Pay Pettitte!

As Andy Pettitte's future with the Yankees hangs in contractual limbo, it seems as though the Yankees have forgotten the value of durability in a starting pitcher. Let's look at the Yankees starting staff, in terms of probability of making at least 30 starts and rank them on a scale of 5 question marks where Roy Halliday is a "?" and Carl Pavano is a "?????".

CC Sabathia - The signing of AJ Burnett has made everyone forget about the number of Sabathia pitches Sabathia threw at the end of last year (especially on short rest), and the fact that the guy has thrown 494 regular season, and 19 postseason innings in the past two years. He's been nothing if not durable, throwing at least 192 innings in every season of his career except his first, in which he threw 180, but one has to wonder how long that will hold up.

Rating: ??

Chein Ming Wang - Wang had a freak injury running the bases last year missing about half the season, and has dealt with some fingernail issues in the past. He's a pretty good bet to take the mound every 5 days, but the apparent disrespect he has been shown by the Yanks makes you wonder if they know something we don't.

Rating: ??

AJ Burnett - Burnett has quite the intimate relationship with the disabled list, making several visits for both elbow and shoulder issues. He also has the reputation of not wanting to take the ball unless he was 100%. At the press conference announcing he and Sabathia's signings he claimed that Roy Halliday taught him to be more professional and understand his body better. But the injury history speaks for itself.

Rating: ???

Joba Chamberlain - We have the least data on Joba, but the reason he fell to the 41st pick was his injury history. He didn't have any trouble when he was used out of the bullpen in accordance with The Joba Rules, but when I think of him as a starting pitcher, I can't get the image of him grabbing his shoulder in Texas out of my mind.

Rating: ???

Phil Hughes - Aside from his stellar minor league numbers and short spurts of adequacy at the major league level, he hasn't given any indications that he can stay healthy or effecitve enough to pitch a full major league season. If he wins a spot in the rotation, you will likely see more of Ian Kennedy or Alfredo Aceves than you want to.

Rating: ????

Which brings us back to Pettitte. He has made more than 30 starts in 12 of his 14 major league seasons. Despite pitching poorly in the second half of last season, he was still able to eat innings when he didn't ahve his best stuff. Over his last 12 starts, he averaged just under 6 innings a start while giving over 4.1 runs per start (a 6.25 ERA). After Wang and Joba went down, I believe Girardi used Pettitte to take some pressure off the bullpen, knowing that whoever took the ball after him had a much smaller chance of taking them into the 6th inning or later.

As the Yankees and Pettitte stand at this impasse, they need to ask themselves if an extra $2M or $3M is really worth not bring the lefty back for. I would give him "??" on the scale used above. The top 5 starters on the Rays started 154 of their games last year. Think that had much to do with their success?

Should the Yanks sacrifice some of their rotational stability over 1% or 2% of the payroll? Not offering arbitration to Pettitte in retrospect was probably a smart move, but with the amount of money being throw around this offseason, what's a couple million between old friends?

Girly NFL Stars

Despite being stars in the manliest league on the Earth, the following NFL players often behave like women.

10. Brady Quinn. He likes boys

9. Vince Young. “Mr. Invincible” himself reminds us of that psycho girlfriend who we are better off without.

8. Bill Belichick. He cheats.

7. Reggie Bush. Always hurt, his significant other Kim Kardashian could play inside linebacker for all 32 NFL teams.

6. Jason Taylor. At least in Bill Parcells’ opinion after spending his 2008 offseason winning “Dancing With The Stars.”

5. Eli Manning. His favorite hobby is ANTIQUE SHOPPING with his mother and wife!

4. Matt Leinart. Maybe this ballroom dancing, “Desperate Housewives,” “House Bunny,” “Punk’d” actor should focus on the NFL.

3. Jeremy Shockey. Badass tattoo notwithstanding, one cannot think of Shockey without an image of him flailing his arms at refs looking for a flag after he misses an important catch. Cried his way off a Super Bowl winning team. Cries on his new team. Gets hurt for pivotal games.

2. Terrell Owens. Despite going over the middle like no other receiver in the NFL, he cries for his QB. When he doesn’t get the ball he bitches like a 16 year old who doesn’t get a new car at her Sweet 16 party.

1. Brett Favre. The NFL’s all time “Ironman” (thanks in part to Vicodin and hydrocodones) is an attention whore, drama queen and his favorite word is “maybe.”

Boras Losing Some Shimmer?

This from Kat O'Brien, via River Ave. Blues:

Even Tuesday, hours before Teixeira agreed to terms, the Yankees were pessimistic about getting the 28-year-old slugger, the source said. Boras told the Yankees they needed a 10-year deal, with the last two years as player options. That got an absolute no from the Yankees, who had offered eight years and $180 million ($22.5 million per year).

Around midday Tuesday, Boras said Teixeira would agree to an eight-year contract, but only if the average annual value was $24 million per year, making the total contract value $192 million. The Yankees conferred, then told Boras no, that they had made a fair yet firm offer and would stand pat, the source said. Boras responded by saying that Teixeira likely would be a Red Sox.

The Yankees refused to budge from their offer, and 20 minutes later, Boras called back and said Teixeira would take their eight-year, $180-million offer.

Presuming this is accurate, it seems like GMs and owners have a much better idea of Boras' hand as the negotiations are playing out. John Henry also called Boras' bluff on the higher offer which was probably the same one he was pitching to the Yanks. Last year when A-Rod opted out, no one fell for the 10 year/$333 Million deal minimum that Boras was demanding.

Especially in this economy, there are going to be fewer Tom Hickses and more John Henrys. But, could the increased fluidity of information via the internet and email also be at work here? A team is far less likely to get suckered into a deal that is way higher than the next bidder, because there is increased communication around the league and in the media (especially writer's blogs which are updated constantly), which helps set a firmer market. If everyone has access to the same information, there is bound to be a greater consensus of what a player is truly worth.

This works against Boras in trying to maintain his nearly flawless super-agent persona. He's still probably the best in the game, but the gap is closing between he and guys like Casey Close, Randy Hendricks and Arn Tellum (although Tellum isn't looking so hot after the Furcal to the Braves debacle).

Are we approaching the point where the stigma of being a Boras client outweighs the extra money that a player makes by signing with him? Probably not, but we can dream can't we?

The Wide Receiver/Lead Singer Matching Game

In honor of the previous post, I present the The Wide Receiver/Lead Singer Matching Game!


A. Randy Moss

B. Terrell Owens

C. Plaxico Burress

D. Chad Ocho Cinco

E. Michael Irvin

F. Keyshawn Johnson

G. Wes Welker

H. Chris Carter

1. Mary J. Blige

2. Aretha Franklin

3. Whitney Houston

4. Mariah Carey

5. Madonna

6. Tina Turner

7. Diana Ross

8. Cyndi Lauper

My suggestions:

A&1 – Randy Moss and Mary J. Blige - After enjoying incredible early career success, and taking some time off (Mary J. circa 2000, Randy with Oakland) both have shown a recent resurgance c/o No More Drama.

B&4 – Terrell Owens and Mariah Carey - Both spent time as the preeminent star in their discipline and both have had some pretty serious mental issues. T.O. was benched by the Eagles and Mariah was bought out by Virgin.

C&3 – Plaxico Burress and Whitney Houston - If only for Burress's game winning catch in Super Bowl XLII and Whitney's legendary rendition of the Star Spangled Banner before Super Bowl XXV. (Both in NYFBGiant victories, of course.)

D&5 – Ocho Cinco and Madonna - It takes a special kind of person to refer to yourself as a corruption of a numeral in another language or a term usually reserved for the Mother of Jesus.

E&2 – Michael Irvin and Tina Turner - Both had incredible talent and emotion but are also remembered for off-field/stage events involving drugs and violence.

F&7 – Keyshawn Johnson and Diana Ross - Both fans of interior design and touching breasts.

G&8 – Wes Welker and Cyndi Lauper - They-ah is no hah-dah warkin lead singah than Cyndi Law-pah. (Cheap shot? Yes.)

H&2 - Chris Carter and Aretha Franklin - Neither have the real negative diva connotation in hindsight comparaed to their contemporaries, but both big roles in inspiring future divas in Randy Moss and Mary J. Blige.

Who To Move

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors tells us (via Tracy Ringoslby),

The Yankees are looking to move two from a group of outfielders of Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui. The Angels, Texas, Oakland and Atlanta are considered to have interest.

8< (Snip) ((Scissors, get it? No? Fine, but I'm sticking with it anyway.))

From the emails I receive, Yankees fans would most like to see Matsui dealt. Perhaps he will be, but I believe his current trade value is negative. 34 years old, full no-trade clause, $13MM salary in '09, September knee surgery and a questionable ability to play the outfield.

First, I like the fact that they are planning on keeping Damon. He gets a bad rap because of his weak arm, but out of the attributes necessary to be a solid a left fielder, a strong throwing arm is one of the least important. To my eye, he has above average range and speed for a LF and of course brings a great deal to the table offensively.

I know that from a fans perspective Matsui would be the easiest of this bunch to part with because of his recently sketchy injury history, poor defense and presumably declining bat. Of course, other teams know this and like Tim says, combined with his high salary and the belt tightening around the league, this gives him negative trade value. He also increases the interest in the Yankees in the Pacific Rim, a factor more important to the Yankees than any team they trade him to.

Why not trade Nady, who is one year away from free agency and is unlikely to ever have a higher trade value? He's coming off of a career year in which he batted over .300 for the first time, partially due to a .363 BA/BIP in his time with Pittsburgh. Nady is in his prime and has shown consistent improvement against righties throughout his career. I just don't think Nady will repeat (or out do) last year's performance. At roughly $5 million after arbitration, Nady is affordable to almost any team. Perhaps the Yanks could turn him in a competent veteran CF, something they probably couldn't do with Swisher (coming off a bad year) or Matsui (see above).

The Demise Of Derek

Last year, Derek Jeter had far and away his worse full season offensively as a professional. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all well off his career marks and reflecting this, his counting stats are far below his averages. He only stole eleven bases, and was been caught five times.

For a shortstop who has been a defensive liability for several years, his offensive production has slipped far enough to make him just an average player. Some attributed this slack in production to a May 21st, when he got hit on the hand by Garrett Olsen, but how long can an injury serve as an excuse for meak production. The "bad habits" he's picked up should have probably corrected themselves within a few weeks of the incident.

His OPS+ was 102 and he was only about 50% successful at getting runners in from third with fewer than two outs. He grounded into 24 double plays, the most in his career and behind only Vlad Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez and Jermaine Dye. Somehow, he is both walking and striking out less.

That's what the numbers tell me. My recollection of watching games this past year tells me that he was less patient at the plate, swinging at the first pitch too frequently, and fouling off more of the balls he used to put in play, and making weaker contact on the balls he used to drive.

In a subjective recall, double plays also stand out, not only because they make two outs and erase a hit, but they also kill the mythological "momentum". Similarly, getting runners in from third leave a perceived gimme run on base. These are the kind of stats that fans overvalue. How long is it going to take before fans start turning on Jeter? I know he is the ultimate Teflon Man, for the all reasons that we are all too familiar with. But Bernie Williams, also a homegrown Yankee, here for all of the World Series Championships in the late 90's/2000, former batting champion, World Series MVP, Four Time Gold Glove winner, and a "True Yankee" still saw the fans and the organization turn on him when his power went away and his GIDP's weren't balanced out by the rest of his offensive contributions.

Jeter will make $20 and $21 million over the next two years, respectively. The Yankees decision to backload the contract has left the door open for the media to remark on his lack of productivity in relation to his salary. No question Jeter has been worth the value over the length of the contract, given his value to the club extends beyond the field. I'm not talking about intangibles, but about the marketability he adds to the Yankees. He is a major reason ESPN covers the Yankees so closely, and his gravitas keeps him and the Yankees on the back covers in New York. Jeter and A-Rod, account for the vast majority of the Yankees star power.

After 2010, the organization might have quite the quandary on its hands. Jeter seemingly refuses to acknowledge the erosion of his skills, especially defensively. He's said he doesn't want to move from shortstop, which is okay, in one respect, because aside from catcher, it has the highest tolerance for a below average offensive player. However his defensive skills continue to slide, at a valuable defensive position. In a perfect world, he could switch to center field this coming year, replacing the Melky/Gardner shit burger/poo sandwich combo, and holding the place for Austin Jackson. Of course that would require that the Yankees acquire someone who was significantly superior defensively than Jeter (and serviceable offensively), and there aren't an obvious options that wouldn't require significant sacrifice.

The only somewhat possible target would be Yunel Escobar, who the Braves have shown a willingness to move this off season in a possible Jake Peavy deal. The Yanks could open the door to negations involving Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady, both of whom the Braves have some interest in, and then gauge interest in expanding the deal. They would have to provide an elite level package, something along the lines of Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson and either Swish or X. Not likely at all, but I would have no problem giving up that sort of a package for a young, slick fielding starting shortstop that could hold down the position and hit competently for yers to come.

I've heard people speculate that before Derek Jeter's career is over, he might amass more than 4,000 hits. He currently has 2,535, still 465 short of 3,000. He certainly won't be there by the time his contract expires in 2010. Will the Yankees give him a sweetheart, lifetime achievement contract if he continues to decline? They didn't with Bernie, and although their star status is not comprable, the decision making may be similar, considering the will likely occur in the Brain Cashman Era. Will there be a Brett Farve "player wants to come back but team wants to move on" scenario? Doubtful, but if Jeter wants a contract based on his previous one and past accomplishments and the Yankees want one that more closely reflects his current value as a player, they might find it hard to come together.

I Spy

So the Yankees signed Kevin Cash to play the role of this year's Chad Moeller, a third option behind Molina and Posada who will spend most of the time in AAA ball.

Interesting. The 31 year old catcher, aside from having a sweet middle name (Forrest), is quite a terrible hitter. In 142 ABs with the Sox last year, he had an OPS of .647. He has a major league career OPS+ of 38, which makes Melky Cabrera look like Willie Mays.

So why would the Yanks want this guy? Why not steal a backstop from an NL Central team? Well I think the one fairly obvious thing that Cash brings to the table is an intimate knowledge of Boston's pitching staff. In the spirit of constant oneupmanship that exists between New York and Boston, the clear motivation for this is... espionage!

All-In

Well then...

The Mark Teixiera signing was a rather shocking development, wasn't it? When someone like Peter Abraham was saying things like "Forget about Mark Teixeira. It’s obvious he is going to get a long-term deal from the Angels, Orioles or Red Sox." on 12/16, you tend to greet all rumors pertaining to said first baseman coming to the Yankees with a jaundiced eye. Not to knock Pete specifically (since I think he and Joel Sherman are the best two Yankee-centric writers out there) because pretty much nobody saw this coming.

With this eleventh hour coup orchestrated by Cashman, the Yanks made the move any team would have if money didn't matter. They had an obvious Mark Teixiera-shaped hole at the #1 bag, and although Boston was more visibly involved in the negotiations, they didn't have the same need.

The Sox would have had to shift a guy who just finished third in the MVP vote (and was the inspiration for the name of this blog) from first to third base, thus displacing a former World Series MVP who is owed $12M in both of the next two years. In this economy, what team is going to want to acquire a third baseman making that kind of money in his age 35 and 36 seasons?

The Yanks were shedding a hulking amount of their payroll and moving into a virulently profitable new stadium. Still, could you really have assumed that in this market, the Yanks would have signed the top three free agents to deals totaling 423,500,000? If only for the sake of nationwide PR, I assumed they would have abstained and prevented comments like "The Yankees are spending this kind of money in this economy?"

In the grand scheme of things, sure, you want to be liked by everybody. But what real harm does it do the Yankees, and the MLB in general, to have a huge major it of big names and salaries congregated on the same team? Obviously there are the Luxury Tax and Revenue Sharing, both of which are going to take some of the money the Yanks are making, and distribute it to the smaller market franchises. In addition, the Yanks road attendance will increase, with more fans rooting for and against them will come out to the ballpark.

To the people who say this is bad for baseball: Why? Does the Yankees spending more money result in people in Kansas City liking their team less? Are fans going to avoid going to games that the Yanks play in protest against their extravagant spending? I really don't think so. Quite the opposite, probably.

There are certainly reasons to not like this deal. It's long andn expensive, and takes up a defensive position that could be manned by aging players, which the Yankees have plenty of. On the surface, it might make you feel guilty as a fan to some degree. But the real downside is that it devalues a championship. When a team is the odds-on favorite from the beginning of the season primarily because of their off-season splurges and all the analysts are predicting them to win, what fun is it? They team will have the weight of the world on their shoulders and will have to win when they are expected to, which is not an easy thing to do (unless you are Tiger Woods).

If the Yankees win a World Series in 2009, there is no way it will be as satisfying as the NYFBGiants coming out of nowhere in 2007-8 and snatching the title away from the Patriots. You can point to great management, savvy drafting and player development as critical factors in the Giants Super Bowl run, but if the Yanks do actually win a WS in the next few years, the most commonly cited contributing influence will be their financial advantage over the rest of the league. People will conveniently forget that over the last 8 years, the Yanks have been to only two World Series and lost both.

The Yanks have basically pushed all-in. They may have even gone to their suit pockets and pulled out some more cash they the other players at the table didn't know they had in play. If they don't win a World Series in the next two or three years, this off season will have been a spectacular failure. The Yanks have already spend well over a billion dollars since their last World Series. If they don't win this year there will be no shortage of "you can't just buy championships" sentiment. The pundits will ask why CC and A-Rod can't get it done under pressure and what sort of chemistry issues were at play in the clubhouse, stealthily submarining any chance for playoff success.

As Craig at Shysterball and others have said, the Yanks pay for the ability to avoid even short stretches of not being competitive. Their fan base now expects them to be better than just competitive every single year, and by extending contracts that are obviously too long to top free agents, they are able to secure the most desirable players on the open market. The only thing a salaray cap would accomplish is limiting the amount of money players make and keeping that money in the pockets of owners.

The Yankees have to pay the triple barrelled cost of salary+luxury tax+revenue sharing, but still want to provide the best possible product on the field for the fans. Take it away, Randy Levine, “We are sensitive to the economic times and our fans. We believe it is good for the franchise and good for the fans to put the best product possible on the field, and that is what we strive to do.”

So, you might hate the Yankees for their conspicuous consumption in these uncertain times, but the real crime would have been if the Steinbrenners decided to sock away all that money and not re-invest in the team like so many other baseball owners do.

Dilemma

Watching the two ALDS unfold last night, I was hoping against hope that at least one of the non-AL East teams would extend the series to a decisive fifth game. After Reggie Willits (VP of the Bubba Crosby Society) got busted on the now infamous failed suicide squeeze, Yanks fans had to come to terms with this horrific scenario. One of our division rivals is going to the World Series where they'll take on a weaker National League opponent with home field advantage (won at Yankee Stadium). The question is, since you have to see one of them win, which would you rather it was?

The Rays:
If the Rays make it to, and win the World Series, it will legitimize them as a franchise. They inevitably will draw more fans and come closer to a new greater-revenue-generating ballpark. Unless they go the way of the Marlins and firebomb their franchise immediately after winning a championship (which they won’t) they will be, at the very least, a thorn in the Yankees side for years to come. They have a solid core of young players, and more developing in their farm system. Nothing breeds winning like winning, and the confidence of hoisting that World Series Trophy would ripple down throughout a franchise that has typically been an embarrassment ever since its inception.

The Red Sox:
If the Red Sox win another World Series, it would be the 3rd in 5 years, beginning to challenge the Yankees dynastic run of the late 1990's and 2000. Could you stomach seeing Jonathan Pappelsmear, Varitek, Kevin "Fack" Youkilis, Ellsbury, Pedroia and all the other fucktastic prickfaces on the Red Sox in another champagne soaked celebration? With every success, 2004 hurts more and more, wondering where these two franchises would be if the Yanks could have closed the door on one of those 4 games.


The Verdict:
Emotionally, the Rays victory would be easier to swallow. They are slightly more likeable and it would give me perverse pleasure to see The Trop’ filled with the opposing team’s fans in the World Series and read articles about how it was the lowest rated World Series of all time. I can’t root for the Red Sox, regardless of the situation.

However, thinking about the big picture, the Red Sox would be the better representative of the AL East in the Yankees eyes. Let’s face it., the Red Sox aren’t going anywhere. They are an excellent team with a solid farm system. They have a great mix of veterans and youngsters, solid pitching and a great front office. The Rays could be a fluke.

The Yankees have become comfortable with the power structure that has existed in the AL East for the past decade or so. The Yanks and Sox are king, while some other team puts up a half-assed effort and never really challenges for the Division Title. This leaves the weaker of the Big Two to back into the Wild Card and take a crack at a Postseason run. If the Rays win, this dynamic could be in serious jeopardy, with three teams having a great shot to make the Postseason. I’d bet Brain Cashman is rooting for the Red Sox.