyzing 20 guys, none of whom is the career home run leader, ever going to result in the simulation predicting A-Rod will break the all-time record?

Look what happens when you line up A-Rod's projections with Hammerin' Hank's:

For one thing, last year, A-Rod played in only 138 games. If he played 156 games, he was on pace for almost exactly 43 HRs, right in line with a 32 year old Aaron.

Where the big differentials come in, are from ages 35-39. As A-Rod enters his steady plunge into oblivion (98HR, 19.6/year), Hank checks in with 203 round-trippers (40.6 per year) including the highest single season total of his career (47 at age 37).

There's no guarantee that A-Rod will hit even one more home run. He could get struck by lightning tomorrow. I just don't think that Alex is going to take the field on a consistent basis and gradually slide off into oblivion like PETCOA projects. The truly eye opening part of Silver's projection is that he'll would still only be 33 HRs away from the all-time record even if he is as bad as the simulation predicts.

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Before you leave a comment telling me how much of a moron I am, I've posted my own projections here.

I Stand Corrected

Earlier today, I wrote a post detailing The Sports Guy's on-air complaints about ESPN's policy regarding what radio shows he was allowed to appear on. I was wrong about what he was referring to in his cloaked bitching to ESPN management.


Awful Announcing now has the audio:



I thought ESPN didn't want him to go on with Max Kellerman in favor of Colin Cowherd's National show. He has never been on The Herd, in no small part due to the feud that I brought up in the previous post.

I did some more in-depth research and here is an except from one of Simmons' chats:

Kevin (Chappaqua, NY): Bill, with the Mike and the Maddog show no longer on the airways and the classic radio 1, 2 combo having gone their separate ways, What do you think there interactions will be at their first Super Bowl apart? I'm sure they will be fighting for guests, giving evil snickers and stares across radio row, while Mike sips on his Diet Coke and Dog fidgets uncontrollably in his chair. My questionthough is if you were asked to go on both shows and only had time for one, who you going with?

Bill Simmons: I would go on Mike's show. There's a 85% chance that Dog has never read a single thing I've written. Mike and I have a love-hate relationship (mostly love) but at least he reads me... the last time I was on, they grabbed me on Media Row and I was sick... I want a second chance... sadly it can never happen because I am not allowed to go on non-ESPN shows ... even though the show that goes against Mike's (Michael Kay) has never asked me to come on. Yup, this is my company.

So as commenter JJV first pointed out, the show that he was talking about wanting to appear on was Mike Francesa's (Mike'd Up) and the show that hadn't invited him on was the Michael Kay Show on 1050, which is up against Mike'd Up.

I think my overall point still stands. Simmons is a bit of a drama queen and never misses an opportunity to publicly slam ESPN for any policy that he disagrees with. I find it hard to believe he's really that upset about not being ask to go on Michael Kay's show.

As The Big Lead pointed out, it's not a great match, seeing that Michael Kay is predominantly a Yankees guy and bringing Simmons on wouldn't really appeal to his audience. Has there been a good reason to bring him on? It's not like TSG has been promoting anything recently.

I would tend to think that Simmons is just bitching because he can't go on Francesa's show and is just using the fact that Michael Kay hasn't asked him to come on (without any incentive to do so) as an excuse to whine about ESPN management (again).

I respect what Simmons does, but ESPN pays him close to $1M, and I don't think anyone held a gun to his head when he agreed to the terms of the contract. He has a job that every blogger would trade for in a second, even if you had to take his annoying nasally voice and were consigned to writing 90% of your columns about Boston teams for the rest of your career. I just get the feeling that no matter what happens, he's going to be a malcontent.

Still, I was wrong, and thought the record should be set straight. An anonymous commenter on the last post really summed it up, though:

Anonymous said...
Yeah dont be a dipshit, the show he wants to go on is Mike'd Up on WFAN (Formerly Mike and the Mad Dog)but he is not allowed by ESPN and he is not invited on the ESPN--1050 Michael Kay Show. Dont just spill diarhea [sic] from your mouth.

Buzz Bissinger, is that you? I believe in this case the "diarhea" would have been flowing from the tips of my fingers since these are the interwebnets and I actually had to type all of that up. Also, apostrophes are your friends, don't be afraid to use them. Thanks for your input, though. Feel free to share your sage and flawlessly written insights anytime, whoever the fuck you are.

Bill Simmons: Kind Of A Drama Queen?

[Ed. note - 1:57PM: It has been brought to my attention that some of the assumptions I made in this post were wrong and I've corrected them in this post. However, I stand by the title and general premise of the article.]

Yesterday during the Max Kellerman Show on 1050 ESPN Radio in New York, the Sports Fella popped on. They two are excellent foils to each other as both have unique perspectives and represent New York and Boston, respectively. They would make a fantastic radio combo, but ESPN would never put them together. Simmons anti-establishment position has been well-documented, and Kellerman has clashed with executives at ESPN, as well as FOX.

So, yesterday it took Simmons all of thirty seconds to start complaining about ESPN and their restrictive policies as to which radio shows he can or can not appear on.

[Ed. Note: I had to edit out some of Kellerman's excessive verbal tics, but other than that, the transcript is basically word for word]

[around the 0:40 mark (open that link in a new window)]

Max Kellerman: ...then I was mentioning, like, how you have a standing invite to come onto this show and you have invited me onto your podcast and everything, but is it kind of like... you have a friend that you are friendly with and everything, but you are like "Come over" or "Yeah, we'll see you" but you don't really mean it...? Is that what it's like with us?

Bill Simmons: No. No, what I said was... You know, we have the rule that ESPN talent can only go on ESPN shows, which is fine, but, you know, there are some shows that I'd like to go on, and I'm not allowed to go on, but then the show that's going against that show, has never invited me on.

Max Kellerman: I see...

Bill Simmons: So, basically I'm just banned from whatever that time slot is...

Max Kellerman: Oh I see, I see, I see what you are saying...

Bill Simmons: Yeah, without getting into details...

The show that he'd "like to go on" is obviously the Max Kellerman Show, but he's obviously "allowed to go on", considering he was on it right then. The show airs from 10:00AM to 1:00PM on the New York affiliate. The show on opposite that on the national stream? The Herd with Colin Cowherd (who has never invited Simmons on). If you'll recall, there was a dust up between Simmons and Cowherd about a year and a half ago:

While we're here, my ESPN colleague Colin Cowherd mocked my seven trade scenarios for Kobe on the radio last week without reading the entire column or even attempting to understand its premise, namely, that the trade options for Kobe were limited because (A) he needed to go to a big market for a team that could contend right away, and (B) nobody pays 100 cents on the dollar for a team looking to unload an unhappy superstar.

And if that wasn't bad enough, Cowherd embarrassed himself by not understanding basic NBA trading principles like "it would be valuable for L.A. to swap Vlad Radmanovic's contract for Bobby Sura's expiring contract in a T-Mac/Kobe deal because Sura's contract expires in 2008, which would buy them some cap space down the road."

Look, I know the radio business lends itself to hosts lazily skimming other people's columns and blogs ... but seriously, Colin, in the words of Mark Jackson, you're better than that. Your show's on for three hours a day and you get four giant commercial breaks per hour. That leaves you plenty of time to research your segments so you don't come off as misinformed. No offense.

Those are all fair points, but dumping "No offense" after saying someone "embarrassed himself" and using the word "lazily" in reference to their professional work ethic is like taking a shit on their pillow and then putting a mint on top. Cowherd later retorted that his show was actually on for four hours a day (from 6-7 Pacific time is his "mysterious West Coast hour") and that Simmons was in fact the uninformed one.

It never went any further than that and both ESPNers have publicly laid the conflict to rest.

But here is the weird thing. After Simmons calls out ESPN for not letting him go on Kellerman's show, this appears on the front page of ESPN.com.

If ESPN didn't want Simmons to go on Kellerman's show, why would they give it such a prominent billing that same day? (It's still up as of 8:00AM on Tuesday). Is this just Simmons and his blogging alter ego, (still complete with a picture of Tim Robbins at his breaking point in Shawshank) whining about ESPN's policies, again?

Would ESPN put that up knowing that the podcast leads off with Simmons' trademark ESPN bashing? The segment was about 18 minutes long and Simmons congratulates Kellerman at the end for running long.

Simmons: You know what, I love the fact that you fought the man and stayed on past that 8/40, 20/20 break.

Kellerman: I'm not playing around, I'm not playing games. Let me tell you something, it was 35 break, not 40. How do you like that?

Is Simmons just being a baby or constructing this talent vs. executive conflict in his own mind? He was clearly allowed to appear on the show and it was given as high profile a link as a random radio spot ever gets. I like Simmons, but I think I have to side with ESPN on this one; he's being a drama queen.

The other outstanding issue: It would be very unESPNlike to feature something on their front page with this kind of outright anti-management rhetoric. I thought the whole segment was fantastic and perhaps the editors just thought it was good enough to feature anyway.

Your thoughts?

Goin' Down The Road Feelin' Bad

[Ed. Note: I flipped the format here a little bit so you can listen to the song and read the post at the same time.]

A few of you actually inquired as to how I made it back to New York yesterday, so just to tie up the loose ends and acknowledge those who helped me overcome my absent-minded idiocy, here is a picture recap/synopsis of how it went down.

I was packed up and ready to leave Boston Bren's place at about 9:00am when I was unable to locate my keys. I searched for about forty five minutes myself, canvassing every obvious place, emptying my bag and backpack and cursing under my breath non-stop. The car was unlocked, so I was able to check and see if they were in there, or if there was a spare key kicking around. No dice. I woke Brendan up, he woke his roommates up, and after another hour or so of intense searching, we were at quite the impasse.

Believe it or not, Googling "Hotwire 1999 Mercury Sable" doesn't really turn up anything useful. It was Sunday, so the service department at Clark & White wasn't open. I called AAA, but the girl literally laughed at me when I asked if there was anything they could do. Thanks.

The only two sets of spare keys were at my mom's house upstate. My sister was headed down to the city because she was flying from JFK to Turks & Caicos the next morning. As a result, the wheels started turning, and by saving the train fare from Albany to NYC, there was actually a mild incentive for them to meet me halfway down the Mass Pike. I have family in the Boston area, and my cousin Brendan and his girlfriend were cool enough to drive me the other half.

To add insult to injury there was a pretty serious storm moving through covering the Berkshires in snow and Boston in rain.

We met in Wilbraham, which happens to be the home to the headquarters of Friendly's. There is one right off the exit and we chose that as a rendezvous point. Since this was apparently a flagship location of sorts, they had some interesting wall hangings.

There were a bunch of pictures of their HQ and the top one says "Public Safety Complex".

What really stole the show, however, were the pictures with items that you can order at a Friendly's inserted into them.

It is obscured by the lighting, but that appears to be a coffee flavored ice cream sundae ambling down a path towards the beach. There were others including a similar one with the sundae next to a lighthouse and one with a Ruben peeking around the corner of a barn. Dazzling. If they weren't gigantic and glued to the wall I would have tried to take one.

From there we went back to Brendan's house, spare keys in hand, and picked up the car. We got on the road at about 4 and headed back to NYC. There was a healthy wintry mix until about New Haven but it didn't really slow the process down too much.

So... we made it back to the city at about 8:00PM, and in a somewhat ironic twist of "too little, too late" I got a parking spot right on my street, about 50 feet from my building.

The point of this wasn't to bore you with the details of my shitty day, but rather to point out that I'm pretty lucky to have six different people who didn't mind ruining their day to bail me out. Thanks guys, I owe you one.

Countdown To Opening Day: #41

The Yankees have a long history of getting great players just as they are exiting their prime and their 2005 aquisition of Randy Johnson was a perfect example.

-----

When the Yankees got The Big Unit, I couldn't have been more excited. I got a call from my roommate Kevin and we were both downright giddy. We had known him as an ageless wonder who had just hit his stride at age 35 and taken down four straight Cy Young awards.

At a time when the rest of the Yankees' rotation was Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, it looked like a move that should have pushed them over the top. The Red Sox had just won the World Series and it seemed like sending Javier Vasquez, Brad Hallsey, Dioner Navarro and $9M to the Diamondbacks was going to right the baseball universe once again.

In retrospect, there were a ton of warning signs, land mines, red flags and caution tape that Yankee fans probably should have noticed.

1. He was 41 years old
2. He had spent his last six seasons in the National League West
3. After pitching 244 or more innings in 5 consecutive seasons, he was hurt in 2003 and started only 18 games at a 4.26 ERA
4. He was making $16M a year
5. His K/9 had been declining for 4 years
6. Being 6'10" is as much of a liability as it is an asset

I don't put much stock in whether people in the New York media think a player can "handle the New York media", but that scuffle with a cameraman on the way to his Yankee physical certainly wasn't a good omen.

After posting ERAs 2.64 or below in 5 out of his 6 years in Arizona the Big Unit threw 225 2/3 innings of 3.79 ball for the Yanks in 2005. Mostly attributed to his "hanging sliders", he gave up 32 home runs and 207 hits, the highest totals of his career. It was a respectable season overall, but it fell far short of even the most conservative expectations of Yankees fans, players and executives. The prevailing thought at the time was that Johnson would rebound the following year and return to his dominant form.

The result was quite the opposite, in fact. He started 33 games but threw only 205 innings, an average of under 6 1/3 innings per outing, the lowest of his career. His K/BB ratio fell from 4.48 to 2.86 (also the worst of his career). For the first time since his rookie season in 1989 and only time since, he posted an ERA worse than league average.

Late in the season it was revealed that Johnson was pitching with a herniated disc. He received treatments and ended up starting Game 3 of the ALDS against Detroit. It was his last game in Pinstripes and he gave up 5 runs in a contest the Yanks went on to lose 6-0.

The Yanks ended up trading Johnson back to the D-Backs for Luiz Visciano, Ross Olendorf, Alberto Gonzalez and Stephen Jackson. It was a pretty fair haul for a 43 year old pitcher with a bad back coming off what was easily the worst full season of his career.

-----

After getting it right (for the most part) with guys like David Cone, David Wells, El Duque and Roger Clemens during the last 90's and Mike Mussina in 2001, the aughts have been filled with a minefield of pitching acquisitions that just didn't work out.

In addition to Johnson and Vasquez: Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, Jose Contreras, Esteban Loaiza, Jeff Weaver...

If the Yanks are going to return to the promised land this year, they need two big double-initialed additions to the rotation buck that trend.

Kevin Youkilis: Human Being Or Catfish?

You Decide:

(h/t Sports Hernia)

Taking It To The Felt

Via PeteAbe, Joe Girardi cancelled the team's workout today and arranged an 8-ball tournament at at local pool hall.

To me, this is a great idea. Right out of the Tom Coughlin playbook. The Yankees are out of here, off to play pool. They’re going to be partnered up with a teammate and play some 8 Ball.

“It’s a team day away from the field. We’re going to have a little tournament and try to enjoy the day,” Girardi said.

Coughlin, as you may remember, took the Giants bowling during training camp in 2007. Next thing you know, they won the Super Bowl. Was there a connection? Maybe not a direct one; but building relationships is an important aspect of success.

When Eric Mangini was fired, I recommended that Girardi take a look at the way the Jets and Giants were run and decide which of the coaches he wanted to follow. I think he's headed in the right direction.

Nothing Like Home

It took 11 hours, four separate car rides, and the combined efforts of five friends/family members, but I finally made it back to NYC last night. I've got some pictures documenting the journey back which may or may not make their way up on the site after work.

The mythical music post obviously didn't make it up this weekend due to the unforseen circumstances discussed above and Brendan still has to weigh in with his Extreme Beer Fest recap, so the non-sports content is going to bleed into the week a little bit. Hope y'all folks don't mind.

Some Friendly Advice

There is never a good time to lose your car keys, but when you are a solid four hour drive from home and quite hungover, misplacing them will make you want to slit your wrists with a broken bottle.

The good news? There are plenty of bottles to choose from.

Characters [EBF Session One]

As you can see, Michael Phelps has really let himself go...

Jim Koch isn't the only one who feels the need to snort his beer.

No, there is no mirror in this photo. The guy on the right is Dan from Maahty's, and the other gentleman was from The Lost Abbey. I'm assuming they share a stylist.

A perfect specimen of the Geekus brewicus. Beard (check), glasses (check), tasting glass (check), intently reading the program (check). I know there are only about 4 people who are going to get this joke but... I didn't know Frank and my sister had a kid together...

A velvet paisley blazer and camo pants. Yeah. Guess what this guy does for a living. I'll give you a hint: He's not in finance. Check out the looks on the Sixpoint guys' faces.

Jeffrey Ross's younger brother in the house. That guy on the right in the Sawx hat is wearing a South African Rugby shirt. Nice choice my friend, I have one as well.

"Roger that, can you grab me a waffle?" (Waffle Cabin is the goods)

Working "security" at this shindig has to be the easiest paying gig available. It wasn't exactly Lollapalooza.

I nominate this guy for Beer Advocate's unofficial mascot.

I didn't actually talk to this guy, but from what I could tell he invented his own dialect which was limited to only four words: "Dude", "Brah", "Chill(in')" and "Brews".

A special thanks to whoever rose this guy from the dead an hour before the event started. That's the kind of extreme beer gut you get from attending too many Extreme Beer Festivals.

So many ways to go with this one. Is visor guy:

1. Saying that the BA Select was overrated and anyone who disagrees with him doesn't know shit about beer
2. Informing the guy in the green that dark skin is a curse from God
3. Explaining how to build your own dwelling and become self-sufficient in the wilderness
4. Miming a beer pong toss
5. Certifiably insane
6. All of the above

Extreme(treme)(reme)(eme) B-B-B-B-Beer Festival! [Session One]

Roughly 1/6th of this weekend was spent busting out the Randy 'Macho Man' Savage voice in reference to Extreme Beer Festival.

Notice the amount of money in my wallet. Coincidentally, it is the exact amount necessary to purchase a walk to the bus stop.

The line.
The line (again).

The venue looked 100x better during the day. For one, they jettisoned the hand-written signs and let the brewers actually put up their own works.


The one bad pour we got. (Is that you in the button-up, Pat Lynch?)

Founders, brewers of the Kentucky Breakfast Stout, pretty much summed it up.

"You only have one tongue... don't f#@# it up drinking junky beer"

Yes.

The dude from the Ithaca station knew about the Rongovian Embassy. Word.

Calling this "macaroni & cheese" is akin to calling Game 7 of the World Series "a baseball game".


The only person at the event with enough courage to represent the Vinny Testaverde era in Tampa Bay:

There are, indeed.


Up next: I'm going to start a wordless blog entitled "Pictures of People Taking Pictures".

You can't see him clearly, but the guy on the left, with the beer mug of a hat, throwing up the peace sign, was one of the true oddities at the show.


At about 4:00, the sun started going down.

Which of course melts craft brewers right in their shoes.

The Citgo sign is a lot cooler when you are in a cab, wasted after a beer festival, than when you are walking out Fenway. (Provided you are a Yankees fan)

There is another Character Collage coming down the pipeline, but it won't be up 'til sometime tomorrow, quite possibly after I get back to the cityadfafkjadnfmdaldfyalsdkjfhasdfal...

/passes out on the keyboard.

Night Of The (Bourbon) Barrels

I'm still drunk and Session One starts at 1:00, so this post is going to lean pretty heavily on the blurry pictures we took.


"You gotta keep the big bills on the outside, Jerry"


Waiting in-line outside Cyclorama, the worst-named venue in the history of scheduled events. It was 25 degrees but the windchill was approximately twelve below.

The room was large and round, with the stations set up along the perimeter.

For some reason, they didn't print up any signs and instead decided it would be a good idea to hand-draw them. The one on the left was the headliner, brewed by Dogfish Head exclusively for the event. Here are the ingredients:

- Maple Syrup (Grade A, Massachusetts)
- Chestnuts
- Green Peppercorns
- Korean Corn Tea "Oksusu-cha"
- Fawcett's Maris Otter Base Malt
- Dash of MFB Kiln Coffee Malt
- Liberty & Vanguard hops
- Dogfish Head's Raison D'Etre House Yeast Strain
- Aiming for 8% ABV

That's Sam from DFH in the black t-shirt. He was cool enough to chat with us for a little while after he stopped pouring and updated us as to the progress on the one of the beers discussed in the article in New York Magazine. It's almost 10,000 words, but if you like beer it is a must read.

This was when the "there is more of us than there are of them" mentality kicked in.

I snapped this shot just to prove that there were some "Yeses" in attendance.

This brew was concocted with cranberries among other things and was the color of grapefruit juice. With all due respect to the Kentucky Breakfast Stout, this is beer's answer to the Bloody Mary.

Brendan's note: These were Southern Tier's Oak Aged Cuvee #1 and #2. #1 was aged in French barrels and is the lighter of the two. #2 was aged in American barrels and is notably darker. Despite our allegiance to the star and stripes, the French was much cleaner)

For good measure (and to propagate the already existing stereotypes), here is a character collage of covert shots of some of the attendees.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to get EXTREMEly drunk again.