ALCS Game 1: Who Knows?

Here we are, folks. It's the American League Championship Series; Phase Two of a possible three in the quest for ultimate baseball glory. It's been a long 5 years since the Yanks have been in those position.

There are only 6 Yankees (Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Posada, Cano, Matsui) that were on the roster in 2004 or the last time the Yankees faced the Angels in 2005. The Angels are returning only 4 players from 2005. So while the narrative that the Angels own the Yanks in the postseason is going to be thrown out there, it's not all that relevant any more. The Red Sox supposedly had the Angels' number going into the ALDS and they are watching this one from their respective couches. (I love pointing that out...)

As Matt delved into this morning, the two teams split the season series and are quite evenly matched. The Yanks have a slight advantage when you look at the accumulation of their regular season stats, but much of that goes out the window at this point. The rosters are optimized for a short series and there's no guarantee that a 52/48 or even 55/45 edge is going to show up in a best of 7 series. The miserable weather in the Bronx to start the series could further obscure any advantages one way or another.

John Lackey gets the start for the Angels tonight, off a dominant outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The Angels' Ace shut down the Sox over 7 1/3 IP, holding them to 4 hits, one walk and no runs. He was also sharp in his one outing against the Yankees this year, holding them to two runs over 7 innings out in Anaheim and picking up the win in the process.

The Angels trot out a pretty formidable line up as well, one that ranked second in the AL behind the Yankees in runs scored. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they were only 3rd in OBP and 4th in slugging percentage (Yanks were first in both). Their oft-discussed running game has surely filled in some of those gaps. The always-pesky Chone Figgins will be leading off and Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero make up the heart of their order. Kendry Morales has put up Mark Teixeira-style numbers this year but he's only hitting 6th.

Of course, CC Sabathia will be ascending to the rubber for the Yankees and trying to wade though that line up tonight. He wasn't in his start against the Twins (which was 9 freaking days ago), but he did strike out 8 and walk none in 6 2/3 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 2 runs (one earned) and needed 113 pitches to do it, but showed that he was capable of finding his command under pressure.

He didn't fare well in either of his starts against the Angels during the regular season this year. In 13 1/3 innings of work, he gave up 9 ER, 17 hits, took the loss in both games but did strike out 11 while walking only 4. Decent peripheral numbers, but that's not much to hang your hat on. We're only interested in the bottom line from here on out.

The Yanks offense, outside of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and a couple timely hits by Mark Teixeira didn't look too hot against the Twins. Their batting line of .225/.288/.431 isn't going to get it done against the Angels, much less earn them a sweep.

Right now, we're still at the phase where nobody has a clue where this series is going to go. Hopefully this is going to be a great match up; an all-time classic. But what has happened this season, in the ALDSes, in 2005 or in 2002 isn't going to mean much after tonight. Hopefully the Yanks can pull it off, but who knows? Let's go Yanks.

They don't know,
Like I know,
Do you know?
They don't know,
I don't know.

Dodging Zack Greinke

When I saw that Kansas City's ace and lone star player had pitched a nice game against the Red Sox last week (contrary to the observations of Jim Rice), I figured that the Yanks would be running into him as well when the Royals came to town this week.

Up until that point, one of the very few remaining arguments against Zack Greinke's right to the AL Cy Young was the fact that he hadn't faced the Yankees or Red Sox this season. Needless to say, this is a pretty weak point both because pitcher's can't control their own schedule and if you wanted to complain about a lack of competition, you might want to start by noting that he pitches in the AL Central.

The reason that the Yankees didn't see him the first time around this year goes back to the fact that Gil Meche was tagged as the opening day starter for the Royals. This was due in part because he had that designation ever since being signed to a 5 year, $55M deal before the beginning of the 2007 season, but we can be sure it won't be the case next year, barring some unforeseen circumstances. Greinke was the Royals best pitcher last year too, but not by all that much, and as such was ticketed to start the second game of the season. As a result, when the Yankees came to town for the 4th through 6th games of the season, they missed the Zack Attack who pitched in the 2nd and 7th.

[Sidenote: The Yankees actually drafted Zack's younger brother Luke in the 12th round out of Auburn University last June. The lesser Greinke started 9 games for the Staten Island Yanks to a 4.01 ERA in 33 1/3 IP but was released out of Spring Training this year, before he could be assigned to a higher level of the minor leagues.]

As fate would have it, however, Zack Greinke shut down the Twins over 7 innings on Sunday night, temporarily derailing their charge for the AL Central title, and will once again miss the Yankees. This would be a welcome reprieve during the regular season, one that the Yankees never seem to get from the likes of Roy Halladay. However, with nothing left to be determined but how many games over 100 the Yankees can win and who gets the last few spots on the postseason roster, it would have been nice to see Greinke make a start which could potentially tip which way the Cy Young voting goes.

As Joe Posnanski has seemingly taken it upon himself to prove, Greinke is having a historically great season. He currently leads the league with an absurd 2.06 ERA (213 ERA+) and 1.066 WHIP, and has struck out 237 and walked just 49 in 223 1/3 IP. He's gone fewer than six innings only four times all year, and in two of those outings, he didn't allow any runs. His six complete games are second only to Roy Halladay's 8 and both of them have 3 shutouts to their name. Basically, the only reason he hasn't won 20 games yet is because the Royals are historically inept offensively.

As Jason pointed out this morning, Greinke's ERA in his losses is just about equal to CC Sabathia's overall mark. Were he having the same type of season for the Yankees, he'd likely be headed for 25+ wins. If he doesn't get the Cy Young it will rank alongside choosing Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana - and to a lesser extent, Mariano Rivera - in 2005 in terms of recent egregious snubs.

It's too bad we won't be able to see him first hand against the Yankees.