Did You Know?

Before tonight, had you considered the possibility that if you bring the tying run to the plate and that batter grounds into a double play, even if a run scores, during the next at-bat, the tying run would no longer be at the plate? When was the last time you saw a pitcher throw an 8 inning complete game?

Thanks to Jorge Posada and CC Sabathia, now you know both of those things.

Not to point to point the finger(s) at those two, of course. The home run Sabathia gave up to Magglio Ordonez literally bounced off the top of the wall. Maggs sliced it off his back foot down the right field line, and left the park by the slimmest of margins. The rest of the offense wasn't too helpful either. Robby Cano and Ramiro Pena were the only ones who could muster than one hit (two apiece) as Verlander racked up nine strikeouts.

It was a swift and brutal affair, a tragic tilt that ended far too soon. After three excruciating Red losses to the Sox in a row, you might have thought the Yanks were due for a bounceback. You would have been wrong. They were were efficiently disposed of in a tidy 2:19.

While the Red Sox series averaged just over four hours per game, this one went quietly into the night. A letdown game after a clash with their arch rivals, perhaps? I'd like to think a team struggling to stay above .500 wouldn't need any extra motivation to win a game coming off being swept by a division foe.

Who knows how much effort actually correlates to success in baseball? I'd venture to guess the connection is not very strong. It's not like football, where strength has a much greater impact upon success. You can hit the gym and the results will translate much more directly to your success on the field.

At a certain point in baseball, no matter what you do (aside from taking steriods), you are pretty much as good as you are going to get. The greatest player of all-time reached base in less than half of the times he came to the plate. Both pitching and hitting have a fickleness and mystique about them. You don't want to give a sinkerballer too much rest and you wouldn't want to disturb a batter's choreographed routine.

I think it has a lot to do with the extremely random nature of baseball. Baseball completely rewrites the concept of confidence intervals. I've never seen a trend player's numbers that made me 95% confident in anything. You are trying to hit a round ball with a rounded bat. Every fraction of an inch affects the outcome. No matter how great of a slugger or hurler you are, you can never hope to control your results that precisely. And that is the reason they need to play 162 games. You just have to stack the odds in your favor, throw it against the wall, and see what sticks.

When things go wrong, who is there to be mad at? The Baseball Gods? The laws of probability? Fate? That's part of the appeal for me as a fan. You don't have to ride the rollercoaster of every up and down. The season lasts forever. It's not like football, where games are ten times more significant in the standings and occur a week apart. If the Yankees were the Giants, the season would have been over already.

It's early in the schedule, and no matter what some anonymous commenters would like you to believe, there is still a lot of baseball to be played and a lot could change over that time. Maybe when September rolls around we'll look back at this time and realize that all the rough patches were actually bad omens. Or perhaps, we'll look back at this stretch and wonder why we were so impatient so as to assume that we could tell the future by the results of 19 games.

You're Not Going To Believe This, But...

Last night Rob Neyer wrote a blog post that didn't involve a 200+ word blockquote. I swear to the Baseball Gods:

Last year, Kyle Farnsworth gave up 15 home runs in 60 innings. In his career, Farnsworth has allowed a .441 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.

Jim Thome is a left-handed hitter with 541 career home runs.

Over the past three seasons, Chicago's U.S. Cellular Field has been the most homer-prone ballpark in the American League, both generally and for left-handed hitters specifically.

With two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning and two White Sox on base, the Royals held a 2-1 lead. Thome was coming up. If there's a single pitcher in the majors who shouldn't be facing Thome in that situation, it just might be Farnsworth.

Yet, face him he did. Threw Thome a fastball down the middle, he did. Gave up a long, three-run, (eventually) game-losing home run, he also did.

And Royals manager Trey Hillman? He sat on his hands and watched it happen. That's what he did.

There's no blockquote at all!!! I got so excited, I think just cut and pasted his whole post...

I kid because I like Rob Neyer and sincerely hope that we see much more of this from him during this season. I would love for ESPN to set him up with MLB Extra Innings a couple of nights a week and just let him make observations like the one above.

It seems as though he has a very defined idea of what blogging is (short lead-in, long blockquote, then his reaction to the piece), and rarely (up until now, never?) steps outside of that format aside from his Monday Mendozas, Tuesday Taters, Wednesday Wangdoodles and so forth. I'd love to hear more of his original thoughts, not just his reactions to what other people say.

Number of Days Until Spring Training: #20 (Jorge Posada)

Jorge Posada's glenoid labrum might have been the biggest reason the Yankees didn't make the playoffs last year. He was placed on the DL July 21st and in his place, Jose Molina, Chad Moeller and Pudge Rodriguez cobbled together offensive statistics barely above replacement level.

Two years ago, as a 35 year old catcher, Posada's slash stats (1st PP) were .338/.426/.543, good for a 154OPS+. Yes, AS A CATCHER (the toughest position in the league to find offensive production at). His studly woodwork earned him a Silver Slugger Award, a start in the All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium and 6th place in the MVP voting.

Coming off what was easily his best offensive season of his career in 2007, Posada signed a four year, $52M contract, far and away the most money ever committed to a catcher at such a late point in his career. The Yankees had no choice if they wanted to retain him. The Mets, among others, were hot on his trail and even offered him a four year deal at similar money. Brian Cashman probably knew that it was a bad investment overall, but as is the case in almost every other offseason, the options on the free agent market at catcher were threadbare.

Posada was going to come down to earth last year, even if he didn't get injured. He has always been a solid offensive force for a catcher, but 2007 was a complete and total anomaly. His highest previous batting average was .287 and his slugging percentage was .16 higher than his previous best. Guess what stat I'm going to link to next! That's right, Batting Average On Balls In Play!!!

BABIP explains almost every single seemingly inexplicable fluctuation in batting average from year to year. It keeps track of how many balls a player puts into the field of play that become hits (or outs). A typical BABIP is between .290 and .300, meaning that only 3/10 times, a ball redirected into play becomes a base hit.

Last year, Posada's BABIP was a stratospheric .386, when his highest previous was .303. Where the ball goes after it makes contact with the bat, it in almost entirely luck. Hence, if someone has an incredible spike in BA (or drop, ehem, CANO) from year to year, it's mostly dictated by the Baseball Gods. Yes, a hitter can direct the ball to one side of the field or another to some extent, but as far as finding a hole, it's a crapshoot.

I'll bet either of you two people who read this blog $50 that Posada doesn't bat over .300 again for the rest of his career (The first person to take the bet in the comments is in. We can iron out details later). If I lose, it will be the best $50 I've ever spent.

Hip Hip Jorge has been said to be the take-charge type of guy that Derek Jeter isn't, getting in guy's faces and not taking any shit. Maybe Robinson Cano wouldn't have needed to get benched by Joe Girardi to realize he wasn't that much more valuable than Jason Varitek last season.

Posada's attempts to right the universe aren't confined to the clubhouse. His son, Jorge Jr. who is 10 years old, suffers from a rare disease called craniosynostosis which inhibits brain growth in infants. His foundation "provides support to families whose child is affected by Craniosynostosis, a congenital or birth defect that causes an abnormally shaped skull." You can donate here.

Get well Jorge, we need you. The Yankees team that's going to win the World Series this year has you behind the plate.

Yeah, that one deserves some color.