tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post5595810439347681732..comments2023-09-19T11:52:32.730-04:00Comments on Fack Youk: He Also Picked Mickey Rourke...Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04839022142066882411noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-13491585502183765792009-02-25T23:51:00.000-05:002009-02-25T23:51:00.000-05:00"However, the flaw in using this methodology is th...<I>"However, the flaw in using this methodology is that it becomes impossible to predict when someone will do unprecedented things. Simply put, how is analyzing 20 guys, none of whom is the career home run leader, ever going to result in the simulation predicting A-Rod will break the all-time record?"</I><BR/><BR/>I think that this is the crux of the issue. <BR/><BR/>Let's say that we have a White Bonerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05745983403055912381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-29683272463478081182009-02-25T16:30:00.000-05:002009-02-25T16:30:00.000-05:00The other problem in comparing to Aaron's late 30s...The other problem in comparing to Aaron's late 30s power surge is that it was very much influenced by the Braves move into the homer-friendly confines of Fulton County stadium, IIRC.dstrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08614031836438091026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-45781157379640403812009-02-25T14:59:00.000-05:002009-02-25T14:59:00.000-05:00Damn, 68 homers is a pretty good over/under bet ov...Damn, 68 homers is a pretty good over/under bet over the next two seasons. I'd lean over, but I'm really curious to see how he handles this season after all this PED nonsense.scatterbrianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11932644600001726888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-66983949759879952062009-02-25T14:42:00.000-05:002009-02-25T14:42:00.000-05:00BillP - I know PETCOA projects a few years into th...BillP - I know PETCOA projects a few years into the future, but the unique part of the pursuit of a record is that you are by nature outside of previous accomplishments. Like scatterbrian said "It seems futile to attempt projecting a career that is an outlier".<BR/><BR/>The fact that they haven't been able to forecast Ichiro accurately would serve that point as well.<BR/><BR/>I'd be down for a Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04839022142066882411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-60751289119494382652009-02-25T14:27:00.000-05:002009-02-25T14:27:00.000-05:00It seems futile to attempt projecting a career tha...It seems futile to attempt projecting a career that is an outlier. Rodriguez had 91 extra-base hits in his age-20 season, so we're dealing with a pretty rare player as it is. (DiMaggio and Pujols each had 89 in their age-21 seasons.) Using guys like Grich, Caminiti and Sandberg as comps doesn't seem fair to Rodriguez. Combined those three have only four seasons with 30+ homers. Rodriguez has hit scatterbrianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11932644600001726888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-6573091036128542942009-02-25T13:24:00.000-05:002009-02-25T13:24:00.000-05:00PECOTA has always (or at least for several years n...PECOTA has always (or at least for several years now) projected several years into the future, and as far as I can tell has been about as good as one would expect at that, too. The one thing (among those things we can reasonably expect a forecasting system to do) that PECOTA doesn't seem to be good at at all is Ichiro--it will apparently keep predicting that he's going to fall off a cliff until Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07840958382433052735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-19495446772656895792009-02-25T13:10:00.000-05:002009-02-25T13:10:00.000-05:00BillP - PETCOA is much better than people's guesse...BillP - PETCOA is much better than people's guesses in most cases, but to my knowledge it hasn't been used to project anyone on the path to an all-time record for an individual stat. It was excellent last year at predicting teams records, but I just don't think the methodology makes sense. <BR/><BR/>A-Rod was the fastest player ever to 500HR, so I don't think it would be all that silly to think Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04839022142066882411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-89248011708879445792009-02-25T12:52:00.000-05:002009-02-25T12:52:00.000-05:00PECOTA also ends up much *better* than most people...PECOTA also ends up much *better* than most people's ballpark guesses. Anon up there is exactly right--the whole point of projection systems is to point us toward the most likely future outcomes based on what has tended to happen in the past. It seems as though you're saying the fact that it does exactly that is a "flaw." <BR/><BR/>It would be incredibly silly for it to compare him to Hank Aaron Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07840958382433052735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-25570316782621478872009-02-25T12:07:00.000-05:002009-02-25T12:07:00.000-05:00Anon - Fair point that putting in random spikes an...Anon - Fair point that putting in random spikes and declines wouldn't make it more credible. But if you are always assuming a decline, doesn't that skew the projection downward? If it starts at 33, that is his highest total going forward? Seems unlikely. I'm not saying start at 55 either, but I think that's a major reason why PETCOA ends up lower than most people's ballpark guesses.<BR/><BR/>It Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04839022142066882411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-2339963440397976462009-02-25T11:55:00.000-05:002009-02-25T11:55:00.000-05:00Hey man, this is my first time visiting your site ...Hey man, this is my first time visiting your site (coming from Rob Neyer's blog), but you should probably go back to stats 101. <BR/>I agree with you that the methodology used for the projection is kind of suspicious but the fact that according to the projection he is going to "gradually slide into oblivion" is not a good reason to say that the projection is flawed. It's a projection after all, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1256268100133425608.post-14723669553195118362009-02-25T09:36:00.000-05:002009-02-25T09:36:00.000-05:00PECOTA comparables aren't supposed to be used as a...PECOTA comparables aren't supposed to be used as a comparison of player's careers, but, rather, a comparison of where each player was at similar stages of their careers. <BR/><BR/>Take a look at his top 5 comparables age 32-34 seasons, and you'll see the relevance you're looking for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com